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The Great Sendai Quake: Two reactors at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant have had partial meltdowns

March 13, 2011

0900 CET: Japanese SDF forces assigned for rescue operations doubled to 100,000. The focal zone for the quake was 500km long and 200km wide and the quake lasted 5 minutes. The highly unusual quake actually consisted of 3 massive quakes. Miyagi Police Dept Chief said the death toll in the prefecture will exceed 10,000. Fukushima Reactors 1 & 3 will probably not start again because of the ingress of sea water. Hydrogen has built up in Reactor no. 3 probably when the core was uncovered and could cause an explosion  as in Reactor No.1 but there is no risk of consequent radiation leakage. Cooling water levels have now increased . 210,000 people are being evacuated from the 20km exclusion zone . The hospital where 19 patients were found to have been exposed to some radiation is within the exclusion zone. A 63 old year man was rescued 15km out to sea on Sunday afternoon.

INES Level 4: Accident with local consequences

Impact on People and the Environment
Minor release of radioactive material unlikely to result in implementation of planned countermeasures other than local food controls.
At least one death from radiation.
Impact on Radiological Barriers and Control
Fuel melt or damage to fuel ­resulting in more than 0.1% release of core inventory.
Release of significant quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high ­probability of significant public exposure.

Examples:

0800 CET: The 1999 event at the Tokai Uranium processing plant where 2 people died was also rated as a Level 4 incident. 19 patients at a hospital in Fukushima have been found to have been exposed to radiation and need to be decontaminated but are not in any danger.

Aftershocks of magnitude 7 or more have a probability of 70% and will continue for a week.  Magnitudes above 7 could generate tsunamis.

0730 CET: Chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano has just held a press conference.

Radiation measurements at Fukushima today rose from around 50 μSieverts to around 1557 μS for 1 hour between 1.44 and 2:42 pm and then came back to 184 μS. The spokesman stated on NHK that a deformation of part of the reactor cores has occurred but that we should be careful with terminology of a meltdown. Some part of some of the sheaths surrounding some of the fuel rods are thought to have melted. The level of 1557 μS should be compared with the 600 μS during a stomach X-Ray. There is no health risk he said.  Cooling and safety actions could still give small hydrogen accumulations and consequent explosions but these would not pose any danger or any radiation risks.

4 of the 6 reactors at Fukushima Dai-ichi may never operate again – partly because some of the measures being taken now for safety are irreversible.

Sunday 13th March: 0700 CET

The Quake magnitude has now been set at 9.0 and as more measurements come in it is likely that this probably will end up at 9.1 or 9.2. The number unaccounted for still remains very high.

TEPCO has declared a formal emergency around the Fukushima nuclear plants. Reactors No.1 and 3 at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant have probably had fuel rods exposed and with loss of cooling and have probably suffered core damage and melting – a partial if not a complete meltdown. However, so far it seems that the melted or partially melted cores have been confined within the containment. Temperatures are too high in 2 further reactors and radiation is still being released even if  at low but still unacceptable levels. Some deliberate venting of radioactive gases is still continuing.

The Japan Nuclear agency has (provisionally) rated the Fukushima nuclear plant incident at 4 on the 0 to 10 7 International Nuclear Event Scale developed by the IAEA. Three Mile Island was rated at 5 and Tjernobyl was rated at 7.

From CNN:

A meltdown may have occurred at at least one nuclear power reactor in Japan, the country’s chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, said Sunday. He also said that authorities are concerned over the possibility of another meltdown at a second reactor.

“We do believe that there is a possibility that meltdown has occurred. It is inside the reactor. We can’t see. However, we are assuming that a meltdown has occurred,” he said of the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility. “And with reactor No. 3, we are also assuming that the possibility of a meltdown as we carry out measures.” Edano’s comments confirm an earlier report from an official with Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, who said, “we see the possibility of a meltdown.”

A meltdown is a catastrophic failure of the reactor core, with a potential for widespread radiation release. However, Toshihiro Bannai, director of the agency’s international affairs office, expressed confidence that efforts to control the crisis would be successful.

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The Great Sendai Quake – Fukushima nuclear plants status is critical

March 12, 2011

The Great Sendai Quake and Tsunami – 2011. (Updates as available)

Minamisanriku.

