“Clock-bomb boy” case is becoming a $15 million scam

November 24, 2015

The “clock-bomb boy” case is increasingly looking like a scam, probably engineered by his father and his family, and perpetrated on a gullible, scared, politically-correct establishment (all the way up to a bemused Barack Obama). It looked suspicious even then in September:

When I first came across the story I also thought that the authorities had been rather heavy handed. But now I am not so sure.

It looks more and more as if either the boy was pretty stupid or that the whole episode was engineered with the help of his father and some others. A 14 year old must be pretty stupid to not realise that his clock – which looked nothing like a clock – would not be taken at face value for what it looked like. Moreover to bring it to school on 9/11 is either malicious or just idiotic. And the police never took it for a “bomb”. They took it for the “fake bomb” it looked like. The picture of the boy in handcuffs was apparently staged by his father and taken by his sister after the cuffs had been removed.

Now the real purpose of the apparently stupid act is becoming clear. It looks like an extortion scam. First it succeeded in provoking an apparently heavy-handed response. Now comes the extortion – not for any physical harm suffered – but for mental suffering and trauma.

Oh dear.

CBS: Attorneys representing Ahmed Mohamed and his family want an apology and $15 million in damages after his arrest in September. ……

The attorneys have sent letters to both the City of Irving and Irving ISD (read below), demanding $10 million and $5 million respectively, for the way the incident was handled earlier this year. They claim 14-year-old Ahmed has suffered severe damages as a result of his interrogation and arrest at the school. They also point the finger at Irving’s Police Chief and Mayor for the way they portrayed Ahmed to the media once the story gained international interest.

The fake-bomb looked like a fake-bomb (which is why it got the attention it did). Technically it was no great act of invention or creativity.

The purpose of the device was obviously not to tell time but just to get attention and to be mistaken for a bomb. As a tool for an extortion scam, however, it was extremely creative, and apparently, successful .

 

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Racism rampant within ISIS (Da’esh)

November 24, 2015

Racism is endemic in the Arab world. Central Asian Muslims at least have the Mongol warrior traditions to give them status. Muslims from S Asia are considered to have been converted by conquerors or by trader-conquerors and are not to be compared with pure-blood Arabs. African Muslims come even lower down the scale since they were slaves who were converted by their Arab masters. In Arab eyes, I think, first class Muslims are those from the Middle East and some selected parts of North Africa; second class are those from countries with a Mongol heritage of being conquerors; third class are those from South Asia and the lowest class are Muslims from sub-Saharan Africa. Generally, the darker the skin colour, the lower the class. (Persians are all of course mainly Shia and are not considered true Muslims).

It has long been suspected that Da’esh (ISIS) also implements a hierarchy of races among their members, over and above any adherence to any religious sect within Islam. Lowest of course are the infidels who follow some religion other than Islam (and worst of all are those who follow no religion at all).  Apostate Sunnis are also considered scum.Then come all Shia Muslims who are virtually infidels.

ISIS just mirrors the racism that is endemic in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. African, Indians and Pakistanis who may be Sunni Muslims are never quite completely trustworthy. They are not given positions of command responsibility, are expendable and serve as cannon fodder. That seemingly applies even to European citizens, but who are of S Asian or African origin, and who volunteer as jihadists. That also explains why Boko Haram and al Shabab may affiliate themselves to Da’esh, but Africans are never going to get a place at the top table. Only a true Arab who follows the Wahhabi brand of Salafist jihadism apparently makes the grade. Earlier this year NBC News quoted US intelligence sources about how the Arabs looked down on Africans:

“The Arab world is incredibly racist,” explained a U.S. intelligence official. “They don’t see black Africans as equivalent to them.” ISIS may show “affinity” with Boko Haram, said the official, “but they stop short of allegiance.” Moreover, said the official, while Boko Haram has in the past year released videos to show “affiliation” with groups like ISIS, there’s no evidence of either group sending members to fight with the other. And while Boko Haram has praised ISIS, and shown the ISIS flag in videos, ISIS has not reciprocated.

The Press Trust of India has just put out this story which is carried widely in India, and is apparently based on a report put together from a variety of intelligence sources/briefings.

PTI: …. ISIS does not consider South Asian Muslims, including Indians, good enough to fight in conflict zone of Iraq and Syria and so treats them as inferior to Arab fighters often tricking them into suicide attacks. 

