Following peak oil and peak gas it now seems that “peak copper” is also disappearing over the horizon. Researchers at Monash University show that known copper reserves with existing recovery technologies are sufficient at least for 100 years and not just 30.
The fundamental fault with the alarmist image of resources running out – following a classic M. King Hubbert curve – is that alternatives to the resource and new discoveries of the resource are not taken into account. Added to this is the changes to consumption patterns that come about with changes of technology and with changes of price as a resource dwindles in availability. In fact it is the price change which itself acts a spur to the finding of alternatives and new technologies which do not even need that particular resource. “Peak” scenarios are a consequence of using numbers without the exercise of mind.
MU Press Release: New research shows that existing copper resources can sustain increasing world-wide demand for at least a century, meaning social and environmental concerns could be the most important restrictions on future copper production.
Researchers from Monash University have conducted the most systematic and robust compilation and analysis of worldwide copper resources to date. Contrary to predictions estimating that supplies of this important metal would run out in around 30 years, the research has found there are plenty of resources within the reach of current technologies.
The database, published in two peer-reviewed papers, was compiled by Dr Gavin Mudd and Zhehan Weng from Environmental Engineering and Dr Simon Jowitt from the School of Geosciences. It is based on mineral resource estimates from mining companies and includes information vital for carbon and energy-use modelling, such as the ore grade of the deposits.
Dr Jowitt said the database could change the industry’s understanding of copper availability.
“Although our estimates are much larger than any previously available, they’re a minimum. In fact, figures for resources at some mining projects have already doubled or more since we completed the database,” Dr Jowitt said.
“Further, the unprecedented level of detail we’ve presented will likely improve industry practice with respect to mineral resource reporting and allow more informed geological exploration.”
Dr Mudd said the vast volumes of available copper meant the mining picture was far more complex than merely stating there were ‘x’ years of supply left. …..
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The researchers will now undertake detailed modelling of the life cycles and greenhouse gas impacts of potential copper production, and better assessment of future environmental impacts of mining.
They will also create similar databases for other metals, such as nickel, uranium, rare earths, cobalt and others, in order to paint a comprehensive picture of worldwide mineral availability.
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