Minimisanriku Photo AP

2100 CET: Dawn is breaking on Sunday in Japan and while the number of known fatalities including unidentified bodies is still at the 1700 level, the number unaccounted for is in excess of 10,000 with almost 9,000 of these just from the town of Minamisanriku. It seems that efforts to control pressure and to cool the reactor at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant are succeeding though the extent of the damage is still not known.

1800 CET: 3 of 90 people patients at a hospital 3 patients randomly tested from a group of 90 were were found to have radiation poisoning and would need de-contamination though the radiation exposures were said not to be life-threatening. The Japan Nuclear agency has rated the Fukushima nuclear plant incident at 4 on the 0 to 10 International Nuclear Event Scale developed by the IAEA. Three Mile Island was rated at 5 and Tjernobyl was rated at 7.

1530 CET: The Japanese Gov’t has said that reactors at Fukushima No.1 are “safe”. One tsunami related death is reported from northern California’s Del Norte County and one from Papua New Guinea.

1430 CET: Fukushima prefecture was hit half an hour ago by an aftershock of magnitude 6 on the Richter scale.  The blast at Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant is now said to have been caused by accumulated hydrogen combined with oxygen in the space between container and outer structure. There was no damage to the reactor containment. While known deaths including unidentified bodies is put at over 1700, the estimate of number of people unaccounted for has been increased to 10,000.

1400 CET: PM Naota Kan said that SDF forces to be used in the rescue operations would be increased to over 50,000.The deathtoll is expected to exceed 1,700. Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. are planning to suspend production at all their domestic plants on Monday due to difficulties in procuring auto parts. Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo Disney Sea will be closed for about 10 days for safety checks. Sea water is being used for cooling at Fukushima No. 1.

1330CET: The nuclear reactor was not damaged by the explosion at Fukushima Dai-ichi Reactor No.1 according to reports. While radiation levels have dropped, the leakage continues.

1300 CET: The explosion at Reactor No. 1 of Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant was not caused by the nuclear reaction but by “steam that was part of the cooling process,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. He said no radiative gases had been emitted by the explosion. Pressure levels and radiation levels have dropped. The evacuation zone around Fukushima Dai-ni (no. 2) plant is maintained at 10km.

MELTDOWN at Reactor No. 1 of Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant now acknowledged to have occurred.

1200 CET: More than 1.2million people are without water and over 4 million households are without electricity. Trains in the Tokyo region are beginning to run again. The earth’s axis has shifted by about 10cm.

Evacuation radius has been increased to 20 km around Fukushima No.1.  Clearly a very serious incident has taken place. No further details but it is acknowledged by TEPCO that a meltdown must have occurred. What could have caused the entire building walls to collapse leaving only the framework is also not clear. But whatever explosive force caused the walls to fall down  must have originated from within the primary or the secondary reactor containment. Some escape of radiative materials is therefore inevitable. The measured radiation level of 1051μSievert is at least 10,000 times greater than normal and at about the limit of what is considered safe.

1000CET: Further Tsunami warnings with expected 3m waves.

0940 CET: Radiation levels of 1050 μSieverts measured at Fukishima No. 1. No mention of whether it is increasing. This is going to be a lot worse than Three Mile Island but a Tjernobyl type accident is hopefully still unlikely.

0925 CET: LIVE PICTURES FROM NHK SEEM TO SHOW THAT THE ENTIRE OUTER WALL OF REACTOR NO. 1 BUILDING HAS DISAPPEARED WITH ONLY THE SKELETON OF CONSTRUCTION STEEL BEING VISIBLE.


0900 CET: BREAKING: TEPCO REPORTS EXPLOSION AT FUKUSHIMA NO.1 Plant. Some workers injured.

0830 CET: High pressure  in Fukushima No.1 plant, Reactor No.1 has been relieved by careful venting. The evacuation zone is a 10km radius around the plant but a BBC correspondent reports that police are stopping people from moving closer than some 60 km from the plant.

Fires are raging at over 650 locations. GPS indicates that some ground stations have shifted by between 1m and 2.4 m 4.o m. Medical teams are on their way to Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant to handle any consequences of any radiation leaks.

