Population Implosion? Even US fertility rates are at lower than replacement level

June 8, 2014

In Iran the Ayatollah Khamenei has announced his 14 point plan (or directive) to try and revive the fertlity rate which is at a potentially catastrophic low. In the US, Hispanic fertility rates have – in recent times – held the fertility rate up just above the replacement level of 2.1. In China the one-child policy has been withdrawn as population has reached its peak and will now decline significantly. In country after country, fertility rates are lower than the replenishment rate. In half the states in India the rate is already below 2.1. By 2050 the total Indian population will start to decline. Generally improvement in living standards with more attention to women’s rights are accompanied by a sharp decline in fertility rates. Now however, the recession is being blamed for the decline in the US.

Till 2100 the main demographic challenge is increasingly going to be the long term decline in fertility and the increasing proportion of the “aged” relative to the working population.

US TFR - Washington Examiner

US TFR – Washington Examiner

Washington Examiner:

U.S. fertility is not recovering from the financial crisis — and demographers aren’t sure why. The fertility rate fell to a record low 62.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in 2013, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

The total number of births, at 3.96 million, inched up by a mere 4,000 from 2012, the first increase since the financial crisis. But the total fertility rate, or TFR, the average number of children a woman would have during her child-bearing years, fell to just 1.86, the lowest rate in 27 years. TFR is considered the best metric of fertility. A TFR of 2.1 represents a stable population, with children replacing parents as they die off.

Demographers expected the fertility rate to fall during recession, as financially strapped families put off childbearing. But what has surprised some demographers is both the depth of the decline and the fact that fertility has continued to drop even over the course of the country’s five years of slow but steady recovery. The rate has fallen steadily each year since 2007, when it stood at 2.1 …….. 

One foreseen factor behind the dropoff in childbearing is the rapid decline in Hispanic-American fertility.

 For several decades, high Hispanic childbearing has been driving U.S. population growth. White fertility has been under the 2.1 replacement rate for decades, and ranged from 1.7 to 1.9 in the 2000s. The TFR for black Americans first fell below 2.1 in the early 2000s. 

But the number of children per Hispanic-American woman has plummeted from just under three in 1990 and 2.7 as recently as 2008 to 2.19 in 2012, just above the replacement rate.

That decline has been mirrored in other Hispanic countries. Mexico’s TFR has fallen precipitously, from 6.7 in 1970 to 2.2 in 2012, according to the World Bank. A similar decline has taken place in El Salvador, and to a lesser extent Honduras and Guatemala, all three prominent countries of origin for American Hispanics. ….

 

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Preventing extremism: Why stop European jihadists from going to Syria?

June 8, 2014

The Financial Times (paywalled) reports that “Western intelligence agencies have handed Turkish authorities the names of nearly 5,000 people they fear are attempting to travel to Syria to join al-Qaeda linked groups, in a stark illustration of the escalating terror threat posed by homegrown jihadis”.

Turkey has already deported between 1,000 and 2,000 “jihadists” back to their home countries in Europe where they then become a virulent threat.

DailyBeast: It is a scenario that counter-terrorism experts have been warning about for the past two years: a European citizen who travelled to Syria in order to join up with jihadist groups returns to Europe in order to carry out a terrorist attack. It is something we all knew eventually would become a reality and, more worryingly, knew we could not prevent.

“Moderate Islam” in European countries is conspicuous by its complete absence in holding back the extremists and the idiot fanatics. I have no doubt that most Muslims are moderate. But they have been too passive for far too long against their own extremists.  In Europe, in Africa and even in China. They have – for example – allowed the extremists to take over parts of the school system in Birmingham in the UK. But it is not just “moderate Islam” which has abdicated its responsibilities. The political establishment in Europe (mainly) has to take its share of the blame. Political correctness in Europe involves allowing all fanatics and extremists – whether from the neo-Nazis as in Ukraine or Greece or from the religious Islamic fanatics in France and the UK or from the ecofascism of the hard-left green activists – to flourish unchecked.

But I wonder why the intelligence agencies don’t just let these jihadists reach Syria? Why warn Turkey and then have them all deported back to carry out their mayhem? If the US could revoke Snowden’s passport while he was travelling, surely it would be most effective for the US and EU countries to merely revoke those of the 5,000 known to be on their way to Syria? And concentrate on preventing their return? Like it or not, in the current situation Bashar al-Assad could be best equipped to handle these fanatics.

