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India Mars Orbiter Mission Update – 14th November and ISRO is silent

November 14, 2013

In spite of a great deal of ballyhoo about ISRO’s heightened and improved publicity, their website is remarkably short of information or updates. There has been nothing new since they reported that the earth orbit correction had succeeded and that was 48 hours ago. They have not even put out a revised mission plan. No doubt they have to be a typical Indian Government bureaucratic organisation but they have much to learn about public relations. They are still stuck in the paradigm of “No news is good news” and haven’t quite realised that “No news, when news is expected, is bad news”.

I would have thought that they could at least have put out a daily bulletin. The long silence from ISRO suggests that something may be amiss. (The FB page contains virtually no forward looking information – except the pre-mission plans and photographs). 

Indian science journalists apparently just wait for official press releases and have no updates and little background to offer. Their lack of pro-active coverage and apparent lack of interest leaves much to be desired.

The next scheduled burn is supposed to be on 18th November (according to the original mission plan) to raise the orbit (apogee) to about 200,000km. That would then be sufficient for the injection into a Trans-Mars trajectory with the scheduled sixth burn (actually seventh including the corrective burn 2 days ago). But the mission plan must have been revised. Yet ISRO has not released any information. I can understand their fear of putting out a plan and not being able to keep to it but they will one day realise that being up-front with the plan and its critical parts for an R & D program is by far the best way of keeping on top of communications. And in keeping messages on track.

In the meantime the ToI reports that:

After having successfully tackled a momentary glitch in Mangalyaan’s orbital manoeuvres on Monday, Isro scientists have postponed a crucial exercise. The exercise is to test the five instruments aboard the Mangalyaan before the orbiter embarks on its long journey to Mars in early December. The instruments were to be activated on Monday this week for a brief while to ensure that they work fine. But this procedure will now be carried out next week.

I have been trying to follow the mission via the live satellite tracking websites (satview.org and n2yo.com) but I am a little dubious as to how “live” they actually are. I noted that after the corrective burn 48 hours ago, both sites took almost 24 hours before they showed any change to the orbit.

Right now satview is showing a position over Africa at an altitude over 100,000 km but this data needs to be taken with a pinch or two of salt.

Live track Mars Orbiter satview.org

Live track Mars Orbiter satview.org

n2yo.com also shows the same position and gives the following data. Note that both sites give the same location and now also give much the same altitude. They do not match on “speed”. Satview gives a speed of about 4149km/h which is about 1.15km/s whereas n2yo gives a “speed” of 6.9 km/s. I am not quite sure what “speed” is being reported.

MARS ORBITER MISSION

LOCAL TIME:
12:13:56
UTC:
11:13:56
LATITUDE:
19.09
LONGITUDE:
-0.1
ALTITUDE [km]:
103132.47
ALTITUDE [mi]:
64083.55
SPEED [km/s]:
6.91
SPEED [mi/s]:
4.29
AZIMUTH:
204
SSW
ELEVATION:
+48.9
RA:
14h 45m 32s
DEC:
17° 1′ 12”
The satellite is in day light
PERIOD:  1434m

 

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A Gaggle of souls …..

November 14, 2013

An Angel came visiting last night.

He (I am sure it was a “he”) was clad in fiery red, deeply tanned and with long flowing hair. He was enormous and cut a very impressive figure, floating there at the foot of my bed. He seemed to be glowing all over but there was no specific halo around his head that I could see. I was more preoccupied with his expression which was rather supercilious and contemptuous – at having to waste his time on me, I suppose.

But I got over my astonishment faster than he got over his disgust. “Well,” I said, ” What can I do for you? I don’t make donations when I am in bed. And very rarely even when I am not. Cheap party tricks are not my thing and if you are meant to be ‘Christmas Past’, you are 6 weeks too early”.

His contempt was tinged with irritation. “Nay!”, he exclaimed in stern and ominous tones, “Accept thy Fate. I am come for thy soul”! His booming voice reverberated around my skull.

But I was not to be intimidated in my own bed and in no mood for any unearned reverence. Besides my head was throbbing and I was not pleased. “Aha,“ said I, “Then I do have a soul. I’ve never met him you see. Have you?”

He must have been expecting a little more shock and awe and a little less lip. “I am come for thy Immortal soul,” he repeated. “To mark it as Mine and to give thee Warning. As thou soweth, so shall thou reap!“

“You mean as I sow, so shall my soul reap,” I corrected him. “I suppose my transition must be due. You must be my travel guide. Do you have a brochure regarding my options? Or a web-site? Is there a basic package or can I acquire extras? Do I need to get dressed? I shouldn’t need my wallet, surely?”

He seemed just a little taken aback. Perhaps he was more senior than just a simple travel guide. “Dispute not!” he growled. “Thy time is not yet come. I am come to mark down thine soul as belonging to my Gaggle” he declaimed. You will understand that this was a transcendental conversation without conventional words. So my interpretation of “gaggle” could be slightly off. He could have meant “team” or “army” or “tribe”, but I think “gang” best captures the intention. Perhaps he meant “gaggle”. Was gaggle the collective noun for souls? I wondered. Yes, that sounded about right.

  • A Gaggle of souls.
  • A Flight of Angels.
  • A Congregation of Saints.
  • A Pantheon of Gods.

