IF THE GLOBE IS WARMING, WHERE’S THE HEAT?
Arctic Ice levels are increasing fast and are within 1 standard deviation of the 1979-2000 mean.
Arctic Ice Extent 20131018 DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice
In the Anatrctic ice extent should normally have started reducing by 22nd Sepptember but kept increasing till about 1st October. At maximum it reached levels never recorded before. It is currently at a level more than 2 standard deviations higher than the long term 1981 – 2010 average.
Antarctic Ice Extent 20131018 NSIDC Boulder
This leads to obvious but simple conclusions:
- Over the last 34 years therefore, Arctic ice extent has shown great variability but is currently at values within one standard deviation of the 30 year average.
- Global warming – if it is taking place – has not left any significant signature in the extent of Arctic Ice which is larger than “natural variability”.
- Over the last 32 years Antarctic ice extent has consistently shown a small but steady increase.
- Global warming – if it is taking place – is completely absent in the record of the ice extent.
It could be argued – but it would stretch credulity – that heat is being stored in the deep ocean (having bypassed the surface waters by a hitherto unknown form of “deep sea radiation”) and that this will all be released in a coming catastrophic event (to be known as the Ehrlich Rapture) in 2047.
Or, it could be argued – again with little credibility – that man-made particulate emissions from China in the Northern Hemisphere and from Indonesian forest fires in the Southern Hemisphere have reflected away the Sun’s radiation and prevented the warming that should have taken place. This argument then fails since it would appear to describe a very successful application – if inadvertent – of geo-engineering.
Or we could choose the parsimonious explanation. There has been no global warming for the last 2 decades or so.
Any discussion about whether or how much warming is caused by carbon dioxide emissions becomes moot if there is no warming.
The k2p blog 