An active Sunday for the Sun

An unusually active Sunday for the Sun yesterday mainly from the very large sunspot 1158 with magnetic flux values not seen since 2006.


Solar Flares: Mutiple Solar flares took place around Sprawling Sunspot 1158 on Sunday, including an M6.6 Flare which was the 2nd largest of Cycle 24 thus far.  ….. . There will continue to be a chance for M-Class flares and NOAA also lists a 5% chance for an X-Class event.

Solar Flux 107: For the first time in Cycle 24, the official daily solar flux number measured in Penticton, BC closed above 100. The solar flux of 107 is the highest since September 2005. The last time the solar flux finished above 100 was in December 2006.

Solar Update: Huge sunspot 1158 which is located in the southern hemisphere will continue to be a threat for strong solar flares. Elsewhere, Sunspot 1157 which is in the northern hemisphere showed growth late on Sunday and Sunspot 1160 which rotated into view on the eastern limb has sprouted a few new spots as well. The M6.6 Solar Flare did cause a Radio Blackout on HF which was short lived.

Sunspots (Early Monday): image

NOAA forecast:

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent major flare make this region the most likely source for a major event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region 1157 and Region 1159.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.

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