According to an intelligence report prepared by foreign agencies and shared with Indian agencies, fighters from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh as well as certain countries like Nigeria and Sudan are considered inferior to Arab fighters. 

There appears to be clear hierarchy wherein the Arab fighters are preferred as officer cadre and provided better arms and ammunition, equipment, accommodation and salaries. “The fighters from South Asia are usually housed in groups in small barracks and are paid less than the Arab fighters and are provided inferior equipment,” the input says. 

There are reports that the so-called inferior fighters are also, at times, tricked into suicide attacks. Usually they are given a vehicle loaded with explosives and asked to go near a targeted destination and call a certain number, who would purportedly come and meet them to explain the mission. However, as soon as the number is dialled, the car explodes due to a pre-set mechanism aimed at destroying a specific target.

A total of 23 Indians have so far joined the ISIS of which six reportedly killed in different incidents. ….. The intelligence report suggests that there is a disproportionately high level of casualty among the South Asian and African foreign terrorist fighters since they are forced to the frontlines of battle as foot soldiers. The Arab fighters with better battle experience are mostly positioned behind these fighters and hence their casualties are proportionally less in terms of their total numbers. 

According to The Hindu, the intelligence report also says that

“there is information that foreign fighters of Chinese, Indian, Nigerian and Pakistani origin are housed together and are monitored closely by the IS Police. ….  only Tunisian, Palestinian, Saudi Arabian, Iraqi and Syrian are allowed to be in the IS Police force, which is barred for fighters of all other nationalities. 

ISIS considers Islam, as it is practised in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh .., as apostate and a departure from the original teachings of Quran and Hadith, which makes them less motivated towards Salafist Jihad.

Further, passports of foreign terrorist fighters from South Asia and certain African countries are usually burnt upon their arrival in Iraq-Syria to prevent them going back to their countries.

European Muslims of S Asian origin who are attracted to Salafist jihadism because they feel they are second-class in Europe, will now find themselves even lower down the pecking order within Da’esh. The South Asian Muslim women who join Da’esh probably end up as little more than comfort women for their Arab superiors.

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Phantom Russian submarines show up (UK, Sweden) when defence budgets are being discussed

November 23, 2015

I get more cynical with each day, but it is remarkably coincidental that mysterious Russian submarines show up off the Swedish coast and now, even off the UK coast, just when defence budgets are being discussed.

BBC: An RAF plane is “conducting activity” off the Scottish coast, the Ministry of Defence says, amid reports of a Russian submarine being spotted in the area.

A Royal Navy Frigate and submarine are also thought to be involved in the search, along with Canadian and French maritime patrol aircraft.

But the same incident is also reported by Sputnik News:

British and French forces are looking for what the UK media has termed a “Russian submarine” as the country’s navy calls for budget increases.

Britain’s navy and air force have spent at least ten days searching for what the country’s media have called a “Russian submarine”, the BBC reported. The country’s defense ministry did not confirm that it was looking for a foreign submarine in its statement. This is the third time the UK has conducted search operations, according to the Telegraph, with the previous instance(s) tied to demands for higher defense spending.

Just a year ago it was the Swedish defence forces who claimed to be playing hide-and-seek with a mysterious Russian mini-submarine in the Stockholm archipelago. No submarine was found of course and I wrote then.

Perhaps there is a submarine out there. Perhaps it was in distress. Perhaps it was testing Swedish defences.

I have my doubts. Maybe I am just being cynical but I see two “drivers” here. A push for NATO membership and a larger defence budget. There is a new Red/Green government in place and they are due to present their first budget proposal today. Normally the Red/Greens could be expected to cut back on defence spending and they are ideologically not at all comfortable in joining NATO. They have an idealised and somewhat glorified vision of a “Swedish neutrality” even if it is completely contradicted by the reality of cooperation with the US and NATO for at least the last 30 years. Public opinion is against NATO membership – but only just. The Swedish military would just love to be part of NATO and take part not only in exercises but also in some real live fire-fights. The Swedish military – for all its restricted defence budget – is quite technologically advanced but lack playgrounds for their toys. Being part of NATO would provide more playgrounds and even more toys and many more players to play with.

In the case of the UK it seems to be a play written by the Ministry of Defence bureaucrats to protect their turf, when general budget cuts are in the air.  It seems to be a defensive ploy against the expected actions from George Osborne. The French defence ministry is also afraid of cuts by the socialist government. In the Swedish case it is more likely to have been a play written by the military rather than the bureaucracy. The military would very much like to be a part of NATO and the Red/Green Government is perceived as a greater threat than phantom Russian submarines.

