Space and Distance: Imponderable Questions

June 2, 2010

A return to blogging after a month’s hiatus. Reading about the Big Bang Theory and other imponderable questions.

Does space or distance exist before the expanding universe expands into it?

If there is nothing and no communication and no transmission between two particles or two bodies how can separation between them be defined. Can an undefinable “distance” even exist – let alone increase?

Why should the speed of light be constant and distance the variable rather than distance being constant with a variable speed of light?

Is it not a circular argument to use the Doppler effect and its variation of wavelength – which requires a definition of distance – as the main evidence of an expanding universe defined as increasing separation distance? Is a constant speed of light merely a convenient fiction to make the imponderable tractable?

If a question – whether scientific or religious – is imponderable then why do we ponder them and go to war over them?

PowerPoint and Decision making don’t mix

May 1, 2010

An excellent example of the dangers of PowerPoint presentations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html

If PPT presentations could be somehow restricted for information briefings or as illustrations for a lecture but avoided as the basis for decision making it would be a giant step forward.

PowerPoint slides discourage thought.

An excellent essay about the dangers by Thomas Hammes.

http://www.afji.com/2009/07/4061641

Managing without flights

May 1, 2010

I had to travel to Germany from Sweden during the time when air-space was closed due to the irrational alarm surrounding the volcano eruption in Iceland.

A 1500 km journey – each way – by car over a day-and-a-half was remarkably efficient, relaxed and much less stressful than hanging around at airports. A relaxed night in Bremen on the way to Essen and in Odense on the way back. Half the journey was through Denmark and Sweden with maximum motorway speeds of between 110 and 130 km / h and giving an average speed of 105 km /h. The other half on the German autobahns, where the maximum speed in some sections was unlimited also gave an average speed just over 100km /h.

Beautiful spring weather all the way and back and the average level of courtesy of drivers on the road is remarkably high.

Ethics and Business

April 19, 2010

In the wake of the latest Goldman Sachs scandal, Gordon Brown has accused them of “moral bankruptcy”.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8628231.stm

But polticians would be well advised to see to it that they also actually operate under an ethics code of their own.

Milton Friedman, Peter Drucker and others must bear their share of the responsibility for having propagated the view that corporations should only be concerned with the profit they deliver to shareholders. They have – maybe inadvertently – supported the view that humans in a corporate setting can and should abdicate their own ethical codes. The Wall Street Journal has even declared from on high that ethics cannot be learned and ethics courses are irrelevant to business. Utter rubbish of course, but even the “newspapers of record” such as the New York Times or The Times or Der Spiegel or the Wall Street Journal have lost their famed objectivity and have become political advocacy channels. It is such high-profile and basically amoral views which have been greatly responsible for providing a cloak of respectability for the attitude that:

  1. Corporations have no business to concern themselves with ethics, and
  2. Even if ethics is important then compliance with law is a sufficient substitute for having a code of ethics, and
  3. If an action is seen to be compliant with laws then this is sufficient.

Large corporations, ably assisted by the Big Four auditing firms, have fine-tuned the processes and documentation needed to show compliance. After Siemens experienced their scandals in 2007, anti-corruption training courses were held compulsorily throughout the company – mainly to assist in the negotiations with the SEC and minimise the extent of the inevitable fine. The training courses were conducted by staff from KPMG and I was disappointed but not surprised that the trainers either did not have the intellectual capacity to see – or perhaps did not want to see – the distinction between corruption and non-compliance.

There is no excuse for corporations to abdicate from ethical responsibility and satisfy themselves with the appearance of compliance. By taking the position that unacceptable behaviour is only that which is non-compliant they have, of course, also defined everything else that can be done as being acceptable. But it does not stop with just the officers of the corporation. It extends to ownership. Normally an owner is expected to take some responsibility for his property. But yet, no shareholder is really willing or able or required to take his share of the responsibility for the ethical conduct of a corporation he partially owns. And this is so even though the shareholder, as an individual, may well have an admirable code of ethics of his own.

The financial world has been particularly aggressive in promoting the notion that ethics has no place in business, and only the limits set by law have been acknowledged  and accepted as constraints on behaviour. Since law is retrospective this has allowed the creation of strange and wonderful financial and trading products in areas where the law has been silent and lawmakers have not yet written any laws. In such areas, where there is also an absence of any guidance from any ethical code, financial bubbles and dubious practices have grown unfettered by any constraints.