I wondered if I had the hierarchy correctly.

My Angel was not to be deterred. “Thy time will surely come,” he continued in his best Richard Burton-“Under Milk Wood”-like tone, “and when it comes thine soul is Mine. I have impressed my Mark upon thy soul and all shall know it. My every wish is thy command.”

I hadn’t felt a thing but my head was still throbbing. Still, I was remarkably composed. The news was portentous but was nothing really new. I had been brought up on these stories of souls and Angels and Saints during my school-days with the Jesuits. In fact, having my own personal Angel to call on me was rather gratifying and a status symbol, I thought. His Gaggle or any other Gaggle of souls wouldn’t much matter I reasoned. Just the fact that my visitor was an Angel with no visible forked tail or pointy Spock-like ears also portended well. I was, it seemed. destined to be with the good guys. What was critical though was what connection there was between me and my soul. And how did his Gaggle differ from other Gaggles? Was there a competition between Gaggles?  And how would a win be decided?

“Tell me more,“ I said in my best psychiatrist manner. “Where is my soul now? What do souls do? What do you want my soul to do? How many souls in a gaggle? And how many Gaggles are there? And how do you compete with the other Gaggles? How many innings? What are the rewards? Or the penalties? “ My questions poured out.

My Angel looked down at me from his great height with some disdain. “Souls are Immortal,” he intoned. “They have existed since the beginning of Time and always will. Thine will be under My command and at my Whim – when thy time comes. Souls don’t do anything. They are not required to do anything. They are above doing Anything. They just are. And they are not constrained by Space. They can Flit and Fly anywhere or everywhere – wherever they are. And they are Completely Immortal. Deathless. For Eternity. Till the Cows come home. Till the Fat lady sings. Till the end of Time.” He paused. He seemed unsure if he had capitalised all the appropriate words and whether he had got his point across. “My souls in My Gaggle are in a state of Eternal Grace and Perpetual Bliss – except when they are not. They are at one with the Cosmos. Forever.” He hesitated and then continued in a rush, “Or till they are returned to inhabit another  body corporeal and the Eternal Bicycle begins again, forever and forever till the end of Time.  Thy soul is tethered to your body and from thence shall it be freed – when thy time comes.”

I thought his command of language and meaning and the resultant communication were rather poor. “Let’s get this straight,” I said. “So my soul is separate from and a prisoner of my body and is not free?” I put on my skeptic face. “Moreover my body does not seem to be in communication with my soul. So why then should I care what happens to my captive, separate, immortal soul when I am gone and it has been set free, only to be made captive again?” I asked in my best Clarence Darrow imitation.

I was beginning to doubt if my Angel  really was an Angel.  He wasn’t very quick. He was getting confused and tried to drown me out with sound. “For as thou poor mortal livest shall thy immortal soul be bound into grace or damnation or bliss or misery, for all eternity or until it shall be bound again to a body corporeal of my choosing”, he thundered.

I saw my opening. “Aah! I understand. My life so far has led to my poor, captive soul being designated to be in your particular gaggle or gang or whatever. And to whatever level of grace and bliss that entails. Until you decide that my soul will be trapped in yet another body. And then it will no longer be my soul but someone else’s?  So my temporary, captive, immortal soul is just in transition within my poor mortal body. Right?” 

He was not amused. “Thou art being obtuse,” he tried to thunder but there was a shade of whinging creeping in now. “The manner of thine life shall decide whether thy soul shall suffer or be in bliss. Thy behaviour in this life shall decide which Angel thy soul shall serve and what the prospects of thine soul shall be. Thou and thine soul are One. Well, at least until thou perishes and thy soul then becomes One with someone else. As thou dost shall thine soul be rewarded – for all Eternity; or until it is held captive by another body corporeal.“

Now, this was getting to be too much. My soul was obviously not even exclusively my own. Just borrowed for a while. Actually for a very little while. And if my own Angel was reduced to reincarnation mumbo-jumbo then I was in for a bad time in his Gaggle. He would probably threaten next that my soul was destined to be bound to a cockroach. But how would that threaten me? “And with population increasing as it now is, it  shouldn’t be too long before my soul gets trapped in another body,” I said. 

I decided to wax poetic as well. “Why then should I care about this temporary, captive, unknown soul of mine? And of what significance your so-called immortality?” quoth I. “If there cometh an end to Time – and thus to Eternity – and my Soul ceaseth to exist, then how canneth it be immortal? Doth not my spirit – as I define it – already exist, and hath it not existed forever and from before the beginning of Time and shall it not continue forever and forever and beyond the end of Time? The puny soul thou seekest and which is merely eternal, cannot be my mighty spirit which stretches beyond the bounds of time.” I liked the sound of being beyond the bounds of time.

He seemed somewhat confused now so I continued in my best Gandalf imitation and inserted capitals wherever I could. “For such, from Before and Beyond Time, is the Concept and Substance of my Immortality. Your immortality, Angel, is merely eternal and bound by Time and decidedly inferior. Besides, being in eternal grace and perpetual bliss sounds rather boring. No big deal! And anyway my Time is not yet come. And maybe when it comes I will get a  different Angel and join a different Gaggle.” I felt rather pleased with myself. 