0800 CET: 1000 reported dead with 600+ known to be missing

0730 CET: Deathtoll now 900 and rising –

NHK is reporting that Caesium and Iodine has been detected around Fukushima Dai-ichi (No.1) nuclear power plant which may indicate that some fuel rods (or maybe just the metal containment around the rods) have melted. 1.7 m of the rods were exposed. Mobile generators have been brought to the plant and cooling water is being pumped in but levels are still dropping indicating a leak somewhere. All 13 back up diesel generators for the emergency cooling system failed. Evacuation area has been increased to 10km around the plant. Fukushima No.1  has 6 reactors with a total capacity of  10,964 MW.

At Fukushima No. 2 about 10km south of Fukushima No1. pressure is rising in the 4 reactors making up the plant. Some venting of radioactive gases has taken place and more may be required. Residents within a 10km radius have been told to stay indoors. Prevailing winds are currently out to sea. Fukushima Dai-ni has a capacity of 4,400 MW.

Both Fukushima plants are owned and operated by TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co.).

Some of TEPCO’s thermal, hydro and nuclear plants have been shutdown and blackouts may be required in parts of Tokyo.


Fukushima No. 1:

Diesel generators installed to provide backup power for the cooling systems for units 1–3 were damaged by the tsunami; they started up correctly but then stopped abruptly about 1 hour later. Because cooling is needed to remove residual reactor heat, in Japan a nuclear emergency is declared upon cooling problems and therefore a nuclear emergency was declared—for the first time—when the diesel engines failed. Batteries, which last about eight hours, were being used to power the reactor controls and valves during the electrical outage.Japanese ground forces were said to be trucking generators and batteries to the site.

An evacuation order was issued to people living within 3 kilometres (1.9 mi) of the plant, affecting approximately 5800 residents living near the power plant. People living less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from the power plant were advised to stay indoors. Later the evacuation was expanded to a 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) radius.

Past midnight local time, it was reported that The Tokyo Electric Power Company was considering venting hot gas from the reactor vessel number 1 into the atmosphere, which could result in the release of radiation. The Tokyo Electric Company reported that radiation levels were rising in the turbine building for reactor 1. At 2:00 JST, the pressure inside the reactor was reported to be 600kPa (6 bar or 87 psi), 200 kPa (2 bar or 29 psi) higher than under normal conditions. At 5:30 JST the pressure inside Reactor 1 was reported to be 2.1 times the “design capacity.” At 6:10 JST, the IAEA reported that unit 2 was also experiencing cooling problems.

To reduce mounting pressure potentially radioactive steam has been released from the primary circuit, into the secondary containment. On March 12, 2011 at 6:40 JST, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano stated that the amount of potential radiation would be small and that the prevailing winds are blowing out to sea. Measured radiation levels inside the plant control room were reported to be 1000 times greater than normal. Radiation levels measured at a monitoring post near the plant’s main gate were reported to be more than eight times above normal. In a press release at 7 AM (local) March 12, TEPCO stated “Measurement of radioactive material (Iodine, etc.) by monitoring car indicates increasing value compared to normal level. One of the monitoring posts is also indicating higher than normal level.”

The Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, visited the plant for a briefing 12 March 2011.

Fukushima No.2

After the March 11, 2011, earthquake, Nuclear Engineering International reported that all four units were automatically shut down. Tokyo Electric on March 12 reported that the cooling system for three reactors (nrs 1, 2 and 4) at the plant had topped 100 degrees between 5:30 and 6:10 JST, less than one hour after the start of additional cooling with condensate water,and that the “pressure suppression function was lost”. According to a Reuters report, officials are “prepar[ing] for release of pressure” from the plant. An evacuation order was issued to people living within 3 kilometres (1.9 mi) of the plant, which might be expanded to 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from the power plant.

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The Great Sendai quake of 2011 is part of the Sun’s Dance

March 11, 2011

I was woken up in Tokyo in 1995 when the Great Hanshin Earthquake hit Kobe (having left Kobe 6 hours earlier on the last Shinkansen to Tokyo the night before) where the epicentre was just off Awaji Island but there was no tsunami then. The destruction was massive and Kobe burned and over 6,000 people perished.

