Vaccination priorities – Get the spreaders first

My perception is that the main spreaders of Covid-19 are those between 20 and about 40 years old. Among this group there are some super-spreaders. It is said that the 80/20 rule applies and around 20% of those infected have infected the other 80%. The most number of deaths are among the old (>70) and especially the old in care homes (>80). The highest risk of death is for those having other complicating conditions.

Most countries seem to be setting vaccination priorities as follows:

  1. health care workers
  2. elderly people
  3. people with complicating conditions
  4. general population over 15 years old

It seems to me that the priority should be, after protecting health and care home workers, to vaccinate those between 20 and 40 years old. The old do not spread the virus and their mobility is so limited that infection is always brought in to them. Those in care homes have no mobility to speak of. Their best protection is if those taking care of them are vaccinated and if all their visitors are vaccinated rather than in being vaccinated themselves. Moreover it is the 20 – 60 year old who keep the economies going.

It is a question of attack or defense. Availability of vaccines gives the possibility of attack. Do you put armour on those inside the besieged castle or do you put a stop to the marauding invaders as they get off their boats?  To put an end to the pandemic needs that the spreaders be stopped rather than putting armour on the besieged. After a year of cowering in our homes it is time to go on the offensive. It seems that the priorities for vaccination should be:

  1. health care and care home workers
  2. all between 20 and 40 years old
  3. those with complicating conditions of whatever age
  4. the general population between 40 and 70
  5. the population over 70

Of course this will not be politically correct, and since I am over 70 this would push me down the vaccination priority list. But it will be rational and much more effective in ending the pandemic.


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