It was obvious that “grace” and “bliss” were the critical parameters for souls to experience and aspire to, with “eternal damnation” and “misery” being the other ends of those scales. What could the KPI’s be, I wondered, for grace and bliss? “What have I to do with my soul?”  I asked reasonably. “Or its level of grace or misery when my time has gone? And what is bliss for me may be misery for my soul. Or the other way around. And since my Time is not yet come this  mortal body shall decide and my soul will just have to lump it? You really shouldn’t talk to me,” I said. “Go talk to my soul.”

The Angel was now fuming. He was as red as his fiery cloak – did I mention that he wore a cloak. “How dare thee bandy words with thy Angel?” he whined, petulantly. “Know thee not of thy immortal peril? Instead of grace and bliss thy soul mayest be condemned to Eternal Damnation and Desperate Misery. There are no other Angels for thee but I.. I mean me .. I mean Us”.” He was beginning to bluster now. “Thou hast no choice but to be Ours. And to obey Our every command, to carry out whatever task We may set thee and to return to whatever corporal body We may designate. When thy time has come”.

Even with his capitals and the Royal plural, I was unimpressed. It seemed the oneness of my temporal body and my supposedly immortal soul was fundamentally suspect. Moreover even the immortality of souls seemed somewhat limited. Apparently, it only lasted as long as Time did. What happened before the Big Bang or would when Time ceased to exist was clearly beyond the Angel’s comprehension. It also seemed that the world of souls had many inherent injustices. They had not even established any fundamental Rights of Souls. Clearly Angels ranked higher than souls and could order them about. But what were the sanctions if a soul disobeyed? What recourse would a poor soul have? Was there a higher authority he could turn to, a Cosmic Court of Soul Rights? How did a soul get promoted to be an Angel? Were there different grades of Angels? How many Angels reported to a Saint? How did one get to be a Saint – apart from first being Pope? Were there no other tasks for ambitious souls – apart from grace and bliss?  Could souls be created and destroyed? Or was their number fixed? How did souls and bodies get matched? Did the bodies of animals and birds and insects – a la Buddhism – count? What was the universal all-souls unemployment rate?

The questions were multiplying. It was time to end this pointless dalliance with an Angel who was clearly, at best, only a beginner and, at worst, a fraud. . “Well I think you are just a fraud or a figment of my imagination,” I said, “and I am going to ignore you. In the worst case I demand and shall get a more experienced, more competent Angel, with a proper Gaggle. Whenever my time comes”.

I must have said just the right thing. There was a long “poof” as if of escaping air and the Angel seemed to deflate and diminish in size. His glow was fading. He got smaller and smaller and I had to sit up to see him disappearing into the floor at the foot of my bed.

“Clap your hands if you believe in Angels” he whimpered as he imploded into nothingness – and I woke up.

It must have been that fifth whiskey. 

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Afghan opium harvest reaches record high and Western troops prepare to withdraw – after a job well done?

November 13, 2013

This Afghan war started on 7th October 2001. Ostensibly the US, NATO and Western allies invaded to dismantle the Al Qaida infrastructure, remove the Taliban from power and to eradicate their support base by winning hearts and minds.

Twelve years on, about 10,000 Afghan security forces and about 5,000 allied forces (including contractors) have been killed. The numbers of Taliban and other Islamic fighters killed is believed to be many more than the 15,000 allied losses – perhaps as many as 30,000. Around 18,000 civilians have also lost their lives. The Taliban are still around and apparently gaining strength. I am not sure whether the intention was to destroy the drug trade or whether it was secretly to secure drug supplies. In any event the opium harvest has never been as high before.

History will have to tell us if this was a job well done or something else.

Reuters: Afghan opium crop hits record high ahead of Western withdrawal

Afghan opium cultivation has hit a record high as international forces prepare to leave the country, the United Nations said on Wednesday, with concern that profits will go to warlords jockeying for power ahead of a presidential election next year. The expansion of poppy to 209,000 hectares (516,000 acres), will embarrass Afghanistan’s aid donors after more than 10 years of efforts to wean farmers off the crop, fight corruption and cut links between drugs and the Taliban insurgency. …..

The area under poppy is 36 percent higher than in 2012, and eclipses the previous record set in 2007, when 193,000 hectares (477,000 acres) were cultivated, the U.N. anti-drugs agency said in a report. Total output is estimated at 5,500 tonnes of opium, up 49 percent from 3,700 tonnes in 2012. Farm-gate profits are expected to approach $1 billion, or 4 percent of gross domestic product. Some of those profits will be funneled off by the Taliban to fuel their insurgency. …… 

A kg of opium costs some $200 at the farm-gate. This produces about 100 g of pure heroin. The street price of heroin is about $170 per gram (2012 prices) for typically 40% pure heroin (75% is considered high). The $200 dollars for the 1 kg of opium is thus marked-up to about $40,000 as street-heroin. If the profits at the farm-gates are $1 billion, it can be expected that the profits on the streets from the processed drugs must be of the order of 50 – 100 times greater.

A steady profit stream of $50 – 100 billion per year clearly will – and does –  cause many to salivate.

The Spoils of War:

Each kg. of opium produces 100 grams of pure heroin. The US retail prices for heroin (with a low level of purity) is, according to UNODC of the order of $172 a gram. The price per gram of pure heroin is substantially higher.

The profits are largely reaped at the level of the international wholesale and retail markets of heroin as well as in the process of money laundering in Western banking institutions. 

