The “European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action” (Euromomo) publishes weekly mortality statistics across 24 countries of the EU.
“Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries”.
European mortality bulletin week 12, 2020
Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.
Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality in Europe.
The number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.
Note concerning COVID-19 related mortality as part of the all-cause mortality figures reported by EuroMOMO
Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.
The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.
Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19.
source: Euromomo Bulletin week 12
As of now Euromomo does not have any explanation. The data does not yet show that Covid-19 has contributed any significant increase to the total, all-causes deaths which may even be showing a small decrease.
It could be that the lockdowns are preventing other more usual viral infections and other deaths from occurring.
First seen at Roy Spencer’s blog.
Tags: coronavirus, covid-19
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