Archive for July, 2015

The CAR scandal: Cover-up of incompetence continues at the UN

July 22, 2015

Flavia Pansieri, the UN Deputy High Commissioner for human rights, resigned today after admitting in March that she had failed to follow up on the allegations of sexual exploitation of children in the Central African Republic by French troops and which had been revealed by the Swedish whistle- blower, a UN staff member, Anders Kompass. Initially the UN sought to cover-up by suspending Kompass and putting him under investigation. Even Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary general attacked Kompass for breaking UN rules rather than address the failings of the organisation. Kompass has now been reinstated but still remains under investigation for his administrative misdeeds. He had informed Pansieri about his misgivings but apparently she was too busy with budget cuts at the time and failed to take any action. Now she has resigned “for health reasons”, but the UN High Commissioner himself, Zeid Raad al-Hussein remains. According to Pansieri he also was informed and failed to take action.

Being UN officials, they all have immunity from any liability – even for incompetence and gross negligence. No further action will probably be taken, though Anders Kompass should probably give up any aspirations to promotion within the UN organisation. (I note again that no UN official will ever be held accountable for the negligence which led to cholera being introduced to Haiti by UN troops).

ABC (AP):

The U.N. confirmed Wednesday that Flavia Pansieri has left the post of deputy high commissioner for human rights “for health reasons.” No more details were given.

The allegations by several children as young as 9 of trading oral sex and sodomy for food with French soldiers tasked with protecting civilians in the violence-torn country didn’t become public until late April, almost a year after U.N. staffers first heard the children’s stories. Pansieri’s comments and other leaked documents led the U.N. secretary-general this summer to order an investigation into how the U.N. handled the case.

In a confidential statement for a separate internal investigation, obtained by The Associated Press, Pansieri said she had been distracted from the case by other issues, including budget cuts for several months. “I regret to say that in the context of those very hectic days, I failed to follow up on the CAR situation,” Pansieri said in the statement dated March 26.

She said she and her boss, high commissioner Zeid Raad al-Hussein, had assumed French authorities were handling the allegations, even as France pressed the U.N. for months for more information.

No arrests have been announced, and it appears that the only person who has been punished is the U.N. rights staffer who first notified French authorities.

The French soldiers, who were not U.N. peacekeepers, had been tasked with protecting civilians in a chaotic camp for displaced people in Central African Republic’s capital, Bangui, during vicious violence between Christians and Muslims.

Of course the UN is only as good as its member nations. I sometimes think that the UN, just like the EU, is not a forum for the dissemination of best practices as it should be, but functions instead to level down to the worst standards of a member nation.

Surge of news articles suggests that EC will approve GE acquisition of Alstom’s power and grid businesses

July 22, 2015

I speculated a few days ago that the remedies that GE had submitted to meet the European Commission’s concerns for this deal could well succeed. I also speculated that GE would have addressed concerns in two main areas; gas turbine technology and the business of servicing the Alstom fleet of gas turbines.

The EC decision is not due till late August but I observe that there has been a surge in speculative reports about a likely approval. These are appearing in the business and in the trade press and my guess is that they must be based on some background, unattributable discussions not only with Alstom and GE officials but also with officials of the EC. It does seem that a conditional approval will come in August and with the time needed for implementing the proposed remedies, financial closure could come early in 2016, Q1. Financial closure by the end of 2015 would be a little optimistic.

Reuters: France sees ‘reassuring elements’ in GE/Alstom bid

Nuclear Power Industry News: GE Proposes “Remedies” In Push For Alstom Acquisition

WSJ: GE Says It Submitted Remedies to EU Regulators for Alstom Deal

Recharge: Alstom CEO says GE deal ‘moving ahead’ as pair await EU verdict

The Street: GE’s $13.8 Billion Alstom Deal Likely to Get EU Approval, Alstom CEO Says

 

 

One cool summer increased Arctic ice by 30% – another indicator of the coming ice age?

July 22, 2015

A new paper in Nature geoscience confirms that the “cool” summer of 2013 increased Arctic ice volume by a third. It increased again in 2014 by 25%. Two cool summers have increased Arctic ice volume by 1.33 x 1.25 = 1.41 (41%).