The revenues derived from the global trade in heroin constitute a multibillion dollar bonanza for financial institutions and organized crime.

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By 2100, 8 million could be over 100 years old

November 13, 2013

The 2012 review of the UN’s World Population Prospects was released in August this year.

World Population Prospects 2012 (pdf – 3.53Mb)

Charts are still – presumably – being prepared since the interactive charts from the 2010 review are no longer available on the UN site and have not yet been replaced by new charts.

The basic picture is still of fertility rates decreasing steadily with the medium scenario giving a world population stabilising at about 10.8 billion around 2100. Chinese population is just about at its peak and will now be reducing till 2100. Indian population will reach its peak around 2060 and then start declining. African population will reach its peak only around 2100.

WPP12 Fertlity

WPP12 Fertlity

There is a massive amount of data and projections, and the interesting thing about demographic forecasts done on this scale is that the “inertia” is high. Consequently much of the “forecast” is inevitable and the key parameter is the fertility rate. In 1953, 99.9% of the world population exhibited a fertility rate greater than 2.1 children per woman (the static population replenishment rate). Now in 2013, 49% of the world’s population have a fertility rate lower than 2.1. Half the world’s population is already shrinking. By 2100 this will be 81% and the world population as a whole will be shrinking.

A significant proportion of those under ten years old today will still be around in 2100. Today about 20% of the world population is under 10 years old ( approximately 1,400 million). In 2100 around 8% of 10.8 billion will be over 80 years old. Assuming that say 3% are older than 87 years, it would mean that 320 million (or 23% of those under 10 or about 5% of everybody) living today will still be around in 2100. Today about 14% of the world’s population is over 60 and about 2% are over 80. By 2100, 35% will be over 60 and about 8% over 80 years old. The 950 million over 60 today will become 3,800 million by 2100.

More than 800 million people will be over 80 and I would estimate that around 1% of these  – or 8 million – could be over 100 years old!

Bloomberg (2012): Unicharm Corp.’s sales of adult diapers in Japan exceeded those for babies for the first time last year.

Just the demographics is changing the make up of the world and its genetic mix.

WPP12 population mix

WPP12 population mix

The human genetic pool in 2100 will be geographically placed 40% in Africa, 40% in Asia with the remaining 20% spread between The Americas, Oceania and Europe. And while there will be some migration and genetic mixing, this basic distribution will be maintained. Moreover, fertility rates will be stable and close to (even if just under) 2.1 in all regions. Median age is also on the way up world-wide.

WPP12 median age

WPP12 median age

Life expectancy is rising across the world:

The twentieth century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at the world level was 47 years and it had reached 69 years by 2005-2010. Over the next 40 years, life expectancy at birth at the global level is expected to reach 76 years in 2045-2050 and 82 years in 2095-2100 (table III.1 and figure III.1). The more developed regions already had a high expectation of life in 1950-1955 (64.7 years) and have since experienced further gains in longevity. By 2005-2010 their life expectancy stood at 76.9 years, 10 years higher than in the less developed regions where the expectation of life at birth was 67.0 years. Although the gap between the two groups is expected to narrow between 2005 and mid-century, in 2045-2050 the more developed regions are still expected to have considerably higher life expectancy at birth than the less developed regions (82.8 years versus 74.8 years). Throughout 2010-2100, systematic progress against mortality is further expected to increase life expectancy at birth up to 88.9 years in the more developed regions and 80.8 years in the less developed regions thereby further reducing the gap in mortality between the two groups.

What occurs to me also is that famine, disease, war and the effects of natural catastrophes are becoming less and less relevant demographically. But I shall return to that subject in another post.

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UPDATE! Indian Mars orbiter supplementary firing successful

November 12, 2013

The supplementary burn made this morning to correct for the incompleteness of the 4th burn yesterday appears to have been successful. The objective was to reach an orbit (apogee) of 100,000 km and this seems to have been achieved with some margin to spare. The observed change is to an orbit with an apogee of 118,462 km. The next step on 18th November is to raise the apogee to just under 200,000 km and then insert the craft into the Trans-Mars trajectory on 1st December.

So far, so good and the success of the correction by the supplementary burn is both impressive and encouraging.

ISRO: 

  • Fourth supplementary orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 05:03:50 hrs(IST) on Nov 12, 2013, with a burn Time of 303.8 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 78276km to 118642km.

The launch and subsequent orbit manoeuvre burns so far are summarised here:

