UPDATE – 8th October
(The Physiology / Medicine awards are to be announced today)
The 2012 Thomson Reuters predictions are here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/idUS36510+19-Sep-2012+HUG20120919
Every year around this time with about a month to go before the awards are announced the predictions and speculation begin about potential Nobel prize laureates. I don’t believe there is as much lobbying / marketing involved in the Nobel speculations as for the Oscars – but certainly some institutions and laboratories do try – much earlier in the year – to get some appropriate publicity for “their candidate”. This year the CERN publicity machine – which made much ado about their discovery – or not – of the Higgs boson – has been in full swing. Perhaps the hype was just to ensure funding but I am sure the possibility of a Nobel was not very far from their thoughts.
The prize awarding institutions have set the following dates for their announcements of 2012 prize decisions:
PHYSIOLOGY OR MEDICINE– Monday 8 October, 11:30 a.m. at the earliest
PHYSICS – Tuesday 9 October, 11:45 a.m. at the earliest
CHEMISTRY – Wednesday 10 October, 11:45 at the earliest
PEACE – Friday 12 October, 11:00 a.m.
ECONOMIC SCIENCES – Monday 15 October, 1:00 p.m. at the earliest
LITERATURE – The date will be set later
The Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates will probably be announced in another 10 days or so.
Each year, Thomson Reuters uses data from its research solution, Web of Knowledge™, to quantitatively determine the most influential researchers in the Nobel categories of Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Economics. Based on a thorough review of citations to their works, the company names these high-impact researchers as Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates and predicts them to be Nobel Prize winners, either this year or in the near future.
Thomson Reuters is the only organization to use quantitative data to make annual predictions of Nobel Prize winners. Since 2002, 21 Citation Laureates have gone on to win Nobel Prizes.
A few of the early predictions are out in the blogosphere: