Posts Tagged ‘Solar variation’

Solar Cycle 24 has passed its maximum – 25 years of cooling to be expected in this Landscheidt minimum

October 4, 2013

The September sunspot numbers are now out and it would seem that Solar Cycle 24 has passed its maximum. It looks very much like SC23, SC24 and the coming SC25 will be comparable to SC4, 5 and 6. Solar Cycles 5 and 6 were responsible for the Dalton Minimum. SC 24 and 25 will constitute the Landscheidt Minimum and we can now expect some 25 additional years of global cooling (which has of course already started – about 6 or 7 years ago).

LSC: This month was recorded as the lowest month since Jan 2011 which was the beginning of the rampup for SC24. Cycle max is close or passed with the northern hemisphere changing polarity and the south still somewhat floundering. The southern hemisphere just outweighing the northern hemisphere, showing the south is not meeting expectations by some that a second peak will occur. … SIDC 36.9, NOAA unadjusted at 55.0 (prov). 

NASA has made its latest prediction:

SC24 prediction October 2013

SC24 prediction October 2013

The transition from SC 23 to SC 24 looks very similar to that from SC4 to SC5.

SC4-6 and Dalton

SC4-6 and Dalton

Of course the IPCC makes little of any solar effects and while the variation of direct total irradiance is small, they are rather nonchalant about the very many profound ways in which solar effects manifest themselves in climate (via cloud formation and ocean cycles for example). But the global warmists and the IPCC have now so much invested in their increasingly dubious hypothesis that they are prepared to make the most convoluted contortions to deny the hiatus and that global cooling has started.

Judith Curry: 

Section 8.4.1 of the IPCC AR5 Report provides 2 pages of discussion on observations of solar irradiance.  But they conclude that all this doesn’t matter for the climate.  I agree that the TSI RF variations are much less than projected increased forcing due to the GHG.  But the solar-climate connection is probably a lot more complex than this statement implies. …..

…. Henrik Svensmark has an essay While the Sun Sleeps, …..

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age.

It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result.

You may wonder why the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the Sun’s changing activity affects the climate. The reason is that it considers only changes in solar radiation. That would be the simplest way for the Sun to change the climate – a bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb.

Satellite measurements have shown that the variations of solar radiation are too small to explain climate change. But the panel has closed its eyes to another, much more powerful way for the Sun to affect Earth’s climate. In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the Sun – its impact on Earth’s cloud cover. High-energy accelerated particles coming from exploded stars, the cosmic rays, help to form clouds.

[C]limate scientists try to ignore this possibility.  If the Sun provoked a significant part of warming in the 20th Century, then the contribution by CO2 must necessarily be smaller.

The outcome may be that the Sun itself will demonstrate its importance for climate and so challenge the theories of global warming. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the contrary. ….




Solar Cycle 24 double peak now clearly evident

May 9, 2013

Already in March there were signs that this Solar Cycle 24 would exibit a double peak. NASA’s latest sunspot prediction for Solar Cycle 24 as of 1st May 2013 clearly shows that the sunspot activity is into its “double peak for this Cycle. A double peak was also evident in Cycles 22 and 23 and also in Cycles 5 and 14. The levels for SC24 are still going to be the lowest for 100 years and predictions for SC 25 are that they will be even lower still. Most second peaks have been somewhat smaller than the first – though not in SC5 – and seem to add around 6 months to the cycle time.

If this is indeed a double peak then I expect that solar maximum will perhaps be a few months delayed from the NASA prediction of Fall 2013. End 2013 now seems more likely.

SC24 may 2013

The Dalton minimum spanned Solar Cycles 5 and 6 from 1790 to 1820.  The Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715 preceded the numbering of Solar Cycles (Solar Cycle 1 started in 1755). The likelihood that SC 24 and 25 may be similar to SC 5 and 6 is growing and so is the likelihood that we will see 2  – 3 decades of global cooling. It is more likely that for the next 20- 30 years this Landscheidt Minimum will resemble the Dalton Minimum period, but if SC25 is a very small cycle then we may even approach the conditions of the Little Ice Age during the Maunder Minimum. Landscheidt’s prediction was that this minimum would last from 2000 to 2060 and the global temperature stand-still for the last 15 years gives greater credence to his forecasts.

