Archive for January, 2014

EU opposition to shale fracking is crumbling

January 27, 2014

The cost of gas in Europe (from the North Sea or from Russia) is about 3 times higher than in the US (from natural gas onshore and offshore and from the fracking of shale). The high gas price in Germany has led to a return to coal in a big way. Yet Europe has substantial reserves of shale which could give both oil and gas. Gas and energy prices are leading to the EU now increasingly trailing the US in competivity. Jobs are being lost. And it is the instant, knee-jerk reactions of the Greens in Europe, who have set themselves against fracking, which has slowed the deployment of shale gas. This mindless opposition is unsustainable and is beginning to crumble.

The UK has already declared its intentions to now pursue fracking in a big way. Other countries will have no option but to follow suit. The moratoriums against fracking in a number of countries (France, Germany …) will have to be withdrawn. Even Russia – which has a vested interest in keeping the price of natural gas high – is beginning to move on fracking of their vast reserves.

Europe has to frack. But politicians need a “decent”, politically viable interval to make their inevitable U-turns and give up their unsustainable positions. Fracking is becoming politically acceptable if not yet politically correct.

OilPrice

EU Readies for Shale Gas Breakthrough

  • Ukrainian company Nadra Ukrayny, along with co-sponsor International Gas Union, hosts a summit May 20-22 to discuss maximizing the benefits of shale exploration in the European community. Organizers say the event will have a pan-European focus, with strategy sessions focused on the shale potential from Eastern Europe to Great Britain.
  • Polish shale ambitions, meanwhile, were stymied in part by a decision from Italian energy company Eni to pull out of the country, the third company to do so since 2012. Eni said the geology was too complex to exploit now, leaving behind an estimated 187 trillion cubic feet of shale gas reserves. That too should pique future interest once technology evolves. Chevron remains one of the few players still in the Polish shale.
  • Rainer Seele, chairman of German energy company Wintershall, told delegates at a Berlin energy conference it was time for an honest debate about shale exploration. Late last year, German leaders agreed to keep a moratorium in place on hydraulic fracturing. Several European states have expressed reservations about the controversial drilling practice dubbed fracking. For Seele, it’s time for “an informed debate and legal clarity” because now, he said, the conversation is at a standstill. In 2012, a report found there may be as much as 100 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable gas locked on German shale.
  • Spain too entered the fray last week when the central government filed a challenge against a decision to ban fracking in Cantabria, a region near the coast of the Bay of Biscay.  Regional leaders voted unanimously to ban fracking out of environmental concerns last year, but with Spain importing more than 70 percent of its natural gas needs, the 70 years’ worth of gas in Cantabria is too rich to ignore.
  • France and Bulgaria are among other European states with fracking bans in place. Last week, the European Commission embraced a series of recommendations meant to ensure appropriate safeguards are in place for members that choose to go ahead with shale exploration. The EU said the recommendations were part of a policy framework meant to guide regional energy policy through 2030. EU Environment Commissioner Janez Potocnik said shale gas is “raising hopes” in Europe. With energy companies clamoring to get in line, Europe may be on the cusp of a shale breakthrough.

Dark-skinned, blue-eyed hunter gatherer

January 27, 2014

Light skin genes in Europe less than 7,000 years old

Genetic analysis of ancient skeletons is bringing pictures of our ancestors to light in vivid colours. What is particularly astounding to me is the mobility of our ancestors – and their genes – already in the pleistocene.

Less than 350 generations for the light skin gene to have spread all over Europe seems to be a very short time. But that is what is concluded from the genetic analysis of two hunter-gatherer skeletons discovered in a cave in the mountains of north-west Spain in 2006.

hunter gatherer from brana

 

Read the rest of this post

Heavyweights in Europe backing away from “green” follies

January 27, 2014

The beginning of the end of “green” profligacy? Perhaps – but the EU is still dominated by earnest, self-righteous, politically correct, fanatical, “green” fantasists.

Nevertheless it is a change of political climate in the right direction – from angry, hot alarmism  to a healthy, cold scepticism.

Lobby groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth are not pleased. And that itself is a good sign. After all – as the great sage John Gummer has pointed out – such groups have been infiltrated and taken over by the Trotskyites.