The authors claim that this indicates that Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than has been previously considered, but I would  suggest that this also indicates something much more significant. It suggests to me that the conditions needed to trigger a little ice age (lasting 3 – 5 decades) are not so difficult to conceive of. With low solar activity, a few cool summers and a volcanic eruption or two would more than suffice. Even the long term shift from the current interglacial and back to glacial conditions (where interglacials last for 10 -20 millenia and glacial periods last even longer) could also probably be triggered by a few key events occurring together.

It is worth noting that for the last few years, ice cover in the Antarctic has been higher than it is has ever been since records began. The Arctic ice cover reached a very low level in 2012 but has rebounded quite strongly. Arctic ice levels are at the same level as in the 1980s.

By constantly rewriting historical data, the global warming orthodoxy try to show that every year is warmer than the artificially cooled past. Raw data shows no such warming. Satellite records show no such warming. It is only data sets where raw data is recalculated every year by very dodgy algorithms to give a calculated value for “global temperature” that warming shows up.

Global climatic changes must also show up as local weather. And this has been a miserable summer so far. June was colder and wetter – as perceived – than usual and July is proving to be colder and wetter than I have any memory of. My personal empirical observations would suggest that the shift into another little ice age has started.

Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013

Abstract: ……. Between autumn 2010 and 2012, there was a 14% reduction in Arctic sea ice volume, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent. However, we observe 33% and 25% more ice in autumn 2013 and 2014, respectively, relative to the 2010–2012 seasonal mean, which offset earlier losses. This increase was caused by the retention of thick sea ice northwest of Greenland during 2013 which, in turn, was associated with a 5% drop in the number of days on which melting occurred—conditions more typical of the late 1990s. In contrast, springtime Arctic sea ice volume has remained stable. The sharp increase in sea ice volume after just one cool summer suggests that Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than has been previously considered.

Even the BBC which is religiously fanatic (only exceeded by The Guardian) in its adherence to global warming orthodoxy, has been compelled to report the increase in Arctic ice. But of course they continue to deny that real data in conflict with model expectations can invalidate the models predicting man-made global warming:

BBC:

The volume of Arctic sea ice increased by around a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013. Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years. The scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have greater impacts on ice than thought. 

Why do they have to then add pure rubbish?

But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead.

Who needs a train?

July 21, 2015

From Twitter

At a Railway station in Bombay July 20th 2015 (unknown photographer)

Monsoon railways in Bombay

Every captive is not a hero – Trump may have a point

July 21, 2015

Trump is being castigated from all sides for questioning John McCain being described as a “war hero”.

“He’s not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

A “hero” or a “war hero” is just a label created by the media and public perceptions. The mere fact of capture and captivity cannot be a qualification for the label – but it very often is. It is a label often used and exploited by those released from a perceived “unjust” captivity.

(In Sweden for example, two rather irresponsible journalists who accompanied rebels from Somalia, illegally across the border into Ethiopia, Martin Schibbye and  Johan Persson, were captured and prosecuted for terrorist activities, and sentenced to 11 years in prison in Ethiopia. But after much outrage and diplomatic activity and ransom payments, they were released after about 18 months in captivity. Being journalists they were feted and made into heroes by the Swedish media – essentially for breaking the law in Ethiopia and for being incompetent. They have exploited their notoriety and their reputation as “heroes” extremely well since then. I note that another black Swedish journalist, Dawit Isaak has been in prison in Eritrea since 2001 but his plight has not engaged the interest of the Swedish media or the public or the government in the same way. A prisoner left behind.)

In McCain’s case, the basic facts seem to be:

  1. McCain was captured and badly tortured.
  2. He spent over 5 years in captivity.
  3. He did receive preferential treatment in captivity because of who his father was.
  4. He did make a “confession” about his war crimes which was widely disseminated by his captors.
  5. He did suffer permanent physical disabilities as a result of poor medical treatment and his torture.
  6. He was one of 591 prisoners released. Many prisoners died during captivity. About 600 other prisoners were alive at the time but were never released.
  7. For some reason, McCain is not supportive of the relatives of the missing prisoners in their efforts to get information about them.

He certainly showed great endurance and fortitude. He certainly suffered greatly. But does that make him a “war hero”?