All day today I have been watching the riveting pictures of the tsunami hitting the Sendai coast. The sheer power of the water sweeping irresistibly across the landscape picking up houses, ships, buses and cars like little cardboard models was terrible and awe-inspiring. The memories of 1995 came flooding back and it once again reminded me of the puny impact mankind has in the face of such forces.

And all the energy that is released by these great movements of the continents on Earth have their origin in the energy stored at the time of Earth’s creation and the energy it has received from the Sun since then. And all the energy of all these earthquakes and volcanoes and tsunamis and cyclones are as nothing to the energy released continuously by the Sun. To the Earth this Great Sendai quake of 2011 is just a very small adjustment of stresses and strains and is of little significance. The Great Dance orchestrated and choreographed by the  Sun will go on and the continents will keep drifting and moving under each other  and volcanoes will keep erupting. And our Science will continue to try and understand and predict when catastrophic events will occur. But we will have to tame the Sun if we are ever to be able to control these events.

The death toll in Sendai is rising and and as morning comes in a few hours to Japan the full extent of the destruction will begin to be revealed. Whole villages could well have been wiped out, entire trains have been carried away by the force of the waters and some ships are missing.  Fires are breaking out and the Fukushima nuclear plant was swamped.

Science and technology are our best defence against loss of life and loss of property by “natural” disasters. The preparedness of Japan is a tribute to this when comparing today’s tsunami with that after the Aceh quake of 2004. Science and technology will help us to cope with the consequences of these events and maybe – some day – will help us predict some of them. But they will not prevent such disasters.

The Sun is going through an unusual – but not unprecedented – minimum. There is no proof and there is no evidence of any causal relationship but there are correlations between increased earthquake and volcanic activity with solar minima and solar proton events. We have a further 2 or 3 years of increased earthquake and volcanic activity if this correlation holds true.

It seems not only plausible but also fitting that such great and terrible events can only be a part of the Great Dance of the Sun.

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Gaddafi gains ground while protests spread to Saudi Arabia

March 11, 2011
Location of Benghazi within Libya.

Image via Wikipedia

The Gaddafi end-game gets murkier as he uses air power, regular troops and heavy artillery to retake towns controlled by the demonstrators. Zawaiyah and Ras Lanuf have been ruthlessly bombarded into submission. In the process many (at least 1000) Libyans have been killed by other Libyans. In the meantime NATO, the European Union, and the UN are dithering about the introduction of a no-fly zone across Libyan air space. It is conceivable that with no other forces coming into play Gaddafi could even try to retake Benghazi. In any event without US support such a no-fly zone would be difficult to implement. Any UN Security Council resolutions will be watered down since Russia and China have a fundamental aversion to the support of any group challenging authoritarian rule.

Gulf Arab states said the Gaddafi regime was illegitimate, and urged contact to be made with the rebels while President Barack Obama’s top intelligence adviser James Clapper predicted government forces would defeat the rebels.

Gaddafi has to go but the end-game for him and his family could be a long drawn-out affair. While France has recognised the rebel National Libyan Council as the legitimate government, other countries concerned that may well have to deal with Gaddafi for some time yet have not had the courage to follow suit. Berlusconi will see to it that any European consensus will be hard to come by.

But these hot and humid winds of change in North Africa and the Middle East represent a fundamental shift of political climate and are unlikely to be stopped. What is commonly known as the Sirocco is called Chom (hot) or arifi (thirsty) in North Africa and Simoom in Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and the desert of Arabia. In Libya it is called the Ghibli, in Egypt it is the Khamsin  and it is the Sharavin in Israel.

File:Persian Gulf Arab States english.PNG

map via Wikipedia

And the winds are now blowing towards the House of Saud. Yesterday (Thursday)

Saudi security forces fired on scores of protesters in the city of Qatif, according to two witnesses and an activist.

The protests took place one day ahead of a planned “Day of Rage” in the Middle Eastern country.

Defying a Saudi government ban on all kinds of public demonstrations, more than 100 people in the predominantly Shiite city in eastern Saudi Arabia urged authorities to release Shiite prisoners, the witnesses and activist said.