In the long run of course the alienated youth who are then radicalised have to be addressed at home. And the best bet is if “moderate Islam” is encouraged to defuse and neutralise their idiot fanatics. The position of the political centre defines the extremes. A passive centre allows the political spectrum to be skewed towards one extreme or the other or even to reach a bifurcation. The way to prevent unacceptable extremism lies then, I think, not in trying to prevent the extreme views from forming (which is futile) but in having a sufficiently pro-active centre which effectively starves the extremists of recruits.

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California Chrome is a great horse but no Big Red

June 8, 2014

Well, California Chrome came up short. He is not the “tremendous machine” that Big Red was!

I am no horse racing fanatic but much of my lingering interest was first engendered by Big Red (Secretariat) and his exploits. Over the years my interest has declined but it was rekindled this year as the California Chrome “rags to riches” story has unfolded.

WaPo: His humble origins — born to an $8,000 mare, by a sire with a $2,000 stud fee — turned him into a cult figure and then a superstar following his wins in Louisville and Baltimore. But was he a “one-in-a-bazillion” champion, as co-owner Coburn called him this week? Or another Triple Crown pretender who lacked the stamina, sturdiness or stomach to win for the third time in five weeks against a pack of rivals?

Only 11 horses have ever won the Triple Crown. Big Red was the ninth winner after a gap of 25 years in 1973. Then Seattle Slew triumphed in 1977 and Affirmed won the Triple in 1978. And now it will be at least a gap of 37 years before there is another Triple Crown winner.  This year, California Chrome had won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and was attempting to be the 12th winner. He was the odds-on favourite, but yesterday he came up short and finished fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

Secretariat was special. When he died in 1989 his heart was found to be almost twice as large as “normal”. Big Red still holds the record for all the 3 races (the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes). Maybe he was a freak. In any case, in forty odd years of trying, genetics and horse breeding “science” have failed to produce a horse to match.

Wiki: Secretariat’s genetic legacy may be linked in part to the likelihood that he carried the “x-factor” (a trait linked to a large heart, carried only on the X chromosome) and thus, a trait Secretariat could only pass on via his daughters. However, it is yet to be proven whether the x-factor increases athletic ability.

I listened to the running of the 1973 Belmont Stakes on radio (live telecasts across the Atlantic were not around). It was not an exciting race in itself because Big Red was never threatened. It was enormously exciting as the culmination of a season. It was awe-inspiring in the manner and margin of his winning. At the finish line he was 31 lengths ahead and still going away.

But nowadays with the magic of YouTube, his majestic run is universally available.

“THE TREMENDOUS MACHINE”

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Fat pigs are happy pigs

June 7, 2014

Caesar: Let me have men about me that are fat ..

A truth known already in Shakespeare’s day and a new paper seems to confirm the adage – even if only for pigs.

Annika Maria Juul Haagensen et al, High Fat, Low Carbohydrate Diet Limit Fear and Aggression in Göttingen Minipigs, PLOS One, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093821

Nordic Science:Most of us associate the words ‘fat’ and ‘cholesterol’ with overweight, cardiovascular disease and unhealthy lifestyles but we could all be wrong, according to researchers who argue that not even the infamous saturated fats are as bad as we think they are. 

A new Danish study reveals that a diet high in fat and cholesterol makes pigs more social, less aggressive and less fearful. According to the researchers behind the study, such behaviour is associated with good health. …….. 

Even though the study was done on pigs the results would most likely be applicable to humans as well, says Annika Maria Juul Haagensen, PhD in Veterinary Disease Biology at the University of Copenhagen, who authored the study.

“It’s definitely something we should consider,” she says. “The next step is to determine how much fat is optimal for our physical and psychological health.”

Associate professor Lotte Lauritzen from the Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports at the University of Copenhagen says that’s a reasonable assumption.

“Previous studies on monkeys and rodents support these findings,” she says. “We know that our brain cells need fat to make new connections and function optimally.”

For instance, she says, too little omega 3 fat affects the serotonin system which regulates our mood. …….. 

“There are several possible explanations to the changes in behaviour we observed in the pigs that were fed more fat,” she says.

