The k2p blog

A new paper again confirming that the theory that carbon dioxide leads global temperature is misconceived.

” Changes in global atmospheric CO₂ are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. CO₂ released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO_2.” 

The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

by Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl, Jan-Erik Solheim, Global and Planetary Change

Abstract

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO₂variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO₂, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO₂. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO₂ data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO₂, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO₂ always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO₂ and temperature is found for CO₂ lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Highlights

Tags: carbon dioxide, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, climate

This entry was posted on September 3, 2012 at 10:24 am and is filed under Climate, Science. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.