In October 1967, McCain was flying over North Vietnam when his A-4E Skyhawk was shot down by a missile over Hanoi. McCain fractured both arms and a leg ejecting from the aircraft and nearly drowned when he parachuted into Trúc Bạch Lake. Some North Vietnamese pulled him ashore and he was then transported to Hanoi’s main Hỏa Lò Prison, nicknamed the “Hanoi Hilton”. He received very basic medical treatment and suffered severe torture and solitary confinement. His father was appointed commander of all U.S. forces Vietnam in 1968 and he was offered early release for propaganda purposes. He declined, in accordance with the Military Code of Conduct for POW’s and his beatings continued. In late 1968 he made a “confession” about his war crimes and this was used extensively by the N. Vietnamese. From 1969 prisoner conditions improved somewhat. He was among a total of 591 POW’s released in March 1973 after over 5 years in captivity. Many prisoners had died in captivity.

But there were many – supposedly hundreds – of other prisoners who were not released at the time. And now the story becomes very murky. Apparently the other prisoners were being retained to ensure that the Vietnamese received war reparations agreed to in the peace agreement. But these reparations were never payed since the agreement was rejected by Congress and these other prisoners were never released. The US Military always denied that there was any evidence of any prisoners left behind. Eighteen years later, in 1991, John McCain became a key member, with John Kerry as Chairman, of the Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA Affairs.

But apparently McCain was disinclined to pursue the fate of the prisoners left behind.

John McCain and the POW Cover-Up

……. The Pentagon had been withholding significant information from POW families for years. What’s more, the Pentagon’s POW/MIA operation had been publicly shamed by internal whistleblowers and POW families for holding back documents as part of a policy of “debunking” POW intelligence even when the information was obviously credible.

The pressure from the families and Vietnam veterans finally forced the creation, in late 1991, of a Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA Affairs. The chairman was John Kerry. McCain, as a former POW, was its most pivotal member. In the end, the committee became part of the debunking machine.

One of the sharpest critics of the Pentagon’s performance was an insider, Air Force Lt. Gen. Eugene Tighe, who headed the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) during the 1970s. He openly challenged the Pentagon’s position that no live prisoners existed, saying that the evidence proved otherwise. McCain was a bitter opponent of Tighe, who was eventually pushed into retirement.

Included in the evidence that McCain and his government allies suppressed or sought to discredit is a transcript of a senior North Vietnamese general’s briefing of the Hanoi politburo, discovered in Soviet archives by an American scholar in 1993. The briefing took place only four months before the 1973 peace accords. The general, Tran Van Quang, told the politburo members that Hanoi was holding 1,205 American prisoners but would keep many of them at war’s end as leverage to ensure getting war reparations from Washington.

Throughout the Paris negotiations, the North Vietnamese tied the prisoner issue tightly to the issue of reparations. They were adamant in refusing to deal with them separately. Finally, in a Feb. 2, 1973 formal letter to Hanoi’s premier, Pham Van Dong, Nixon pledged $3.25 billion in “postwar reconstruction” aid “without any political conditions.” But he also attached to the letter a codicil that said the aid would be implemented by each party “in accordance with its own constitutional provisions.” That meant Congress would have to approve the appropriation, and Nixon and Kissinger knew well that Congress was in no mood to do so. The North Vietnamese, whether or not they immediately understood the double-talk in the letter, remained skeptical about the reparations promise being honored—and it never was. Hanoi thus appears to have held back prisoners—just as it had done when the French were defeated at Dien Bien Phu in 1954 and withdrew their forces from Vietnam. In that case, France paid ransoms for prisoners and brought them home. ………..

Donald Trump may be a clown.

But he has a point.

Gold price at 5 year low – grounds for optimism?

July 20, 2015

I grew up in the post-war period when gold price was fixed at $35/ounce. That came to an end in 1971 when the US Dollar was decoupled from the gold price. Gold price has little to do with supply and demand and is more a measure of existing financial turbulence or fears about coming turbulence.

gold price 1900 - 2000

gold price 1900 – 2000

The gold price dropped to just under $1100/ounce yesterday. But does it actually function as a forward indicator of what is to come? Many analysts see it as a trailing indicator reflecting the movement of money into a “safe haven” or out of “safety” into areas of perceived , future growth. Rising gold prices then reflect – after the event – turbulent times. Growth, of course, lags investment. Therefore, it is thought, that falling gold prices is a forward indicator of coming growth and an indicator at least of bullish sentiment if not necessarily of a bull market.