There is little doubt that the weapons industry is not averse to promoting and developing their markets, even to the extent of instigating conflicts (Africa, Middle East). Compared to their machinations, a few phantom Russian submarines, invented by bureaucrats and occasionally getting lost in the Baltic or the North Sea, is only very minor disinformation. It is only mildly unethical, hurts no-one, and is surely allowable for the worthy cause of protecting defence budgets.

Triton NN submersible

 

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A “doubtful” God of the Anglican Church who needs advertising

November 23, 2015

I thought this was an interesting, and somewhat amusing, juxtaposition

  1. Paris attacks caused archbishop to ‘doubt’ presence of God

The Archbishop of Canterbury has said the terror attacks in Paris made him “doubt” the presence of God. The Most Reverend Justin Welby told the BBC’s Songs Of Praise the killings had put a “chink in his armour”.

He said his reaction to the attacks had been “first shock and horror and then a profound sadness”, heightened because he and his wife once lived in Paris. ….. The archbishop said: “Saturday morning, I was out and as I was walking, I was praying and saying: ‘God, why – why is this happening? Where are you in all this?'”

“He said ‘in the middle of it’ and also in answer from Psalm 56 – ‘he stores up our tears in a bottle, none of our sufferings are lost,'” he added.

2. Lord’s Prayer cinema ad snub ‘bewilders’ Church of England

The Church of England has said it is “disappointed and bewildered” by the refusal of leading UK cinemas to show an advert featuring the Lord’s Prayer. The Church called the decision “plain silly” and warned it could have a “chilling” effect on free speech.

It had hoped the 60-second film would be screened UK-wide before Christmas ahead of the new Star Wars film. The agency that handles adverts for the cinemas said it could offend those of “differing faiths and no faith”.

The advert features the Christian prayer being recited or sung by a variety of people. They include refugees, a grieving son, weightlifters at a gym, a sheep farmer, a gospel choir and the Archbishop of Canterbury, the Most Reverend Justin Welby.

I heard Justin Welby on radio yesterday and he seemed to get his theology and his philosophy terribly mixed up. I can’t say that the archbishop comes across as anything more than a feather-weight theologian and philosopher. I note that the CoE has a Facebook page, but with just 10,453 “likes”. Is their God so “unknown” as to require a cinema advertisement? Of course I expect that UK cinemas will also refuse to show any advertisements from ISIS (ISIL, Da’esh).

I quite like listening, occasionally, to BBC’s Songs of Praise. I expect that the BBC pays the CoE rather than the other way around. And this programme then really ought to be preceded by the statement “This programme is for the aid and succour of the Church of England”.

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India objects to, and chastises Kerry for, his climate bullying

November 23, 2015

It is -12ºC outside my window right now on a bright winter’s day, but it is -29ºC in the North of Sweden and I am not complaining. There has been no “global” warming for 19 years while fossil fuel utilisation has almost doubled. If “climate change” is about global warming, then why the panic? And if “climate change” is not about global warming, then why the panic?

We have had a couple of months of concentrated, strident, alarmist propaganda in the media and from the global warming mafia as preparation for the Paris climate conference beginning at the end of this week. It is reaching a crescendo this week. That the mainstream media led by The Guardian, and followed slavishly by Swedish media, have been particularly alarmist is not so surprising. Today the Guardian runs an article claiming that the “Paris climate change conference can save the planet”. It happens to be by Ed Miliband which is less than convincing since his judgements are more than a little suspect. The rich and the famous have been “harnessed”, like so many talking puppets, to parrot “the cause”. (Childhood memories of “Francis, the talking mule” come to mind). Yesterday it was first the Swedish King calling on people to stop bathing and then Prince Charles stated that global warming (euphemistically “climate change”) was one of the causes of the Syrian conflict. He could just as well claim that the terrorist attacks in Paris were due to “climate change”. (In fact someone has already done that). John Kerry wanders around the globe intimating that his foreign policy problems would disappear if only governments would do as he says.

(I have to admit that for almost any proposed action in any field, having Prince Charles’ support, is proof positive for me that that the action is going to be counterproductive. John Kerry with his blunders in Syria and in the Ukraine is approaching the same class).

