Posts Tagged ‘Technology’

Alarmism and the perversion of science

June 6, 2010

Alarmism clearly pays.

The use of inflated fears of catastrophe to extract vast amounts of funding  is not perhaps a new phenomenon but in recent times has become so prevalent that it has led to the perversion of the scientific method, the utterly meaningless and false „precautionary principle“ and the prostitution of the peer-review process.

The Y2K hype surrounding doomsday scenarios of computers crashing around the world led to vast amounts of money  being spent by governments, industry and individuals for totally unnecessary activities and preparations. The experiences in those countries (such as Ukraine or Romania) where virtually nothing was done and nothing happened clearly demonstrate that the fears had been grossly exaggerated.The „precautionary principle“ replaced common sense and was used to justify the doing of even useless things to avoid catastrophe. I doubt there was any real conspiracy but I am convinced that the realisation that exagerrated fears of catastrophe could be used to extract large sums of money from those unable or unwilling to apply common sense led to a global wave of opportunism from the IT and related consultants. I too was caught up in the hype and hindsight is wonderful but I never did come across an IT professional who could clearly explain what would happen though each one had a different version of what could happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/climate-theory-like-y2k-scam/1354506.aspx

http://news.cnet.com/FTC-settles-Y2K-fraud-case/2100-1091_3-233220.html

The arrogance of the Global Warming brigade and the prostitution of the peer review process by a select few (the Hockey Stick Team) has been used by pseudo-scientists, a few genuine scientists and innumerable politicians to extract huge sums of money for funding so-called „Climate Science“ projects – though no such science exists. Whole departments of „Climate Science“ have been established, the now infamous IPCC was established by the UN, results from poor and mediocre mathematical models have been taken as Gospel and the scientific method has been perverted. The sun and its overwhelming influence has been ignored. Carbon dioxide has become the villain and data has been fudged. The effects of clouds and water vapour –though having a dominating influence – have been too difficult to model and have been ignored. „Greenhouse gas“ has become a dirty word though we continue to expand our use of greenhouses to nurture life. No doubt the amount of money involved has provided an irresistable temptation.

http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/5/29/more-coverage-of-royal-society-rebellion.html

http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/06/scientists-got-it-wrong

But Global Warming has run its course and the new alarmism surrounding Global Cooling is gaining momentum.We may be entering a new Maunder minimum (perhaps to be called the Landscheidt minimum) which portends a new mini-ice-age. There is money to be made and the more the alarm the greater the funding that can be extracted.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

The exagerrated fear of a swine-flu pandemic has led to the useless and unnecessary production and stockpiling of drugs and mass vaccinations. Whether this was a concerted effort by the pharmaceutical companies and their hired helpers in the medical world can never be proven, but it is another example of alarmism and the replacement of common sense by the „precautionary principle“ generating the flow of huge sums of money. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/04/AR2010060404608.html

„The WHO’s response caused widespread, unnecessary fear and prompted countries to waste millions of dollars, according to one report. At the same time, the Geneva-based arm of the United Nations relied on advice from experts with ties to drug makers in developing the guidelines it used to encourage countries to stockpile millions of doses of antiviral medication, according to the second report.”

UK Airspace was never actually closed !!!

April 19, 2010

As criticism mounts over the alarmist behaviour based largely on bureaucratic processes, in turn based on computer modelling, it turns out that UK airspace was never legally closed following the Icelandic dust cloud !!!

Criticism is also growing in Sweden and Norway for blindly following UK Met Office projections without confirming them by measurement.

The Financial Times reports:

The National Air Traffic Services body has appeared to be the one legally responsible for closing Britain’s airspace. This is because NATS, which provides airlines with air traffic control services, made the first announcements on April 14 about airspace restrictions after the cloud of ash began drifting over the UK. On Sunday night, it announced that restrictions would be in place until at least 7pm, Monday . NATS is not a regulator, however, and cannot legally close airspace. That power lies with the Civil Aviation Authority, which regulates aviation on behalf of the Department of Transport. So far, the CAA has not used this power. “At no point has UK airspace been shut. It’s legally open,” a CAA spokesman said.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39cbf638-4b45-11df-a7ff-00144feab49a.html

Precautionary principle is fatally flawed

April 18, 2010

Finally as reported by the BBC the nonsensical bans on flights in Europe are being questioned.

“Europe’s air industry has called for an urgent review of flight bans imposed because of volcanic ash from Iceland………Airlines that have carried out test flights say planes showed no obvious damage after flying through the ash.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8628323.stm

The volcanic ash plume from Iceland, top left, to northern France, pictured by Nasa's Terra Satellite , 17 April

Photo: NEODAAS/University of Dundee/AP

Wherever the Precautionary Principle is used to justify restrictions on human activity it is because a political agenda is being served but common sense dictates otherwise. It is usually resorted to by polticians and bureaucrats who defend a process in the name of avoiding the “common bad” even if the results of the process are against the common good.

Big Brother in Europe is alive and well but it is time to put this pseudo-science to bed.

Metals price recovery confirms recession is over

April 18, 2010

China with around 12% and India at around 8% growth have shrugged off the recession and seem to be providing much of the power behind the global recovery.

The Indian Finance Minister seems to think that Indian growth rates could even overtake China’s.

http://business.rediff.com/report/2010/mar/31/india-poised-to-overtake-chinas-growth-rate-chidambaram.htm

Basic metal prices provide a solid sanity check and the recovery of metal prices is well underway. Recovery of Nickel price is a good indicator that specialised and stainless steels are back in demand again.

The steel cartel is becoming active again after having a couple of years with nothing to shout about, and seems to be mainly driven by the demand from China.

http://www.infomine.com/

Sanity Check

April 18, 2010

A bright spring Sunday with blue skies over this part of Sweden.

But the skies over Europe are still closed due to the largely invisible ash cloud.

Lufthansa and KLM have made some test flights in the ash cloud with no sign of any damage. KLM hope to fly seven planes back from Germany during today (Sunday). Lufthansa flew 10 test flights bewteen Frankfurt and Munich on Saturday at 3000m and 8000 m altitude without incident.

Perhaps sanity will prevail and common sense will return.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63G1U920100417