Archive for March, 2011

The dark side of black

March 31, 2011

From Kyodo News:

Radiation fears have prevented authorities from collecting as many as 1,000 bodies of victims of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami from within the 20-kilometer-radius evacuation zone around the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, police sources said Thursday.

One of the sources said bodies had been ”exposed to high levels of radiation after death.” The view was supported by the detection Sunday of elevated levels of radiation on a body found in Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, about 5 km from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

The authorities are now considering how to collect the bodies, given fears that police officers, doctors and bereaved families may be exposed to radiation in retrieving the radiation-exposed bodies or at morgues, according to the sources.

Even after the bodies are handed over to the victims’ families, cremating them could spread plumes containing radioactive materials, while burying the victims could contaminate the soil around them.

The following are the latest casualty figures related to the earthquake and tsunami that hit northeastern and eastern Japan on March 11, according to the National Police Agency as of 9 p.m. Thursday:

Number of people killed 11,532

Number of people missing 16,441


 

A “Culture of Courage” in management — from “Essence of a Manager”

March 31, 2011

“Without fear being present, bravery and courage do not appear on stage.”

From Chapter 7,  Essence of a Manager

Courage is the subordination of fear to purpose.

A manager is perforce required to take risk. Every judgment or selection or decision he takes results in actions with an uncertain outcome. The presence of risk and the uncertainty about results inevitably give rise to apprehensions and fears. It is a manager’s task to subordinate such fears and continue with judiciously chosen actions towards his objectives. Extending his capability for taking actions and stretching the envelope of actions available to him are key elements of his core competence. It is his courage which enables him to operate in new and untried areas which are outside his comfort zone and thereby generate a steady stream of brave actions.

A manager can create a “courage space” around himself and as this expands and grows and meets other spaces of courage a “culture of courage” can develop within an organisation. ……

It has always struck me that super-heroes must be particularly devoid of courage since their fantastic abilities must mean that they have little opportunity to feel any fear. ….

Is cash crunch just a ruse to get SAAB into Russian ownership?

March 30, 2011

While SAAB’s production has ground to a halt as supplies dry up because of non-payment of suppliers dues and SAAB’s owners Spyker Cars sees its share price drop, comes news of further efforts by the Russian financier Vladimir Antonov to gain entry as an owner of SAAB. He has been trying to get in for some time and “money on the table” could be irresistible if Spyker and SAAB are really going through a cash crunch.

Vladimir Antonov

Spyker’s report warned – a little unexpectedly – of a cash crunch last Friday. Could it be that this is an elaborate ruse between Spyker and Antonov? I am probably being a little cynical but with Russian finance I have learnt that nothing is ever as it seems and conspiracy theories are not necessarily as far fetched as they might seem. The Swedish government does not want Antonov to get in as a SAAB owner but Victor Muller and Spyker Cars do.

I suspect that the liquidity crisis at SAAB has been – at least partly – engineered by Spyker and Antonov.

SvD reports:

The Russian financier Vladimir Antonov has filed a formal application to Sweden’s National Debt Office to go in as the owner of Saab Automobile. This was confirmed by  the Debt Office and Antonov himself for TTELA.

“We can confirm that we received an application from Vladimir Antonov, yesterday  (Tuesday)  evening, but, because of commercial confidentiality, can not say what it contains, “said Daniel Barr, project manager for Saab at the Debt Office, to TTELA.
Even Vladimir Antonov confirmed briefly that he had submitted an application. Previously, he has declared that he wants to go in with capital of between 440-620 million SEK , so that  Saab and its parent company Spyker Cars NV can get a better buffer capital. Such money could be used in times of a liquidity crisis.
The Debt Office will process the application and submit a statement to the Government. The government will then makes a decision on the matter. The Debt Office does not comment on applications received.

From the Spyker financial statements presented on Friday, it appears that cash flow reduced faster than expected in late 2010 partly because of  lower sales volumes and  large investments. At the end of 2010 the company had  negative equity and a working capital of 220 million euros, equivalent to almost 2 billion Swedish krona.
Vladimir Antonov and his banking group Convers Group.have submitted the  application to the Debt Office. Oleg Sukhorukov, vice president of Convers Group, would not give any additional comments.


Vladimir Aleksandrovich Antonov (born 1975) is a Russian banker, entrepreneur and investor. In 2007 Antonov’s personal wealth was estimated at $300,000,000 which ranks him as number 182 among Russian millionaires.

