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Osama is surely dead but “evidence” is now irrelevant and The New Great Game goes on

May 4, 2011

The information / misinformation is building up.

The truth will probably never be known but this is the region where truth itself is never certain. From the time of Alexander and Darius this is the region of the world where nothing is as it may seem, where there are more layers of intrigue and deceit and lies and misinformation than on the largest onion imaginable. Truth is undefined. Memories are selective. Reality is whatever perception says it is.   History will record whatever comes out in the TV documentary / soap opera that is probably already under production. With the developments in North Africa and the Middle East, a new path to revolution and reform has developed and has proven to be far more effective in meeting the aspirations of people than the mindless violence of Osama.  Maybe I am just an optimist but I think this confirms that Al Queda and their methods are becoming irrelevant.

  • He was armed – He was not armed.
  • He used one of his wives as a body shield –  He did not.
  • She was killed – She was not.
  • She was shot in the leg – She was shot in the head.
  • He was killed in front of his daughter – He was alone.
  • The Pakistani ISI knew where he was – They did not.
  • The Pakistani Army knew where he was – They did not.
  • Photos will be released (CIA) – Photos are too gruesome to be released (White House).
  • His body was dumped from a helicopter – He was put in a coffin and cast into the sea from a warship.
Al-Qaeda: The next generation; An al-Qaeda training camp outside Mogadishu, Somalia. Jihadists are expected to wage a long war of attrition against the West; AP

Al Queda - now without a cause

On consideration I now think the hasty burial at sea and the lack of photographs and the “conflicting” stories and the general mystery have worked very well. If it was an intentional strategy to surround the “evidence” with mystery then it has probably been very clever. Myths may continue but they would have continued anyway no matter what evidence were produced. Strangely the burden of proof has now shifted to those who may wish to claim that he is alive. If the world acts as if Osama is dead then he will be effectively impotent and dead even if he is skulking in some cave in Afghanistan or some ISI safe-house in Pakistan.

Osama bin Laden is no more but The New Great Game goes on.

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Posted in Behaviour, Politics | 1 Comment »

Food for conspiracy theories — Osama bin Laden “buried” at sea

May 2, 2011
A still of 2004 Osama bin Laden video

Image via Wikipedia

The New York Times reports that Osama bin Laden has been buried at sea.

In a dramatic late-night appearance in the East Room of the White House, Mr. Obama declared that “justice has been done” as he disclosed that American military and C.I.A.operatives had finally cornered Bin Laden, the Al Qaeda leader who had eluded them for nearly a decade. American officials said Bin Laden resisted and was shot in the head. He was later buried at sea.

If anything will feed all the theories that Osama died a long time ago, or that he was / is a US agent, or that he has been supplied with a new identity and is living safely in luxury somewhere in the Americas, it is the news released by the US Administration that he has been buried at sea. Now he can live forever!

It does seem strange that after a man-hunt for the most wanted man ever and which has lasted almost ten years that the evidence was disposed off so easily and so quickly and without any fanfare. Something smells.

The picture of the dead Osama on Pakistan TV seems to have a beard which is identical to that from a picture taken many years ago (2004?). It is plausible that the picture of the dead Osama is a montage. That the position of the open mouth, the teeth and the beard could be identical in 2 pictures taken years apart with one in life and one in death does strain credulity. 

Photo of dead Osama seems to have been photoshopped

Somebody was buried at sea. But whether it was Osama or somebody else is open to question.

A remarkably inept piece of PR – or perhaps the conspiracy theories do have some basis and this is actually a remarkably clever piece of misinformation.

Some of the conspiracy theories doing the rounds:

Version1: Somebody else was buried at sea and

  • Osama’s body is being secretly transported to the US where it will be minutely dissected, or
  • this covers up the fact that
    • Osama died a long time ago, or
    • Osama was a US agent and is living with a new identity, or
    • the terrorist known as Osama never actually existed and was created after 9/11.

