Czar Vladimir invades Ukraine ….

And so it starts again….

People will die and borders will be redrawn. Where will it end? Hopefully not in a World War. Hopefully not in the use of battlefield nuclear weapons. But it could go there.

Vladimir Putin has more far-reaching and effective powers than any Czar in Russia ever had. Whether history will see him as Vladimir the Great or Vlad the Invader remains for the future to reveal.

An expansionist Czar? Partially but not entirely. A colonising Russia? Partially but not entirely. A response to NATO expansionism? Certainly but not entirely. A response to EU expansionism? Certainly but not entirely. Fuelled by a perception of US weakness? Very probably. Encouraged by Biden’s risk aversion? Certainly.

The lack of long-term response from the West to the annexation of the Crimea is probably a central part of the calculations. The Russian calculations are also probably that the US, NATO and the EU can do little more than enact sanctions and perhaps carry out a cyber war. Russian gas becomes a weapon in Russian hands only when winter comes to Germany at the end of 2022. I expect that Russian cyber attacks on Western institutions could well start soon

The Czar’s objective. Probably an Eastern Ukraine embedded within Greater Russia.

A minor incursion?


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