In February 2011, it was announced that Spyker Cars NV, the Dutch owner of Saab Automobile, agreed to sell its sports-car unit to Vladimir Antonov. Antonov, a former Spyker chairman and shareholder, is expected to pay 15 million euros ($21 million) for the company.

In 2007, Bankas Snoras acquired 29.9% of Dutch luxury automobile manufacturer, Spyker Cars, making Vladimir Antonov the single largest shareholder in the company.

In January 2010, it was reported that General Motors was preparing to sell Saab to Spyker for a nominal fee, and that the Swedish government had agreed to guarantee loans for the purchase from the European Investment Bank (EIB). If the takeover had been successful, the Saab brand and its operations would have been largely unaffected.

Antonov’s interests (29.9% of the shares) in Spyker Cars were said to have delayed the purchase of Saab Automobile in late 2009. An investigation by the Swedish monetary agency Riksgälden and the Swedish security police Säpo had allegedly found connections between the Antonov family and organized crime, as well as involvement in money laundering. Säpo reported their findings to the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation, and shortly afterwards GM stopped further talks about the deal until the Antonov family had sold their shares in Spyker Cars.

In January 2011, it was reported that GM was preparing to reverse its decision not to allow Antonov to hold a financial interest in Spyker and Saab and allow him to invest. Antonov said that he has no “connection to any criminal people” and that he had hired an investigative firm to produce evidence that he has no criminal background.

Victor Muller Spyker cars

In December 2010, it was reported by Swedish financial newspaper, Dagens Industri, that two independent reports, one of which was commissioned by the Swedish government had shown that there was no evidence that Vladimir Antonov is guilty of any of the accusations made against him. Victor Muller, CEO of Spyker Cars, also stated that he believed Vladimir Antonov to be innocent of the accusations. Following this, Antonov acquired the sportcars division of Spyker Cars NV.

Maybe this all just to get Antonov to be a “white knight riding to SAAB’s rescue” but something does not smell right.

TEPCO stocks are on their way to losing all value

March 30, 2011

Shares in Tokyo Electric, commonly known as TEPCO, dropped another 17.7 percent on Wednesday to 466 yen and trading was later stopped.

Chart: tepco stock 20110330

It seems inevitable that TEPCO stocks will lose all their value and will be driven to zero – unless nationalisation comes first. Now even the largest shareholders are being hit:

Shares in TEPCO’s main bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , which is also a large shareholder with a 2.7 percent holding, fell 2.1 percent.
Dai-ichi Life Insurance , which is the second-largest shareholder in TEPCO with 4.1 percent stake, rose 3 percent after Deutsche Securities said the impact of TEPCO stock price fall is limited on its embedded value, a measure of an insurer’s worth that includes the present value of future earnings from life insurance contracts.  However, Dai-ichi shares have fallen 18 percent compared with a 10.3 percent decline in the benchmark Nikkei 225 index .

There is a vacuum in the leadership of TEPCO. The President of TEPCO Masataka Shimizu has been hospitalized for high blood pressure and dizziness. Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata will take over operation of the power company. He is 70 years old and faces an unenviable task.

Tsunehisa Katsumata: kyoto photo

Tsunehisa Katsumata served as President of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc., from October 2002 to June 2008. Mr. Katsumata has been the Chairman of Tokyo Electric Power Co. Inc., since June 2008. Mr. Katsumata serves as Chairman of the Board of Federation Of Electric Power Companies of Japan. He has been an Outside Director of Sompo Japan Insurance Inc. and NKSJ Holdings, Inc. since April 1, 2010. Mr. Katsumata has been a Director of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc. since June 1996. He serves as an Outside Director at KDDI Corp. He serves as Chairman of Evaluation Committee at Japan Finance Corporation.

Class and Diamonds from “Essence of a Manager”

March 30, 2011
A scattering of "brilliant" cut diam...

Image via Wikipedia

Class from “Essence of a Manager”:

Class is not appearance and it is not personality or charisma; it is a style and elegance of behaviour and a consistency of actions.