  1. The Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, India’s first interplanetary spacecraft, was launched into an elliptical earth orbit with a perigee of 248.4 km and an apogee of 23,550 km, inclined at an angle of 19.27 deg to the equator by India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle in its twenty fifth flight (PSLV-C25). The achieved orbit was very close to the intended one. The launch was conducted from Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) SHAR, Sriharikota on November 05, 2013. The launch of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft occurred as scheduled from the First Launch Pad at 2:38 pm IST after a fifty six and a half hour count down. 
  2. The first orbit-raising manoeuvre of India’s Mars Orbiter Spacecraft was performed at 01:17 hrs Indian Standard Time (IST) early this morning (November 07, 2013) when the 440 Newton Liquid Engine of the spacecraft was fired for 416 seconds by commanding it from Spacecraft Control Centre (SCC) at ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC) at Peenya, Bangalore. With this engine firing, the spacecraft’s apogee (farthest point to Earth) has been raised to 28,825 km, while its perigee (nearest point to Earth) is at 252 km. 
  3. The second orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 02:18:51 hrs(IST) on Nov 08, 2013, with a burn time of 570.6 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 28814 km to 40186 km.
  4. The third orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 02:10:43 hrs(IST) on Nov 09, 2013, with a burn time of 707 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 40186km to 71636km.
  5. In the fourth orbit-raising operation conducted on Nov 11, 2013, the apogee (farthest point to Earth) of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft was raised from 71,623 km to 78,276 km by imparting an incremental velocity of 35 metres/second (as against 130 metres/second originally planned to raise apogee to about 100,000 [1 lakh] km). The spacecraft is in normal health. A supplementary orbit-raising operation is planned for November 12, 2013, at 0500 hrs IST to raise the apogee to nearly 1 lakh km. 
mangalyaan trajectory

mangalyaan trajectory: image ISRO

Related posts: 

Indian Mars orbiter’s fourth burn in earth orbit only partially succesful

India’s frugal Mars orbiter mission completes 3rd burn in earth orbit

Frugal engineering for India’s Mars mission

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Another Israeli assasination? Iranian deputy minister killed

November 11, 2013

It may be just my perception. But I don’t think it is so far-fetched that Israeli foreign policy in support of its perceived security interests is supremely pragmatic and uncluttered by any ethical concerns. In matters of security of the Israeli State, it seems that ethics is just not relevant. While most of their diplomatic efforts are often channeled through friendly nations (the US or France ..) it does not seem unlikely that they also have extensive covert activities as a back-up.

That Israel conducts targeted killings as an almost routine activity does not seem implausible and has led to much speculation. The alleged poisoning of Arafat (by radative polonium) has also been put down to Israeli agents. The possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and rendering their own relatively toothless is serious enough that systematically assassinating key figures in Iran’s nuclear programme would seem justified to Israel.

This particular killing is apparently of a relatively unimportant deputy minister — but who knows?

BBC: An unknown attacker has shot dead Iran’s deputy industry minister. Safdar Rahmatabadi was driving in Tehran’s Sabalan Square late on Sunday when he was shot once in the head and once in the chest, the state news agency IRNA reported. A police officer told the agency that the attacker appeared to have been inside Mr Rahmatabadi’s vehicle and spoke to him before opening fire. …..

Assassinations of officials are not unheard of in Iran, in particular scientists connected with the country’s nuclear programme. In January 2012 a car bomb killed university lecturer Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, who also worked at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. 

Earlier in November a public prosecutor and his driver were killed in the restive frontier province of Sistan Baluchistan, which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, Mr Rahmatabadi, whose portfolio also included mining and commerce, was seen as a low-profile official. He served in a similar role under the country’s previous President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

The shooting comes as Iran, under newly-elected President Hassan Rouhani, engages in talks with six world powers on its nuclear programme. Tehran maintains it is enriching uranium for civilian uses but Western countries have long suspected Iran of a secret nuclear weapons programme.

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Indian Mars orbiter’s fourth burn in earth orbit only partially succesful

November 11, 2013
The Indian Mars Orbiter Mission met its first setback last night when the planned 4th burn in earth orbit was achieved but did not or could not impart the extra velocity that was planned. The orbit rose from about 71,000 km (apogee) to 78,000 km instead of the planned 100,000 km. A supplementary burn is planned for the early hours of 12th November (burns are scheduled for when the spacecraft is near perigee and within clear and easy range of tracking stations).
The current position of the spacecraft is between India and Saudi Arabia

ISRO Press Release:

In the fourth orbit-raising operation conducted this morning (Nov 11, 2013), the apogee (farthest point to Earth) of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft was raised from 71,623 km to 78,276 km by imparting an incremental velocity of 35 metres/second (as against 130 metres/second originally planned to raise apogee to about 100,000 [1 lakh] km). The spacecraft is in normal health. A supplementary orbit-raising operation is planned tomorrow (November 12, 2013) at 0500 hrs IST to raise the apogee to nearly 1 lakh km. 

During the orbit-raising operations conducted since November 7, 2013, ISRO has been testing and exercising the autonomy functions progressively, that are essential for Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) and Mars Orbit Insertion (MOI).  

During the first three orbit-raising operations, the prime and redundant chains of gyros, accelerometers, 22 Newton attitude control thrusters, attitude and orbit control electronics as well as the associated logics for their fault detection isolation, and reconfiguration have been exercised successfully. The prime and redundant star sensors have been functioning satisfactorily. The primary coil of the solenoid flow control valve was used successfully for the first three orbit-raising operations. 

During the fourth orbit-raising operations held today (November 11, 2013), the redundancies built-in for the propulsion system were exercised, namely, (a) energising the primary and redundant coils of the solenoid flow control valve of 440 Newton Liquid Engine and (b) logic for thrust augmentation by the attitude control thrusters, when needed. However, when both primary and redundant coils were energised together, as one of the planned modes, the flow to the Liquid Engine stopped. The thrust level augmentation logic, as expected, came in and the operation continued using the attitude control thrusters. This sequence resulted in reduction of the incremental velocity. 

While this parallel mode of operating the two coils is not possible for subsequent operations, they could be operated independently in sequence.