The inanity of those who would connect weather with global warming is stupefying. I don’t call it “climate change” since if change could include “global cooling” all the warmists would be left without any faith and be out of a job. 

  1. ‘We must not demonise coal’ – German environment minister
  2. UK: Climate scepticism blamed as Owen Paterson slashes spending on global warming
  3. UK: David Cameron pledges to rip up green regulations

Germany:

Germany’s environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, says coal-fired power is important to the country’s economic security and should not be subject to extreme negativity.

In a separate development, Ms Hendricks told Power Engineering International that a court decision, which found the forced shutdown of the Biblis nuclear power plant to be illegal, would not have any impact on Germany’s plans to wind down its nuclear power industry. Speaking to Frankfurter Rundschau, Ms Hendricks said that while the energy transition’s dependence on coal power was ‘undesirable’, it was necessary for the country’s stability, particularly as “we can no longer expect gas to flexibly complement eco-energy.”

“Gas is unprofitable while coal is booming. We must not demonize coal. We still need to transition to a guarantee security of supply.”

She added that ‘rectivating’ the energiewende meant tacking the undesirable development of coal’s eminence. However this, she said, is to be a long term goal governed by market mechanisms/ETS. ETS, which would have to be reactivated. 

In her view backloading of 900 million ETS-certificates is to be a first step even if it is not enough. “The two billion CO2 allowances, which are too much on the European market, must be permanently removed. The 900 million ETS certificates, for which the EU has recently decided on an interim basis, are not enough. We will aggressively fight in the EU for a functioning CO2 trading system.”

UK:

The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) will spend just £17.2m on domestic “climate change initiatives” this financial year, a 41 per cent decline on the previous 12 months, according to its response to a freedom of information request. …. 

The dramatic cut in domestic climate change spending comes in Mr Paterson’s first full-year as Environment Secretary – he took up the post in September 2012 . The spending now represents just 0.7 per cent of the department’s total budget for the year, down from 1.2 per cent last year.

Defra is in charge of preparing, or adapting, Britain for global warming, while the Department for Energy and Climate Change is responsible for mitigating the risks. ….  One source who worked with the Environment Secretary said: “Adapting to climate change in itself is not a priority for Owen Paterson. He doesn’t believe that floods have anything to do with climate change, so he calls the biggest aspect of adaptation ‘flood management’. When you talk to him, you don’t use words like ‘adaptation’ – instead you talk about the economic impacts and opportunities and present it as a market solution.”

UK:

David Cameron will on Monday boast of tearing up 80,000 pages of environmental protections and building guidelines as part of a new push to build more houses and cut costs for businesses.

In a speech to small firms, the prime minister will claim that he is leading the first government in decades to have slashed more needless regulation than it introduced.

A 16 year old bank robber fails to get away on his bike

January 26, 2014

This made me smile.

TheLocal.deA 16-year-old in Germany made off with hundreds of euros after he held up a bank using a toy gun, but was quickly apprehended when he fled by bicycle, police said Saturday. …..

The boy then raced off on his bike, chased by a witness in a car. He was apprehended by police several minutes later while trying to cross the border into Austria.

I’m still smiling but I’m not sure which bit of ineptitude is funniest;

  • his bicycle, or
  • his toy gun, or
  • his haul of several hundred Euros or
  • his attempt to cross the international border on his bicycle

What do 16-year-olds get taught these days?

Appparently bank robbers on bikes are not that uncommon. A 59 year old bank robber in Louisiana also got away on a bike but he had a real gun and got away with $14,000 before being caught a day later. But this bank robber in Burlington seems to have got away on his bike and has not yet been apprehended.

A surveillance photo shows a man believed to be the armed bank robbery suspect arriving by bicycle Thursday July 5, 2012, at the People's United Bank at 99 Dorset St. in South Burlington. / Courtesy South Burlington Police Department

A surveillance photo shows a man believed to be the armed bank robbery suspect arriving by bicycle Thursday July 5, 2012, at the People’s United Bank at 99 Dorset St. in South Burlington. / Courtesy South Burlington Police Department

The real interests in the Arctic

January 26, 2014

Much of what is said or written about the Arctic – especially by governments or government funded institutions – is political positioning for military reasons, for staking a claim to the resources in the region, or to ensure potential sea transportation routes. Denmark’s positional strength is entirely dependent upon Greenland being part of Denmark whereas Iceland is only a second-tier country as far as rights in the Arctic are concerned. Without Alaska, the US would be in a very much weaker position (and in 1867 the purchase price paid to the Russians was just $7.2 million, or about 2 cents per acre!)

