The various catastrophe scenarios based on the depletion of a limited resource (peak-oil, peak-gas, peak-energy, peak-food……….) have a fundamental weakness – they fail to account for human ingenuity and technological advance. History has shown that such Malthusian scenarios just do not come to pass. New discoveries change the availability of the resource, innovation and technology find alternatives and economics changes pricing and the supply/demand dynamics.
OPEC acknowledged for the first time on Thursday that technology for extracting oil and gas from shale is changing the global supply picture significantly ……
In its annual World Oil Outlook, OPEC cut its forecast of global oil demand to 2016 due to economic weakness and also increased its forecast of supplies from countries outside the 12-nation exporters’ group.
“Given recent significant increases in North American shale oil and shale gas production, it is now clear that these resources might play an increasingly important role in non-OPEC medium- and long-term supply prospects,” the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in the report.
OPEC has been slower than some to acknowledge the impact that new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing – known as “fracking” – may have on supply.
The hype about electric cars is just one more example of environmental alarmism leading to bad decisions. The list of “bad decisions” made to appease environmentalism is long and getting longer. Wind power before its time and solar power before it was commercially viable have only helped to increase the costs to the consumer but they have been a windfall for those who have managed to “milk” the subsidies. The electric car fiasco is no different. Billions have been wasted in subsidising something that is not commercial and in trying to skew the market in the hope of artificially creating a demand where there is none. But a few have managed to live very well off the subsidies. Some day electric cars may well become commercially viable and when they do it will not be because an environmental lobby group or a government merely wished for it but because the technology and supply network then will be sufficiently developed to offer the consumer a superior product at a reasonable price.
The simple reality is that:
electric car batteries are still too heavy and take too long to charge
the range they provide is too short
the cars are too expensive
More importantly the ostensible reason for subsidising the technology – as being for the cutting of carbon dioxide emissions to try and reverse natural climate change – is both based on a false premise and futile.
“The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society’s needs, whether it may be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how it takes a long time to charge,” said, Uchiyamada, who spearheaded Toyota’s development of the Prius hybrid in the 1990s.
Passwords, Userid’s and 4-digit codes are the bane of my life and I am still waiting for the computer which knows – uniquely and reliably – whenever I happen to be using it. I am probably very average when I find that I have twelve different passwords, five different Userid’s and eight 4-digit codes that I use regularly and which – so far – I generally manage to keep separate in my memory. As I get older I expect I shall have increasing difficulty in remembering and keeping track of these. I find that – already – I sometimes refrain from taking on new commitments, buying new on-line services, joining new groups or registering at new sites if I need to find yet another password to be remembered. The need for defining and remembering new passwords is now – in fact – limiting the extent to which I use the on-line world.
New models of computers, tablets and smart phones are released – it seems – every other day. For at least the last 10 years the possibility of personal identification of the user by the device has promised much but has not yet delivered. I look forward to each release eagerly only to be disappointed each time. Each new device has new features. It can do more, remember more, is faster or more “intelligent” or has a larger memory but none has the capability to know – for sure – who I am.
One of these days I will be able to switch on my device (computer, phone whatever) and it will know that it is “I” – and nobody else – who is operating the device and I will need no further passwords or pin-codes to access any connection or my account at any site through that particular device. That’s the dream.
In the meantime the search goes on but I am not sure that this aspect of “customer-friendliness” is very high up on the priority list. But it should be. I foresee a new explosion in on-line usage when a secure method of personal identification becomes available. PC manufacturers have been trying to use fingerprint recognition for some time, Intel is working on palm recognition and Apple is working on face recognition. Keystroke authentication, retina prints and other biometric or behavioural patterns have also been suggested. But before my dream is realised, the manufacturers have to hone in on a few methods which have then to be exhaustively tested before being widely accepted. New international standards will have to be agreed and established before the banks and insurance and credit card companies accept the identification method as being sufficiently secure.
It remains a dream – but passwords have to become obsolete sometime and I do hope it happens within the next two years.
The Leader of the Luddites, engraving of 1812: Wikipedia
This editorial in The Australian about shale gas got me to wondering how it has come to pass that what were once very laudable anti-pollution goals have morphed into an anti-technology and essentially anti-human movement. Luddites have always been among us and always need – and have always needed – a cloak of righteousness under which to operate. The current demonisation of technological advance has its roots – I think – in the politicisation of the concern for “the environment” which probably began in the 1960’s. As long as “environmentalism” focused on improvement of local conditions it did much good. It has contributed much to the clean-up of air and water pollution which had resulted from the speed of industrialisation. While industrialisation and technological development were necessary for growth and to ensure that humans could put food on their tables, the drive against pollution did much to improve their quality of life. But then the Luddites – who have always been around – “found” evironmentalism. The destructive forces had found a new righteous cover – this time coloured green. Politicisation and globalisation have now transformed what was once a relatively simple anti-pollution campaign focused on improving the quality of life for humans into something else – a fanatical movement with religious overtones. A coercive, destructive, backward-looking, anti-development, anti-human Green Monster.