I don’t pay too much attention to the hype. Ultimately, after 2 or 3 decades of global cooling, the pointlessness and futility of the fight against “carbon emissions” will become obvious. Of course vast sums of money would have been wasted. Global growth and the elimination of poverty would have been hampered for a time – but so what? Coal, oil and gas production and utilisation by the developing world will only continue, and continue to spread.

I don’t much care about Paris either. It has almost become irrelevant. Especially since “success” at the Paris conference will actually mean that the doubling of carbon dioxide emissions over the next 15 years will have been assured and sanctioned. China and India have already won. The “success” of Paris would provide them with official sanction to increase their use of fossil fuel under the cloak of reducing emissions per unit of gdp growth. The developed world will effectively commit itself to increased costs and reduced growth to no purpose. While this will depress global growth (mainly Europe) it should make the developing world even more competitive and that will be some mitigation. The US is somewhat immune since it can just ramp up the use of gas.

But the constant nagging by the global warming brigade is getting irritating and coercive. The sanctimonious preaching by John Kerry has finally crossed the line. So much so that India has had to resort to formally chastising him,

The Hindu:

India has reacted strongly to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement that the country will be a “challenge” in the coming climate change talks in Paris.

“It is in a way unfair to say that India will be a challenge. It is actually not doing justice to India,” Union Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar told PTI. “The U.S. is our great friend and strategic partner. His [Kerry’s] comment is unwarranted and unfair. The attitude of some of the developed countries is the challenge for the Paris conclusion,” the Minister said.

Mr. Javadekar said there was no question of compromising on India’s stand on climate change. He blamed the “attitude” of the developed countries for the problem. India was trying to “proactively” forge a consensus on the issue. ……..

…… While the developed world has been looking at increased emission cuts from developing countries, the latter — including India — have sought common but differentiated responsibility. Shorn of jargon, it means that the developed world has been the prime polluter since its early lead in industrialisation and stays way ahead in emissions per capita to this day, meaning that it cannot expect nations now industrialising to forget this skew.

I really do dislike those who know best what others should do.

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UN Resolution 2249 (2015) has implicitly invoked Chapter 7 and sanctions military action against ISIL in Iraq and Syria

November 21, 2015

UN SC Res 2249

UN Resolution 2249 which was passed yesterday at the initiative of France actually does invoke Chapter 7 of the UN Charter and goes very much further than some are arguing. The resolution does not just sanction action against ISIL (ISIS) but calls on member states which can act, to do so:

”  Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, …….  on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts….”

Any member nation is therefore fully authorised  – in international law – by this resolution to attack ISIL (ISIS) (or any other of the named terrorist groups) in Syria or in Iraq. 

I have heard arguments from the left in the UK that this is not the explicit UN sanction for military action under Chapter 7 that they are looking for before agreeing to any attacks on ISIS in Syria, but this is just wishful and incorrect thinking. The UN itself explains in its Research Report No. 1 that the Security Council can exercise its Chapter 7 powers without explicitly invoking Chapter 7 in the text of a Security Council resolution.

UN Research Report No 1 Chapter VII 23 June 08

There can be no doubt that Chapter 7 is being implicitly invoked.

UN Charter

The beginning of Chapter 7 (Article 39) is specifically addressed to “any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression” and yesterday’s resolution “determines …….  the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security”.

The United States Deputy Ambassador to the UN provides this explanation to the US President of yesterday’s resolution:

Mr. President, in recent weeks barbaric terrorist attacks have startled the world’s conscience. From Europe to Africa to the Middle East, innocent men and women have been slaughtered. Families destroyed in Beirut. Concertgoers slain in Paris. Air passengers bombed in the sky. Tourists killed on the beach in Tunisia. ……

For this reason, we welcome and applaud this resolution’s resolute call on states to take all necessary measures in compliance with international law to counter ISIL and the al-Nusrah Front. We must also choke off funding, arms, recruitment, and other kinds of support to ISIL and the al-Nusrah Front.

As the resolution recognizes, Iraq has made it clear that it is facing a serious threat of continuing attacks from ISIL, in particular coming out of safe havens in Syria; and the Assad regime in Syria has shown that it cannot and will not suppress this threat, even as it undertakes actions that benefit the extremists’ recruiting. In this regard, working with Iraq, the United States has been leading international efforts to provide assistance to combat the threat that ISIL poses to the security of its people and territory, and we are taking, in accordance with the UN Charter and its recognition of the inherent right of individual and collective self-defense, necessary and proportionate military action to deny ISIL safe haven. …….

