North Korea’s Dear Leader Kim Jong-il passed away yesterday at the age of 69.
He will be succeeded (probably) by Kim Jong-Un but exactly who he is is a matter of some speculation.
My crystal ball tells me that the reunification of Korea will be a reality within 5 years. The scenario I see is that after much noise and threats the North will ask for help – mainly for food. S Korean industrialists will get heavily involved in these “compassionate” projects and will develop the North Korean market in the interests of their own conglomerates. And then the changes will escalate and will be irreversible.
Nearly all countries and even China publicly support the reunification of the Koreas. But this will be a much more traumatic process than the German reunification – which was not cheap and is not complete even after 20 years. With a population of about 50 million in the South and about 25 million in the North it will inevitably seem like an “acquisition” of the North by the South. While the 25 million is a mouth-watering additional (and captive) market for the industrial conglomerates of the South, the social pressures of what should be seen to be a “merger” appearing to be an acquisition would place an unprecedented and formidable challenge for the politicians of the South. The politicians themselves have a reputation for being in the pockets of the various chaebols and whether they will have the vision and skill to manage the social upheaval remains to be seen.
Though the process may well start within the next 5 years, it will likely take much longer to complete than the German experience.
Kim Jong-Un
The k2p blog 