The conventional wisdom is that if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, Hillary Clinton will wipe the floor with him. But a few weeks ago I thought that, like the Democrats for Reagan, we might see a similar phenomenon of Democrats for Trump. I saw immigration in the US and the consequent fears of many white Democrats together with the dynamics between different minority groups as being the possible driver for generating these cross-over voters. I wrote then:
Latinos are incensed at Trump’s comments about immigration, but quite like his hard line about Islamic terrorists. East European immigrants are also attracted to this hard line about both Mexican illegal immigrants and Muslim terrorists. Asian immigrants can be split generally into two groups; Muslims mainly from Islamic countries and non-Muslims. Many of the non-Muslims feel threatened by the Islamisation of their communities and the insidious, creeping encroachment of – and perceived silent surrender to – Sharia Law. A large portion of the Asian communities are not comfortable with the influx of illegal, Latino immigrants. ………. Even the black Muslims feel under threat from all the “new Muslims”, since they come quite low down in the hierarchy of “true Muslims”. Normally the bulk of the immigrant population in the US would be Democratic supporters, but Trump is tapping into some of their greatest fears of other immigrant groups. There is also – I think – a large section of the white, middle-class Democratic support which is inhibited from expressing its fears of immigration and Islamisation and are suddenly quite glad that these fears are being expressed by somebody – even if it is only a Trump.
A new survey suggests that such a scenario is not entirely fantasy and there may well be substance to the existence of a “Democrats for Trump”. The poll indicates that 20% of Democratic voters could cross-over to Trump. If my memory serves many of the Democrats for Reagan were “secret” and never actually admitted that they would vote for Reagan. I suspect that the “secret” Democrats for Trump could be a larger proportion even than for Reagan. And I suspect that Trump is not as unacceptable for well-established minority groups as the media assume.
So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct? A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn’t be a cakewalk.
The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” ……. Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they’d cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.
That Trump is not quite the pariah with Democratic voters as the media seek to portray is also shown by this Reuters/IPSOS poll which has Trump matching Clinton if they were to be pitted against each other
Reuters: In a hypothetical head-to-head race, the real-estate tycoon and TV personality would be supported by 39 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 40 percent for Clinton, according to the latest 5-day average from Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
The driving issue is likely to be immigration all through 2016. The recent New Years eve rampage of male, “refugee”, Muslim youths in Germany, the politically correct silence by the media about it until forced, and similar behaviour in Finland and the UK and in Scandinavia, only play into Trump’s narrative. Every atrocity committed by ISIS begs the question as to why the male, unaccompanied youths who are seeking refugee status in Europe or North America, are not fighting against ISIS in their own countries?