Solar Cycle 24 NASA forecast update

David Hathaway has a new forecast for solar cycle 24:

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in early 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

SC24 forecast: updated 2nd March 2012

SC25 will likely be even smaller and it now remains to be seen if this Landscheidt Minimum is closer to a Dalton Minimum or a Maunder Minimum.

Initially – during SC 23 – there were two schools of thought:

  1. that SC 24 would be stronger than SC23 and
  2. those who felt that SC24 would be like SC5 and that a grand minimum was on its way.

The development of earlier SC 24 forecasts is shown below and the comparison with SC5 seems to be holding.

SC24 forecast development

SC24 is shown compared to SC5 below:

SC24 versus SC5



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