NASA: The Sunspot Cycle —

The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the “Little Ice Age” when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

Piers Corbyn: Mini Ice Age is upon us and the CO2 story is over

March 15, 2013

Piers Corbyn is not the most popular figure in “scientific” circles and is probably detested among “main-stream” weather pundits.  He just seems to get his forecasts right more often than conventional weather-men do, but he does not reveal his methods and this causes many to dismiss him as a lucky charlatan. They prefer to consider him an astrologer rather than a colourful but serious astrophysicist who might actually be considering the correct parameters. That he might also be making some money from his commercial weather forecasts is even more galling to some.

Weather Action: Our forecasts, which have independently proven peer-reviewed significant skill – unlike all others in the field – are based on our revolutionary Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT) which is increasing in scope and skill as our researches advance.

But I like that he gives due importance to solar effects. And his track record in forecasting cannot be denied and I am inclined to take him rather seriously in spite of his  use of horribly garish colours in his presentations. His results if not his methods are getting some attention in Parliament.

Climate Realists have his article claiming that the Mini Ice Age is already here (pdf).

The new Mini Ice Age is upon us!

“MIA fingerprint now overwhelming” – astrophysicist

“March 10th 1947** was the day of the thaw ending the late snowy cold winter of 1947 in Britain & Europe and there was a giant sunspot group at the centre of the solar disc. This year, three magnetic (22yr) solar cycles later, solar activity has been generally very low and this day marked deep cold” – heralding more snow, on 12th , when snow-blizzards hit S/E England (Pic Folkstone) as WeatherAction forecasted in detail 25 days ahead (see map). “This is further evidence of the inevitable plunge – from now – into the new Mini-Ice Age we warned of some years ago”, said Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of, March 10th. “The CO2 story is over. It has been pointing the world in the wrong direction for too long. The serious implications of the developing MIA to agriculture and the world economy through the next 25 to 35 years must be addressed.”

(** Piers’ birthday!)

● The CO2 story is over

● World cooling is now ‘locked-in’

● Average solar activity way down

● Jet stream often way south

●Jet Stream develops wild waves giving very extreme weather events – hail, thunder, floods etc

Droughts on the Tibetan plateau coincide with grand solar minima

May 14, 2012

Yet another paper indicating that climate and solar behaviour are related – at least over the Tibetan plateau and at least over the last 1000 years.

Tree ring based precipitation reconstruction in the south slope of the middle Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, over the last millennium

by Junyan Sun and Yu Liu,  Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China


Reconstruction of precipitation amounts for the edge of the Tibet Plateau. The bars on the chart depict prominent weak phases of solar activity, which correspond to Om = Oort Minimum; Wm = Wolf Minimum; Sm = Spörer Minimum; Mm = Maunder Minimum; Dm = Dalton Minimum). Figure from: Sun & Liu (2012).

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt have written a summary of this paper (in German), and this translation is from P Gosselin at NoTricksZone

New Study of the Tibet Plateau: Whenever Solar Activity is Weak, the Rains Disappear
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

The Tibet Plateau is at 3000 to 5000 meters elevation and is the highest and (most) expansive high plateau on Earth. Therefore it reacts sensitively to climate changes. Junyan Sun and Yu Liu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences studied tree rings in the northwest plateau edge from two living 1000 year old trees. Tree growth in the area of study is particularly sensitive to the amount of precipitation. (more…)

New study shows solar minimum does cause climate cooling

May 7, 2012

A new paper in Nature Geoscience shows that solar grand minima do indeed cause cooling of the climate in Europe. Around 2800 years ago, one of these Grand Solar Minima, the Homeric Minimum, caused a distinct climatic change in less than a decade in Western Europe. The forcing mechanisms still remain unclear but the evidence that solar effects are significant and cannot be ignored are mounting and persuasive. Now as we enter (or have already entered) a new solar minimum it remains to be seen as to whether this (Landscheidt?) Minimum will be a grand minimum to compare with the Maunder Minimum. In any event a period of global cooling seems likely.