Any government of a member state in general, and the UK government in particular, needs no further UN sanction if they wish to act against ISIS in Iraq or in Syria. In fact with this resolution in place it is quite unlikely that the UN Security Council will produce another resolution to cover ground already covered.

David Cameron now has all the UN sanction that he could ever desire to extend military strikes on ISIS in Syria. He can even, with justification, go to his parliament at any time and explain that all member states with the capacity to attack ISIL (ISIS) in Syria have a duty to do so under Resolution 2249 (2015). St Jeremy really has no leg to stand on – Chapter 7 has already been invoked.

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The Pope’s despair about Christmas is unworthy

November 21, 2015

The Christmas and New Year holidays are important, but for most people the holiday season has ceased to be a celebration of anything religious a long time ago. The holidays are important primarily as the annual time of renewal, and in the Northern hemisphere, as a sign that the shortest day has been left behind, and the journey to summer has begun. It is a celebration of the Sun – Sol Invictus – and that custom goes back to long before the celebrations around the winter solstice were hijacked by Christianity. As a paean to the Sun it goes back into prehistory, and at least to the last ice-age some 20,000 years ago.

The annual renewal and the “proof” that this is a perpetual recurrence is the fundamental under-pinning of a primal human need. That, no matter how desperate it may seem, life goes on. That no matter how dark or painful or grievous the days are, the Sun will shine again. It is, above all, a reaffirmation of hope. With all the horrible things that happen around us (always have and always will), it would be all too simple, in the dark days of winter, to give in to hopelessness and despair. But the annual renewal is not, I think, a time for desperation and depression. In spite of Syria or Iraq or Mali or Lebanon or Paris, it is the time that is needed to rekindle hope and not to succumb.

If I have any belief, it is that the world will not end and the hope that humans can do better.  And we will need that belief and that hope again next year, and every year to come.

And so I find the Pope’s rant about Christmas to be a cry of despair and frustration – and unworthy.

Daily Mail: The Pope has called Christmas a ‘charade’ during a sermon in which he reflected on recent atrocities around the world. Among the acts of inhumanity he denounced were the Paris attacks, which left 129 dead, and the bombing of a Russian airliner over Egypt, which killed all 224 people on board. Christmas festivities will seem empty in a world which has chosen ‘war and hate’, Pope Francis said yesterday at the Vatican.

‘Christmas is approaching: there will be lights, parties, Christmas trees and nativity scenes… it’s all a charade. The world continues to go to war. The world has not chosen a peaceful path,’ he said in the Mass at the chapel of the Santa Marta residence. ……. There are wars today everywhere, and hate, ……… God weeps, Jesus weeps’.

In the coming holiday period, and with all the barbarism and cruelty that is so apparent, it is all the more important to inspire hope, hope in the future and that things can be better. It is necessary in the renewal process that people are inspired to believe that they can act to make things better. We are talking about human behaviour and I refuse to believe that it is not possible to influence that behaviour. There must be a time to sorrow, but this coming holiday is not a time to wallow in tears. It is almost as if the Pope believes the hate and the barbarism are Divinely Inspired and are not subject to human influence. Is weeping the only remedy available? Is he just an observer?

In inspiring that hope and belief in the future that we need in large measures, I find the Pope wanting.

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Statistician issues a $100,000 challenge for anyone to prove that global warming is statistically significant

November 20, 2015

Doug Keenan used to do research on financial trading and is now an independent statistician. He has on a number of occasions pointed out the very poor statistical analysis carried out by “scientists” in drawing unwarranted conclusions. He has challenged the statistics used for example in radiocarbon dating, the use of proxies such as grape harvests for temperatures, early Chinese chronologies based on planetary conjunctions and the like. He has for a long time criticised the “global warming” community for dodgy statistics in dealing with temperature time-series. Most famously he showed that the IPCC 2013 (AR5) report was statistically incompetent.

He has now issued a challenge to the global warming community to prove that their statistical, data manipulation methods are valid and can distinguish between real trends and purely random time-series. He contends that global warming trends are mere assertions and are not statistically justified. He is putting his money where his mouth is and has offered $100,000 for anyone who can do that.

There have been many claims of observational evidence for global-warming alarmism. I have argued that all such claims rely on invalid statistical analyses. Some people, though, have asserted that the analyses are valid. Those people assert, in particular, that they can determine, via statistical analysis, whether global temperatures are increasing more than would be reasonably expected by random natural variation. Those people do not present any counter to my argument, but they make their assertions anyway.

