Murderous terrorism must be treated as disease to be eradicated

July 16, 2016
fertile crescent NASA

fertile crescent NASA

It has been a surreal few days with the massacre in Nice and the apparently failed coup in Turkey. Whether the massacre in Nice was directed by ISIS or just inspired by ISIS, the virus came out of the fertile crescent which some 10,000 years ago was the cradle of civilisation. As Erdogan cracks down a period of blood-letting in Turkey is likely to follow. (The coup attempt, even in its failure, is likely to delay any possibility of EU membership by at least a decade).

George W. Bush first used the term “War on Terror” in 2001. But in the subsequent 15 years the use of indiscriminate and murderous attacks on innocent bystanders has only increased. As a conventional “war”, it is being lost. The “war on terror” is being prosecuted as if it were between nations, albeit that the “nation of terror” is something diffuse and difficult to define. This “war”, I think, is conceptually wrong. It strikes me that the concepts used in containing, eradicating and eliminating diseases may be more apposite. It could be far more effective to consider the “murderousness virus” and then to apply the methods of disease control. Here I consider Islamic terrorism or right-wing terrorism or Hindu nationalist terrorism or Burmese Buddhist murderousness or even State-sponsored barbarity, all as being caused by different strains of the murderousness virus.  As with any disease the fight would then entail:

  1. localising the sources of the virus,
  2. containing the areas where the virus is nurtured
  3. isolating the sources, and
  4. then eliminating them,
  5. identifying those individuals either suffering from an outbreak of the disease and those merely carrying the virus,
  6. treating the afflicted (where possible)

The sources of the virus are then those teachings or ideologies which justify and promote the use of barbarism and murder and mayhem. It would apply equally well to the twisted ideologies which inspired IRA murderers or Anders Behring Breivik or to those Wahhabi preachings which currently inspire what is manifested as Islamic terrorism. There are virus sources in other parts of the world as well but the most virulent strain right now is that emanating from Saudi Arabia.

The conventional “war on terror” has really only addressed individuals already infected and showing visible signs of the disease. There has been no coordinated effort to localise and isolate the real sources of the virus. Or more than half-hearted attempts to identify the carriers of the virus who themselves never carry out the murderous acts. (In the guise of freedom of speech many of the virus carriers are freely allowed to roam within the EU infecting vulnerable youngsters).

Certain principles apply when eradicating or eliminating disease. It is striking how apt this is when applied to murderous behaviour:

Eradication means zero disease globally as a result of deliberate efforts and control measures no longer needed

Elimination means zero disease in a defined geographic area as a result of deliberate efforts. Control measures are needed to prevent reestablishment of transmission.

Several key principles are inherent in an eradication or elimination campaign:

  1. the need to intervene everywhere the disease occurs, no matter how remotely located or difficult to access occurrences of disease are or how minor the perceived problem is in an individual country or area;
  2. the importance of monitoring the target disease and the extent of interventions closely;
  3. the need for flexibility and urgency in response to ongoing monitoring and operational research; and
  4. the need for an intense focus on the goal of stopping transmission of the targeted disease, even when the costs per case rise sharply as the number of cases declines.

Common difficulties faced by such campaigns include sporadic or widespread political insecurity in areas where the disease is endemic, inadequate or delayed funding, and the challenges of motivating officials, health workers, and affected populations.

Our propensity for murderous behaviour is partly genetic and partly by upbringing. But I have no doubt that it is finally a manipulation of the mind which then results in murderous behaviour or the further transmission of such manipulation. And that is perhaps best treated as a disease to be eliminated and eradicated.

 

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Ruth Bader Ginsburg apologises to Trump

July 14, 2016

It is untenable for a Supreme Court Justice to support the independence of the judiciary while involving herself in a political, election campaign. I thought she was being exceedingly stupid in coming out with anti-Trump statements but was somewhat amused at the intellectual contortions of the loony-left media (Huffington Post) in trying to justify her outbursts. She was providing the political establishment a perfect excuse for interfering with the judiciary.

But she has finally seen some sense (or has had it pointed out to her) and has apologised (sort of) to Trump:

Reuters: Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg ‘regrets’ Trump criticisms

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Thursday said she regrets making critical comments about Republican presidential contender Donald Trump.