In contrast, the evidence for any anthropogenic effects on climate is still non-existent though political and alarmist theories abound. There is as yet no direct evidence that man-made carbon dioxide emissions has any significant effect on global warming.

Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum by Celia Martin-Puertas, Katja Matthes, Achim Brauer, Raimund Muscheler, Felicitas Hansen, Christof Petrick, Ala Aldahan, Göran Possnert & Bas van Geel

Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo1460


Solar cycles and the Landscheidt minimum

March 10, 2012

A recent post by John O’Sullivan reminded me that it is time for the next solar minimum that is on its way to be named after the man who predicted it. Theodor Landscheidt (born in 1927 in Bremen, Germany, died on May 20, 2004) was an author and amateur climatologist. In 1989, Landscheidt forecast a period of sunspot minima after 1990, accompanied by increased cold, with a stronger minimum and more intense cold which should peak in 2030 which he described as the “Landscheidt Minimum”.

The sun goes through its cycles as it will and at its own pace and we continue to struggle to try and decipher the various cycles that exist, what causes them and what effects they have on the earth. Some of the cycles known or hypothesised to exist are the:

  • 11 year sunspot cycle
  • 22 year magnetic cycle
  • 87 year Gleissberg cycle
  • 166 year “unnamed” cycle
  • 210 years Suess or de Vries cycle
  • 2,300 years Hallstat cycle
  • 6000 years Xapsos and Burke cycle

Landscheidt’s paper is here: New Little Ice Age instead of Global Warming?


The Sun – not man – heats the earth

October 17, 2011

It would seem obvious – but it has not been – and it is still heresy for the AGW orthodoxy to entertain the notion that carbon dioxide effects are insignificant in relation to solar effects on climate.

A new paper in Energy & Environment, Vol. 22, No. 6 (Sept. 2011)

Long-Term Instrumental and Reconstructed Temperature Records Contradict Anthropogenic Global Warming

by Horst-Joachim LüdeckeEIKE, European Institute for Climate and Energy, PO.Box 11011, 07722 Jena, GERMANY


There is no evidence that the temperature changes of the second half of the 20th Century are in any way extraordinary. No impact of the rise in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can be found in the data.

One more nail in the AGW coffin.

Abstract:Monthly instrumental temperature records from 5 stations in the northern hemisphere are analyzed, each of which is local and over 200 years in length, as well as two reconstructed long-range yearly records – from a stalagmite and from tree rings that are about 2000 years long. In the instrumental records, the steepest 100-year temperature fall happened in the 19th century and the steepest rise in the 20th century, both events being of about the same magnitude. Evaluation by the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) yields Hurst exponents that are in good agreement with the literature. DFA, Monte Carlo simulations, and synthetic records reveal that both 100-year events were caused by external trends. In contrast to this, the reconstructed records show stronger 100-year rises and falls as quite common during the last 2000 years. These results contradict the hypothesis of an unusual (anthropogenic) global warming during the 20th century. As a hypothesis, the sun’s magnetic field, which is correlated with sunspot numbers, is put forward as an explanation. The long-term low-frequency fluctuations in sunspot numbers are not detectable by the DFA in the monthly instrumental records, resulting in the common low Hurst exponents. The same does not hold true for the 2000-year-long reconstructed records, which explains both their higher Hurst exponents and the higher probabilities of strong 100-year temperature fluctuations. A long-term synthetic record that embodies the reconstructed sunspot number fluctuations includes the different Hurst exponents of both the instrumental and the reconstructed records and, therefore, corroborates the conjecture.