At some point, the witnesses said Saudi security forces shot to disperse the crowd. It was unknown if the forces fired rubber bullets or live ammunition. Those injured were taken to Qatif Central Hospital for treatment, the activist and witnesses said.

The Jerusalem Post writes:

The time after Friday prayers has proved to be crucial in popular uprisings that have brought down Tunisian and Egyptian rulers who once seemed invulnerable.

Gulf leaders are struggling to hold back an Internet-era generation of Arabs who appear less inclined to accept arguments appealing to religion and tradition to explain why ordinary citizens should be shut out of decision-making.

Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Gulf, is home to Islam’s holiest sites – and is a long-time US ally that has ensured oil supplies for the West. More than 32,000 people have backed a Facebook call to hold two demonstrations in the country, the first of them Friday.

Riyadh has tried to counter the call with promises of money and other measures – including a pro-government Facebook page “against the revolution” with 23,000 supporters.

The protest movements hit populous Yemen a month ago, and spread to the Gulf states, where dynasties secured their rule in colonial times.

Bahrain – an island state, whose rulers look to Riyadh for support – has been the most vulnerable so far. This week, hardline Shi’ite groups formed an alliance to ditch the monarchy and turn Bahrain into a republic.

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Posted in Behaviour, Libya, Middle East, North Africa, Politics | 2 Comments »

France takes the lead and recognises Libyan rebels while Gaddafi’s envoys head for Brussels

March 10, 2011

The new French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe is now moving fast to try and rectify a string of blunders and to try and restore some cohesion to French foreign policy. After the lightweight flitting about of Michelle Alliot-Marie and her Tunisian holidays, the weight of the former French Prime Minister is beginning to be felt. Though the news was reported by Sarkozy’s office I suspect that Alain Juppé has multiple objectives with this move. And one of them is to show that French Foreign policy can be taken seriously. His biggest task will be to tame Sarkozy’s arrogance and  impetuousness.

Alain Juppé, former French Prime Minister

Alain Juppé: Image via Wikipedia

BBC reports:

France has become the first country to recognise the Libyan rebel leadership, the National Libyan Council (NLC), as the country’s legitimate government. The office of French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Paris regarded the NLC as Libya’s “legitimate representative”. …

….

Mustafa Gheriani, a spokesman for the rebels in their eastern stronghold of Benghazi, said the French move was “breaking the ice”, adding that he expected other EU members to follow suit.

However Italy and Spain have said they will not take a similar step until European Union members have reached a common position on the issue.

EU foreign ministers will also hold talks in Brussels, ahead of a European Council summit on Friday.

But France 24 reports that Gaddafi’s envoys are also on their way to Brussels for some lobbying activity:

…. The EU’s 27 foreign ministers started the ball rolling mid-morning, preparing a full summit of leaders the next day.

Britain and France are lobbying for United Nations Security Council support for a no-fly zone. Anxious Washington wants any military action conducted under the banner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, with Arab regional backing seen as essential.

“Some think this could protect civilians from aerial bombardment, others fear risks in terms of how it would play with Arab public opinion,” said a top EU official who asked not to be named.

On the headline initiative of enforcing a no-fly zone over a country vaster than restricted air exclusion areas over Iraq or the Balkans in past conflicts, “countries are divided” over operational input and scope, added the source.

The meetings follow a flurry of diplomatic activity that Thursday saw France extend official recognition to the rebel Libyan national council whose representative had earlier lobbied the European parliament. France and Germany urged European partners to engage in dialogue with the rebels.

On Wednesday Kadhafi sent his own envoys to Europe and they were reportedly heading for Brussels. Asked to confirm, an EU official said “we don’t know for certain”.


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European Climate Action: Don’t know what it will cost, don’t know what it will achieve

March 10, 2011

They don’t know why and what it will cost and they don’t know what it will achieve but, The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a roadmap for building a low-carbon economy by 2050, proposing an 80 percent to 95 percent cut of greenhouse gas emissions from the 1990 levels.

“We need to start the transition towards a competitive low-carbon economy now. The longer we wait, the higher the cost will be,” Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, said when presenting the roadmap to European Union (EU) lawmakers in Strasbourg, France.