Mangalyaan current position 20131111 0830CET

Mangalyaan current position 20131111 0830CET

TOI: The first orbit-raising manoeuvre of India’s Mars Orbiter Mission was performed at 01:17 hrs Indian Standard Time (IST) early on November 07, 2013) when the 440 Newton Liquid Engine of the spacecraft was fired for 416 seconds by commanding it from Spacecraft Control Centre (SCC) at Isro Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC) at Peenya, Bangalore. With this engine firing, the spacecraft’s Apogee (the farthest point to Earth) was raised to 28,825km.

The second orbit raising manoeuvre of MOM was at 02:18:51 hrs(IST) on Nov 8, 2013.The change observed in Apogee was from 28,814km to 40,186km. 

The third orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Mission spacecraft, starting at 02:10:43 hrs on Nov 09, 2013, was successful. The change observed in the Apogee was from 40,186 km to 71,636km.

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France does Israel’s bidding and “spoils” nuclear deal with Iran

November 10, 2013

The French – Israeli nuclear cooperation goes back a long way to 1956. That Israel’s “secret” Nuclear Weapon’s programme has long been assisted and enabled by the French is also one of those open secrets that is never officially acknowledged.

Haaretz: May 9, 2007

Israel and France once made a secret deal to produce a nuclear bomb together, according to a new biography of Vice Premier Shimon Peres. The deal was later cancelled, but the disclosure in the book by historian Michael Bar-Zohar sheds new light on the depth of France’s involvement in Israel’s nuclear program.

Bar-Zohar told Reuters his information came from recently released documents from Israeli and French government archives relating to the key role Peres, now 83, played in launching Israel’s nuclear project more than half a century ago. The book divulges new details of how Peres served as a behind-the-scenes architect of Israel’s military might, securing weapons secretly and buying an atomic reactor from France. …

Experts believe Israel has used the Dimona reactor it built with French help in the 1960s to produce as many as 200 nuclear warheads. Israel neither confirms nor denies it has atomic weapons, saying only it will not be the first country to introduce them to the Middle East. …..

The most significant, experts say, is a secret agreement Peres signed in 1957 with then French Prime Minister Maurice Bourges-Maunoury in Paris, several months after the deal for the reactor was concluded. “It stated in so many words that the two nations would cooperate in research and production of nuclear weapons,” the book says.

France ultimately scrapped that agreement several years later under the weight of enormous United States diplomatic pressure for it to cease its nuclear cooperation with Israel.

The so-called formal scrapping of the deal has long been recognised as a public relations gesture which has little to do with actual cooperation on the ground. Now Israel probably has something in excess of 100 and maybe up to 200 nuclear warheads.

Federation of American Scientists: In the fall of 1956, France agreed to provide Israel with an 18 MWt research reactor. However, the onset of the Suez Crisis a few weeks later changed the situation dramatically. Following Egypt’s closure of the Suez Canal in July, France and Britain had agreed with Israel that the latter should provoke a war with Egypt to provide the European nations with the pretext to send in their troops as peacekeepers to occupy and reopen the canal zone. In the wake of the Suez Crisis, the Soviet Union made a thinly veiled threat against the three nations. This episode not only enhanced the Israeli view that an independent nuclear capability was needed to prevent reliance on potentially unreliable allies, but also led to a sense of debt among French leaders that they had failed to fulfill commitments made to a partner. French premier Guy Mollet is even quoted as saying privately that France “owed” the bomb to Israel.

On 3 October 1957, France and Israel signed a revised agreement calling for France to build a 24 MWt reactor (although the cooling systems and waste facilities were designed to handle three times that power) and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, a chemical reprocessing plant. This complex was constructed in secret, and outside the IAEA inspection regime, by French and Israeli technicians at Dimona, in the Negev desert under the leadership of Col. Manes Pratt of the IDF Ordinance Corps.

That Israel is not happy that Iran may reach a deal with the West and get sanctions lifted and be able to continue with the bulk of their nuclear program is only to be expected. That Israel would turn to France to be the spoiler in the discussions with Iran is also not surprising. And it is patently obvious that France is doing Israel’s bidding and is being intransigient at the Geneva discussions.

But how long can or will France be ready to continue in their “spoiler” role? Francois Hollande has enough troubles of his own not to also wish to be seen as Netanyahu’s poodle.

Perhaps a year?

The Guardian: Sunday 10 November 2013

Three gruelling days of high-level and high-stakes diplomacy came to an end in Geneva with no agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, after France blocked a stopgap deal aimed at defusing tensions and buying more time for negotiations. …

The Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also sought to play down the disagreements that had surfaced with France, and the divisions between the six-nation group, known as the P5+1. ….

….. other diplomats at the talks were furious with the role of the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, whom they accused of breaking ranks by revealing details of the negotiations as soon as he arrived in Geneva on Saturday morning, and then breaking protocol again by declaring the results to the press before Ashton and Zarif had arrived at the final press conference.

But there is also a purely commercial aspect to the French “spoiling”. The animosity between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not to be underestimated and the the French desire for being Saudi’s preferred supplier is almost without limit. Upsetting Iran gains them brownie points with Saudi. They are on much safer ground here since Saudi does not have the capability of running its own nuclear programme in any foreseeable future. Nuclear power plant in Saudi supplied by France would not pose any great threat to Israel.