Version 2: Osama died a long time ago – whereabouts unknown – and President Obama released this information at a time when he needed some good news for domestic politics and the body had to be “disposed off” quickly to make the story “unverifiable”.

Version 3: The persona known as Osama bin Laden had to be “killed off” so that the person acting out the Osama identity (name unknown) could be groomed to take over in Saudi Arabia when the monarchy falls.

Related: Osama bin Laden dead – but he changed our world

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Posted in Behaviour, Politics | 8 Comments »

Osama bin Laden dead – but he changed our world

May 2, 2011

All the deaths in the US, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan and in bomb attacks in many European, African and Middle-East countries can be linked to the events of September 11th 2001 and to Osama bin Laden. Whatever the subsequent duplicity and stupidity of Bush and Blair and Howard, they were merely reacting to what bin Laden had set in motion. Bush’s thirst for revenge in Iraq was enabled therefore by bin Laden.

Bin Laden’s body will no doubt be displayed as evidence buried at sea with DNA collected and there will be much celebration and jubilation in some quarters. There will be dismay and – hopefully – some despair and fatigue among those who use mindless violence for their political aims. The response to the events of 9/11 itself has perpetuated the cycle of violence and has even legitimised the use of terrorism as a political tool. Collateral damage has become acceptable. All manner of “means” have become justifiable and acceptable where the purpose has been the “War on Terror”. Fundamental values have been subject to new limitations and constraints. Using violence to effect regime change in other countries  is no longer taboo. Mass arrests, torture, pre-emptive strikes across country borders and the assassination of  political enemies have become legitimate actions for even “democratic” nations.  All that had been achieved in terms of civil liberties, human rights, freedom to travel and freedom to work since the end of the World War II suffered a massive setback after 9/11.

Ten years on his death is of course a milestone of great symbolic importance. But his death will not provide any simple closure to the  “War on Terror”. All the different political movements around the world which now use mindless violence and suicide bombers in public places will not cease their actions. The Al Quaida networks will not suddenly dissolve. The extremists will not disappear. But perhaps the long-term futility of using such mindless violence will become more obvious to them.

The developments in Tunisia and Egypt were not precisely what bin Laden wanted. He would have preferred a religious uprising. But the rise of the “democratic” yearnings in North Africa and the Middle East could also not have happened before 9/11. Even if the regime in Saudi Arabia is still in place and any democratic movement there is still a long way off, the popular expression of the fundamental yearnings of people  is irreversible and will not be denied.

Osama bin Laden will live in infamy far longer than Bush or Blair. The world after 9/11 is not the same as it was before bin Laden struck. 

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Posted in Behaviour, Extremism, Politics | 2 Comments »

Saints galore – but plenty of room in Heaven for many more

May 1, 2011

BBC:

The late Pope, John Paul II, has been officially beatified at a ceremony at the Vatican in front of hundreds of thousands of Catholic faithful. Among those at St Peter’s Square is French nun Marie Simon-Pierre, who says she was cured of Parkinson’s Disease. Her apparently miraculous cure is part of the case for the beatification, the last stage before sainthood.

It comes amid criticism of the Church for the speed of the beatification and the clerical child sex abuse scandal. Much of the abuse occurred while John Paul II was Pope, from 1979-2005, and the Church has been criticised for not doing enough to punish those found responsible.

Police in Rome estimated that one million people had come to the city for the event, including large numbers of pilgrims from the late Pope’s native Poland. 

St Peter’s Square, in the Vatican, was packed, with the faithful waving banners and flags as Pope Benedict XVI declared his predecessor blessed, or beatified. Rome has not seen crowds of this size since the death of Pope John Paul II six years ago when some three million pilgrims converged on the Italian capital, says the BBC’s Vatican correspondent David Willey.

Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe was among those attending the beatification. A Roman Catholic, he was given special permission by the EU to fly to Italy despite being the subject of a travel ban.