“On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them,” she said in a statement issued by the court.

Ginsburg, the 83-year-old senior liberal member of the high court, inserted herself into the U.S. presidential election in recent days by making negative remarks about Trump in a series of media interviews. Her earlier remarks prompted criticism from Trump, who said she should resign. In one of a series of Twitter posts, he also said Ginsburg’s “mind is shot.”……..

Legal ethics scholars also questioned Ginsburg’s actions, saying Supreme Court justices should stay out the political fray in order to maintain their judicial integrity. The New York Times and the Washington Post chided Ginsburg in editorial articles.

“Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect,” Ginsburg said.

In a CNN interview posted on Tuesday, Ginsburg called the presumptive Republican nominee “a faker.”

In a separate interview with the New York Times, Ginsburg joked about moving to New Zealand if Trump wins the White House.

Under a code of conduct that federal judges – but not Supreme Court justices – are required to follow, judges are forbidden from publicly endorsing or opposing candidates for public office.

image

 

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Why Boris Johnson does not need to apologise for his past statements

July 14, 2016

Theresa May pulled a surprise by appointing Boris Johnson as her foreign secretary and the media and commentators today have been full of his previous “gaffes” and outrageous statements and how he is going to have to apologise. Everybody seems certain he is carrying baggage. The French foreign minister has been scathing about the appointment.

But I think they are all wrong. What the media is considering Boris Johnson’s baggage is actually ammunition that he can use.

Boris Johnson does not need to apologise for anything he may have said in the past. It is those who have to deal with him, in his new appointment, who have to come to terms with his previous statements. In fact, if they start their interaction with the new UK Foreign Secretary by referring to the statements he may have made in his previous avatars, they are going to hand the high ground to him.

Especially in a Europe after the Brexit vote, other Foreign Ministers cannot be seen either to be bullying the UK or to be “punishing” Boris Johnson (Joris Bonsson sounds so much better). He starts the negotiating game with a good lead and a proven, popular mandate which none of the EU bureaucrats or other foreign ministers have. He has “democracy” on his side. Jean-Claude Juncker must dread the prospect of negotiating against Boris Johnson. Looking at his so called “gaffes” only convinces me that he has no need to actually apologise for anything. At any rate, he can use an apology – if ever necessary – as a negotiating tool to be used at a time of his choosing.

I think Theresa May’s appointment of Boris Johnson could well be an even more inspired move than she has calculated for. It will quieten down the Brexiteers and the right wing as she no doubt calculates, but I believe that Johnson’s past indiscretions are actually a strength in his future bilateral discussions outside the EU and a trump card within the EU.

He is the natural “bad cop” and if David Davis can play the “good” and very correct cop, they could run rings around the EU bureaucrats. What they are all forgetting is that when the rules do not allow expulsion, the EU bureaucrats are still bound by the rules and the difficult consensus among 27 countries, whereas the UK now has the freedom to interpret EU rules in any which way it pleases.

 

 

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Indian monsoon moves to excess rainfall

July 14, 2016

This year the onset of the monsoon was about a week late but the geographical coverage has spread across the entire country about 2 days ahead of the long term “normal”.

At the end of June, cumulative rainfall was running about 15% short of the long term “normal”, but has now just moved into excess (+4%).

The probability (and hope) of a “good” monsoon in 2016 (about +10-15% cumulative rainfall) is quite high. Which will no doubt cheer the government and the markets.

Figures below are from IMD for 13th July 2016.

Geographical spread of 2016 Monsoon (IMD)

Geographical spread of 2016 Monsoon (IMD)

Cumulative rainfall till 13th July 2016 (IMD)

Cumulative rainfall till 13th July 2016 (IMD)

 

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Hollande’s €10,000 per month hair

July 13, 2016

A Socialist President of France has saddled the taxpayer with the cost of a hairdresser for €10,000 per month.

And Francois Hollande’s already sparse hair is not particularly photogenic.

Hollande's €10,000 per month hair

The Guardian: 

Wispy, thinning and suspiciously free of grey, François Hollande’s boring hairstyle has never been held to much scrutiny, unlike his wonky ties, which have their own website.

