The k2p blog

Good news for the Indian monsoon

The Indian Meteorological Department has increased their rainfall forecast from being 98% of normal to being 102% of normal because of the La Nina conditions developing from the cooling of  the Central Pacific. The monsoon is expected to be “on time” and Northern India will get some relief from the sweltering temperatures they have been suffering.

Development of La Nina will also lead to global temperatures continuing to show the decline which has been apparent for the last decade.

The monsoon is formally defined to last for the 4 months of June to September every year and the onset and progress of the northern front of the monsoon is closely watched and can have a major impact. Even though the Indian economy is not as vulnerable to bad monsoons as it used to be, the importance of the monsoon to agriculture (and therefore also to related industries such as fertilisers, pesticides,pumps and even tractors) means that the difference between a “good” monsoon and a “bad” monsoon can be as much as 2% of annual GDP.

‘‘The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate continued and rapid cooling of the equatorial Pacific to below La Nina threshholds. There is a very high probablity (about 60%) for the La Nina conditions to develop during the monsoon season, which favours stronger than normal monsoon,’’ said IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi.

(photo credit: worldslatestnews.com/…/)

La Nina is also expected to bring more rain to Australia.

While La Nina will be welcomed in India and may disrupt the Ashes Tests in Australia it is not good news for the soya bean crops in Brazil.

Tags: Australia, Economy, global cooling, India, La Nina, Monsoon

This entry was posted on June 26, 2010 at 5:53 am and is filed under Business, Environment, India, Science. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.