Recent beatifications

  • Oct 2003: Mother Teresa, 1910-1997
  • March 2008: Marianna Donati, 1848-1925
  • Sept 2008: Michal Sopocko, 1888-1975
  • Sept 2010: John Henry Newman, Cardinal, 1801-1890

Steps to sainthood

The process, which cannot begin until at least five years after the candidate’s death unless the pope waives that waiting period, involves scrutinising evidence of their holiness, work and signs that people are drawn to prayer through their example:

  • First stage: individual is declared a ‘servant of God’
  • Second stage: individual is called ‘venerable’
  • Third stage (requires a miracle attributed to candidate’s intercession): beatification, when individual is declared blessed
  • Fourth stage (requires a further authenticated miracle): candidate is canonised as a saint for veneration by Church
But the beatification, canonisation and recognition of Saints is a highly political process – and always has been. It is the Catholic Church’s version of an Honours system and canonisation carries with it many benefits for the region or Order or community the Saint comes from. There are also certain business benefits which flow as a consequence of sainthood and usually associated with the viewing of relics, sales of souvenirs and the promotion of religious tourism.

John Paul reformed the sainthood process in 1983, making it faster, simpler, and cheaper. The office of “Devil’s advocate” – an official whose job was to try to knock down the case for sainthood – was eliminated, and the required number of miracles was dropped.

The idea was to lift up contemporary role models of holiness in order to convince a jaded secular world that sanctity is alive in the here and now. The results are well known: John Paul II beatified and canonised more people than all previous popes combined.

There are over 10,000 named saints and beatified people from history, the Roman Martyrology and Orthodox sources, but no definitive head count. 

The Catholic Church teaches that it does not, in fact, make anyone a saint. Rather, it recognizes a saint. In the Church, the title of Saint refers to a person who has been formally canonized (officially recognized) by the Catholic Church, and is therefore believed to be in Heaven. By this definition there are many people believed to be in Heaven who have not been formally declared as saints (most typically due to their obscurity and the involved process of formal canonization) but who may nevertheless generically be referred to as saints. All in Heaven are, in the technical sense, saints, since they are believed to be completely perfected in holiness. Unofficial devotions to uncanonized individuals take place in certain regions. Sometimes the word “saint” is used to refer to Christians still sojourning here on earth.

Yesterday apart from a few minutes on the TV news I managed to avoid watching the massive political PR exercise represented by the Royal Wedding. Today I watched a few minutes of the beatification ceremonies and even if it sounds cynical, I could not help thinking that it was just another political and stage-managed PR exercise. No doubt the ritual and the pomp and the ceremony on display at both events fulfils some deep-seated human needs. 

It is fortunate that Heaven lies in the realm of the infinite and there can be little cause to worry about over-crowding (and again I can’t help wondering if there are any cases of some unfortunate people who have been recognised and proclaimed as Saints but who – for God knows whatever reason – are languishing in the Other Place).

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Saab fights liquidity crisis while Victor Muller plays a game

April 6, 2011
Victor Muller, Founder and CEO of Spyker Cars,...

Image via Wikipedia

SAAB’s production has ground to a halt again and will probably not start again for a week because suppliers are not being paid and they are stopping supplies. But Victor Muller still gets his bonus for following the business plan which suggests that the cash crisis is being engineered.

Over the weekend, Victor Muller was very critical of the suppliers who stopped deliveries when they didn’t get paid and accused them of carrying out negotiations in the media. He denied that SAAB Automobiles had any long standing liquidity crisis and that they were merely renegotiating supplier terms and conditions.

But a continuing shortage of supplies has caused the production line at SAAB to have stopped again and it may stand still till next Tuesday. It seems clear that Victor Muller will drive SAAB to the verge of bankruptcy to ensure that Vladimir Antonov can be seen as a rescuing angel and allowed in as SAAB’s owner. He may even drive it through a bankruptcy. Whether it is Victor Muller just playing his games or whether it is a strategy being directed by Antonov is not clear. But cash flow is the fundamental basis of any business plan of substance and it seems apparent to me that a good part of the cash crunch is being engineered by Muller / Spyker and probably Antonov.

