Posts Tagged ‘carbon dioxide’

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Hydro power plants can release more CO2 emissions than a coal plant

August 24, 2011

Man-made carbon-dioxide emissions are of little significance in the global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the effect of carbon dioxide concentration on global climate is of even less significance. In fact it is much more likely that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere follow global temperature rather than the other way around.

Nevertheless there are perceptions of fossil fuel fired power plants being terribly polluting and of being the dominant source of man-made emissions while hydro-power plants are perceived as being totally non-polluting. These perceptions are mainly based on pre-determined political positions and not necessarily on measurements or reality.

A new study from Brazil looking at the impact of hydro power plants and the Balbina dam has been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. One caveat of course with many such studies is that it is not based on measurements but on some measurement followed by hypotheses built into computer models. Nothing wrong with that of course but the weakness with many model results – as with climate models – is that the results can neither be verified or dis-proved by measurements.

Kemenes, A., B. R. Forsberg, and J. M. Melack (2011), CO2 emissions from a tropical hydroelectric reservoir (Balbina, Brazil), J. Geophys. Res., 116, G03004, doi:10.1029/2010JG001465 

Swedish Radio P1:

Electricity from hydropower can lead to several times the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions than produced from fossil fuels. At least from hydro-electric dams in the rain forest areas, according to a new study from Brazil. 

The Balbina dam, which was built fifteen years ago, is located north of Amazonas state capital Manaus. When the rain forest area here was flooded large amounts of organic material ended up at the bottom of the pond. Rotting vegetation then caused large emissions of carbon dioxide and methane. According to this study this corresponded to three tonnes of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy produced, which is almost ten times that of a coal-fired power plants, and just over half of the emissions from burning fossil fuels in the city ​​of São Paulo.

A recently published study of 85 hydroelectric dams in the world shows that emissions vary between different ponds, depending on size, age and what kind of soil is soaked. How big emissions Swedish hydroelectric dams produce has not yet been studied, but estimates indicate that they are significantly lower than from those in tropical areas in Brazil says Professor Philip Fernside of  Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) in Manaus. “It is true that dams in tropical areas such as the Amazon produces more than ponds in temperate climate, but there are emissions in these areas also” says Philip Fernside.

A pdf version of the paper is here.

 

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Posted in Brazil, Energy, Environment | 1 Comment »

Carbon dioxide follows temperature – what else?

August 6, 2011

The lecture given by  at the Sydney Institute is causing waves and he has a new paper in the works. Professor Murry Salby is Chair of Climate Science at Macquarie University. He’s been a visiting professor at Paris, Stockholm, Jerusalem, and Kyoto and has been deputed to the Bureau of Meterology in Australia.

Jo Nova reports that Salby was once an IPCC reviewer, and he comments, damningly, that if these results had been available in 2007, “the IPCC could not have drawn the conclusion that it did.” After speaking in carefully selected phrases, he  finished his presentation saying that “anyone who thinks the science is settled on this topic, is in fantasia”.

His talk is available here:  “Global Emission of Carbon Dioxide: The Contribution from Natural Sources”

“It’s not just that man-made emissions don’t control the climate, they don’t even control global CO2 levels”.

article image

CO2 variations do not correlate with man-made emissions. Peaks and falls correlate with hot years (e.g. 1998) and cold years (1991-92). No graphs are available from Salby's speech or paper yet. This graph comes from Tom Quirk's related work.: image via joannenova.com.au

Jo Nova posts a comprehensive report.

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Science | 2 Comments »

European Climate Action: Don’t know what it will cost, don’t know what it will achieve

March 10, 2011

They don’t know why and what it will cost and they don’t know what it will achieve but, The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a roadmap for building a low-carbon economy by 2050, proposing an 80 percent to 95 percent cut of greenhouse gas emissions from the 1990 levels.

“We need to start the transition towards a competitive low-carbon economy now. The longer we wait, the higher the cost will be,” Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, said when presenting the roadmap to European Union (EU) lawmakers in Strasbourg, France.

The roadmap described the cost-effective pathway to reach the EU’s objective of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent to 95 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050. It recommended Europe should achieve it largely through domestic measures since by mid-century international credits to offset emissions will be less widely available than today.

In the meantime Jill Duggan from the European Commission’s Directorate General of Climate Action and the EC’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change is in Australia to tell them how good Europe’s emission trading system is and why they should do something similar.  In a radio interview she demonstrated her ignorance.