This paper supports the results published by Prof. Sami Solanki back in 2004 and reported in Science Daily here:

Sami K. Solanki, Natalie A. Krivova Can solar variability explain solar warming since 1970? Journal of Geophysical Research,108, doi 10.1029/2002JA009753 (2003)

The authors  concluded  then that “based on a statistical study of earlier periods of increased solar activity, the researchers predict that the current level of high solar activity will probably continue only for a few more decades”.

Solar Cycle 24: Still on track to be smallest sunspot number cycle in 100 years

August 25, 2011

The August solar cycle 24 forecast from NASA is unchanged from the previous month though the maximum has increased to 69 from the 64 forecast about 6 months ago.

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013 (same as last month). We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Four out of the last five months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.

NASA - Solar Cycle 24 forecast

Solar Cycle 24 continues to invite comparisons with Solar Cycle 5.

SC24 versus SC5 - from

Solar effects will give increased volcanic and earthquake activity in the next 2 years

February 22, 2011

Solar effects are much more profound than many so-called climate scientists like to admit. It seems entirely plausible to me that earthquakes and volcanism are connected to solar events. This paper by Zhang from 1998 also associates increased Earthquakes with general increases in solar proton events.

Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities

Gui-Qing ZHANG

Vol. 11 No.4 (495~500)  ACTA SEISMOLOGICA SINICA  July, 1998

Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of  Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Abstract :

The  relations  between  sunspot  numbers and earthquakes  (M>6), solar 10.7cm  radio flux  and  earthquakes,  solar  proton events and earthquakes have been  analyzed in this  paper. It has been found that:

  1. Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years  of  solar activity. Generally, the  earthquake  activities are  relatively less during the peak value years of  solar activity, some  say, a round the period when magnetic polarity  in the  solar polar regions  is reversed.
  2. The earthquake frequency in the minimum period of  solar activity is closely related to the  maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others.
  3. As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper, the simple physical discussion has been carried out.

Piers Corbyn at WeatherAction comments:

“We now think that it is not just general solar proton event levels which point towards more earthquakes but that individual solar proton events exacerbate immediate earthquake (and associated volcanism) risk either directly or due to consequent storm activity and related surface pressure changes such as caused by our solar triggered and predicted Tropical Cyclone Atu which is currently centred North of New Zealand and heading closer.

There are also additional lunar effects on storm development and earthquakes & volcanism and for solar drivers it appears that the odd-even minima, particularly the later part i.e. the rising phase of even solar cycles – WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW (early Solar Cycle 24) – are the most dangerous.

Prediction of individual Earthquakes is very hard but we are very confident of a continuing period of significantly enhanced earthquake and volcanic activity as well as extreme weather events for the coming one or two years, probably exceeding the levels of the most active extended periods in at least the last 100 years.”

An active Sunday for the Sun

February 14, 2011

An unusually active Sunday for the Sun yesterday mainly from the very large sunspot 1158 with magnetic flux values not seen since 2006.


Solar Flares: Mutiple Solar flares took place around Sprawling Sunspot 1158 on Sunday, including an M6.6 Flare which was the 2nd largest of Cycle 24 thus far.  ….. . There will continue to be a chance for M-Class flares and NOAA also lists a 5% chance for an X-Class event.

Solar Flux 107: For the first time in Cycle 24, the official daily solar flux number measured in Penticton, BC closed above 100. The solar flux of 107 is the highest since September 2005. The last time the solar flux finished above 100 was in December 2006.

Solar Update: Huge sunspot 1158 which is located in the southern hemisphere will continue to be a threat for strong solar flares. Elsewhere, Sunspot 1157 which is in the northern hemisphere showed growth late on Sunday and Sunspot 1160 which rotated into view on the eastern limb has sprouted a few new spots as well. The M6.6 Solar Flare did cause a Radio Blackout on HF which was short lived.

Sunspots (Early Monday): image

NOAA forecast:

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent major flare make this region the most likely source for a major event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region 1157 and Region 1159.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.

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