Archive for the ‘Climate’ Category

“Warriors of the Faith”: Global warming zealots declare jehad

November 8, 2010

The Chicago Tribune runs with the latest example of faith-based zealots declaring war!

Warriors of the Faith: image Jesus Christ Superstar

 

Faced with rising political attacks, hundreds of climate scientists are joining a broad campaign to push back against congressional conservatives who have threatened prominent researchers with investigations and vowed to kill regulations to rein in man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

The still-evolving efforts reveal a shift among climate scientists, many of whom have traditionally stayed out of politics and avoided the news media. Many now say they are willing to go toe-to-toe with their critics, some of whom gained new power after the Republicans won control of the House in Tuesday’s election.

On Monday, the American Geophysical Union, the country’s largest association of climate scientists, plans to announce that 700 climate scientists have agreed to speak out as experts on questions about global warming and the role of man-made air pollution.

John Abraham of St. Thomas University in Minnesota, who last May wrote a widely disseminated response to climate change skeptics, is also pulling together a “climate rapid response team,” which includes scientists prepared to go before what they consider potentially hostile audiences on conservative talk radio and television shows.

“This group feels strongly that science and politics can’t be divorced and that we need to take bold measures to not only communicate science but also to aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists,” said Scott Mandia, professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College in New York.

This new Rapid Response Team has so far recruited 39 Warriors of the Faith!!!

A rapid-response team, however, is willing to delve into politics. In the week that Abraham and others have been marshaling the team, 39 scientists agreed to participate, including Richard Feely, senior scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; and Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.

“People who’ve already dug their heels in, we’re not going to change their opinions,” Mandia said. “We’re trying to reach people who may not have an opinion or opinion based on limited information.”

neela.banerjee@latimes.com

It is difficult to take any Global Warming “Science” or “Scientists” seriously as long they continue the shenanigans revealed in Climategate and behave like a bunch of religious fanatics. It remains to be seen how many real scientists will join these religious fanatics in committing scientific and political suicide.

The End is Nigh!

October 26, 2010

Various headlines today tell their own story:

  1. Global Warming to Bring More Intense Storms to Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Southern Hemisphere Year Round
  2. As Arctic Warms, Increased Shipping Likely to Accelerate Climate Change
  3. Thermogeddon: When the Earth gets too hot for humans
  4. Space tourism could have big impact on climate
  5. WARMER ARCTIC SPELLS COLDER WINTERS, and finally
  6. Colorado climate scientists tell Ken Buck: Global warming is not a ‘hoax’

The scam is unravelling.

 

 

Increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years: Must be global warming

October 26, 2010

When Good Measurements become Bad Science

Analysis of ice cores, drilled at Law Dome just inland from Australia’s Casey Station in the Antarctic shows increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years.

http://news.curtin.edu.au/news/wa-drought-linked-to-greater-snowfall-in-the-antarctic/

Dr Tas van Ommen, Principal Research Scientist with the Australian Antarctic Division in Hobart will be presenting his research results from the analysis of ice cores during a seminar ‘Antarctic Ice Cores and Australian Climate’ at Curtin University on Monday 25 October.

But inevitably global warming is then invoked on the basis of speculation and correlations.

Analysis of ice cores drilled at Law Dome, a site just inland from the Antarctic Casey station, has revealed that snowfall variability may be linked to climate in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean and southwest Western Australia.

Dr van Ommen said the ice cores provide a record of annual variations in snowfall and provide a record that stretches back over 750 years.

“Over the past 30 years, the cores indicate that there has been a significant increase in snowfall in that area,” he said.

“This inversely correlates to the occurrence of a significantly lower rainfall and subsequent drought that has been experienced in the southwest of Western Australia. “So when there’s extra moisture at Law Dome, the same circulation pattern is starving Western Australia of moisture.”

Further work is underway to explore these connections and understand the reasons behind them. However, these events of greater snowfall in the Antarctic and drought in WA also coincide with human induced changes in the atmosphere that may be contributing to global warming.

“The snowfall increase we see in the last 30 years lies well outside the natural range recorded over the past 750 years,” Dr van Ommen said.

The item only becomes newsworthy because of this “coincidence” and the speculation that this increased snowfall may be linked to the drought with reduced precipitation in Western Australia which may be linked to “global warming” !!

Coincidences and inverse correlations do not a science make!

But the tag “global warming”  brings in the funding.

That man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends is irrational

October 24, 2010

 

Variations in temperature, CO 2 , and dust fro...

