The Indian monsoon season officially covers the 4 months from June to September. Rainfall after the first 2 months was running some 25% less than “normal” and there were fears of severe effects not only directly on agricultural output but also for the knock-on effects on agriculture-related industry. But with 3 weeks left to go the rains seem to have recovered partially such that the total rainfall is running only 8% less than”normal”.
From IMD
2012 monsoon rainfall till 10th September / image IMD
At the end of July the rainfall map was dominated by “pink” deficient states and with even a couple of “yellow” scanty states. The situation has improved considerably though the late rains will not be as beneficial as they could have been a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, 2012 will probably be considered – statistically – a pretty average year and this monsoon will not be a “bad” one. Since the difference between a “good” monsoon (about +10 -15%) and a bad one (-15%) is thought to about 2% for the annual GDP, this partial recovery will come as a relief to many.
The k2p blog 