The region is divided into five sectors of responsibility between Russia, the US, Norway, Canada and Denmark. But there are others wishing to develop rich Arctic resources. Among them there are Sweden, Finland and Iceland. 

Arctic Circle  Image Athropolis.com

Arctic Circle Image Athropolis.com

The Russians have just had a conference about future development of the Arctic Region:

The Arctic is in the zone of Russia’s special interests. During the last week,

  • the Russian authorities, experts and the international community were actively engaged in the issues of developing the Arctic region.
  • President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the issue of military presence in the Arctic;
  • leading political scientists and scholars participated in a round table discussion of the development of infrastructure in the Arctic;
  • and the International Maritime Organization announced an adoption of the Polar Code in the coming days.

……. It’s not a secret that a conflict is swelling between the countries making bids for the development of this territory rich of hydrocarbons and having a unique transit potential. Last year, Putin urged the Ministry of Defense “to pay special attention to the deployment of infrastructure and military units in the Arctic direction.” Today, the military industry is ready to supply the Defense Department with weapons that may be required in Northern latitudes. ….. Next to Russia, the US announced the increasing of its military presence in the Arctic. In these circumstances, Moscow needs to adhere to the course that was chosen during the Soviet times, member of the Federation Council Nikolay Fedoryak says.

“Back then, a serious contingent of Soviet troops was present in the Arctic. The troops located there mainly defended us from a possible air attack of the enemy. It’s not a secret that all strategic routes of US bombers were laid through the North Pole. Now, American capabilities of using high-precision weapons are significantly higher than in 1970-80ies. Therefore, it is inevitable that we need to restore the infrastructure and even do it on a higher level, so that we can protect our national interests. And if we don’t do it now, we may be late.”

…..  Russia puts great hopes on the development of the Northern Sea Route, which may become the most popular route from Europe to Asia. Its use will be strictly regulated in two years. The International Maritime Organization has announced its readiness to adopt the Polar Code of shipping. It will define international standards of the use of the Arctic for transportation purposes. The voluminous document will define in details what vessels and their crews, whose route passes above the 72nd parallel north, can and cannot do.

Until now, strange as it may seem, there were no international conventions regulating navigation in the Arctic. In other words, the same rules as those applied to the Adriatic Sea or in the Mediterranean with their mild climate were applied to the severe Northern region. However, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982 stated that each state could introduce its own rules of Arctic shipping, head of the Center of Maritime Law Vasily Gutsulyak says.

“The international community can establish provisions on the environmental protection in Northern areas. Thus, it provides a carte blanche to extend the application of a number of international conventions to the Arctic. But the Polar Code quite clearly determines the order of requirements to vessels.”

The game is really worth it. Enormous reserves of hydrocarbons – for example, more than 90 billion barrels of oil – are concentrated in the Arctic. Hence, he who is the most active player in the Arctic direction will secure economic and geopolitical influence in the region.

The positioning of each country is immediately obvious in news articles and the statements of politicians. But it it is also discernible in most scientific papers about the Arctic and especially those about climate and the potential for ice-free regions giving rise to potential new sea routes. Many so-called “scientific expeditions” to the Arctic (just as with the Antarctic) are merely for demonstrating a presence or establishing a claim, for

he who is the most active player in the Arctic direction will secure economic and geopolitical influence in the region.

The next frontier after the Arctic and Antarctic which will see countries similarly jostling for position will surely be the moon. Positioning is one of the key drivers for the Chinese Chang’e-3 moon mission and for the Jade Bunny’s gambolling there. Similarly the Japanese and Indian Space Programmes have political and commercial positioning goals among their key drivers.