Vostok Ice core: Image via Wikipedia

 

One of a series of debate articles  in Ny Teknik by Professors Björnbom and Ribbing brings a refreshing whiff of sanity into the “closed and settled” science of global climate change. They conclude:

“To now stubbornly stick to the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends, is irrational in the headwinds from a growing number of critical articles based on measurements.”

Pehr Björnbom, Professor Emeritus, Chemical Engineering, KTH

Carl-Gustaf Ribbing, Professor Emeritus, Solid State Physics, Uppsala University

A free translation of their article is reproduced below:

Azar, Eriksson, Tjernström and Westerstrand, AETW, write: “strange that on the basis of only one study … rejecting decades of research “. This is a misleading summary of many years of development. For our article, and the references to the PDF version, showing a lower climate sensitivity than that shown by the UN’s Climate Change organisation, the IPCC, is not a new phenomenon. In less than ten years, the IPCC’s high values have been  disputed, partly because global warming has been lower than was predicted.

Instead of reducing the excessive carbon dioxide sensitivity the aerosol contribution has been increased to reduce climate sensitivity. In principle it is better to use measurements from high altitude, rather than parameter dependent adaptations to climate models to the Earth’s surface temperature.

AETW write about the glacial cycles that it is “.. very difficult to explain how Earth’s temperature can vary by as much as five degrees … between an ice age and a non-glacial climate when sensitivity is … one degree or less. ” It is “very difficult” only with today’s climate, which shows that the narrow focus on “explaining” the climate variations of carbon dioxide leads to absurdities.
We wonder why Per Ribbing blames us for over-simplification? What we are against is precisely the unilateral selection of the carbon dioxide created by human activity to be the dominant factor in climate regulation. We assert the contrary, that a half-dozen natural factors govern the very complex climate system. It will probably never be scientifically possible to completely describe this chaotic system.
Spencer and Braswell are making great progress with their phase diagram, so that variations in the natural driving forces can be separated from the feedbacks. This gives a higher correlation and a more accurate value of climate sensitivity: 0.6 degrees without the aid of climate models.
This uncertainty gives the obvious; that values can increase or decrease for longer periods than any measuring period. To now stubbornly stick to the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends, is unreasonable in the headwinds from a growing number of critical articles based on measurements.

Pehr Björnbom, Professor Emeritus, Chemical Engineering, KTH

Carl-Gustaf Ribbing, Professor Emeritus, Solid State Physics, Uppsala University

Earth is starting to crumble due to global warming !

October 15, 2010

 

The Peteroa (burning bushes) volcano lies at t...

Planchón-Peteroa: Image via Wikipedia

 

Alarmism is alive and well at ENTRIX and at the New Scientist.

When in doubt it seems you can always get a paper published if you put it down to global warming. The key finding in this new paper seems to be that “large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes”.

The Pleistocene is the period from  2.588 million to 12000 years ago. But since there is no explanation for the above finding there is no hesitation in jumping to the conclusion about the present “With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth’s most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life”.

The New Scientist then chips in with the headline “EARTH is starting to crumble under the strain of climate change”.

Daniel Tormey of ENTRIX, an environmental consultancy based in Los Angeles, studied a huge landslide that occurred 11,000 years ago on Planchón-Peteroa. He focused on this glaciated volcano in Chile because its altitude and latitude make it likely to feel the effects of climate change before others.

“Around one-third of the volcanic cone collapsed,” Tormey says. Ten billion cubic metres of rock crashed down the mountain and smothered 370 square kilometres of land, travelling 95 kilometres in total (Global and Planetary ChangeDOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.08.003). Studies have suggested that intense rain cannot provide the lubrication needed for this to happen, so Tormey concludes that glacier melt must have been to blame. With global temperatures on a steady rise, Tormey is concerned that history will repeat itself on volcanoes all over the world.

He thinks that many volcanoes in temperate zones could be at risk, including in the Ring of Fire – the horseshoe of volcanoes that surrounds the Pacific Ocean . “There are far more human settlements and activities near the slopes of glaciated active volcanoes today than there were 10,000 years ago, so the effects could be catastrophic,” he says.

Maybe I am just a little cynical but I suspect that the author’s environmental consultancy business would be advantaged by getting a few more studies funded and that would be more likely if catastrophes were imminent. A clear case of a conflict of interest I would think.


Climategate leads to Wikipedia action (finally)

October 15, 2010
Image representing Wikipedia as depicted in Cr...