In response to that, I am sponsoring a contest: the prize is $100 000. In essence, the prize will be awarded to anyone who can demonstrate, via statistical analysis, that the increase in global temperatures is probably not due to random natural variation.

Competition

The file Series1000.txt contains 1000 time series. Each series has length 135 (the same as that of the most commonly studied series of global temperatures). The series were generated as follows. First, 1000 series were obtained via trendless statistical models fit for global temperatures. Then, some randomly-chosen series had a trend added to them. Some trends were positive; others were negative. Each individual trend averaged (in magnitude) 1°C/century—which is greater than the trend claimed for global temperatures.

A prize of $100 000 (one hundred thousand U.S. dollars) will be awarded to the first person, or group of people, who correctly identifies at least 900 series: which series were generated by a trendless process and which were generated by a trending process.

Contest entries should be emailed to me (doug dot keenan at informath.org). Each entry in the contest must be accompanied by a payment of $10; this is being done to inhibit non-serious entries.

The contest closes at the end of 30 November 2016, or when someone submits a prize-winning answer, whichever comes first.

When the contest closes, the computer program (including the random seed) that generated the 1000 series will be posted here. As an additional check, the file Answers1000.txt identifies which series were generated by a trendless process and which by a trending process. The file is encrypted. The encryption key and method will also be posted here when the contest closes.

Contestants have until November 2016. However, I don’t expect any current “climate scientist” to rise to the challenge. I don’t expect that the “climate politicians” such as John Kerry to even understand the issue.

Addendum on 18th August 2016 from Doug Keenan:

18 August 2016
A paper by Lovejoy et al. was published in Geophysical Research Letters. The paper is about the Contest.

The paper is based on the assertion that “Keenan claims to have used a stochastic model with some realism”; the paper then argues that the Contest model has inadequate realism. The paper provides no evidence that I have claimed that the Contest model has adequate realism; indeed, I do not make such a claim. Moreover, my critique of the IPCC statistical analyses (discussed above) argues that no one can choose a model with adequate realism. Thus, the basis for the paper is invalid. The lead author of the paper, Shaun Lovejoy, was aware of that, but published the paper anyway.

When doing statistical analysis, the first step is to choose a model of the process that generated the data. The IPCC did indeed choose a model. I have only claimed that the model used in the Contest is more realistic than the model chosen by the IPCC. Thus, if the Contest model is unrealistic (as it is), then the IPCC model is even more unrealistic. Hence, the IPCC model should not be used. Ergo, the statistical analyses in the IPCC Assessment Report are untenable, as the critique argues.

For an illustration, consider the following. Lovejoy et al. assert that the Contest model implies a typical temperature change of 4 °C every 6400 years—which is too large to be realistic. Yet the IPCC model implies a temperature change of about 41 °C every 6400 years. (To confirm this, see Section 8 of the critique and note that 0.85×6400/133 = 41.) Thus, the IPCC model is far more unrealistic than the Contest model, according to the test advocated by Lovejoy et al. Hence, if the test advocated by Lovejoy et al. were adopted, then the IPCC statistical analyses are untenable.

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“ISIS first, Assad later” gains traction but St. Jeremy makes UK the weakest European actor against ISIS

November 18, 2015

Most of Europe is now falling behind the Russian strategy of “ISIS first, Assad later” as being the only viable way forward in Syria. The UK is also acquiescing with this line, but only verbally, since it is prevented from making any strikes in Syria without parliamentary authority to do so. With the self-canonised St. Jeremy Corbyn now in charge of the Labour party, such a vote may be a long time coming. After Paris, Hollande – though a St. Jeremy soul-mate in normal times – is forced to go all out against ISIS and is now coordinating attacks with Russia. Even Germany is considering supporting military action against ISIS. France has invoked a treaty provision for the first time ever and called for support from the other EU countries. All EU countries have promised that – as yet undefined – support. But the UK is now perceived as the weakest European actor against ISIS terrorism. The instant and automatic opposition of the SNP to any government motion and the naivete of St. Jeremy (which is not so innocent) has seen to that.