One could be that the fat and cholesterol cause an increased release of serotonin. The higher levels of serotonin could’ve changed how aggressive, depressive and anxious the pigs were.

“At the same time a study shows that cholesterol increases the permeability between brain cells and blood. This means that more nutrients are transferred from the blood to the cells,” says Haagensen.

Fat and sugar and cholestorol are not all bad and don’t quite deserve the demonisation they have been subject to.

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Overprotection of babies may increase the risk for allergies

June 7, 2014

It is often said that one in 3 in developed countries suffer from some of allergy. By the time they are 3 years old half the children in the US suffer from wheezing or asthma. It is often claimed that this is because of the various chemical compounds that modern humans have put into the atmosphere. But I am not so sure that this is the sole cause or even a significant cause. It could be that we are seeing the downside of having an obsession about dirt and being obsessively “antiseptic”  with our children.

Our immune systems need to be triggered and challenged if they are to develop. That is well enough known and is the basic fact exploited by the advances in vaccination science. But the corollary is that when we are overprotective with babies – and especially in the first year of life – a lack of exposure to these triggers prevents the immune system from developing some basic resistances and this may lead to the greater incidence of allergies later on.

It could well be that it is the obsessive cleanliness around our infants which is itself the cause of an underdeveloped immune system and the greater prevalence of allergies.

A new paper finds that some exposure to “dirt” early in life is probably a very good thing.

Susan V. Lynch et al,  Effects of early-life exposure to allergens and bacteria on recurrent wheeze and atopy in urban children. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2014; DOI:10.1016/j.jaci.2014.04.018

Abstract: 

Wheezing illnesses cause major morbidity in infants and are frequent precursors to asthma. We sought to examine environmental factors associated with recurrent wheezing in inner-city environments. …….. 

Cumulative allergen exposure over the first 3 years was associated with allergic sensitization, and sensitization at age 3 years was related to recurrent wheeze. In contrast, first-year exposure to cockroach, mouse, and cat allergens was negatively associated with recurrent wheeze (odds ratio, 0.60, 0.65, and 0.75, respectively; P ≤ .01). Differences in house dust bacterial content in the first year, especially reduced exposure to specific Firmicutes and Bacteriodetes, was associated with atopy and atopic wheeze. Exposure to high levels of both allergens and this subset of bacteria in the first year of life was most common among children without atopy or wheeze.

In inner-city environments children with the highest exposure to specific allergens and bacteria during their first year were least likely to have recurrent wheeze and allergic sensitization. These findings suggest that concomitant exposure to high levels of certain allergens and bacteria in early life might be beneficial and suggest new preventive strategies for wheezing and allergic diseases.

From the John Hopkins Press Release :

Infants who grew up in homes with mouse and cat dander and cockroach droppings in the first year of life had lower rates of wheezing at age 3, compared with children not exposed to these allergens soon after birth. The protective effect, moreover, was additive, the researchers found, with infants exposed to all three allergens having lower risk than those exposed to one, two or none of the allergens. Specifically, wheezing was three times as common among children who grew up without exposure to such allergens (51 percent), compared with children who spent their first year of life in houses where all three allergens were present (17 percent).

In addition, infants in homes with a greater variety of bacteria were less likely to develop environmental allergies and wheezing at age 3.
 
When researchers studied the effects of cumulative exposure to both bacteria and mouse, cockroach and cat allergens, they noticed another striking difference. Children free of wheezing and allergies at age 3 had grown up with the highest levels of household allergens and were the most likely to live in houses with the richest array of bacterial species. Some 41 percent of allergy-free and wheeze-free children had grown up in such allergen and bacteria-rich homes. By contrast, only 8 percent of children who suffered from both allergy and wheezing had been exposed to these substances in their first year of life.

Not all dirt is bad.

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Indian Monsoon arrives – as forecast but 5 days later than average

June 6, 2014

The long range monsoon forecast predicted that total rainfall would be at around 95% of the long term average and would arrive on 5th June at the coast of Kerala. For a normal monsoon landfall in Kerala is on the 1st of June. One fear was – and still is – that if an El Niño develops this year, then a further shortfall of rain in the 4 months of the monsoon season might occur.

