If “law and order” becomes the dominating issue, Clinton could easily lose

July 18, 2016

Hillary Clinton appears to have a substantial lead over Donald Trump in many polls (though there are some polls which puts them quite close). His uninspiring choice of running mate does not bode well either (for him). But, paradoxically, it is “black lives matter” and the mood it inculcates of it being “open season” on the police, which might give Trump an unbeatable edge.

It is not just in Dallas, or now in Baton Rouge, that policemen (some of them black) are being killed by murderous black men. The LA Times (which is virulently anti-Trump), reports:

When five police officers were killed and nine wounded in an attack during a protest march in Dallas on July 7, it rattled the nation. Ten days later, three officers were killed and three injured in Baton Rouge, La., as they were responding to a call about a suspicious person with an assault rifle.

Between the two attacks, law enforcement officers from Georgia to Michigan were shot in incidents that drew far less attention but have added to the growing sense that it’s a dangerous time to be a cop. With the Dallas shootings, 31 law enforcement officers have died in the line of duty so far this year, compared with 18 officers who had died at this point in 2015, according the statistics from the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund. 

…… “As we see increases, it becomes very concerning, particularly when you see increases in the cases of the nature of Dallas,” Breul said. “Certainly there is a climate now — and the Dallas case indicates that there is a climate now — that certainly should have police on guard,” he added. 

Supporters of “black lives matter” were not slow in celebration of the deaths and in commending the police killers both after Dallas and after Baton Rouge. (Not unlike the Islamic teenagers celebrating after the terrorist truck attack in Nice). Donald Trump responded immediately and was quick to draw a picture of the break-down of law and order and the lack of leadership. Hillary Clinton, however, took almost 8 hours to respond very cautiously to the Baton Rouge killings. Sarcastic comments suggested she was waiting for her focus group to tell her what to say.

“Immigration” is the issue that has probably helped most – so far – to fuel Trump’s support among those who feel it has gotten out of control. However there is a significant amount of support for the pro-immigration position as well, which accrues – by default – to Hillary Clinton.  “Law and Order” as an issue is different to “immigration”. There is only a “pro” position here. It is not possible to be “against” law and order. If “law and order” becomes a key issue then it becomes the candidates’ credibility to promote “law and order” that count.

And here, I think, Hillary Clinton could lose very heavily. There is no conceivable way she can present herself as being in favour of, or of being able to restore, or even manage “law and order”. It is not so much that Trump will have any more in the way of solutions than blank support of the security forces, but Clinton does not even understand the problem. Her perceived pandering to “black lives matter” means not just zero credibility regarding “law and order”, but actually a huge negative that she must first overcome. Clinton would lose rather than that Trump would win.

Trump’s best chance now to win against Clinton probably depends upon “immigration” and “law and order” becoming the key issues in November. If “law and order” becomes the dominating issue then Clinton will self-destruct.

 

Tags: , ,
Posted in Behaviour, Politics, US | Comments Off on If “law and order” becomes the dominating issue, Clinton could easily lose

Something fishy with the “attempted coup” in Turkey

July 17, 2016

The attempted coup was pretty inept and not at all representative of the skills and organising abilities of the Turkish army. It could have been that it was just a small group involved. But the purge that Erdogan is now carrying out against Hizmet and supporters of Fethullah Gülen (3000 military and 2500 judges detained so far) begins to give weight to the theory that the failed, inept, coup was stage-managed by Erdogan, just to have an excuse to move against Hizmet.

Fethullah Gülen (image Reuters/ BBC)

Just another conspiracy theory. Perhaps. But as conspiracy theories go, this is a rather simple intrigue by the standards of intricate, Byzantine plots. It could be that Erdogan is just being an opportunist and is using  a “genuine” coup attempt to now crack-down on Gülen supporters. But, I would not be at all surprised if it had all been orchestrated by Erdogan.

Reuters: 

U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, whose followers Turkey blames for a failed coup, said on Saturday the attempted overthrow may have been staged, and he urged the Turkish people not to view military intervention in a positive light.

“There is a slight chance, there is a possibility that it could be a staged coup,” Gulen told reporters through a translator in Pennsylvania, where he resides. “It could be meant for court accusations and associations.”

Gulen said democracy cannot be achieved through military action. He criticized the President Tayyip Erdogan’s government. “It appears that they have no tolerance for any movement, any group, any organization that is not under their total control,” he said.