The cut of a diamond as an analogy for class:

Class in a person is reminiscent to me of the cut of a diamond. A master diamond cutter chooses the facets he cuts to give the most pleasing whole in accordance with his own aesthetics and to suit a particular stone. He tries to create his composition of cuts to get the most impressive combination of the brilliance (due to light reflected out from the interior) and fire (due to refracted light within the stone) that he can. He polishes the facets to get the lustre (light reflected from the surface) he wants. Raw stones have their internal characteristics and colour and flaws, which both enable and restrict what cuts are possible. The master cutter’s level of skill may further define the type and fineness and symmetry of the cuts that are feasible. He optimises between waste reductions on the one hand against size and cut of the gems resulting from a single raw stone on the other. Sometimes, and especially if some flaw exists in the stone, the cutter will sacrifice size to get an improved brilliance or fire or scintillation. He may even deliberately use a flaw to enhance the fire or he may cut away a flaw to enhance the brilliance. He may vary the cut and polish depending upon the colour and clarity of the stone. He may design his cuts to enhance the colour which is near the surface of the stone. He combines and compounds his skills with the characteristics of the stone and compensates for its flaws to create the finished gem-stone. The value of a finished diamond rests in its size and clarity and colour and above all, in its cut.

A good manager is his own master diamond cutter. His fundamental attributes are his various facets and his weaknesses are his flaws. It is his own aesthetics and his awareness of his strengths and weaknesses which lead to the manner in which he combines, compounds or compensates for his attributes. The manner of their combination leads to his behaviour which when it is then observed in the light of the society he operates in shows up as his class. His behaviour defines his class. Therefore class is not something which is or can be developed explicitly, but it develops as a consequence of an individual’s awareness of his own strengths and weaknesses. An imperfect balance of his attributes improves as he develops his weak points or compensates for them. Inevitably his behaviour develops and matures. But classy behaviour, when observed, can be emulated.  Feedback from the surrounding society about the behaviour observed can be built upon. Emulation requires more than superficial replication of a behaviour pattern. It needs the development of the fundamental attributes as well. Merely copying behaviour which is not backed up by the soundness of the underlying attributes is not sustainable. Classy behaviour when it is just faked is undertaken for the sake of appearance and not because of any conviction of what is considered the right and correct thing to do. It is then like having fake diamonds of cubic zirconia or of silicon carbide, which glitter and can deceive but which shatter if subjected to impact stress.

Is SAAB Automobile nearing a bankruptcy?

March 30, 2011

When suppliers don’t get paid a vicious circle begins of : lack of cash >> unpaid dues>> lack of some critical supplies>> reduction of production>> stoppage of other supplies>> diminishing of trust>> withdrawal of credit >>leading to a further lack of cash. After years of living from hand-to-mouth but still producing what I consider one of the best cars on the road, SAAB automobile may now be approaching a fateful point in an illustrious history.

Svenska Dagbladet:

There are worrying signs that came out from Saab Automobile on Tuesday night. Saab may have suffered an acute liquidity crisis. Saab production, according to several sources came to a standstill on Tuesday because suppliers were not paid. Even union IF Metall’s Chairman Hakan Skött confirmed that production had stopped. And then came the news at 8pm on Tuesday night, that Saab’s advertising agency Lowe Brindfors had suspended their ongoing engagement due to nonpayment.

In recent weeks, warning bells have been ringing louder and louder. Saab’s new CFO quit before he even had time to start. And one of Saab’s heaviest funders, Pieter Heerema, who had lent 25 million U.S. dollars, recently abandoned Spyker’s board with immediate effect.

And then the CEO Jan Ake Jonsson left, oddly enough just last Friday after Spyker came up with its report – even if is due to stay until May on paper. But the issue of  of Saab’s liquidity has become serious just recently. When I asked the chairman Victor Muller last Friday in connection with the report whether Saab has enough capital to pay bills this year, he replied that “probably not”. The report also described that liquidity is lower than expected. But Muller was talking in his characteristically intense way that they will find solutions – including selling their new platform Phoenix to other automakers.

But the signals that came in Tuesday night are very worrying.

Saab could choose to put a lid on it.

It would be of great regret if SAAB Automobiles went bankrupt. But perhaps SAAB have had their day and it is time to move on.

 

TEPCO leadership in disarray as share price drops to 47 year low and Government considers nationalisation

March 29, 2011

TEPCO staff along with SDF forces, police and firefighters at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant are making heroic efforts to get the radiation leakages under control. But they are being let down by the leadership of TEPCO. And the performance of their President  Masataka Shimizu has particularly come in for much criticism.