Image via CrunchBase

There are some small encouraging signs that science may be returning to the subject of climate and man-made effects and carbon dioxide forcings and solar influences. This is one of them.

Lawrence Solomon pointed out back in December 2009 that:

The Climategate Emails describe how a small band of climatologists cooked the books to make the last century seem dangerously warm. The emails also describe how the band plotted to rewrite history as well as science, particularly by eliminating the Medieval Warm Period, a 400 year period that began around 1000 AD.

The Climategate Emails reveal something else, too: the enlistment of the most widely read source of information in the world — Wikipedia — in the wholesale rewriting of this history.

U.K. scientist and Green Party activist William Connolley took control of all things climate in the most used information source the world has ever known – Wikipedia. Starting in February 2003, just when opposition to the claims of the band members were beginning to gel, Connolley set to work on the Wikipedia site. He rewrote Wikipedia’s articles on global warming, on the greenhouse effect, on the instrumental temperature record, on the urban heat island, on climate models, on global cooling. On Feb. 14, he began to erase the Little Ice Age; on Aug.11, the Medieval Warm Period. In October, he turned his attention to the hockey stick graph. He rewrote articles on the politics of global warming and on the scientists who were skeptical of the band. Richard Lindzen and Fred Singer, two of the world’s most distinguished climate scientists, were among his early targets, followed by others that the band especially hated, such as Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, authorities on the Medieval Warm Period.

All told, Connolley created or rewrote 5,428 unique Wikipedia articles. His control over Wikipedia was greater still, however, through the role he obtained at Wikipedia as a website administrator, which allowed him to act with virtual impunity. When Connolley didn’t like the subject of a certain article, he removed it — more than 500 articles of various descriptions disappeared at his hand. When he disapproved of the arguments that others were making, he often had them barred — over 2,000 Wikipedia contributors who ran afoul of him found themselves blocked from making further contributions. Acolytes whose writing conformed to Connolley’s global warming views, in contrast, were rewarded with Wikipedia’s blessings. In these ways, Connolley turned Wikipedia into the missionary wing of the global warming movement.
The Medieval Warm Period disappeared, as did criticism of the global warming orthodoxy. With the release of the Climategate Emails, the disappearing trick has been exposed. The glorious Medieval Warm Period will remain in the history books, perhaps with an asterisk to describe how a band of zealots once tried to make it disappear.

But now over a year after the Climategate revelations, Watts Up With That reports that

in a vote of 7-0, the most prolific climate revisionist editor ever at Wikipedia, with over 5400 article revisions has been banned from making any edits about climate related articles for six months. Here’s the details at Wikipedia.

Pachauri stays at IPCC: Ultimately it’s a question of cowardice

October 14, 2010

 

Pachauri's racy thesis

 

The IPCC has just completed its 3 day meeting in Busan. The absence of any courage by any of the delegates or by their Chairman is apparent. Rather than implement all the recommendations of the IAC review they have just accepted all the easy bits and shuffled off the more painful corrections to be studied in committee. The Chairman himself has not had the courage to swallow his overweening pride and return quietly to Almora.  (A psychiatrist might be able to explain the connections between his public utterances and his steamy novel).

The BBC reports:

(The IPCC) meeting in South Korea closed with many other reforms proposed in a recent review being passed to committees for further consideration. Chairman Rajendra Pachauri confirmed his intention to stay in post until the next assessment is published in 2014. In its recent review of the IPCC, the InterAcademy Council (IAC) – an umbrella group for the world’s science academies – highlighted a case in the 2007 assessment where studies projecting rapidly declining crop yields in Africa were given more weight than they merited, in the absence of supporting evidence.

The revised guidance emphasises that in future, authors must assess both the quality of research available and uncertainties within that research.

t urges authors to be careful of “group-think”, but maintains that it “may be appropriate to describe findings for which the evidence and understanding are overwhelming as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers”.

Enhanced guidance on the use of “grey literature” – material not published in peer-reviewed scientific journals – has also been drawn up, and will be finalised by chairs of the IPCC’s working groups in the coming months.

Procedures for correcting errors should they arise were also approved – which means that the most serious error in the 2007 report, on the projected melting date for Himalayan glaciers, can be formally repaired.

Flight accuracy gives Chang’e-2 new options

October 14, 2010

 

Chang'e flies to the moon.