The Barack Obama – US led coalition’s “strategy”, if it can be called a strategy, has been to get rid of Assad at all costs. What was to happen afterwards or the question of whether Syria, as a nation , could even exist was left to the future to determine. It has been Russia’s reluctance to abandon Assad and his regime which has prevented any UN resolutions of any significance. Before the Russians recently started their attacks on ISIS they tried to rally support for the strategy of attacking ISIS and other rebels/terrorists first (which would help Assad) and then arranging for Assad to leave the scene after ensuring a transition to something sustainable. Obama and Kerry virtually dismissed that idea but did not go so far as to set themselves up against any Russian strikes on ISIS. The US and their coalition partners did, however, try and project the view that Russian intervention was more harmful than helpful.

After the Russian passenger plane was destroyed by – it is claimed – ISIS, the Western objections to the targets of the Russian strikes were a little more muted. Now after Paris, France has signed up to the line of “ISIS first, Assad later”. The rest of Europe is falling-in line with the notable exception of the UK. The Kurds love this, the Turks don’t. Saudi Arabia is very apprehensive that even if Assad eventually goes, a Shia government could still remain in place. Besides, they are reluctant to be seen to be accepting the demise of a Sunni organisation, even if it is as murderous as ISIS. From Kerry’s recent statements it seems as if the US is preparing the ground to also accept this strategy though the US, of course, can never be seen to falling-in behind Russia.

One way for the UK to save face and even get involved in Syria, would be if a UN resolution establishing “ISIS first, Assad later” could be accepted in the Security Council. Possibly the UK could propose it and recover some of the face they have already lost. Neither the Russians or the US would then veto such a resolution, though one or both might abstain depending upon the text. But it should not be impossible in the present climate. That would give the hapless St, Jeremy something to hide behind when a vote is called for in parliament. But he has already cost the UK a great deal of political clout in the fight against ISIS.

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Record number of German households have electricity disconnected following high prices

November 18, 2015

The German Energiwende is proving to be an embarrassing  fiasco, at an enormous cost – to producers as well as consumers – and with no returns. The only plus that can be discerned is to the ego of the “green” parties. Germany has the highest electricity prices in Europe directly as a result of the renewable energy surcharges. There is one small group of people which has benefited hugely. That has been the developers of renewable energy projects who have managed to build plants with very little of their own equity. They have then transferred ownership to plant operators and have shortened their own payback periods and maximised their returns.  Equipment manufacturers have seen their prices tumble, plant operators have seen their returns decline and consumers have seen their prices increase. But the developers have walked away with huge returns.

And it has all been for nothing.

The correlation between residential electricity price and installed renewable capacity is compelling. From Energy Matters.

The Y-axis shows residential electricity prices for the second half of 2014 from Eurostat. The X-axis installed wind + solar capacity for 2014 as reported in the 2015 BP statistical review normalised to W per capita using population data for 2014 as reported by the UN.

Now Der Spiegel reports:

Because of rising prices, more and more German citizens are unable to pay their electricity bills. In 2014, 351,802 residential households were disconnected, reports the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) and the Federal Cartel Office in its new monitoring report. 

The number of disconnections  increased to the highest value ever recorded. In 2013, 344.798 cuts had been imposed and in 2012 there were approximately 320,000 disconnections. Yet far more households have problems with their electricity bill. According to the Federal Network Agency suppliers threatened their customers with disconnections a total of 6.3 million times.

The main reason for the increasing number of disconnections are the rapidly rising electricity prices. Since 2002, the costs for consumers almost doubled, partly because the levy for renewables rose, and because while the big power utilities reduced costs, these were not passed on to consumers.

The main victims are the households. Their electricity costs are around 45 percent higher than the EU average of 20.52 Euro cents per kilowatt hour. Adjusted for taxes industrial electricity price however is 6.27 cents per kilowatt hour, well below the EU average of 9.37 Euro cents per kilowatt hour.

For 2016, several utilities have already announced further increases. On average, this will be just over three per cent, which would mean an additional cost of approximately 40 euros per year for a four-person household.  .. Further increases are expected to be announced in the coming week. Customers must be notified of planned price changes for 2016 by November 20th. Experience has shown that many send these unpopular letters at the last minute.

The Energiwende has indeed been a revolution but it has not functioned as it was meant to. Costs have increased sharply and nothing has been achieved for the climate.

Because, of course, it couldn’t.

NoTricksZone comments:

It’s a glaring paradox of the Energiewende: On the production side, power plants are losing billions of euros because they can no longer even get a modest price for their power, while on the consumer side more and more households are unable to afford the skyrocketing prices brought on by the mandatory infusion of expensive and unstable green energies into the German power grid. The once mighty German power grid now teeters on the brink of crumbling.

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