Is cash crunch just a ruse to get SAAB into Russian ownership?

Dagens Industri reports:

On Tuesday Automaker Saab stopped production at the plant in Trollhättan. Sources said that the stop will be extended until Tuesday next week. Yesterday’s stop is the third in a week, and is caused by the car manufacturer’s problems in paying subcontractors on time.

Saab’s CIO Eric Geers would not confirm that production will be stationary for that long, but said that production has stopped until the material problems are solved. The company is working right now to resolve the funding issue.

“We are working really hard to find a solution and are trying to get started as quickly as possible. At the same time we want to get rid of this jerky production flow, “he says.

…….  Saab management’s way of responding to concerns and criticism on this occasion has not been the best.

Meanwhile Svenska Dagbladet reported:

Victor Muller regrets that Saab presented a target for number of vehicles to be produced and distributed. Last year the forecast had to be reduced twice, which increased uncertainties regarding the company’s survival power. “It’s our own fault. We should never have gone out with some predictions. It’s so easy to measure that all else is lost sight of. The fact that we stayed within the business plan is ignored.

Retiring CEO Jan Ake Jonsson, admits that liquidity has become more strained in the second half of the first quarter. “There are a number of different reasons and I can not go into these because a variety of partners are involved”, he said before a large number of journalists who come to Saab’s spring exhibition. Jonsson stated that Saab has been very, very close to the expectations of the business plan. “In relation to the lower sales, we have managed to keep costs low”.

That they stayed within the business plan is the reason that both Muller and Jonsson got bonuses though Saab made a net loss of nearly two billion kronor last year. Victor Muller has no qualms in maintaining his 4.5 million kronor ($0.7 million) in bonus on top of his salary and other benefits. Overall, it means that he got a remuneration in 2010 worth around 14 million kronor ($2.2 million), according to Dagens Industri.

Of course Muller does not explain how they managed to stay within the business plan but ran out of cash. Or perhaps cash flow was not included in his business plan.


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Posted in Automobiles, Business, Ethics, Politics | 4 Comments »

Cracks appear in the Gaddafi façade

April 4, 2011

It was a only matter of time before the survival reflex started to kick in and start the propagation of cracks within the façade surrounding the Gaddafi family and clan. But replacing him with one of his sons would be a case of one step forward and two back.

As the NYT reports:

Saif al-Islam el-Gaddafi

At least two sons of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi are proposing a resolution to the Libyan conflict that would entail pushing their father aside to make way for a transition to a constitutional democracy under the direction of his son Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, a diplomat and a Libyan official briefed on the plan said Sunday.

…. The proposal offers a new window into the dynamics of the Qaddafi family at a time when the colonel, who has seven sons, is relying heavily on them. Stripped of one of his closest confidantes by the defection of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa and isolated by decades of attempted coups and internal purges, he is leaning on his sons as trusted aides and military commanders.

The idea also touches on longstanding differences among his sons. While Seif and Saadi have leaned toward Western-style economic and political openings, Colonel Qaddafi’s sons Khamis and Mutuassim are considered hard-liners. Khamis leads a fearsome militia focused on repressing internal unrest.

Saif al-Islam el-Gaddafi is thought to have plagiarised his PhD thesis at the LSE but considering the former German Defence Minister’s plagiarism perhaps this is an acceptable level of ethics for European politicians!