But one day – when the balances are different –  Saudi  may well have enough money to buy a few warheads and I would not be surprised if France is then at the front of the pack of potential vendors.

Saudi Gazette: October 03, 2013

French companies AREVA and EDF hosted a number of Saudi business and industry representatives at their Second Suppliers Day event held in Jeddah on Tuesday to take part in the framework of the sustainable energy program suggested by King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) focused on nuclear and renewable energy sources. …. 

Speaking to the Saudi Gazette, the French Ambassador to the Kingdom said “the aim of this meeting is very clear, France has been the first country to sign government to government agreement on nuclear and energy because we do think that taking it into account the huge program the Saudi government wants to implement in the nuclear field and France has a lot to bring in terms of the best nuclear technology in the world.”

Besancenot added that Saudi Arabia is a strategic partner of France in the region and the bilateral relationship is of paramount importance in the economic field as “we are seeing that bilateral trade has doubled over the last five years.” He stressed that France is ready to be Saudi Arabia’s strategic partner in the field of nuclear and renewable energy. He also highlighted the competencies of France’s nuclear energy industry and its ability to support the Kingdom goal.

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Science journalism by press release -“New ligament found in the knee” – Yes back in 1879!

November 10, 2013

Last week every Science section in every major newspaper reported the discovery of a new ligament in the knee! Every science site carried the astonishing news in breathless tones of wonder! I almost wrote about it since my son had had his knee ligament reconstructed a few years ago after a volleyball accident. But I couldn’t get access to one of the references and I didn’t – thank goodness!

To put it mildly the “newness” of the discovery was all a load of bulls**t.

The body part in question had been discovered in 1879! A new paper had been written about this ligament and published on 1st August. But their University had only issued a press release last week. And not one of the very many science “journalists” looked beyond the press release and had bothered to read the very first line of the paper abstract which stated “In 1879, the French surgeon Segond described the existence of a ‘pearly, resistant, fibrous band’ at the anterolateral aspect of the human knee…” . Instead they went to town with their headlines as this simple Google search shows (About 29,200,000 results in 0.32 seconds) 

Science journalism by infectious press release!

Paul Raeburn’s take-down is as comprehensive as needed and is reproduced here:

 It was startling news, but an easy story to write: Scientists have discovered a new body part! Amazing, isn’t it, that something could have eluded us since the time of Hippocrates?

Well, it would be amazing, except for one little detail, a detail so trivial I’m embarrassed to bring it up: It isn’t true.

But, hey, it’s an unusually warm Thursday in New York, I’m feeling good about life, so let’s give the journalists who bungled this story a break.

Why? Because in order to discover that the story wasn’t true, they would have had to dig down all the way to the very first line of the study’s abstract, which says, “In 1879, the French surgeon Segond described the existence of a ‘pearly, resistant, fibrous band’ at the anterolateral aspect of the human knee…”

That’s the body part in question, as journalists who even glanced at the abstract would have known. The darn thing was discovered 134 years ago.

USA Today‘s story, headlined, “New body part discovered,” reports that the new study confirmed the existence of the thing, called the anterolateral ligament, or ALL. The story then says that in Segond had “speculated” about the ligament, when the abstract clearly says that he “described” it. (Please excuse the annoying overuse of italics, but it’s hard to write normally when you’re grinding your teeth.)

Gizmodo‘s story: “It may sound impossible but scientists have discovered a new body part.”

Vanity Fair: “Newly Discovered Body Part Means New Sections of WebMD to Memorize!” Funny, right?

TIME: “Your Knee Bone’s Connected to Your…What? Scientists Discover New Body Part.” This story has the virtue of consistency. Unlike some of the others, it’s wrong all the way through. Congrats, people! Segond, TIME writes, “theorized” that the knee might have another ligament.

FoxNews.com: “Surgeons Discover New Ligament in Human Knee.” The story reports that the study’s authors “looked into a theory made by a French surgeon in 1879, which claimed that an unknown ligament existed on the anterior of the human knee.” Well, what was it–a theory, or a claim? Prospectors can theorize about the location of gold deposits, but that falls far short of staking a claim.

MsnNow.com: “Doctors find totally new, undiscovered part of the human body.” MsnNow also reports that the Anatomical Society found this discovery “very refreshing.”

I’ll spare you any further examples, but here’s the catch: This study was published online on Aug 1, 2013. Why the sudden pickup now?

Apparently because the University of Leuven in Belgium, where the study’s authors work, put out a press release this week. The release sadly lacks TIME’s sparkling consistency. Its headline reports that surgeons described the ligament, which is–gasp!–correct. (The release still wrongly calls it a “new” ligament, as Ed Yong pointed out to me.) But the release’s author can’t help but go further in the text. The French surgeon “postulated” the existence of the ligament, it says. Wrong again; he described it.

That release was picked up by ScienceDaily, a press-release aggregator that masquerades as a news site, and which mangled the news further. “New ligament discovered in the human knee,” the headline reports. “Two knee surgeons at University Hospitals Leuven have discovered a previously unknown ligament in the human knee…” the story begins. ScienceDaily parrots the release’s “postulated.” And just for fun, ScienceDaily describes the new study as something “that could signal a breakthrough” in treatment of ACL injuries in the knee.