The company’s stock price dropped 18 % today as shares reached their lowest level in 47 years. TEPCO has dropped to about 20% of the value it had a few weeks ago. The total liabilities that TEPCO may have to face are a long way ftom being known and could exceed $25 billion. As a corporation they could not survive and the Japanese government is considering the nationalisation of just the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant as well as the nationalisation of the entire company as possible options. In any event there is little chance of the current stock holders of TEPCO  ever getting any return or even of holding on to any significant value in their ownership.

BBC reports:

Speculation is growing that the Japanese government may start talks to nationalise Tokyo Electric Power, which owns the Fukushima nuclear plant.

The company has said it will need to raise about $25bn (£15.6bn) to shore up its finances. The talk of Tepco being nationalised has been fuelled by a statement from cabinet minister Koichiro Gemba to the Reuters news agency that a discussion about bailing out Tepco was possible.

But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the government was not currently considering a nationalisation. “Although details cannot be seen such as how exactly the government is going to nationalise the company, as long as there are concerns that Tepco may be nationalised, investors don’t want to hold the stock,” said Hajime Nakajima of Cosmo Securities.

On Tuesday a flood of sell orders caused Tepco shares to stop being traded temporarily. A day earlier, the shares dropped to their lowest level in three decades.

Tepco shares have dropped to 566 Yen from a 52 week high of 2,500 Yen.

related: TEPCO was ready to give up and abdicate on 14th March

“Essence of a Manager” released

March 29, 2011

Print copies of my book have been released.

The accompanying press release is here: Essence of a Manager press release english



China’s indigenous MA 600 short haul aircraft goes into service

March 28, 2011

Xinhua News:

March 25, 2011 MA600 aircraft in Luoyang City of central China's Henan Province. (Xinhua/Li Qiaoqiao)

One of China’s new generation of short-haul passenger aircraft, the MA600, was put into use Saturday at a civil aviation training base in southwest China’s Sichuan Province.

The “Modern Ark” 600 was delivered in December last year to the Civil Aviation Flight University of China (CAFUC) by its manufacturer, the Xi’an Aircraft International Corporation (XAIC), which is based in northwestern China’s Shaanxi Province.

CAFUC ordered two MA600 aircraft at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, which was held in the city of Zhuhai in Guangdong Province in November 2010.

The MA600 is an upgraded version of the company’s MA60 passenger aircraft and can carry 50 to 60 passengers. The aircraft has been updated with a more comfortable cabin and other design improvements.

“The MA600 also features better performance in regards to safety and fuel efficiency,” said Wang Kaiyin, an official with the CAFUC. The turboprop aircraft has a range of 2,450 km.


Saffron Sollitt wins 2011 Poohsticks

March 28, 2011

A.A. Milne

Piglet sidled up to Pooh from behind.  “Pooh!” he whispered.  “Yes, Piglet?”  “Nothing,” said Piglet, taking Pooh’s paw.  “I just wanted to be sure of you.”

BBC reports:

Little Wittenham Bridge with the lock keeper's house beyond: image Wikipedia

A nine-year-old girl from Oxfordshire has won the individual prize in the World Pooh Sticks Championships. Saffron Sollitt, from Wallingford, beat 500 other competitors from around the globe at Days Lock in Little Wittenham, near Abingdon, on the River Thames.

Team Kelly took the top spot in the group competition. Last year’s event was cancelled due to high water levels. The competition attracted entries from New Zealand, Germany and the Netherlands.

The championships started in 1983 when the lock keeper noticed walkers recreating Pooh’s pastime on the River Thames.

He thought it would be an excellent way of raising money for his favourite charity, the Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI). The event went from strength to strength until the lock keeper’s retirement when it was passed to the Rotary Clubs of Oxford Spires and Sinodun.

Money raised this year, expected to be excess of £1,500, will go to the RNLI, Little Wittenham Church and other charities supported by the Rotary club.

All about Poohsticks: image theenchanted100acrewoods

 

Poohsticks is a game first mentioned in The House at Pooh Corner, a Winnie-the-Pooh book by A. A. Milne. It is a simple game which may be played on any bridge over running water; each player drops a stick on the upstream side of a bridge and the one whose stick first appears on the downstream side is the winner. The annual World Poohsticks Championships have been held at Day’s Lock on the River Thames since 1984.