Related: Gaddafi’s children are a motley – but dangerous – lot


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Juholt continues his Stalinesque purge

April 1, 2011
Håkan Juholt continues with his Stalinesque purge of the Swedish Social Democrats. Male social democrats who are out of favour are being replaced on the grounds of being the wrong sex! But sex discrimination in this form is of course politically correct.
Purges continue in the Social Democratic party leader after the change. Now it is the turn  of the assigned group leader in parliament, Sven-Erik Osterberg, who was one of candidates to become the new party leader, to go.
A new leader will be appointed at the parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday next week. Who  the new team leader will be is unclear. According to Rapport’s sources  the new party leader Håkan Juholt plans to fill the post with a woman. He has been in talks with party colleagues and said that it is important to have a woman in the post  to get a reasonably even gender balance in leadership positions in the party.
Sven-Erik Osterberg wanted to remain as leader, but after talks with Håkan Juholt agreed to step down.

Earlier Ibrahim Baylan was forced to quit a Party Secretary to make way for Carin Jämtin. This was necessary since the new Party Leader was a male and had to be “balanced” by a female Party Secretary! And now the unfortunate Osterberg is also apparently of the wrong sex. Sounds as if this is yet another case of  politically correct  sex discrimination being used to implement a political purge.

In the modern Social Democrats, competence is of little value if you are the wrong sex.

Related:  Juholt, the smiling Stalin, begins the purge as the Social Democrats try to relive the past

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Blood and oil in the sand: Is Gaddafi still getting the money from Libyan oil?

March 27, 2011

Apparently Libyan oil is still flowing while bombs are falling .

But who is getting the money for the oil?

And is oil the only reason why the West and Nato are supporting the rebels in Libya but not those opposing the oppresive regime in Bahrain?

Der Spiegel:

Are countries involved in the international operation in Libya hypocritical? That, it would seem, is the belief of German Development Minister Dirk Niebel, who criticized participants for continuing to draw oil from Libya. The comments show just how wide the gap between Berlin and its NATO allies has become. …

On Thursday evening,  Dirk Niebel  a member of Merkel’s junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), accused the United Nations-backed military alliance currently operating in Libya of hypocrisy. 

“It is notable that exactly those countries which are blithely dropping bombs in Libya are still drawing oil from Libya,” he said.

Niebel also said that Germany was “not consulted” by France prior to the start of the campaign in Libya and added that European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton’s coordination of the EU position on Libya had been “suboptimal.”

Niebel’s comments came on the heels of a demand by Merkel, made during the ongoing European Union summit in Brussels, for a complete oil embargo against Libya. The international community, she said, “must clearly show that we will not do business with anyone who wages war against his own people.” …..

And the implied accusation that oil interests are one motivation behind the Libya mission is not likely to be well received in Western capitals. …

Meanwhile, on Thursday, an agreement was reached among NATO member states that the trans-Atlantic alliance would take control of the no-fly zone over Libya.

Towns, tribes and oil fields of Libya.

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Posted in Germany, Libya, North Africa, Politics | 1 Comment »

Gaddafi & family activate Plan B to save themselves

March 25, 2011

That Gaddafi and family are not the kind to die heroically fighting to the last breath for some matter of principle is fairly clear. That their private aircraft were flitting around the world a few weeks ago secretly shifting and hiding their assets is an educated presumption. It seems increasingly likely that a “Plan B” for survival anda re-grouping is being put into effect as the “no-fly zone” and sanctions and the world-wide freezing of Libyan assets takes effect.

Belarus – not Venezuela – maybe Gaddafi’s bolt-hole

Map indicating location of Belarus and Libya

Belarus and Libya: image Wikipedia

My reading is that the family have already prepared their bolt hole most probably in Belarus and that Venezuela and Cuba are not viable. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are remotely possible. I would not be surprised if the sudden flight of his nurse Galyna Kolotnytska back to Ukraine at the end of February was executed as part of Plan B. But the problem for Gaddafi and his family is now to arrange a “safe passage” to wherever the bolt-hole has been prepared.

Reuters reports:

Members of Muammar Gaddafi’s entourage are putting out feelers to seek a ceasefire or safe passage from Libya.