But now the balding pate of the French president is at the centre of an embarrassing scandal dubbed coiffeurgate after the weekly paper Le Canard Enchaîné revealed that his personal hairdresser is on contract for almost €10,000 a month, paid from the public purse.

The publication of the contract with the hairdresser, named as Olivier B, has sparked a row over extravagant spending by a Socialist president who once liked to see himself as “Mr Normal”. … 

The Canard Enchaîné reported that in addition to his salary, Hollande’s hairdresser was entitled to a housing allowance and other family benefits. He never had a stand-in to replace him and demands on him were so tough that he had “missed the births of his children”.

The hairdresser – employed since Hollande took office and accompanying him on most of his foreign trips – is contracted to “maintain absolute secrecy about his work and any information he may have gathered both during and after his contract”.

It is the prerogative of all good socialist leaders – “DO as I say – not as I do”

 

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Revelations of crony corruption at the Swedish National Audit Office

July 13, 2016

riksrevisionen

The Swedish National Audit Office is part of the central control power of the Swedish Riksdag (Parliament). It ensures that the Riksdag receives a coordinated and independent audit of the state finances. This assignment is unique as the Swedish NAO is the only body that can audit the entire state finances.

It is supposed to audit the entire chain of executive power. It is intended to be an independent organization under the Riksdag and independent of those audited. Both performance- and financial audits are within its ambit. But Dagens Nyheter has been carrying out an investigation and in recent days has been revealing that the Office is far from independent. Both in staffing and in its operations it seems to be riddled with “cronyism” and “crony corruption”. An Agency intended to be a check against corruption (among other things) has been found to be corrupt itself. One Auditor General (Susanne Ackum) has resigned. The Swedish branch of Transparency International has called for all the 3 Auditor Generals to resign and for integrity to be reestablished:

Transparency International Sweden reacts strongly to the investigation of the National Audit Office carried by Dagens Nyheter. 

It shows that the Auditors have acted with a lack of integrity and judgment.

The National Audit Office is to contribute to the proper use of the state’s resources and that state administration is handled efficiently. The three Auditors General have a strong mandate for the independent review and the authority is to be a cornerstone in the fight against corruption in Sweden.

When the National Audit management do not follow the basic principles of good governance, ie integrity, impartiality and objectivity, and do not even comply with the international code of ethics, confidence is destroyed not only for individuals but also for the important work the Agency conducts. Transparency International Sweden believes in this context that all Auditor Generals should offer to resign.

Transparency International Sweden welcomes the announced meeting  called by the Constitutional Committee with the Auditors. The Committee should also consider their role in the recruitment process for this important office.

Given the National Audit Office’s  central role as part of parliamentary control, Transparency International Sweden believes that it is important that the Constitution Committee immediately and forcefully act to restore the Authority’s integrity.

Dagens Nyheter: Revelations about the National Audit Office

  1. Auditor General Ulf Bengtsson has interfered in an audit review of a decision which he himself was involved in.
  2. He gave his explicit support to a County governor audited by the National Audit Office.
  3. One of the National Audit Office’s senior managers had a private  SMS contact with the audited governor and promised to help her.
  4. The head of the Agency Supervisory Board warned the National Audit Office that DN was conducting an investigation. (DN had contacted him to get expert help in assessing unpublished data).
  5. The Auditors may have violated their own ethics rules. The internal guidelines say that employees may not take a position in a pending case.
  6. Auditor General Susanne Ackum has promised jobs to people before they are announced. E-mails reveal how she has given away jobs before a proper recruitment process has even started.
  7. Those recruited by Ackum receive on average 6,500 kronor per month more than their colleagues in similar positions. Her closest colleague gets 114,000 kronor/month.
  8. Those recruited by Susanne Ackum will lead audit examinations of policies that they themselves have helped to implement while at the Cabinet Office.
  9. Susanne Ackum has allowed people outside the National Audit Office, including the Cabinet Office, to take part in and influence the ongoing audits.
  10. At least one review has been shut down after Susanne Ackum discussed it with an official at the Cabinet Office.
  11. Even Susanne Ackum’s live-in partner has been allowed to read internal working documents and comment on documents not yet published.
  12. The National Audit Office’s chief economist is a well established political debater who has previously taken positions on matters related to taxes and the tax system. Now he is to lead the National Audit’s impartial review of the tax system.
  13. The Auditors have dropped an unusually high number of audits. They have canceled audit missions which had already consumed 19,000 man hours, at a cost of nearly ten million.