In my view, an organisation cannot isolate itself from the social environment it is surrounded by. It must have an explicit view of its own integrity and therefore of its own ethical code. Merely being compliant with law is insufficient. The owners must be party to this. It is time to bring these into the main-stream of management and into the fundamental vocabulary of a manager. Not for the sake of public relations or for avoiding criticism but because it is the right thing to do.

UK Airspace was never actually closed !!!

April 19, 2010

As criticism mounts over the alarmist behaviour based largely on bureaucratic processes, in turn based on computer modelling, it turns out that UK airspace was never legally closed following the Icelandic dust cloud !!!

Criticism is also growing in Sweden and Norway for blindly following UK Met Office projections without confirming them by measurement.

The Financial Times reports:

The National Air Traffic Services body has appeared to be the one legally responsible for closing Britain’s airspace. This is because NATS, which provides airlines with air traffic control services, made the first announcements on April 14 about airspace restrictions after the cloud of ash began drifting over the UK. On Sunday night, it announced that restrictions would be in place until at least 7pm, Monday . NATS is not a regulator, however, and cannot legally close airspace. That power lies with the Civil Aviation Authority, which regulates aviation on behalf of the Department of Transport. So far, the CAA has not used this power. “At no point has UK airspace been shut. It’s legally open,” a CAA spokesman said.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39cbf638-4b45-11df-a7ff-00144feab49a.html

Precautionary principle is fatally flawed

April 18, 2010

Finally as reported by the BBC the nonsensical bans on flights in Europe are being questioned.

“Europe’s air industry has called for an urgent review of flight bans imposed because of volcanic ash from Iceland………Airlines that have carried out test flights say planes showed no obvious damage after flying through the ash.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8628323.stm

The volcanic ash plume from Iceland, top left, to northern France, pictured by Nasa's Terra Satellite , 17 April

Photo: NEODAAS/University of Dundee/AP

Wherever the Precautionary Principle is used to justify restrictions on human activity it is because a political agenda is being served but common sense dictates otherwise. It is usually resorted to by polticians and bureaucrats who defend a process in the name of avoiding the “common bad” even if the results of the process are against the common good.

Big Brother in Europe is alive and well but it is time to put this pseudo-science to bed.

Metals price recovery confirms recession is over

April 18, 2010

China with around 12% and India at around 8% growth have shrugged off the recession and seem to be providing much of the power behind the global recovery.

The Indian Finance Minister seems to think that Indian growth rates could even overtake China’s.

http://business.rediff.com/report/2010/mar/31/india-poised-to-overtake-chinas-growth-rate-chidambaram.htm

Basic metal prices provide a solid sanity check and the recovery of metal prices is well underway. Recovery of Nickel price is a good indicator that specialised and stainless steels are back in demand again.

The steel cartel is becoming active again after having a couple of years with nothing to shout about, and seems to be mainly driven by the demand from China.

http://www.infomine.com/

Do volcanoes cause climate change?

April 18, 2010

Do volcanoes cause climate change or it the other way around?

Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a vulcanologist at the University of Iceland believes that climate change can impact eruptions. “Global warming melts ice and this can influence magmatic systems,” he told Reuters. The end of the Ice Age 10,000 years ago coincided with a surge in volcanic activity in Iceland, apparently because huge ice caps thinned and the land rose. “We believe the reduction of ice has not been important in triggering this latest eruption,” he said of Eyjafjallajokull. “The eruption is happening under a relatively small ice cap.”

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=ice-cap-thaw-iceland-volcanoes

But Steven Goddard writing in What’s Up with That suggests it is the other way around.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/17/volcanoes-cause-climate-change/#more-18609

Not climate, but perhaps solar effects can impact geological changes in the earth’s crust and influence eruptions. It seems unlikely that a feedback loop from surface air conditions could work to change the earth’s crust.

Clouds and dust from volcanoes can surely affect weather and maybe even weather for a few years. Perhaps volcanoes can even change climate but I think the jury is out on that.

Snow among the cherry blossoms

April 18, 2010

A lovely picture of cherry blossoms in full bloom, people in kimonos, umbrellas unfurled and snow on the ground in Tokyo — from The Japan Times.

News photo

Sanity Check

April 18, 2010

A bright spring Sunday with blue skies over this part of Sweden.

But the skies over Europe are still closed due to the largely invisible ash cloud.

Lufthansa and KLM have made some test flights in the ash cloud with no sign of any damage. KLM hope to fly seven planes back from Germany during today (Sunday). Lufthansa flew 10 test flights bewteen Frankfurt and Munich on Saturday at 3000m and 8000 m altitude without incident.

Perhaps sanity will prevail and common sense will return.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63G1U920100417