Whether staged or not, Erdogan wins. He is obsessed with Fethullah Gülen and his supporters and what he calls their “parallel state”. It is not a coincidence that Gülen’s supporters tend to be much better educated than the mass support that Erdogan so successfully mobilises.

 

Tags: ,
Posted in Behaviour, Politics, Turkey | Comments Off on Something fishy with the “attempted coup” in Turkey

Murderous terrorism must be treated as disease to be eradicated

July 16, 2016
fertile crescent NASA

fertile crescent NASA

It has been a surreal few days with the massacre in Nice and the apparently failed coup in Turkey. Whether the massacre in Nice was directed by ISIS or just inspired by ISIS, the virus came out of the fertile crescent which some 10,000 years ago was the cradle of civilisation. As Erdogan cracks down a period of blood-letting in Turkey is likely to follow. (The coup attempt, even in its failure, is likely to delay any possibility of EU membership by at least a decade).

George W. Bush first used the term “War on Terror” in 2001. But in the subsequent 15 years the use of indiscriminate and murderous attacks on innocent bystanders has only increased. As a conventional “war”, it is being lost. The “war on terror” is being prosecuted as if it were between nations, albeit that the “nation of terror” is something diffuse and difficult to define. This “war”, I think, is conceptually wrong. It strikes me that the concepts used in containing, eradicating and eliminating diseases may be more apposite. It could be far more effective to consider the “murderousness virus” and then to apply the methods of disease control. Here I consider Islamic terrorism or right-wing terrorism or Hindu nationalist terrorism or Burmese Buddhist murderousness or even State-sponsored barbarity, all as being caused by different strains of the murderousness virus.  As with any disease the fight would then entail:

  1. localising the sources of the virus,
  2. containing the areas where the virus is nurtured
  3. isolating the sources, and
  4. then eliminating them,
  5. identifying those individuals either suffering from an outbreak of the disease and those merely carrying the virus,
  6. treating the afflicted (where possible)

The sources of the virus are then those teachings or ideologies which justify and promote the use of barbarism and murder and mayhem. It would apply equally well to the twisted ideologies which inspired IRA murderers or Anders Behring Breivik or to those Wahhabi preachings which currently inspire what is manifested as Islamic terrorism. There are virus sources in other parts of the world as well but the most virulent strain right now is that emanating from Saudi Arabia.

The conventional “war on terror” has really only addressed individuals already infected and showing visible signs of the disease. There has been no coordinated effort to localise and isolate the real sources of the virus. Or more than half-hearted attempts to identify the carriers of the virus who themselves never carry out the murderous acts. (In the guise of freedom of speech many of the virus carriers are freely allowed to roam within the EU infecting vulnerable youngsters).

Certain principles apply when eradicating or eliminating disease. It is striking how apt this is when applied to murderous behaviour:

Eradication means zero disease globally as a result of deliberate efforts and control measures no longer needed

Elimination means zero disease in a defined geographic area as a result of deliberate efforts. Control measures are needed to prevent reestablishment of transmission.

Several key principles are inherent in an eradication or elimination campaign:

  1. the need to intervene everywhere the disease occurs, no matter how remotely located or difficult to access occurrences of disease are or how minor the perceived problem is in an individual country or area;
  2. the importance of monitoring the target disease and the extent of interventions closely;
  3. the need for flexibility and urgency in response to ongoing monitoring and operational research; and
  4. the need for an intense focus on the goal of stopping transmission of the targeted disease, even when the costs per case rise sharply as the number of cases declines.

Common difficulties faced by such campaigns include sporadic or widespread political insecurity in areas where the disease is endemic, inadequate or delayed funding, and the challenges of motivating officials, health workers, and affected populations.

Our propensity for murderous behaviour is partly genetic and partly by upbringing. But I have no doubt that it is finally a manipulation of the mind which then results in murderous behaviour or the further transmission of such manipulation. And that is perhaps best treated as a disease to be eliminated and eradicated.

 

Tags: ,
Posted in Behaviour | 2 Comments »

Ruth Bader Ginsburg apologises to Trump

July 14, 2016

It is untenable for a Supreme Court Justice to support the independence of the judiciary while involving herself in a political, election campaign. I thought she was being exceedingly stupid in coming out with anti-Trump statements but was somewhat amused at the intellectual contortions of the loony-left media (Huffington Post) in trying to justify her outbursts. She was providing the political establishment a perfect excuse for interfering with the judiciary.

But she has finally seen some sense (or has had it pointed out to her) and has apologised (sort of) to Trump:

Reuters: Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg ‘regrets’ Trump criticisms

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Thursday said she regrets making critical comments about Republican presidential contender Donald Trump.