Chang'e flies to the moon: Image via Wikipedia

 

After requiring only one course correction en route to the moon the fuel left on board Chang’e-2 keeps open all its future options after it completes its 6 month mission. Since Chang’e-1 was already crashed intentionally onto the moon, a return to earth or a flight into outer space are more likely than another descent to the moon’s surface. If the instruments remain in working order a continued flight past other targets in space could be more rewarding than a tame return to Earth.

Xinhua reports:

Chang’e-2 was carried into lunar orbit by a rocket, and only corrected once during the transfer from earth orbit to lunar orbit, so a large amount of fuel will be left after its mission, Zhou Jianliang, the vice chief-designer of BACC, said.

It is s expected to have enough fuel to fly back to earth, the vice chief-designer of the Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) said Tuesday.

Zhou said there are three possible “fates” for Chang’e-2 after it finishes its six-month mission: landing on the moon; flying to outer space; or returning to earth. The fate of Chang’e-2 will be decided according to its condition when the mission is complete.

The Long March-3C carrier rocket took Chang’e-2 into space from southwest China on Oct. 1. The probe completed its final braking on Oct. 9 and is now orbiting the moon at a 100 km-high orbit.

IPCC Meeting opens in Busan. Pachauri to go?

October 11, 2010

It is time for Pachauri to call it a day. Even though the Indian Government is forced to support the discredited Chairman, the recommendation that the Chairman not serve more than one term will probably be followed.

(400 delegates! And the UN meeting has just been held in Beijing. Cancun in November. A gravy train, hot air and not just a few ounces of carbon dioxide!!)

KBS World reports that

The 32nd general assembly of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) opened in Busan today.
Attending the four-day meeting are IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri, the heads of the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. Environment Program, and some 400 other delegates from 194 countries. The participants will discuss 14 issues, including the publication of the IPCC’s fifth assessment report that will be announced in 2014.

The Times of India believes the Busan meet will decide Pachauri’s fate as IPCC head.

Though the Council had recommended that the “the term of the IPCC Chair should be limited to the timeframe of one assessment”, and Pachauri has already headed one such assessment report, which was released in 2007, the Indian government plans to back the director of The Energy Research Institute (TERI) at the meeting.
But, the Indian representatives at the meeting will ask for immediate implementation of all the other reforms of the committee set up after the Himalayan glacier scandal that had dented the IPCC’s reputation earlier this year.

 

THIRTY-SECOND SESSION OF THE IPCC

Busan, 11-14 October 2010

IPCC-XXXII/Doc. 1

(4.VIII.2010)

Agenda Item: 1

ENGLISH ONLY

 

PROVISIONAL AGENDA

1. OPENING OF THE SESSION

2. APPROVAL OF THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE 31st SESSION

3. IPCC PROGRAMME AND BUDGET FOR 2010-2014

4. THE IPCC 5TH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5)

4.1. Scope, content and process for the preparation of the AR5 Synthesis Report

4.2 Progress reports and schedule of AR5 related activities

5. REVIEW OF THE IPCC PROCESSES AND PROCEDURES:

REPORT BY THE INTER ACADEMY COUNCIL

6. ADMISSION OF OBSERVER ORGANIZATIONS

7. RULES OF PROCEDURES FOR THE ELECTION OF THE IPCC BUREAU AND ANY

TASK FORCE BUREAU

8. REPLACEMENT OF MEMBERS OF THE IPCC BUREAU

9. COMMUNCATIONS STRATEGY

10. MATTERS RELATED TO UNFCCC

11. OTHER PROGRESS REPORTS

11.1 Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

11.2 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance

Climate Change Adaptation

11.3 Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

11.4 Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis

(TGICA)

11.5 Development of new scenarios

11.6 IPCC Scholarship Programme

11.7 Implementation of decisions taken at the 30th Session

11.8 Any other progress reports

12. OTHER BUSINESS

13. TIME AND PLACE OF THE NEXT SESSION

14. CLOSING OF THE SESSION


UN climate talks in China end without breakthrough

October 9, 2010

No Surprises. (I wonder what the Carbon footprint of all the delegates, journalists and other hangers-on attending the jamboree was?). Oh well, the next jamboree will be held in Cancun in November.

From the BBC.

UN climate talks in China have ended without a major breakthrough and with angry words about the US from Beijing.

It has been the old deadlock in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin during the week-long talks. China feels unfairly criticised by the US.

On Saturday, one of the Chinese climate negotiators reportedly accused the US of behaving like a preening pig, complaining about Beijing when Washington had done so little itself.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11508913