Jill Duggan

Andrew Bolt

Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 01:38pmDuggan’s utter inability to answer is a scandal – an indictment of global warming politics today. (Listen here):

AB:  Can I just ask; your target is to cut Europe’s emissions by 20% by 2020?

JD:  Yes.

AB:  Can you tell me how much – to the nearest billions – is that going to cost Europe do you think?

JD:  No, I can’t tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it’s cheaper to start earlier rather than later, so  it’s cheaper to do it now rather than put off action.

AB:  Right.  You wouldn’t quarrel with Professor Richard Tol – who’s not a climate sceptic – but is professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin?  He values it at about $250 billion.  You wouldn’t quarrel with that?

JD:  I probably would actually.  I mean, I don’t know.  It’s very, very difficult to quantify.  You get different changes, don’t you?  And one of the things that’s happening in Europe now is that many governments – such as the UK government and the German government – would like the targets to be tougher because they see it as a real stimulus to the economy.

AB:  Right.  Well you don’t know but you think it isn’t $250 billion.

JD:  I think you could get lots of different academics coming up with lots of different figures.

AB:  That’s right.  You don’t know but that’s the figure that I’ve got in front of me.  For that investment.  Or for whatever the investment is.  What’s your estimation of how much – because the object ultimately of course is to lower the world’s temperatures – what sort of temperature reduction do you imagine from that kind of investment?

JD:  Well, what we do know is that to have an evens chance of keeping temperature increases globally to 2°C – so that’s increases – you’ve got to reduce emissions globally by 50% by 2050.

AB:  Yes, I accept that, but from the $250 billion – or whatever you think the figure is – what do you think Europe can achieve with this 20% reduction in terms of cutting the world’s temperature?  Because that’s, in fact, what’s necessary.  What do you think the temperature reduction will be?

JD:  Well, obviously, Europe accounts for 14% of global emissions.  It’s 500 or 550 million people.  On its own it cannot do that.  That is absolutely clear.

AB:  Have you got a figure in your mind?  You don’t know the cost.  Do you know the result?

JD:  I don’t have a cost figure in my mind. Nor, one thing I do know, obviously, is that Europe acting alone will not solve this problem alone.

AB:  So if I put a figure to you – I find it odd that you don’t know the cost and you don’t know the outcome – would you quarrel with this assessment:  that by 2100 – if you go your way and if you’re successful – the world’s temperatures will fall by 0.05°C?  Would you agree with that?

JD:  Sorry, can you just pass that by me again?  You’re saying that if Europe acts alone?

AB:  If just Europe alone – for this massive investment – will lower the world’s temperature with this 20% target (if it sustains that until the end of this century) by 0.05°C.  Would you quarrel with that?

JD:  Well, I think the climate science would not be that precise.  Would it?

AB:  Ah, no, actually it is, Jill.  You see this is what I’m curious about;  that you’re in charge of a massive program to re-jig an economy.  You don’t know what it costs.  And you don’t know what it’ll achieve.

JD:  Well, I think you can look at lots of modelling which will come up with lots of different costs.

AB:  Well what’s your modelling?  That’s the one that everyone’s quoting.  What’s your modelling?

JD:  Well, ah, ah. Let me talk about what we have done in Europe and what we have seen as the benefits.  In Europe, in Germany you could look at, there’s over a million new jobs that have been created by tackling climate change, by putting in place climate policies.  In the UK there’s many hundreds of thousand of jobs.

Full article and transcript is here.

The demonisation of carbon dioxide will probably continue for another 5 to 10 years until it becomes apparent that we are actually in a cooling period and therefore that man-made carbon dioxide is irrelevant and immaterial.

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Another perversion of science: Confirmation bias in the name of global warming dogma is also scientific misconduct

January 25, 2011

A new paper has been published in Ecology Letters

Ran Nathan, Nir Horvitz, Yanping He, Anna Kuparinen, Frank M. Schurr, Gabriel G. Katul. Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments. Ecology Letters, 2011; DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.

In this paper the authors have assumed that climate change will cause changes to CO2 concentration and wind speed. They have assumed also that increased CO2 will “increase fecundity and advance maturation”. They have then modelled the spread of 12 species as a function of wind speed.

So far so good – they have actually modelled only the effect of wind speed  which they assume will reduce due to climate change.

Their results basically showed no effect of wind speed:

“Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed”.

And now comes the perversion!

From their fundamental conclusion that wind speed has no effect and that therefore any CO2 increase resulting from climate change will enhance the spread of the trees, they invoke “expected” effects to deny what they have just shown:

“Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.”