The Green movement has become the cloak under which modern Luddites can hide and operate.
POLITICAL parties preoccupied with environmental protection, including the Greens, should take on board the benefits of breakthrough technology that is already allowing easier access to shale gas in the US.
As environment editor Graham Lloyd reports today, with 250 years’ worth of gas reserves now in play, the shale revolution is cutting power costs and carbon emissions and increasing energy supplies. In the longer term, it promises energy security, export earnings and stability as the West’s dependence on Middle East oil diminishes.
The unexpected emergence of shale, foreseen by very few four or five years ago, underlines the folly of governments trying to “pick winners” by investing in various forms of renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, which will only be viable on a large scale if technology improves.
Too little attention has been paid to Australia’s vast shale reserves, which are potentially far bigger than coal-seam gas. Apart from the volume of water needed to access it, shale poses fewer environmental problems than coal-seam gas. The geological formations are more stable and located in more remote areas. Given the reluctance of our politicians to pursue nuclear power, shale has the potential to be an important energy source for decades.
In over 30 years in power generation I have yet to see a convincing case of public subsidies in the market place actually helping to commercialise new technologies. I have seen cases where Government support at the research stage has helped to bring new areas into focus and which has eventually led to commercially driven investments which have deployed the technology. But temporarily distorting the market place by means of public subsidy is unsustainable and does not – in itself – help to make a new technology commercially viable. In fact an artificially distorted market in favour of a new technology only helps to cuccoon and insulate it such that there is no incentive left to make it competitive. Subsidies shift the focus from technology development to subsidy maximisation and when subsidies begin to be removed all creativity is wasted on prolonging subsidies.
The case of subsiding the market place for the deployment of renewable energy is a case in point. Developing technology for wind and solar power is desirable but distorting the market place to deploy wind and solar is just plain stupid and unsustainable.
Solar subsidies cost German consumers billions of dollars a year and are widely regarded as inefficient. Even environmentalists are concerned that Berlin’s focus on solar comes at the detriment of other renewables. But the solar industry has a powerful lobby, and politicians have proven powerless to resist.
…… A new study by Georg Erdmann, professor of energy systems at Berlin’s Technical University, reveals just how far Germany’s current center-right governing coalition — made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) — has strayed from its own self-imposed goals. Erdmann has calculated the effects that the latest changes to the EEG will have between now and 2030. He believes that subsidies for renewable energy, including an expansion of the power grid, will saddle energy consumers with costs well over €300 billion ($377 billion). ….
Wind power firms warn they may take the government to court if they get caught in a political row over subsidies. After conducting technical studies, the energy department proposed a subsidy cut of 10% for power from onshore wind. But the chancellor is under pressure from back-benchers to scrap subsidies, and is said to favour a 25% cut.
The industry body, Renewable UK, says it may take legal action if the government makes a decision that overrides its own technical evidence. …
New economic impact study on California’s Global Warming Solutions Act finds that the average California family will end up paying an additional $2,500 annually by 2020. In addition, the state is expected to lose an additional 262,000 jobs, 5.6 percent of the gross state product, and a whopping $7.4 billion through decreased annual state and local tax revenues as a result.
The California Manufacturers and Technology Association released a new report last week that suggests costs associated with AB 32 may be a lot higher than previously estimated. AB 32, otherwise known as the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, was signed into law by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger- propelling California to the forefront in the fight against global warming. Successful passage of the law effectively turned the state into one of the most stringent regulators of green house gas emissions in the nation and globally. Some would argue that the move all but eliminated California’s competitive edge in today’s market. ……
India test fired its Agni-V ICBM today. Initial reports are of a successful launch though details of the 20 minute flight will take some time to be analysed.
The Hindu:India demonstrated its Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capability on Thursday by successfully launching its most powerful and longest range missile, Agni-V, from the Wheeler Island off the Odisha coast.
The 17-metre-long surface-to-surface ballistic missile lifted off majestically from a rail mobile launcher at 8.04 a.m. After a flight time of 20 minutes, the missile re-entry vehicle impacted the pre-designated target point more than 5,000 kms away in the Indian Ocean with a high degree of accuracy.
Video of the launch ( from two different cameras) has already been posted on You-Tube. I can imagine that the most beautiful words for all those involved was the calm repetition of the phrase “Vehicle state is normal”.
