Posts Tagged ‘India Meteorological Department’

Late surge gives some flooding but overall a “normal” 2012 Indian monsoon

September 30, 2012

 

The official 4-month monsoon season in India ends today and the IMD has issued its last press release for this season.

Rainfall was lower than normal in the first two months (-22% at the end of July) and surged somewhat in the final two.  The monsoon takes the shape of a skewed “U” and advances N-W and withdraws to the S-E. The withdrawal of the South-West monsoon is underway but it is slightly delayed and this late withdrawal also helps in bringing additional rainfall especially at the ends of the “U”  in the North-West and the North-East (with flooding recently in Pakistan and Assam).

Withdrawal of 2012 monsoon: IMD

Until September 26th, total rainfall was running about 7% less than the long-term average and within “normal” limits.

2012 Monsoon – Cumulative rainfall till 26th September : IMD

Though total rainfall will be almost “normal”, agricultural production will be slightly disturbed because of the uneven rainfall during the 4 months.

Related: https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/with-3-weeks-to-go-the-indian-monsoon-rains-have-recovered-somewhat/

 

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With 3 weeks to go the Indian monsoon rains have recovered somewhat

September 10, 2012

The Indian monsoon season officially covers the 4 months from June to September. Rainfall after the first 2 months was running some 25% less than “normal” and there were fears of severe effects not only directly on agricultural output but also for the knock-on effects on agriculture-related industry. But with 3 weeks left to go the rains seem to have recovered partially such that the total rainfall is running only 8% less than”normal”.

From IMD

2012 monsoon rainfall till 10th September / image IMD

At the end of July the rainfall map was dominated by “pink” deficient states and with even a couple of “yellow” scanty states. The situation has improved considerably though the late rains will not be as beneficial as they could have been a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, 2012 will probably be considered – statistically – a pretty average year and this monsoon will not be a “bad” one. Since the difference between a “good” monsoon (about +10 -15%) and a bad one (-15%)  is thought to about 2% for the annual GDP, this partial recovery will come as a relief to many.

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