Gold price 2010 - July 2015  graphic Bloomberg

Gold price 2010 – July 2015 graphic Bloomberg

Certainly the soaring gold price after the financial crisis reached its peak of $1883/ounce in September 2011 and stayed at very high levels through 2012. The current decline started in January 2013 and has been followed by rising markets for the last 2+ years. But while a weak growth (sans inflation) is beginning to show up globally (strong in the US, weak in Asia and treading water in Europe), a real growth spurt ought to bring gold price down to less than $1000/ounce.

So the current level and falling trend shows at least that in spite of the Greek problems and the Eurozone weakness, expectations of growth are still strong. Historically, before and during the “good days” of the 1990s, gold prices were at or lower than $400/ounce. The 2008 financial meltdown itself took prices from 800 to 1800.

Gold price 1980 - july 2015

Gold price 1980 – july 2015

So I’m looking for a global growth level corresponding to gold prices back to around $900/ounce. But, unfortunately, I suspect that the gold price will not function as a forward indicator but will only reflect what has already happened. So, if it drops to less than $1000, my retirement funds will be reasonably safe.

But if it rises, I’ll have to have scrambled long before it does.

Send in the clowns. Maybe they’ll win.

July 19, 2015

Stephen Sondheim’s song “Send in the clowns” is a reference to the theatre where “if the show is not going well, send in the clowns” applied. It seems this applies to politics as well.

In the US we have a clown on the right making large noisy waves and Donald Trump is actually leading in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination.

In the UK we have a clown from the lunatic left fringe of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, also in the lead for the leadership of the Labour party.

The chances of either actually winning are low, though the Labour Party leadership contest must be decided soon. There may not be enough time for the Labour Party to come to its senses and they may wake up to find they have elected a Marxist leader without really intending to. For the Republicans there is much more time available for Trump to implode. But they are both clowns being sent in since their respective shows are going so badly. In the US the Republicans are not just fragmented, they have no clear vision of where they want to go and the many candidates are struggling to find a few key issues which resonate across the country. Trump has shaken things up by focusing not on immigration broadly, but on the undoubtedly disproportionately high level of criminality among illegal Latino (i.e Mexican) immigrants. He has challenged political correctness and decorum by asking why someone who gets captured (and even if they show great fortitude in surviving a brutal imprisonment) becomes a “war hero”. He is not being very nice at all but it is not difficult to see the point he makes. that just having the ability to be captured is not the stuff of heroes. Trump the clown is having a field day as the Republicans scramble and search for what they are.

Jeremy Corbyn was not taken seriously when the Labour party leadership contest began. He was having a tough time getting enough nominations to be included. Many felt that a “token” candidate from the loony left would help to show their party’s “broad appeal” and he was included on the ballot because they were running scared of the SNP which had wiped them out in Scotland with a more left-wing manifesto than Labour had. So he just got on to the ballot. But then the Trade Union “Unite” endorsed him. Maybe they were being Machiavellian and though that by first promoting a guaranteed loser, they would ensure that their real candidate Andy Burnham would get elected. But in that case their ploy has backfired and they could get stuck with having the clown as the winner. Corbyn is a traditional, hard-left socialist. The maximisation of public spending is his solution to most economic issues. He automatically supports whoever is perceived to be the “underdog” and has had questionable links with extreme (and sometimes terrorist) organisations from the IRA and the Tamil Tigers to Hamas and other questionable Islamist groups. He is one of those clowns who is utterly convinced of his own gravitas. But now there are signs of panic within the Labour Party that Corbyn could see to complete demise of the party. Even the Conservatives are feeling just a little concerned that the meltdown of the Labour Party, which will inevitably occur with Corbyn, may not be such a good thing. Having a vacuum in opposition only leads to the devil you don’t know.

……….

Don’t you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you’d want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don’t bother, they’re here.