“On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them,” she said in a statement issued by the court.

Ginsburg, the 83-year-old senior liberal member of the high court, inserted herself into the U.S. presidential election in recent days by making negative remarks about Trump in a series of media interviews. Her earlier remarks prompted criticism from Trump, who said she should resign. In one of a series of Twitter posts, he also said Ginsburg’s “mind is shot.”……..

Legal ethics scholars also questioned Ginsburg’s actions, saying Supreme Court justices should stay out the political fray in order to maintain their judicial integrity. The New York Times and the Washington Post chided Ginsburg in editorial articles.

“Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect,” Ginsburg said.

In a CNN interview posted on Tuesday, Ginsburg called the presumptive Republican nominee “a faker.”

In a separate interview with the New York Times, Ginsburg joked about moving to New Zealand if Trump wins the White House.

Under a code of conduct that federal judges – but not Supreme Court justices – are required to follow, judges are forbidden from publicly endorsing or opposing candidates for public office.

image

 

Tags: ,
Posted in Behaviour, Politics, US | Comments Off on Ruth Bader Ginsburg apologises to Trump

Why Boris Johnson does not need to apologise for his past statements

July 14, 2016

Theresa May pulled a surprise by appointing Boris Johnson as her foreign secretary and the media and commentators today have been full of his previous “gaffes” and outrageous statements and how he is going to have to apologise. Everybody seems certain he is carrying baggage. The French foreign minister has been scathing about the appointment.

But I think they are all wrong. What the media is considering Boris Johnson’s baggage is actually ammunition that he can use.

Boris Johnson does not need to apologise for anything he may have said in the past. It is those who have to deal with him, in his new appointment, who have to come to terms with his previous statements. In fact, if they start their interaction with the new UK Foreign Secretary by referring to the statements he may have made in his previous avatars, they are going to hand the high ground to him.

Especially in a Europe after the Brexit vote, other Foreign Ministers cannot be seen either to be bullying the UK or to be “punishing” Boris Johnson (Joris Bonsson sounds so much better). He starts the negotiating game with a good lead and a proven, popular mandate which none of the EU bureaucrats or other foreign ministers have. He has “democracy” on his side. Jean-Claude Juncker must dread the prospect of negotiating against Boris Johnson. Looking at his so called “gaffes” only convinces me that he has no need to actually apologise for anything. At any rate, he can use an apology – if ever necessary – as a negotiating tool to be used at a time of his choosing.

I think Theresa May’s appointment of Boris Johnson could well be an even more inspired move than she has calculated for. It will quieten down the Brexiteers and the right wing as she no doubt calculates, but I believe that Johnson’s past indiscretions are actually a strength in his future bilateral discussions outside the EU and a trump card within the EU.

He is the natural “bad cop” and if David Davis can play the “good” and very correct cop, they could run rings around the EU bureaucrats. What they are all forgetting is that when the rules do not allow expulsion, the EU bureaucrats are still bound by the rules and the difficult consensus among 27 countries, whereas the UK now has the freedom to interpret EU rules in any which way it pleases.

 

 

Tags: ,
Posted in Behaviour, UK | Comments Off on Why Boris Johnson does not need to apologise for his past statements

Indian monsoon moves to excess rainfall

July 14, 2016

This year the onset of the monsoon was about a week late but the geographical coverage has spread across the entire country about 2 days ahead of the long term “normal”.

At the end of June, cumulative rainfall was running about 15% short of the long term “normal”, but has now just moved into excess (+4%).

The probability (and hope) of a “good” monsoon in 2016 (about +10-15% cumulative rainfall) is quite high. Which will no doubt cheer the government and the markets.

Figures below are from IMD for 13th July 2016.

Geographical spread of 2016 Monsoon (IMD)

Geographical spread of 2016 Monsoon (IMD)

Cumulative rainfall till 13th July 2016 (IMD)

Cumulative rainfall till 13th July 2016 (IMD)

 

Tags:
Posted in India | Comments Off on Indian monsoon moves to excess rainfall

Hollande’s €10,000 per month hair

July 13, 2016

A Socialist President of France has saddled the taxpayer with the cost of a hairdresser for €10,000 per month.

And Francois Hollande’s already sparse hair is not particularly photogenic.

Hollande's €10,000 per month hair

The Guardian: 

Wispy, thinning and suspiciously free of grey, François Hollande’s boring hairstyle has never been held to much scrutiny, unlike his wonky ties, which have their own website.