Roger Tamraz, a Middle Eastern businessman with long experience conducting deals with the Libyan regime said Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Muammar’s eldest son, and Abdullah Senoussi, the Libyan leader’s brother-in-law, were the most prominent Gaddafi entourage members involved in seeking ways to end the fighting. A U.S. national security official, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said that U.S. government agencies were aware that Saif al-Islam and Senoussi had been involved in making peace overtures.

“It’s clear that some of Gaddafi’s family members always have a plan B up their sleeve. That doesn’t mean they’ll leave and certain Gaddafis are probably going to stick with their crazy dad no matter what happens,” the U.S. official said.

In an interview on Tuesday with a U.S. television network, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was aware that people close to Gaddafi had been trying to make contact.

“I’m not aware that he personally has reached out, but I do know that people allegedly on his behalf have been reaching out,” Clinton told ABC America’s Diane Sawyer.

“This is what we hear from so many sources…Today, yesterday, the day before. Some of it…is theater, some of it is kind of, shall we say, game-playing…But some of it, we think, is exploring, ‘what are my options, where could I go, what could I do.’ And we would encourage that,” Clinton said.

The U.S. national security official added: “It’s not at all surprising that members of the Gaddafi regime might be looking for ways out of this mess.” …..

Tamraz told Reuters that some of the most aggressive efforts by members of Gaddafi’s entourage to start dialogue were being channeled through Austria. A European government financial investigator said that Libya was believed to have extensive wealth and investments in Austria.

Tamraz said that he believed Saif al-Islam, Senoussi and other members of the Gaddafi entourage were proposing a ceasefire between government forces, rebels and the anti-Gaddafi Western alliance, or plans which would enable members of the Libyan leader’s entourage to go into exile peacefully.


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Juholt, the smiling Stalin, begins the purge as the Social Democrats try to relive the past

March 22, 2011

The Social Democrats in Sweden will have their convention at the end of this week where Håkan Juholt will be confirmed by a vast majority, if not unanimously, as their new leader. It will all seem very democratic of course even though the party’s Nomination Committee produced his name out of a hat at the last minute after a very obscure and confusing process reminiscent of a Soviet style politburo election in action.

Håkan Juholt : image ulf-vargek.blogspot.com

While Juholt’s physical resemblance to a smiling Stalin is meant partly in jest, the coup by the left wing of the party and the subsequent purge of the more moderate and “right-wing” leaders is anything but a jest. There may not be much real blood spilled in these days but the elimination of the “opposition” is as ruthless as anything Stalin perpetrated. In an organisational sense the Social Democrats are the true inheritors of the power broking style of the communist parties of the Soviet bloc. The smoke-filled rooms are gone (since this is Sweden and smoking is almost as sinful as any hint of male chauvinism and certainly more sinful than paedophilia) but the back-rooms are still around and the influence of the power brokers still reigns supreme.

Of course a new leader will appoint his friends around him. But guilt by association has been created as a new sin within the Social Democrats. The Nomination Committee has done its job well and prepared the way for a purge. Where unwanted individuals actually proposed policies more in line with the electorate, they have been blamed for the election defeat without reference to policies so that they can be removed. Where favoured individuals backed the losing policies they have anyway been “promoted” as being the instruments of rejuvenation. But all of this is merely an attempt to step back to the “good old times” of 40 years ago.

The Svenska Dagbladet writes:

The ousting of Ylva Johansson and Thomas Östros is extraordinary. The latter is being punished for being Mona Sahlin’s candidate for finance minister. There seems also to be a new principle that not only the leader shall be held accountable for policy failures.

It looks like a shift to the left. (So the Social Democrats) dismiss Thomas Östros who criticized the Social Democrats’ fiscal policies from the right and selects Veronica Palm who has defended the tax policy adopted before the election.

I wonder how long it will take for the Social Democrats to realise that trying to recreate “good old times” is a cul-de-sac.


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Posted in Behaviour, Politics, Sweden | 2 Comments »

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