Computer models are only models – and subject to common sense

Once again the blind belief in computer models has closed down parts of European air space. Observations and measurements are given less weight than computer models which are at best crude approximations of a chaotic system. The unthinking belief in approximations to reality merely because they are generated by computer models denies the sapience in homo sapiens!!

BBC:

Most flights have resumed across the UK after a day that saw thousands of passengers affected by an ash cloud from the erupting Icelandic volcano. Air traffic control company Nats said harmful concentrations of ash dispersed from UK airspace overnight. But some flights within the UK and a number to Germany will be cancelled.

As one blogger puts it:

Airline managers are complaining that last year, officials did not do enough to check the actual conditions in the air, instead relying too heavily on computer models showing where the ash was supposed to be. Yet, despite the experience, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is saying that it is “astonishing and unacceptable” that a British aircraft that is supposed to check actual conditions has been unable to fly.

The disruption arises in part from “volatile winds” which are said to be carrying clouds of volcanic ash down from Iceland over the northern British Isles. But those same winds which caused the rough weather yesterday must also have dispersed the ash.

Without real data, however, forecasters are unable to provide accurate information on ash density and particle size, relying instead on weather patterns and computer modelling to give a rough approximation of conditions. And, with no clear guidance as to closure rules, the only significant difference between this year and last is that the weather conditions are more changeable, allowing more favourable estimates of ash dispersion to be made.


Climate Realists: We know that the Met Office doesn’t bother much with evidence, witness Prof John Mitchell’s unguarded remarks at the Downing College Conference:

People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful,… Our approach is not entirely empirical.

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One Response to “Computer models are only models – and subject to common sense”

  1. Computer models are only models – and subject to common sense (via The k2p blog) « Calgary Recreational and Ultralight Flying Club (CRUFC) Says:

    […] May 25, 2011 by bikeal Leave a Comment Once again the blind belief in computer models has closed down parts of European air space. Observations and measurements are given less weight than computer models which are at best crude approximations of a chaotic system. The unthinking belief in approximations to reality merely because they are generated by computer models denies the sapience in homo sapiens!! BBC: Most flights have resumed across the UK after a day that saw thousands of pass … Read More […]

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