This final conclusion is based on absolutely nothing  and their modelling showed nothing and yet this paper was accepted for publication. I have no problem that a result showing “no effect of wind speed” be published but suspect that it needed the nonsense, speculative conclusion to comply with current dogma.

Science Daily then produces the headline: Climate Change Threatens Many Tree Species

when the reality is

This study Shows No Effect of Wind Speed But Yet We Believe that Climate Change Threatens Many Tree Species

“Our research indicates that the natural wind-driven spread of many species of trees will increase, but will occur at a significantly lower pace than that which will be required to cope with the changes in surface temperature,” said Prof. Nathan. “This will raise extinction risk of many tree populations because they will not be able to track the shift in their natural habitats which currently supply them with favorable conditions for establishment and reproduction. As a result, the composition of different tree species in future forests is expected to change and their areas might be reduced, the goods and services that these forests provide for man might be harmed, and wide-ranging steps will have to be taken to ensure seed dispersal in a controlled, directed manner.”

Whether the perversion is by the authors themselves anticipating what is needed to get a paper published or whether it is due to pressure from the Journal Ecology Letters or by their referees is unclear.

Abstract:

Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.

In essence this paper is only based on belief and the results actually obtained are denied. It seems to me that denying or twisting or “moulding” results actually obtained to fit pre-conceived notions is not just a case of confirmation bias but comes very close to scientific misconduct.

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That man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends is irrational

October 24, 2010

 

Variations in temperature, CO 2 , and dust fro...

Vostok Ice core: Image via Wikipedia

 

One of a series of debate articles  in Ny Teknik by Professors Björnbom and Ribbing brings a refreshing whiff of sanity into the “closed and settled” science of global climate change. They conclude:

“To now stubbornly stick to the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends, is irrational in the headwinds from a growing number of critical articles based on measurements.”

Pehr Björnbom, Professor Emeritus, Chemical Engineering, KTH

Carl-Gustaf Ribbing, Professor Emeritus, Solid State Physics, Uppsala University

A free translation of their article is reproduced below:

Azar, Eriksson, Tjernström and Westerstrand, AETW, write: “strange that on the basis of only one study … rejecting decades of research “. This is a misleading summary of many years of development. For our article, and the references to the PDF version, showing a lower climate sensitivity than that shown by the UN’s Climate Change organisation, the IPCC, is not a new phenomenon. In less than ten years, the IPCC’s high values have been  disputed, partly because global warming has been lower than was predicted.

Instead of reducing the excessive carbon dioxide sensitivity the aerosol contribution has been increased to reduce climate sensitivity. In principle it is better to use measurements from high altitude, rather than parameter dependent adaptations to climate models to the Earth’s surface temperature.

AETW write about the glacial cycles that it is “.. very difficult to explain how Earth’s temperature can vary by as much as five degrees … between an ice age and a non-glacial climate when sensitivity is … one degree or less. ” It is “very difficult” only with today’s climate, which shows that the narrow focus on “explaining” the climate variations of carbon dioxide leads to absurdities.
We wonder why Per Ribbing blames us for over-simplification? What we are against is precisely the unilateral selection of the carbon dioxide created by human activity to be the dominant factor in climate regulation. We assert the contrary, that a half-dozen natural factors govern the very complex climate system. It will probably never be scientifically possible to completely describe this chaotic system.
Spencer and Braswell are making great progress with their phase diagram, so that variations in the natural driving forces can be separated from the feedbacks. This gives a higher correlation and a more accurate value of climate sensitivity: 0.6 degrees without the aid of climate models.
This uncertainty gives the obvious; that values can increase or decrease for longer periods than any measuring period. To now stubbornly stick to the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate trends, is unreasonable in the headwinds from a growing number of critical articles based on measurements.

Pehr Björnbom, Professor Emeritus, Chemical Engineering, KTH

Carl-Gustaf Ribbing, Professor Emeritus, Solid State Physics, Uppsala University

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“CO2 is a valuable resource” – New Scientist

September 29, 2010
Carbon dioxide

CO2 molecule

Greenhouses to negate greenhouse effects?

The New Scientist today says “Carbon dioxide may be bad for the climate, but it’s good for the roses. Perhaps it’s time we rehabilitated this gaseous villain”.