The roadmap described the cost-effective pathway to reach the EU’s objective of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent to 95 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050. It recommended Europe should achieve it largely through domestic measures since by mid-century international credits to offset emissions will be less widely available than today.

In the meantime Jill Duggan from the European Commission’s Directorate General of Climate Action and the EC’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change is in Australia to tell them how good Europe’s emission trading system is and why they should do something similar.  In a radio interview she demonstrated her ignorance.

Jill Duggan

Andrew Bolt

Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 01:38pmDuggan’s utter inability to answer is a scandal – an indictment of global warming politics today. (Listen here):

AB:  Can I just ask; your target is to cut Europe’s emissions by 20% by 2020?

JD:  Yes.

AB:  Can you tell me how much – to the nearest billions – is that going to cost Europe do you think?

JD:  No, I can’t tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it’s cheaper to start earlier rather than later, so  it’s cheaper to do it now rather than put off action.

AB:  Right.  You wouldn’t quarrel with Professor Richard Tol – who’s not a climate sceptic – but is professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin?  He values it at about $250 billion.  You wouldn’t quarrel with that?

JD:  I probably would actually.  I mean, I don’t know.  It’s very, very difficult to quantify.  You get different changes, don’t you?  And one of the things that’s happening in Europe now is that many governments – such as the UK government and the German government – would like the targets to be tougher because they see it as a real stimulus to the economy.

AB:  Right.  Well you don’t know but you think it isn’t $250 billion.

JD:  I think you could get lots of different academics coming up with lots of different figures.

AB:  That’s right.  You don’t know but that’s the figure that I’ve got in front of me.  For that investment.  Or for whatever the investment is.  What’s your estimation of how much – because the object ultimately of course is to lower the world’s temperatures – what sort of temperature reduction do you imagine from that kind of investment?

JD:  Well, what we do know is that to have an evens chance of keeping temperature increases globally to 2°C – so that’s increases – you’ve got to reduce emissions globally by 50% by 2050.

AB:  Yes, I accept that, but from the $250 billion – or whatever you think the figure is – what do you think Europe can achieve with this 20% reduction in terms of cutting the world’s temperature?  Because that’s, in fact, what’s necessary.  What do you think the temperature reduction will be?

JD:  Well, obviously, Europe accounts for 14% of global emissions.  It’s 500 or 550 million people.  On its own it cannot do that.  That is absolutely clear.

AB:  Have you got a figure in your mind?  You don’t know the cost.  Do you know the result?

JD:  I don’t have a cost figure in my mind. Nor, one thing I do know, obviously, is that Europe acting alone will not solve this problem alone.

AB:  So if I put a figure to you – I find it odd that you don’t know the cost and you don’t know the outcome – would you quarrel with this assessment:  that by 2100 – if you go your way and if you’re successful – the world’s temperatures will fall by 0.05°C?  Would you agree with that?

JD:  Sorry, can you just pass that by me again?  You’re saying that if Europe acts alone?

AB:  If just Europe alone – for this massive investment – will lower the world’s temperature with this 20% target (if it sustains that until the end of this century) by 0.05°C.  Would you quarrel with that?

JD:  Well, I think the climate science would not be that precise.  Would it?

AB:  Ah, no, actually it is, Jill.  You see this is what I’m curious about;  that you’re in charge of a massive program to re-jig an economy.  You don’t know what it costs.  And you don’t know what it’ll achieve.

JD:  Well, I think you can look at lots of modelling which will come up with lots of different costs.

AB:  Well what’s your modelling?  That’s the one that everyone’s quoting.  What’s your modelling?

JD:  Well, ah, ah. Let me talk about what we have done in Europe and what we have seen as the benefits.  In Europe, in Germany you could look at, there’s over a million new jobs that have been created by tackling climate change, by putting in place climate policies.  In the UK there’s many hundreds of thousand of jobs.

Full article and transcript is here.

The demonisation of carbon dioxide will probably continue for another 5 to 10 years until it becomes apparent that we are actually in a cooling period and therefore that man-made carbon dioxide is irrelevant and immaterial.