It was high time and even though they have tried before, the new measures just announced by the Chinese Education Ministry will hopefully begin to curb the widespread plagiarism, data manipulation and even data fakery that allegedly goes on.
India needs to institutionalise something similar. The Society of Scientific Values in India is an independent body and tries valiantly to act as a watch-dog but it has no teeth and no official standing. Of course in India the danger with creating institutions under a Ministry – and therefore under a Minister – is that the institution will very quickly become politicised. And Indian politicians are perhaps not the best choice when it comes to monitoring and establishing ethical standards. Nevertheless a start has to be made and the Ministry of Science and Technology in India is the natural home of an institution to promote ethical standards in scientific research and at institutes of higher education. The key will be to provide the backing of the Ministry to give it sufficient weight but to maintain its independence from party political influences. Giving such an institution semi-judicial status is one way but could be very heavy handed.
China’s Ministry of Education on Wednesday issued new rules to supervise universities’ scientific research and academic activities in order to “effectively prevent and curb academic misconduct.”
The last few days have been full of headlines about a UN report that showed that Iran was getting help from foreign scientists to develop nuclear weapons. Speculation has been rife about pre-emptive strikes by Israel or the US against Iran’s “weapons facilities” and the consequences of such a strike. Discussions about sanctions have been wide-spread from nations to US Presidential candidates. But now it seems that the so-called UN evidence is actually nothing more than information manufactured by an intelligence agency (probably Mossad) and speculation from a Washington “think tank” which is just another lobby group. The so-called foreign nuclear scientist does not exist and is actually a prominent Ukrainian nanotechnology and nanodiamond expert, Vyacheslav Danilenko who has been in the same field all his career.
November 7th: The Washington Posts alleges that the IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability. This is of course, well, a lie. The IAEA has said nothing like that. It is simply an assertion made by the reporter and some “nuclear Iran” scare propagandists based on misinterpreting some factual points in the IAEA “evidence”. What that “evidence” says is: Iran is working on nanodiamond production.
Much Russian news just now from the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic going live today to an ambitious and critical Mars mission which will launch late today (November 8th).
Russia’s last interplanetary launch of a probe to Mars in 1996 failed at launch. Prior to that in missions to the larger of Mars’ 2 moons, Phobos 1 was launched on July 7, 1988 and Phobos 2 on July 12, 1988. Communication with Phobos 1 was lost in September 1988. Phobos 2 operated normally till it was within 50m of the surface of Phobos and again communication was lost in March 1989.
In the meantime the US Mars Rover has operated on Mars for thousands of hours, Chinese and Indian probes have reached the moon and a Japanese probe has brought back some minute quantities of matter from an asteroid. The Russians have been short of financing and are now trying to regain the pre-eminence they once had. To have the Chinese planting flags on the moon in 3 or 4 years would be unbearable.
Russian missions to Mars have never yet been completely successful and the launch on November 8th as part of the Phobos-Grunt (Фобос-Грунт meaning Phobos -soil)project is carrying a great deal of Russian prestige and – more importantly – the future of the Russian space program.
The protracted processfor the $10 billion (which will become $15 billion) contract for the supply of 126 fighter aircraft (MMRCA – Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) to the Indian Air Force is coming into its final lap. Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault’s Rafale made the short list and have been asked to submit their “best and final offers”. The financial bids will be opened on November 4th. The contract is expected to contain an option for an additional 63 aircraft.
With the decision of the defence ministry to open the financial bids early next month of the two finalists in the IAF?s medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA) tender, IAF can now hope to acquire the first lot of 18 aircraft by end-2014 or mid-2015, depending on when the contract is signed.
The ministry completed the formalities last week and sent letters Monday to representatives of Eurofighter and Rafale for opening the bids on the afternoon of Friday, November 4. The representatives would authenticate the tender packets as their own and as submitted by them earlier, in the presence of senior ministry officials, and then they would be opened by one of the designated officers. …
Although the ministry’s initial assessment was that the deal could be worth around $10 billion, the Rafale and Eurofighter should cost somewhere around $15 billion. … it was only in 2007 that a Request for Proposals (RFP), or tender, was issued to these two European companies as well as US Lockheed Martin for the F-16 Super Viper and Boeing for F/A-18 Super Hornet, Swedish Saab for the Gripen and Russia’s Rosoboronexport for Mig 29M2, later designated Mig 35.
Eurofighter Typhoon for Indian contract? image: defpro.org
The bids are valid till the end of December so the final contract could be awarded by then. But this is India and Dassault for Rafale and the Cassidian European consortium for the Eurofighter could always be asked to extend the validity or to renew their bids.
But it does seem that the long tendering and contracting process which began in 2007 is finally coming to an end.
My guess is that the Eurofighter Typhoon will be chosen.
The k2p blog 