While plenty of commercial greenhouses top up their air with extra CO2, what is unusual about this one is where its CO2 comes from. Until a few years ago, the greenhouse’s operators used to burn natural gas for the sole purpose of generating CO2. Today it is piped from a nearby oil refinery. Each year, 400,000 tonnes of CO2 are captured and then piped to around 500 greenhouses between Rotterdam and The Hague, where it is absorbed by the growing plants before they are shipped for sale around the world .

“It’s time we stopped thinking of CO2 solely as a pollutant and viewed it as a valuable resource,” says Gabriele Centi, a chemist at the University of Messina, Italy.

Cash for carbon

Capturing carbon dioxide from smokestacks and then pumping it underground is going to be an expensive way to combat climate change. For a coal-fired power plant, for instance, the process is expected to add 30 per cent to the cost of generating electricity. However, a handful of entrepreneurs are already beginning to turn a costly waste product into a valuable commodity.

Wikipedia

Take some flower-growing greenhouses in the Netherlands. There, CO2 emitted from a nearby oil refinery is piped to the plants, boosting their growth (pictured, and see main story). The scheme began in 2005, when Organic Carbon Dioxide for Assimilation of Plants (OCAP), a newly formed gas supplier, began pumping waste CO2from the refinery to the greenhouses along a disused oil pipeline. The refinery sells the CO2 to OCAP at a profit, which then sells the gas to greenhouses at a price lower than what they were paying to burn natural gas to generate CO2. “I think the best way to fight climate change is making money out of it, otherwise our efforts wouldn’t survive in the long term,” says OCAP director Hendrik de Wit.

Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727791.100-emission-control-turning-carbon-trash-into-treasure.html?full=true

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Posted in Agriculture, Energy, Environment | 7 Comments »

Confirmed: Crops respond positively to increased carbon dioxide

September 19, 2010

Crops responded positively to future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but soil tillage practices had little effect on this response, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study.

http://www.physorg.com/news203852397.html

Higher carbon dioxide levels used on crops, examined

Raised carbon dioxide improves crop yields

The first long-term study comparing tillage practices under high CO2 levels showed that elevated CO2 caused soybean and sorghum plants to increase photosynthesis while reducing transpiration-the amount of water the plants release. This resulted in increased water use efficiency, whether the  were grown with no-till or conventional tillage, according to researchers with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS).

Plant physiologist Steve Prior, plant pathologist Brett Runion, and their colleagues at the ARS National Soil Dynamics Laboratory in Auburn, Ala., found that water use efficiency response to high CO2 was much greater for soybeans than for sorghum over the 6-year study. The scientists also compared current ambient CO2 levels—about 370 parts per million (ppm)—with levels of 720 ppm. With the higher level of CO2, regardless of tillage method, soybean photosynthesis increased by about 50 percent, while sorghum photosynthesis rose by only 15 percent. This was expected because crops like soybean, which have a C3 photosynthetic pathway, are known to respond better to high CO2 levels than crops like sorghum and corn that have a C4 photosynthetic pathway. Most plants worldwide are C3 plants.

Photosynthesis - CO2 concentration graph

Carbon dioxide concentration and Photosynthesis

Although no-till didn’t make a difference as far as crops responding to high CO2, it can greatly reduce soil erosion, conserve  , and increase carbon storage, among its many benefits.

The results of this research were published earlier this year in the Journal of Environmental Quality.

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New Carbon Dioxide Emissions Model !!

August 3, 2010

Yet another model which seems to indulge in circular argument – again.

The now discredited methodology  of the 4th IPCC Asessment report will be used to produce model calculations for the 5th IPCC Asessment report and, I suppose the 5th will lead to the 6th and so on ad infinitum!

It seems like a methodology to ensure the keeping of climate modellers in work for ever.

Erich Roeckner, Marco A. Giorgetta, Traute Crueger, Monika Esch, Julia Pongratz. Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations. Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9886-6

According to Science Daily

The scientists used a new method with which they reconstructed historical emission pathways on the basis of already-calculated carbon dioxide concentrations. To do this, Erich Roeckner and his team adopted the methodology proposed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for simulations being carried out for the future Fifth IPCC Assessment Report: earth system models that incorporate the carbon cycle were used to estimate the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that are compatible with a prescribed concentration pathway. In this case, the emissions depend solely on the proportion of the anthropogenic carbon in the model that is absorbed by the land surface and the oceans. Repetition of the experiments using different pre-industrial starting dates enabled the scientists to distinguish between anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability.

“It will take centuries for the global climate system to stabilise,” says Erich Roeckner.

And perhaps decades for the funding to continue.

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