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Publicity fail! Nazi newspapers distributed at World Biathlon Championship in Siberia

March 9, 2011

Advertisers and “designers” can sometimes have interesting ideas but incompetent execution can get the better of them. Nostalgia is all very well but distributing wartime Nazi literature in Siberia when the former Soviet Union lost some 24 million lives during WW2 is not likely to go down very well. But I absolve the Siberian organisers of any malicious intent – they are just innocently incompetent with ideas beyond their intelligence.

From The Local.de

Guests attending the opening of the 2011 World Biathlon Championships in Siberia got a surprise when they found Nazi propaganda among the hors d’oeuvres at the reception.

photo: DPA

photo dpa

Organizers thought they had a cute idea: liven up an event for the media by putting out a selection of old newspapers. Little did they know that among them were two pages from notorious Third Reich publications.

One was a reproduction from Der Angriff, or The Attack, a venomous Nazi Party journal published by propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels. The page was headlined “Reich Chancellor Hitler!”

The other, from a 1944 edition of the Deutsche Allgemeine Zeitung, told readers “The invasion has begun.”

Once the gaffe was discovered, a slew of apologies came from the organizers at the Ugra-Classic Theatre Centre in the Siberian town of Khanty-Mansiysk, which has hosted the biathlon event for the past five years.

“There are no political reasons behind this,” insisted centre director Irina Tashenko, who profusely apologized in a letter to the biathlon world governing body, IBU.

Related: Pakistan Navy photoshop fail

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Gaddafi’s air force is his trump card and needs to be stopped

March 9, 2011
Map showing key locations

map from bbc

It seems that the town of  Zawaya has been attacked by air and by heavy artillery and by tanks and has been virtually wiped out.

The death toll is now thought to be greater than 1000 and it is Gaddafi’s air force (which is dominated by his clan) which is his trump card. Not only are they attacking directly, but they are also providing the air cover for his land forces to move against the opposition. Heavy fighting is reported around Ras Lanuf.

The sooner a no-fly zone can be established over Libya the better.

Yemen News Agency reports:

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) Tuesday supported the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya but rejected military intervention in the North African country, according to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA).

OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, at a special meeting with the permanent representatives here, voiced backing to imposing a no-fly zone over Libya which has been experiencing clashes between forces of Muammar Gadhafi and rebels, which killed and injured hundreds of people.

“We are joining voices demanding the imposition of a no-fly zone on Libya, he said, and called on the UN Security Council (UNSC) to live up to its responsibilities in that respect.

But Ihsanoglu refused the military option to solving the crisis in Libya.
He called on the Libyan authorities to allow entry of humanitarian aid. The unrest in Libya forced tens of thousands of people from different nationalities to flee the country.

France and the UK, with the US support, had circulated elements of a draft resolution to the other permanent members of the UNSC to impose a no-fly zone.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had voiced backing to the no-fly zone in a meeting of foreign ministers yesterday.

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Penn State whitewash of Michael Mann exposed

March 9, 2011

Two things which were were always pretty clear have now been proven.

  1. Michael Mann of the Hockey Stick Illusion and the cherry picking of data did indeed ask his friends and colleagues to delete incriminating emails, and
  2. The so-called Penn State inquiry into Mann and his actions cherry picked the evidence to give a pre-determined result.

A federal government inspector general has revealed prima facie proof that the so-called independent inquiries widely if implausibly described as clearing the ClimateGate principals of wrongdoing were, in fact, whitewashes. This has been confirmed to Senate offices. It will not be released to the public for some time because the investigation is ongoing.

The document, an interview transcript, will put an end to the foolish talk of anything resembling a ClimateGate “inquiry” having taken place. It will also invite a real inquiry into the affair. Expect fireworks, as the one such effort, by Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, is being fought hysterically by Big Science and Big Academia.

Critically, it also begs questions of Penn State University, which conducted one of the three supposed inquiries into ClimateGate. The key point is that the Penn State investigators never interviewed a principal who was able to confirm or deny a key charge against “Hockey Stick” lead author of “Hide the Decline” infamy Michael Mann. This individual has now been interviewed, and what he told federal investigators has indicted Mann and Penn State. The inspector general’s report specifically reveals Penn State’s wagon-circlers to have been at best comically negligent/inept in allowing Mann to not answer the damning charge they were tasked with examining: did he delete or ask others to delete records? At worst, they were complicit in the cover-up.

