UK Met office reported to be predicting a new little ice age!!

This report in GWPF where the UK Met Office is said to predicting a return of a little ice age is said to be based on a piece by Jonathan Leake in today’s Sunday Times (which I no longer read or access ever since they starting hiding behind a pay-wall). Somewhat surprising since it supports what I think is happening with our climate and especially since the Met Office, Nature, Jonathan Leake and the Sunday Times are all strong believers in the anthropogenic global warming orthodoxy.

Frost Fair on the Thames 1683-84 by Thomas Wyke. During the Great Frost of 1683–84, the worst frost recorded in England, the Thames was completely frozen for two months: wikipedia

Met Office U-Turn: Europe May be Facing Return Of ‘Little Ice Age’

Britain should brace itself for another freezing winter with the return of La Niña, a climate phenomenon known to disrupt global weather, ministers have warned.

La Niña, in which cold water piles up in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is linked to extreme winter weather in America. Some suggest that last year’s strong La Niña was linked to Britain’s icy winter, one of the coldest on record. The connection between La Niña and weather in Europe is scientifically uncertain but ministers have told transport organisations and emergency services to take no chances.

The warning coincides with research from the Met Office suggesting Europe could be facing a return of the “little ice age” that gripped Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters. The prediction, to be published in Nature, is based on observations showing a slight fall in the sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation, which over a long period may trigger mini ice ages in Europe.

Some sort of confirmation is in this post here which quotes the same article but is equally incredulous about the U-turn by the Met Office:

Met Office Research Suggests Return of The Little Ice Age?

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5 Responses to “UK Met office reported to be predicting a new little ice age!!”

  1. Durotrigan Says:

    If we do have another harsh winter, I’ll be pleased as I enjoy the snow.

    As you note, the UK press are getting quite excited about the story in today’s Sunday Times as well as the Exacta Weather chilly forecast for the coming winter season. We now have advocates of the new ‘little ice age’ clashing with those supporting the concept of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. What is for certain is that there are many players in the debate who use the pretext of global warming for their own political or corporate ends. Here in the UK, the Government uses it as justification for increasing taxes on gas, electricity and petrol and for increasing overseas aid whilst cutting domestic spending. Conversely, the oil industry funds the opponents of global warming for very obvious reasons.

    Meteorology has made great strides in recent years with respect to forecasting up to about five days ahead, but beyond that, the weather and climate system is simply too complex to be modelled fully. More here: http://durotrigan.blogspot.com/2011/10/uk-winter-forecast-2011-2012-blowing.html

  2. New papers confirm solar effects could bring on little ice ages « The k2p blog Says:

    […] The k2p blog knowledge to people Just another WordPress.com weblog « UK Met office reported to be predicting a new little ice age!! […]

  3. Jonathan Leake Says:

    From Jonathan Leake
    Thanks to those who have commented on this article. However, there appears to be a common misunderstanding. This article is not about anthropogenic climate change. The phenomena mentioned in this article are natural and separate from climate change. They operate in parallel to climate change, in parallel to each other but, of course, each on very different time scales.
    La Nina, for example, is really about weather. It’s part of a relatively short term natural cycle operating over periods of a few years.
    It’s just one of many factors which together mean that weather is constantly showing a high level of variability. In other words, getting a cold winter or two does not tell us anything about climate change. It just tells us that weather changes a lot – which we already know.
    Similarly, the research in Nature Geoscience about the changes in solar radiation, is also nothing to do with climate change. It’s an entirely separate effect happening in parallel. Scientists think its part of a 3-400 year cycle of changes in UV radiation. There’s a good article here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065
    and the original is here
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1282.html
    It’s interesting to wonder if it will mitigate or amplify the effects of greenhouse gas emissions but I suspect no-one really knows yet.
    The key point is that short term changes in the weather and long term changes in the climate are both driven by a complex mix of variables. Working out the most likely future trends is hard and takes long-term dedicated science. Reducing it all to an argument to undermine climate change misses the real point which is that we should be trying to use the best science to assess just how much of a problem all these effects really present to an increasingly crowded and interconnected world.
    The science suggesting that the Earth faces significant warming remains very strong. If you disagree then you need good science to back your case. These other phenomena (La Nina, UV radiation etc) are simply not relevant.
    Jonathan Leake

    • ktwop Says:

      The sun cannot be selectively and arbitrarily invoked for weather and just ignored for climate (merely because it is not understood fully).
      There is no scientific case for the effect of carbon dioxide having any significant effect on climate let alone the man-made portion of carbon dioxide.

  4. New papers confirm solar effects could bring on little ice ages | The GOLDEN RULE Says:

    […] UK Met office research referred to in yesterday’s Sunday Times article might well refer to this paper in Nature Geoscience published online yesterday which makes the […]

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