I am not all that surprised and just a little shocked that the Agency which is supposed to be a check on corruption is rife with cronyism. But it should be remembered that the entire Swedish party political system is built on “cronyism”. Party membership is tiny compared to the number of voters for each party. Yet it is this tiny membership which controls all public (tax-payer funded) positions. It is friends, and friends of friends, which governs. Not that that is any different to any “party democracy” in Europe. It only demonstrates once again that “party democracies” are quite different  – and often in conflict with –  “people democracies”.

 

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Not quite sunset over the Baltic

July 12, 2016

At this time of year, at this latitude, “sunset” is a rather diffuse business. Sometime after 10 pm the sun dips below the horizon a little east of North and then appears again around 3 am a little south of East.

These were taken on the Baltic (latitude c. 59.7ºN), while just leaving the Stockholm archipelago, looking roughly North-North-West at about 9pm.

baltic sunset 2

baltic sunset 1

Summer’s not over, but the days are getting shorter again.

 

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Black lives don’t matter – to other blacks

July 10, 2016

I dislike the slogan “Black Lives Matter”. It is fundamentally racist in that it implies that all other lives don’t matter. If it had been “Even Black Lives Matter” or “Black Lives Do Matter”, I would find the slogan more accurate and far more powerful. As it stands “Black Lives Matter” is a lie among blacks.

After the dreadful events of last week in the US one wonders what Obama has done for race relations in the last 8 years? Not much according to Politico (which is unashamedly pro-Obama):

Did Obama fail Black America?

….. Take criminal justice. Nothing in the day-to-day lives of black Americans is more menacing than their vulnerability to criminality on the one hand and mistreatment by police on the other. Yet on neither front has Obama focused the attention of the nation. … 

The president remains quiet. That has been a recurring pattern when it comes to African-American concerns. He might work on black issues behind the scenes. But he won’t be caught promoting them out front, not even now, when he is free of the burden of seeking reelection.

But returning to the slogan, what is abundantly clear is that black lives matter least to other blacks. This is from Professor Heather Mac Donald’s speech delivered on April 27, 2016, at Hillsdale College’s Allan P. Kirby, Jr. Center:

Every year, approximately 6,000 blacks are murdered. This is a number greater than white and Hispanic homicide victims combined, even though blacks are only 13 percent of the national population. Blacks are killed at six times the rate of whites and Hispanics combined. In Los Angeles, blacks between the ages of 20 and 24 die at a rate 20 to 30 times the national mean. Who is killing them? Not the police, and not white civilians, but other blacks. The astronomical black death-by-homicide rate is a function of the black crime rate. Black males between the ages of 14 and 17 commit homicide at ten times the rate of white and Hispanic male teens combined. Blacks of all ages commit homicide at eight times the rate of whites and Hispanics combined, and at eleven times the rate of whites alone. The police could end all lethal uses of force tomorrow and it would have at most a trivial effect on the black death-by-homicide rate. The nation’s police killed 987 civilians in 2015, according to a database compiled by The Washington Post. Whites were 50 percent—or 493—of those victims, and blacks were 26 percent—or 258. Most of those victims of police shootings, white and black, were armed or otherwise threatening the officer with potentially lethal force. The black violent crime rate would actually predict that more than 26 percent of police victims would be black. Officer use of force will occur where the police interact most often with violent criminals, armed suspects, and those resisting arrest, and that is in black neighborhoods. In America’s 75 largest counties in 2009, for example, blacks constituted 62 percent of all robbery defendants, 57 percent of all murder defendants, 45 percent of all assault defendants—but only 15 percent of the population. Moreover, 40 percent of all cop killers have been black over the last decade. And a larger proportion of white and Hispanic homicide deaths are a result of police killings than black homicide deaths—but don’t expect to hear that from the media or from the political enablers of the Black Lives Matter movement.

The “black lives matter” slogan might have some greater validity and be more convincing if  blacks did not kill each other so easily and in such great numbers. For blacks more than others – the statistics say –  lives don’t matter.