Isn’t it rich?
Isn’t it queer,
Losing my timing this late
In my career?
And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year.

Send in the clowns.

Maybe they’ll win.

A Deputy PM who isn’t (if you are in Sweden and the deputy is a “green”)

July 19, 2015

The Swedish Social Democrats were forced to bring the Environmental Party into government to cobble together a majority in parliament with external support from the Left Party (rebranded communists). The leader of the Greens, Åsa Romson, was given the title of “Deputy Prime Minister” but it has now been revealed that in the agreement between the Social Democrats and the Greens, the position was entirely titular. Fortunately the Social Democrats were sane enough and responsible enough not to allow the possibility of a Green Deputy PM actually stepping in to replace the PM when he was abroad or ill. That would be more frightening than nuclear weapons with a rogue state.

This agreement came to light this week when the PM, Stefan Löfven, was taken ill – just for a few hours – on his return from a trip abroad. Though he has not named any particular person to fill his empty shoes, it is usually the Foreign Minister, Margot Wallström, also a Social Democrat, who steps in.

Opposition parties have been quick to take pot-shots. “Unconstitutional”, said some of them, “to have a deputy who wasn’t”.

All good fun, but there is a serious point. The Greens are not seen, even by their partners in government, as being responsible enough to be allowed to take the reins. And that is the reality. The 6 Green Party Ministers in this government have, in my perception, amply demonstrated their inexperience which borders on the incompetent. They are a destructive force, primarily concerned with stopping actions from others,  but have few constructive ideas of their own. They raise barriers when others want to “do” but “do” very little themselves.

Dagens Nyheter: The Green Party spokesperson Åsa Romson’s is Deputy Prime Minister – but will still not act as replacement for Stefan Löfven (S). Instead, it is Margot Wallström, who has that role in government.

According to information provided to DN the Social Democrat leaders did  not want to give Romson the responsibility to lead the country in a crisis.

“Stefan Löfven has not appointed a deputy. Since no specific proxy has been appointed the role is taken by the longest serving Minister” says Hans Dahlgren (S), State Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office.

In the red-green government, Foreign Minister, Margot Wallström is the longest serving minister. Therefore she has, whenever available, led most of the cabinet meetings that have taken place since last autumn whenever Stefan Löfven has been abroad or absent for other reasons.

…….. when the Social Democrats and the Green Party negotiated for government posts last autumn, the parties agreed that Åsa Romsons title as Deputy Prime Minister was merely titular.

“We made no demands about getting an operational deputy post when we negotiated to enter government. It was more important for us to have clear responsibilities and cooperation in government”, says Åsa Romson.

The issue came to a head on Thursday when Stefan Löfven after a trip to Ethiopia suffered acute nausea and was taken by ambulance from the airport to the Karolinska University Hospital. But it took more than a day for the Prime Minister to answer DN’s questions on the matter.

The Green Party is based on agitation when in opposition. In government they flop about like fish on dry land.

Bewildered kangaroo

July 18, 2015
17 July 2015 A kangaroo on the Colmar Estate vineyard in Orange, New South Wales, Australia during the winter storm image AP

17 July 2015
A kangaroo on the Colmar Estate vineyard in Orange, New South Wales, Australia during the winter storm – image AP

 

Snow in Hawaii in July – another omen of the coming ice age?

July 18, 2015

Mauna Kea gets snow in winter but not in July – when Hawaii is supposed to be sweltering.

The omens are gathering. The false prophets of global warming will tell us that cold weather is perfectly consistent with a warming Earth.We ignore these divine omens of a coming ice age at our peril.

Hawaii News Now:

While most of Hawaii experiences sweltering conditions this July, part of the Big Island might seem like winter after Mauna Kea got some snow overnight.

Officials have closed the road to the summit of Mauna Kea Friday after snow fell and caused icy road conditions. A ranger reported mixed rain and snow, fog and 1.5 inches of frozen snow on the summit.

IMAGE TAKEN ON MAUNA KEA – JULY 17, 2015 Hawaii News Now

Image: Mauna Kea Weather Center

Image: Mauna Kea Weather Center 17 July 2015

With another ice age on its way, thank goodness for fossil fuels.