The k2p blog

Update: February 18th 0700 CET

http://www.spaceweather.com/

A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field at approximately 0100 UT on Feb. 18th (8:00 pm EST on Feb. 17th). The impact was not as strong as expected considering the cloud’s X-class origin.

Solar Cycle 24 is generally exhibiting a very low level of activity but the sun occasionally does flex its muscles just to show what it is capable of.

http://solarcycle24.com/

Geomagnetic Storm Watch – From the Space Weather Prediction Center: February 16, 2011 — The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

February 17, 2011 — The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening’s R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours. Back at the Sun, Region 1158 is still hot and fast-growing, Region 1161 is producing small flares.

image NOAA

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Feb 16 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.

Tags: Coronal mass ejection, Solar Cycle 24, Solar flare, Sun

This entry was posted on February 17, 2011 at 11:10 pm and is filed under Science, Solar science. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.