Science fiction is coming to life. Within 100 years we shall probably see Japan and China playing out their terrestrial island territorial disputes also around planets and asteroids in space. I have visions of some astronauts being left on asteroids by one country or the other to establish territorial claims!! Maybe we will see mining companies “occupying” mineral rich asteroids.

China’s Jade Bunny apparently stuck on the moon

January 26, 2014

(I see that Chinese news reports usually translate “Yutu” as “Jade Rabbit” but from this version of the legend I prefer “Jade Bunny” as being more appropriate to the lunar creatures who went to Chang’e’s assistance and where the reincarnation of her husband Hou Yi was the Jade Bunny)

In a setback – apparently due to the difficult lunar terrain, the Jade Bunny lunar rover has suffered a “mechanical control abnormality” – which I take to mean that it is stuck and not responding to commands. China Daily has the story

China’s moon rover, Yutu (Jade Rabbit), has experienced a mechanical control anomaly, and scientists are organizing repairs. The abnormality occurred due to “complicated lunar surface environment,” the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND) said on Saturday, without giving further details. The abnormality emerged before the rover entered its second dormancy at dawn on Saturday asthe lunar night fell, according to SASTIND.

The lander, another part of the Chang’e-3 probe, also “fell asleep” earlier on Friday. The pair went dormant for two weeks about one month ago when the first lunar night of the mission occurred.

 ….. The Chang’e-3 lunar probe soft-landed on the Moon on December 14. Yutu separated from the lander hours later.

The success of the Chang’e-3 mission makes China the third country to soft-land a spacecraft on lunar soil after the United States and the former Soviet Union.

Lunar panorama: Chang’e 3 lander in Out of this World

Jade Bunny on the moon on 22nd December 2013 (photo Xinhua)

Jade Bunny on the moon on 22nd December 2013
(photo Xinhua)

Visualising the number of digits in the largest known prime number

January 25, 2014

Cool!

The largest known prime number is M57885161, which has 17,425,170 digits and was first discovered in 2013.

Visualising 17,425,170 digits.

largest prime known

largest prime known

Click here for the deep zoom into the digits of the largest prime

THE PRIME CHALLENGE:

The biggest prime number ever discovered is 17 million decimal digits long. Its predecessor, discovered in 2008 was 12 million digits long. Those are huge numbers, but there is also a huge gap between them.

In order to be efficient, the algorithms that have been developed to discover large primes will often leave large areas of unexplored territory in the number-space behind them: the “lost primes”.

We’re challenging you to use cloud computing to find one of those lost primes, and help to increase mathematical knowledge.

Most of the big prime discoveries have used many hundreds of thousands of computers over many years – it takes a lot of computing power to calculate a number that is 17 million digits long. This type of computing power was previously out of reach for casual observers. But cloud computing has changed that and we now all have access to a huge amount of computing power.

This challenge gives everyone the chance to discover new prime number by using cloud computing. We really aren’t expecting to get anywhere near close to the largestrimes ever discovered, but we do expect to find many of the lost primes. The challenge will also highlight which architectures and configurations of cloud computing resources work best for this kind of task.

FIFA/Qatar on track to achieve 6 deaths per goal for 2022 World Cup

January 25, 2014

Just a few days ago we had the report about atrocities by the Assad regime in Syria commisioned by the Government of Qatar which supports some of the rebel groups in Syria. The report was released on the eve of the Geneva II peace talks.

But at home the Qatar government is cracking the whip to get construction completed for the 2022 FIFA World Cup and in the process has been complicit in the death of at least 193 Nepalese construction workers just during 2013. FIFA makes the appropriate noises but effectively turns a blind eye. They have too much money at stake. In October last year I posted

Based on the track record of World Cup Tournaments, the Qatar 2022 championship will see between 100 and 180 goals – most likely around 150.

But this number will be easily exceeded by the number of construction workers who have been killed by then. Already over 70 Nepalese workers have died since 2012 and the total number is probably around 200. By 2022 this number will exceed 1000.

Perhaps FIFA could introduce a safety performance index for the Qatar World Cup? Maybe to have less than 6 deaths per goal?

