In transit with the Indian monsoon

I have been traveling this week on an assignment .

Today the monsoon rains reached Delhi –  about 7 days later than the long term average but not an unusual occurrence. A quarter of the 4 month monsoon season is over and so far there is a heavy shortfall in the rainfall received.

Rainfall in July will be crucial in determining whether this monsoon will turn out to be a “bad” one or just somewhat “low”. The risk of this year being a super El Niño year has reduced and with it the risk of a disastrous monsoon has also declined. Nevertheless contingency plans for a “bad” monsoon are being prepared.

Conventional wisdom is that the difference between a good monsoon and a bad one is about 2% points for GDP.


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