 

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The incontrovertible truth is that Iraq would have been a better place without Blair

July 6, 2016

There will be reams written about Chilcot but my view of Tony Blair does not change very much. If anything, I am more than ever convinced of Blair’s poodle-like fawning in Bush’s presence and his glorified image of himself.

“Flawed intelligence” and “actions in good faith” are Tony Blair’s defence. Certainly Blair’s character was (and still is) seriously flawed. That he has native cunning and intelligence is apparent but it is seriously skewed. Greed and self-glorification would seem to be his primary goals. “Good faith” is defined as being based on “sincere beliefs or motives without any malice or the desire to defraud others” and that certainly does not apply. He had malice aplenty and he wanted to impress Bush. His own country and his own soldiers and all of Iraq’s population were just collateral damage along the way to satisfying his enormous ego.

Would Iraq have been better off today with Saddam still around? That is impossible to answer. In fact, that is the wrong question. But it is incontrovertible that Iraq would have been better off without Tony Blair or George Bush.

Just as the real question today is whether the Ukraine or the Middle East would not have been better off without the sanctimonious interference of the EU, Obama and Kerry?

 

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Australia has the slowest election results in the world

July 6, 2016

Now 5 days after the Australian election the only clarity is that Labour will not be able to form a government and the Liberal coalition (with some independent support) may be able to just cobble together a majority.

It isn’t that electrons move slower in the Southern Hemisphere.  The Australian Electoral Commission just does not use electrons. It isn’t that Australians are sluggish in winter. It isn’t that they still use pigeon post in the bush (for pigeons are a lot faster than the AEC). Or that they still use dak runners. It isn’t that with the compulsory voting used in Australia, that the AEC first identifies all the “criminals” who haven’t voted before beginning the count. It isn’t – as vicious rumour would have it – that the unions insist that all vote counters must be permitted a tea-break for every 100 votes counted. It isn’t that every count has to be done in triplicate. It isn’t that the Australian Parliament does not have a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, but that is a body driven entirely by its fears and is not particularly courageous.

Or that the AEC is  grossly understaffed and has only 3 vote counters who are qualified.

Temporary Australian Electoral Commission workers

But whatever it is, results from a general election in Australia are the slowest in the world. All the seats in Parliament may not be settled for another 2 weeks. The Senate results may not be known till August. The Philippines, Bangladesh, India and even Rwanda are faster.

ABC News: “The fact the country has ground to a halt, as a result of a labour-intensive process that consumes nearly 75,000 people, to arrive at a result that could potentially be delivered in minutes electronically is intensely frustrating,” Dr David Glance, head of University of Western Australia Centre for Software Practice (UWACSP), said.

It is not that there are no suggestions as to how the medieval system used by the AEC could be improved (it is difficult to imagine any action which could make it worse). There are many countries which still use paper ballots but they all include some form of electronic enhancement of the counting process.

Veri.vote:

Distrust of full electronic voting has seen the nation persist with pencil-and-paper methods primary schools and community halls, though the issue has been considered after every federal election since 2001. In the 2000 US presidential election, punched card machines failed spectacularly after 170,000 votes were rejected as unreadable in parts of Florida. The voting debacle in that state was considered pivotal to the ­victory of George Bush over Democrat candidate Al Gore.

The veri.vote team say electoral commissions around Australia might now look more favourably on their technology, given the ­agonising delay of several days — or weeks in the case of the Senate — before winners are known.

Rumours are also emerging the Australian Electoral Commission faces irregularities on top of counting a remaining 3 million votes, including 1.5 million postal votes.

Veri.vote co-founder Cam ­Sinclair says such problems raise memories of the catastrophic WA Senate election, which was re-run in 2014 after 1370 ballot papers went missing. He says he was a scrutineer watching as 200 volunteers spent three weeks counting a second round of votes, in an antiquated system dating to the late 1800s.

“It’s such a cumbersome process of manual counting and handling large bits of paper,” he says. “That experience solidified my belief that there’s a better way.”

The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters held 20 hearings and reviewed more than 200 submissions before deciding ­Australia should stick to its largely paper-based system.

“Millions of Australians are now holding their breath to hear their nation’s fate, but the results literally move at the speed of paper,” says Mr Newnham. “With our system, you could get a result and a sausage sizzle on the same day.”

 

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