The Government of Qatar does not fill me with any sense of operating in good faith and certainly not with any confidence – either for peace in the Middle East or for the 2022 World Cup. They don’t really care how many second-class, immigrant workers lose their lives in any case. But FIFA has no excuse. They are going to easily achieve about 6 deaths/goal for the 2022 World Cup. FIFA is already in the dock for some of the condition of construction workers in Brazil  for the 2014 championship, but they should break all records in Qatar. There are 8 years to go and the risk is that by then deaths will exceed 10 per goal for the Qatar championship. Both FIFA and Qatar have blood on their hands.

The Guardian:

The extent of the risks faced by migrant construction workers building the infrastructure for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar has been laid bare by official documents revealing that 185 Nepalese men died last year alone.

The 2013 death toll, which is expected to rise as new cases come to light, is likely to spark fresh concern over the treatment of migrant workers in Qatar and increase the pressure on Fifa to force meaningful change. According to the documents the total number of verified deaths among workers from Nepal – just one of several countries that supply hundreds of thousands of migrant workers to the gas-rich state – is now at least 382 in two years alone. At least 36 of those deaths were registered in the weeks following the global outcry after the Guardian’s original revelations in September. …

… The revelations forced Fifa’s president, Sepp Blatter, to promise that football would not turn a blind eye to the issue following a stormy executive committee meeting. …… 

The Pravasi Nepali Co-ordination Committee (PNCC), which has cross-checked the figures from official sources in Doha against death certificates and passports, is still receiving new cases on a regular basis. The Guardian has seen evidence of at least a further eight cases, which would take the 2013 total to 193.

The PNCC called on Fifa’s sponsors to reconsider their relationship with world football’s governing body, which awarded the World Cup to Qatar in December 2010. “Fifa and the government of Qatar promised the world that they would take action to ensure the safety of workers building the stadiums and infrastructure for the 2022 World Cup. This horrendous roll call of the dead gives the lie to those reassurances,” said the PNCC. ….. 

Leaking fuel from the wing captured by Norwegian Dreamliner passengers

January 24, 2014

Following on from my previous post, Norwegian’s troubles with Boeing Dreamliner planes continue. This report from Nordlys.no is about a cancelled Norwegian Dreamliner flight from Bangkok to Oslo on 19th January where passengers took pictures and video of fuel pouring out of the aircraft’s wing while it was taxiing at take-off! The take-off was aborted and the flight cancelled – fortunately

...

Fuel leaking from the wing of a Norwegian Dreamliner at Bangkok Airport – photo Ann Kristin Balto

Nordlys.no: Ann Kristin Balto of Tromso was one of the 285 passengers waiting 19 hours for the delayed flight from Bangkok to Oslo.

She took the photo which shows how large amounts of fuel flowed out of the right wing of the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner aircraft, …..

“When they discovered the error, they asked us not to take pictures because of the explosion hazard. Those who had already taken pictures were asked by the cabin crew if they could delete them”, said Balto.

Lasse Hagerupsen, a bank manager from Harstad was in a group of six and also noticed fuel leaking from the aircraft during taxiing.

“As the plane taxied to the runway and was about to take off, more passengers began to smell gasoline. The passengers alerted flight attendants who in turn reported to the cockpit. When the fuel ran out of the wing a half a meter long puddle of fuel was left by plane”. …. 

The bank manager confirmed that the attendants did not like that it was photographed. It was described by Norwegian as being due to defects in a valve.

The flight was canceled and the nearly 300 passengers were bussed to different hotels.

This one gives me some goose-bumps. I have seen the devastation from fuel-leak explosions and this could have gone really bad.

But all’s well ……

Dreamliner reliability is still short of the mark

January 24, 2014

Whether an aircraft is “available” to fly – whether a flight is scheduled or not –  is a measure – mainly – of the intrinsic soundness of that aircraft and its maintenance. The “dispatch reliability” of an aircraft or a type of aircraft is a composite measure of the performance of both the aircraft and the operator.

Aircraft availability and dispatch reliability and availability are two vital signs of any aviation operation. Availability refers to whether the aircraft is available for a flight, whether scheduled or not. An aircraft in for maintenance cannot be flown, and thus is not available. …. At its most basic, aircraft dispatch reliability accounts for whether the aircraft took-off on time and if not, why? If the dispatch performance and/or reliability of the aircraft is poor, then so is the level of service. …….

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