It is still not clear if an El Niño will develop. But the monsoon which was stationary south of Sri Lanka a few days ago has developed rapidly in the last 24 hours and the northern limit has advanced well into southern India. The eastern  end of the northern limit is still relatively static compared to the western end, but is expected to develop in the next 2 or 3 days.

IMD: 

  1. Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala today, i.e. 6th June 2014. The southwest monsoon has further advanced into most parts of south Arabian sea and Kerala, remaining parts of Maldives-Comorin areas, some parts of Tamilnadu, most parts of southwest Bay of Bengal and some parts of westcentral Bay of Bengal. 
  2. The northern limit of monsoon passes through 12.0°N/60.0°E, 12.0°N/70.0°E, 12.0°N/74.0°E, Kozhikode, Coimbatore, Cuddalore, 13.0°N/83.0°E, 16.0°N/87.0°E, 18.0°N/90.0°E and 21.0°N/92.0°E. 
  3. Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of south Arabian sea, some parts of central Arabian sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of south Karnataka, some more parts of Tamilnadu and Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days. Conditions continue to remain favourable for further advance of Southwest monsoon into some parts of northeastern state during next 48 hours.
Monsoon advance 2014 June 6th - source IMD

Monsoon advance 2014 June 6th – source IMD

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ktwop.com goes live

June 6, 2014

I have finally taken the plunge and registered my own custom domain at ktwop.com.

A little bit of an anti-climax since I heard no celestial trumpets and have had no angelic visitations.

No doubt the benefits – if any – will reveal themselves.

As far as I understand ktwop.wordpress.com continues to live but immediately maps to ktwop.com (or is it the other way around?)

Comments from readers who have taken the step of getting a custom domain would be greatly appreciated.

 

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Sweden’s national day today (but little nationalism on show)

June 6, 2014

sveriges-flagga

Perhaps the best thing about Sweden’s national day today is that there is not very much jingoism and nationalism and patriotic fervour in evidence. If anything it is more a celebration of the values of human freedoms rather than any particular celebration of the nation state within its geographical boundaries. Even the national (but unofficial) anthem is more a paean to the North – Scandinavia (“Oh! I wish to live, I wish to die in Norden”) rather than specifically to Sweden.

The vast bulk of the population don’t make very much fuss about the day. Politicians tend to attend some official function or the other –  more for political correctness – it seems to me. Immigrants take part in some of the (fairly low-key) festivities. Many municipalities have some ceremony to welcome new citizens on this day. The loony right don’t like this welcoming of “New Swedes”. They usually try and whip up some artificial feelings of nationalism with anti-immigration rhetoric – but even their efforts are somewhat half-hearted.

The 6th of June has been a national holiday only since 2005, has been officially the National Day only since 1983 and before that was the Swedish Flag day but only since 1916. It was chosen ostensibly because the 6th of June was the day on which Gustav Vasa was crowned in 1523. But the real reason of course is that because there is a very good chance that the 6th of June will be a nice warm summer day!

The real origin of the choice of 6th June was bad weather and the ensuring of revenues from an organised festival! In 1893, a Spring Festival had to be reorganised hastily by Artur Hazelius for the 6th of June because it rained heavily on the day he had planned. The “Festival” was planned to draw in money from the public of course!

In any event, it is nice, warm, sunny day today. And it is a public holiday.

And I will not be doing anything special to celebrate – but I shall enjoy the day.

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Swedish Foreign Minister warns of the “Balkanisation of Britain”

June 5, 2014

Carl Bildt was once Sweden’s Prime Minster and was the UN’s envoy to the Balkans and is now the Foreign Minister. Not uncontroversial since he has many business interests ranging from Russia to Africa but generally radiates confidence and competence with a not insignificant measure of arrogance.

For a Foreign Minister he can be quite undiplomatic at times (not that it is always wrong to be undiplomatic). He has now poked his nose into the Scottish referendum and warns of the Balkanisation of the UK if Scotland decides to vote for Independence. He has a point of course. It would only be a matter of time before Wales, Ulster, the Channel Islands –  but perhaps not the Falklands – would all choose to go their own separate  ways into insignificance:

The Scotsman: SWEDEN’S foreign minister has claimed that Scottish independence would lead to the ‘Balkanisation’ of Britain.