But now the balding pate of the French president is at the centre of an embarrassing scandal dubbed coiffeurgate after the weekly paper Le Canard Enchaîné revealed that his personal hairdresser is on contract for almost €10,000 a month, paid from the public purse.

The publication of the contract with the hairdresser, named as Olivier B, has sparked a row over extravagant spending by a Socialist president who once liked to see himself as “Mr Normal”. … 

The Canard Enchaîné reported that in addition to his salary, Hollande’s hairdresser was entitled to a housing allowance and other family benefits. He never had a stand-in to replace him and demands on him were so tough that he had “missed the births of his children”.

The hairdresser – employed since Hollande took office and accompanying him on most of his foreign trips – is contracted to “maintain absolute secrecy about his work and any information he may have gathered both during and after his contract”.

It is the prerogative of all good socialist leaders – “DO as I say – not as I do”

 

Tags:
Posted in Behaviour | Comments Off on Hollande’s €10,000 per month hair

Revelations of crony corruption at the Swedish National Audit Office

July 13, 2016

riksrevisionen

The Swedish National Audit Office is part of the central control power of the Swedish Riksdag (Parliament). It ensures that the Riksdag receives a coordinated and independent audit of the state finances. This assignment is unique as the Swedish NAO is the only body that can audit the entire state finances.

It is supposed to audit the entire chain of executive power. It is intended to be an independent organization under the Riksdag and independent of those audited. Both performance- and financial audits are within its ambit. But Dagens Nyheter has been carrying out an investigation and in recent days has been revealing that the Office is far from independent. Both in staffing and in its operations it seems to be riddled with “cronyism” and “crony corruption”. An Agency intended to be a check against corruption (among other things) has been found to be corrupt itself. One Auditor General (Susanne Ackum) has resigned. The Swedish branch of Transparency International has called for all the 3 Auditor Generals to resign and for integrity to be reestablished:

Transparency International Sweden reacts strongly to the investigation of the National Audit Office carried by Dagens Nyheter. 

It shows that the Auditors have acted with a lack of integrity and judgment.

The National Audit Office is to contribute to the proper use of the state’s resources and that state administration is handled efficiently. The three Auditors General have a strong mandate for the independent review and the authority is to be a cornerstone in the fight against corruption in Sweden.

When the National Audit management do not follow the basic principles of good governance, ie integrity, impartiality and objectivity, and do not even comply with the international code of ethics, confidence is destroyed not only for individuals but also for the important work the Agency conducts. Transparency International Sweden believes in this context that all Auditor Generals should offer to resign.

Transparency International Sweden welcomes the announced meeting  called by the Constitutional Committee with the Auditors. The Committee should also consider their role in the recruitment process for this important office.

Given the National Audit Office’s  central role as part of parliamentary control, Transparency International Sweden believes that it is important that the Constitution Committee immediately and forcefully act to restore the Authority’s integrity.

Dagens Nyheter: Revelations about the National Audit Office

  1. Auditor General Ulf Bengtsson has interfered in an audit review of a decision which he himself was involved in.
  2. He gave his explicit support to a County governor audited by the National Audit Office.
  3. One of the National Audit Office’s senior managers had a private  SMS contact with the audited governor and promised to help her.
  4. The head of the Agency Supervisory Board warned the National Audit Office that DN was conducting an investigation. (DN had contacted him to get expert help in assessing unpublished data).
  5. The Auditors may have violated their own ethics rules. The internal guidelines say that employees may not take a position in a pending case.
  6. Auditor General Susanne Ackum has promised jobs to people before they are announced. E-mails reveal how she has given away jobs before a proper recruitment process has even started.
  7. Those recruited by Ackum receive on average 6,500 kronor per month more than their colleagues in similar positions. Her closest colleague gets 114,000 kronor/month.
  8. Those recruited by Susanne Ackum will lead audit examinations of policies that they themselves have helped to implement while at the Cabinet Office.
  9. Susanne Ackum has allowed people outside the National Audit Office, including the Cabinet Office, to take part in and influence the ongoing audits.
  10. At least one review has been shut down after Susanne Ackum discussed it with an official at the Cabinet Office.
  11. Even Susanne Ackum’s live-in partner has been allowed to read internal working documents and comment on documents not yet published.
  12. The National Audit Office’s chief economist is a well established political debater who has previously taken positions on matters related to taxes and the tax system. Now he is to lead the National Audit’s impartial review of the tax system.
  13. The Auditors have dropped an unusually high number of audits. They have canceled audit missions which had already consumed 19,000 man hours, at a cost of nearly ten million.