Simply by interviewing Mann’s colleague Eugene Wahl, PSU would have exposed Mann’s “answer” for what it was (and wasn’t). Such an interview was obviously necessary for any inquiry. Penn State chose not to conduct it, for its own reasons. A federal inspector general has now conducted it. And the result is damning of both Mann and the parties that chose not to interview Wahl.

As background, Phil Jones in the United Kingdom asked Mann, now at Penn State, by email to delete records being sought under the UK’s Freedom of Information Act, and to get a colleague to do so as well:

Mike:
Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment — minor family crisis.

Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address.

We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.

“Gene” is Eugene Wahl, who now works for the federal government.

Mann’s terse reply included in pertinent part:

I’ll contact Gene about this ASAP

Now, from Penn State’s supposed inquiry and exoneration of Michael Mann:

Allegation 2: Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions with the intent to delete, conceal or otherwise destroy emails, information and/or data, related to AR4, as suggested by Phil Jones?

Finding 2. After careful consideration of all the evidence and relevant materials, the inquiry committee finding is that there exists no credible evidence that Dr. Mann had ever engaged in, or participated in, directly or indirectly, any actions with intent to delete, conceal or otherwise destroy emails, information and/or data related to AR4, as suggested by Dr. Phil Jones. Dr. Mann has stated that he did not delete emails in response to Dr. Jones’ request. Further, Dr. Mann produced upon request a full archive of his emails in and around the time of the preparation of AR4. The archive contained e-mails related to AR4.

If the above excerpt accurately reflects Mann’s testimony, both Mann’s “answer” and his peers’ acceptance of it ought to raise red flags. Penn State asked Mann and only Mann if he destroyed records or was indirectly involved in destroying records. Mann said only that he did not destroy records. And that did it. Even though Phil Jones asked Mann to instruct Wahl to do so as well.

Related:

To serve Mann

Wahl Transcript Excerpt


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Posted in Alarmism, Scientific Fraud | 1 Comment »

Pakistan Navy photoshop fail

March 9, 2011

Advertising agencies are supposedly very creative but much of their output is little more than plagiarism.

The Indian and Pakistani Armed Forces share a common past before 1947 but are the most intense rivals and virtually paranoid about each other. But it seems that the Pakistani Navy (or their advertising agency Orient Advertising) is a little short of stock photographs and imagination. Photo-shopping provides a cheap alternative.

Reminiscent of the Chinese publicity film about their new generation fighter aircraft which had spliced in images from “Top Gun”!

In an embarrassing goof-up, an advertisement issued by the Pakistan navy on Tuesday for a multinational exercise prominently featured images of Indian Navy warships even though India is not among the participating countries.

The full-page advertisement for the Aman-11 exercise in the Arabian Sea, which appeared in The Nation and Nawa-e-Waqt newspapers, featured photographs of Indian Navy’s Delhi, Godavari and Talwar-class warships. The insert also featured images of US warships under the slogan: “Together for peace” .

Warships, aircraft, Special Forces and representatives from 39 countries are participating in the exercises for fostering peace in the region and enhancing cooperation to counter maritime threats like piracy.

Within hours of the advertisement being posted on websites of newspapers, blogger Shahid Saeed posted the original image of American and Indian warships from the Malabar 2010 exercise that was used in the advertisement . There was no official word from the Pakistan Navy.

The Advertisement (with 2 ships removed, one helicopter removed and one ship added)

Photoshopped advertisement in The Nation

The original picture from the Indo-US Naval Exercise, Malabar 2010:

Indo-US Naval Exercise Malabar 2010

Shahid Saeed has another example of an incompetently photo-shopped image of UN envoy Ellen Margrethe Løj apparently pinning UN Medal to a Pakistan Army Doctor during a Special Award Ceremony held for Pakistani UN Peace Keeping Mission serving at Minrovia, Liberia. (23-2-2011), but which is remarkably careless with the bodies and limbs of people in the background.

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Posted in Behaviour, Defense, India, Media, Pakistan | 1 Comment »

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