Only a single ray of hope penetrated my day, which had started out hopeful and turned so depressingly dark. The website io9 (“We come from the future”) got it right. “No,” its headline read, “science has not discovered a new body part.” The stories, it writes with admirable clarity, are “all crap.” It even links to the original French paper, where, if you’re so inclined, you can read about des ligaments dans le genou.

Moi, I’m heading to yoga; I don’t know how else to unclench my jaw.

-Paul Raeburn

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Assad’s gambit but is it Putin’s end-game being played out in Syria?

November 10, 2013

The Hindu carries an interesting editorial on Assad’s Gambit:

In extending his cooperation to the OPCW – which has until June 2014 to oversee the elimination of Syria’s chemical stockpile – President Bashar al-Assad has signalled his indispensability to a diplomatic settlement. Mr. Assad has underlined that not only is he in control but he is also willing to make tactical concessions. The odds are now stacked heavily against the Syrian rebels. After the United States shelved its plan to intervene militarily, opposition groups have had to reconcile themselves to the option of sharing power with Damascus. That al-Qaeda and other terror outfits have infiltrated the rebels’ ranks has also substantially diminished the support they initially received from the West. Not surprisingly, many of the rebel factions have expressed their reluctance to participate in the “Geneva 2” diplomatic conference scheduled for later this year. Mr. Assad, on the other hand, has made the Syrian government’s participation contingent on his being allowed to complete a full term in office.

Paradoxically it is the destruction of his chemical weapons which has made Assad an indispensable part of the solution. If it was one of the rebel groups (Al Qaida or a group supported by Turkey or by Iran or by Saudi Arabia or by the Kurds or by the Muslim Brotherhood) which actually did use the chemical weapons (Sarin gas) in September, then their ploy has misfired spectacularly. If it was Assad’s forces which released the gas (whether with or without his knowledge), it has certainly brought matters to a head and – also spectacularly –  shifted the course of this civil war. Syrian Opposition became “armed rebels” and are now equated with “terrorists”. From being about Assad’s repression and justified opposition the conflict is being transformed to Assad versus the terrorists.

Keeping score in the Great Syria Chess Game is not easy and when the chemical inspectors were called in I wrote

Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov are winning. The diplomatic path is now their creation. Suddenly Russia is the peace-maker in the face of US war-mongering! Not only was the US strike on their ally delayed indefinitely, it is now Assad’s Syria – and not the various opposition groups – which is required to engage with the international community. Any opposition forces who seem to be coming in the way of inspecting or securing control of the chemical weapons can now be attacked by Assad with the full support of the international community. Russia can continue supplying Syria with conventional weapons. ….

Bashar al-Assad is winning. He does not really need chemical weapons which cannot effectively be used anyway. Any US strike on his forces is postponed indefinitely. With no prospect of any no-fly zone being declared his air-force could be decisive in the civil war. The supply of conventional weapons from Russia is assured. His claim that rebels and terrorists were responsible for the use of Sarin is backed up by Russia and the UN weapons inspectors have no option but to investigate this (and they are on their way back to Syria).

But I think the Hindu is wrong to think that it is merely the infiltration of rebel groups by Al Qaida which has damaged their support from the West. The point is that the rebel groups supported and supplied by so many surrounding countries are not a home-grown opposition but are essentially a collection of mercenary groups fighting proxy wars for many players. Saudi Arabia and Turkey in particular were and are heavily involved – and may even have been instrumental in starting the armed conflict. Now of course Iran and the Kurds and the Muslim Brotherhood are providing succour and support for their pet groups. Al Qaida has its fighters from all over the region (and from radicalised youth in the West) trying to attain eternal salvation through martyrdom. The EU and the US supply arms through third parties to a variety of the rebel groups – and it often seems they have no idea who the arms are going to. Russia supplies Assad. Israel no doubt stirs the pot whenever it can and using whichever faction is available to maintain the turmoil.

As Aron Lund writes in his report,“Divided they Stand” An Overview of Syria’s Political Opposition Factions

The opposition landscape is so fragmented and disconnected, that there is little clarity even among activists themselves about what groups and coalitions are truly effective or enjoy popular support. ….

While it is unlikely that any of today’s political opposition groups will control the future Syria, they are likely to play a significant role in a future transition phase or reconciliation process. Regardless of who rules Syria in the future – the current regime, breakaway elite factions, a government installed with foreign backing, or armed rebels – they will need to connect with the political opposition to legitimize their own position.

Assad’s Gambit may be paying off but it is just a few moves within the Putin initiated defence. Whether the Putin defence also has an end-game in mind is as yet difficult to discern. It may just lead to a stalemate and a long drawn-out conflict. It may lead – in the best scenario – to a gradual political transition where Assad has an “honourable” discharge and exile waiting for him sometime late next year.

There are no longer any outright victories in sight in this multi-dimensional chess game where the rules keep changing. But if there is any overall direction to this end-game it is probably coming from Putin and Lavrov. Whether Obama and Kerry are playing the game, or are just bystanders providing infrastructure for the playing of the game remains to be seen. The EU is almost as divided as the Syrian opposition and are very good at mouthing platitudes. The dilemma that the US and the EU face is that support for secular forces in Syria is inevitably support for Assad. Support for any armed rebel group is also support for Islamist jihadists.

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