The 95% probability/certainty of global warming being due to human activity is based on a show of hands and not on any evidence or statistical analysis of data. What it actually says is that 95% of all global warming believers, believe.
Late last night the IPCC delegates in Stockholm were still messing around preparing their 30 page political summary of their AR5 report to be released today.
The political summary of AR5 is primarily a CYA effort to protect the posteriors of the policy makers (mainly political figures, bureaucrats and activists) in the face of a long row of broken models and broken hypotheses. The IPCC has forgotten that natural variability is a euphemism for unknown mechanisms which cannot be calculated or predicted. It is going to be interesting to see just how the summary report will cover-up, deny or ignore the long string of inconvenient facts:
- Global temperatures have not risen for 17-18 years while CO2 has kept on increasing.
- Global temperatures have been declining for the last 11 years.
- None of the IPCC’s computer models have predicted the warming hiatus or the cooling over the last decade.
- Global wildfires are lower than normal.
- Rainfall patterns (and the Indian monsoon) continue within the bounds of known natural variability.
- Food and grain production is at an all-time high.
- Flood frequency and flood levels have not been at unprecedented levels. Just more people live in flood-plains today than before.
- CO2 in the atmosphere reached the magic level of 400 ppm (albeit for just a few hours) and nothing happened.
- How much of the CO2 concentration increase is due to carbon dioxide from fossil fuel. combustion is unclear but fossil fuel emissions are only 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
- The absorption and release of carbon dioxide by the oceans is unknown and the error margin is greater than the total amount released by fossil fuels.
- CO2 absorption mechanisms do not care where the CO2 being absorbed came from.
- The sensitivity of global temperature to CO2 concentration has been grossly exaggerated by the computer models.
- Carbon dioxide concentration is more likely to follow global temperature (due to subsequent changes in emission and absorption rates) than to lead it.
- Sea ice levels are increasing at both poles with the Antarctic at record high levels.
- Polar bear populations are thriving and increasing.
- Sea levels are continuing to rise at just the historical levels due to the recovery from the last glacial and are not accelerating due to industrialisation or the use of fossil fuels.
- Oceans are still strongly alkaline and any increase in acidity is within known natural variability.
- Coral reefs have shown themselves to be self-healing when damaged and are not showing any signs of ocean acidification.
- Climate models have grossly underestimated solar effects because the mechanisms are unknown.
- Sunspot activity in SC24 is well down from SC 23 and is not unlike the period of the dalton minimum during SC5 and SC6.
- Clouds and moisture in the atmosphere have a much bigger impact on global warming and cooling than CO2 in the atmosphere.
- Cloud formation is linked to sunspot activity and cosmic rays.
- Global warming and cooling follow solar effects via the oceans in long decadal cycles.
- The number of hurricanes and tornadoes are at historically low levels.
- Heat released from the earth’s interior by tectonic and volcanic activity is not known.
- A Little Ice Age is more likely than further Global Warming and a global cooling cycle lasting 20-30 years may have begun.
- This interglacial is due (within c. 1000 years) to come to an end.
There is more we don’t know that we don’t know about the climate than the IPCC would like to admit. And for policy makers, activists and bureaucrats who have followed misguided policies for the last 25 years it is no longer possible to admit that they have been making “certain” predictions in an ocean of uncertainty. They have replaced scientific objectivity by “consensus science” where the validity of a hypothesis is based on how many believe and not on evidence. The 95% probability/certainty of global warming being due to human activity being touted by the IPCC is based on a show of hands of believers, and not on any evidence or statistical analysis of data.