 Carl Bildt also warned that a Yes vote would have ‘far-reaching consequences’ for the rest of Europe, in comments that echoed those made by former UK Defence Secretary Lord Robertson, in which he claimed that Scottish independence would have ‘cataclysmic’ geopolitical consequences.

Mr Bildt told the Financial Times that there would be ‘unforeseen chain reactions’ in Europe and the United Kingdom if Scotland voted for independence on September 18th.

The former UN special envoy to the Balkans between 1999 and 2001 said: “I think it’s going to have far more profound implications than people think. The Balkanisation of the British Isles is something we are not looking forward to.

“It opens up a lot, primarily in Scotland but also in the UK. What are the implications for the Irish question? What happens in Ulster?”

Mr Bildt also hinted that a victory for the Yes campaign could lead to the UK having to renegotiate some of its own EU membership terms. 

“The vote is one thing,” he added. “But there will then be a fairly painful period of separation and how is that going to affect the EU relationship? I assume there will have to be renegotiation of votes.” ……….. 

………… He likened the UK to ‘an island adrift in the Atlantic’ if it left the EU.

And the Swedish politician commented that both the EU and independence referendums showed that the debate in Europe was in the process of moving away from the Eurozone crisis to a more political phase.

“The main challenges in the past five years have been economic ones,” he explained. “Looking ahead for the next five years, it is political challenges in the east fairly obviously and also in the west fairly obviously.”

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MH370: Nothing expected to be found as search is outsourced

June 5, 2014

On Saturday it is three months since MH370 vanished. It is becoming just a historical footnote as the search efforts are gradually wound-down. Still nothing – not a scrap – has been found and the mystery continues. And now Australia – as the lead country – is going to outsource the search. But they are clearly not expecting anything to be found; “The intensified search will begin in August 2014 and is expected to take up to 12 months, depending on weather conditions”.

Any theory which cannot be disproved, no matter how implausible – remains possible. But I have seen nothing to shift from my view that the plane was deliberately destroyed and “disappeared”.

In the tender documents the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB)  calls for a search area which will be around 60,000 sq. km  and the contractor has to submit plans for searching 5,000 sq. km every 25 days.

The ATSB has issued a press release:

Engaged as a prime contractor, the company will provide the expertise, equipment and vessel(s) necessary to undertake an intensified underwater search for the missing Boeing 777 aircraft in the defined zone in the southern Indian Ocean.

While the precise search zone is currently being established by an international search strategy working group, it is expected that the successful tenderer will search an area up to 60,000 square kilometres based on the ‘seventh handshake’ arc where the aircraft last communicated with the Inmarsat satellite. Definition of the search zone will be finalised within two to three weeks.

The successful tenderer will localise, positively identify and map the debris field of MH370 using specialist equipment such as towed and autonomous underwater vehicles with mounted sonar and/or optical imaging systems.

The intensified search will begin in August 2014 and is expected to take up to 12 months, depending on weather conditions. The successful tenderer will use the data from a bathymetric survey (already underway) to navigate the search zone, which has water depth between 1000 and 6000 metres.

The search vessel(s) used by the prime contractor may also be coordinated with other vessels also undertaking search activities in the search zone on behalf of other countries. …….. 

At the request of the Malaysian Government, the ATSB is leading the search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

This request for tender has now appeared for tenders to be submitted by the end of June.

Request for Tender for Provision for Services relating to the Search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

On 8 March 2014, a Boeing 777 aircraft, operated as Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, carrying 12 Malaysian crew members and 227 passengers, disappeared during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Through the analysis of available satellite, radar and other data, it has been determined that MH370 is likely to be in the southern Indian Ocean within Australia’s search and rescue zone.

In accordance with Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation, Malaysia, as the State of registry for the aircraft, is the State conducting the investigation into the occurence involving the disappearance of MH370. In accordance with the provisions of Annex 13, Australia as the State closest to the likley location of MH370, has offered its continuing assistance.

It has been decided between Malaysia and Australia, that Australia will lead the search for MH370.  This arrangement includes Australia contracting the commercial services required to undertake the search operation.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) is the Australian agency responsible for the seafloor search.  The ATSB is seeking to contract services to:

  • search for and locate MH370 within a defined search area on the seafloor; and
  • if located, map and obtain optical imaging of MH370. 

 

 

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