I am not all that surprised and just a little shocked that the Agency which is supposed to be a check on corruption is rife with cronyism. But it should be remembered that the entire Swedish party political system is built on “cronyism”. Party membership is tiny compared to the number of voters for each party. Yet it is this tiny membership which controls all public (tax-payer funded) positions. It is friends, and friends of friends, which governs. Not that that is any different to any “party democracy” in Europe. It only demonstrates once again that “party democracies” are quite different  – and often in conflict with –  “people democracies”.

 

Tags: , ,
Posted in Behaviour, Ethics, Sweden | 1 Comment »

Not quite sunset over the Baltic

July 12, 2016

At this time of year, at this latitude, “sunset” is a rather diffuse business. Sometime after 10 pm the sun dips below the horizon a little east of North and then appears again around 3 am a little south of East.

These were taken on the Baltic (latitude c. 59.7ºN), while just leaving the Stockholm archipelago, looking roughly North-North-West at about 9pm.

baltic sunset 2

baltic sunset 1

Summer’s not over, but the days are getting shorter again.

 

Tags:
Posted in Trivia | Comments Off on Not quite sunset over the Baltic

Black lives don’t matter – to other blacks

July 10, 2016

I dislike the slogan “Black Lives Matter”. It is fundamentally racist in that it implies that all other lives don’t matter. If it had been “Even Black Lives Matter” or “Black Lives Do Matter”, I would find the slogan more accurate and far more powerful. As it stands “Black Lives Matter” is a lie among blacks.

After the dreadful events of last week in the US one wonders what Obama has done for race relations in the last 8 years? Not much according to Politico (which is unashamedly pro-Obama):

Did Obama fail Black America?

….. Take criminal justice. Nothing in the day-to-day lives of black Americans is more menacing than their vulnerability to criminality on the one hand and mistreatment by police on the other. Yet on neither front has Obama focused the attention of the nation. … 

The president remains quiet. That has been a recurring pattern when it comes to African-American concerns. He might work on black issues behind the scenes. But he won’t be caught promoting them out front, not even now, when he is free of the burden of seeking reelection.

But returning to the slogan, what is abundantly clear is that black lives matter least to other blacks. This is from Professor Heather Mac Donald’s speech delivered on April 27, 2016, at Hillsdale College’s Allan P. Kirby, Jr. Center:

Every year, approximately 6,000 blacks are murdered. This is a number greater than white and Hispanic homicide victims combined, even though blacks are only 13 percent of the national population. Blacks are killed at six times the rate of whites and Hispanics combined. In Los Angeles, blacks between the ages of 20 and 24 die at a rate 20 to 30 times the national mean. Who is killing them? Not the police, and not white civilians, but other blacks. The astronomical black death-by-homicide rate is a function of the black crime rate. Black males between the ages of 14 and 17 commit homicide at ten times the rate of white and Hispanic male teens combined. Blacks of all ages commit homicide at eight times the rate of whites and Hispanics combined, and at eleven times the rate of whites alone. The police could end all lethal uses of force tomorrow and it would have at most a trivial effect on the black death-by-homicide rate. The nation’s police killed 987 civilians in 2015, according to a database compiled by The Washington Post. Whites were 50 percent—or 493—of those victims, and blacks were 26 percent—or 258. Most of those victims of police shootings, white and black, were armed or otherwise threatening the officer with potentially lethal force. The black violent crime rate would actually predict that more than 26 percent of police victims would be black. Officer use of force will occur where the police interact most often with violent criminals, armed suspects, and those resisting arrest, and that is in black neighborhoods. In America’s 75 largest counties in 2009, for example, blacks constituted 62 percent of all robbery defendants, 57 percent of all murder defendants, 45 percent of all assault defendants—but only 15 percent of the population. Moreover, 40 percent of all cop killers have been black over the last decade. And a larger proportion of white and Hispanic homicide deaths are a result of police killings than black homicide deaths—but don’t expect to hear that from the media or from the political enablers of the Black Lives Matter movement.

The “black lives matter” slogan might have some greater validity and be more convincing if  blacks did not kill each other so easily and in such great numbers. For blacks more than others – the statistics say –  lives don’t matter.

 

Tags: ,
Posted in Behaviour, US | Comments Off on Black lives don’t matter – to other blacks

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »