Archive for the ‘Alarmism’ Category
October 21, 2013
There is bad science and there is silly science and there is trivial science. There is also inane science.
And their are learned journals for all of them. This is a new paper published by Nature Climate Change. (One wonders why?). The authors though can be very pleased since they can each add another paper to their respective list of publications. “We learned from this experiment that even groups gravitate towards instant gratification”
Wow!
Jennifer Jacquet, Kristin Hagel, Christoph Hauert, Jochem Marotzke, Torsten Röhl, Manfred Milinski. Intra- and intergenerational discounting in the climate game. Nature Climate Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2024
EurekAlert has this to say:
Delayed gratification hurts climate change cooperation
Time is a huge impediment when it comes to working together to halt the effects of climate change, new research suggests.
A study published today in the journal Nature Climate Change reveals that groups cooperate less for climate change mitigation when the rewards of cooperation lay in the future, especially if they stretch into future generations.
“People are often self-interested, so when it comes to investing in a cooperative dilemma like climate change, rewards that benefit our offspring – or even our future self – may not motivate us to act,” says Jennifer Jacquet, a clinical assistant professor at New York University’s Environmental Studies Program, who conducted the research while a postdoctoral fellow working with Math Prof. Christoph Hauert at the University of British Columbia.
“Since no one person can affect climate change alone, we designed the first experiment to gauge whether group dynamics would encourage people to cooperate towards a better future.”
Researchers at UBC and two Max Planck Institutes in Germany gave study participants 40 Euros each to invest, as a group of six, towards climate change actions. If participants cooperated to pool together 120 Euros for climate change, returns on their investment, in the form of 45 additional Euros each, were promised one day later, seven weeks later, or were invested in planting oak trees, and thus would lead to climate benefits several decades down the road – but not personally to the participants. Although many individuals invested initially in the long-term investment designed to simulate benefits to future generations, none of the groups achieved the target.
“We learned from this experiment that even groups gravitate towards instant gratification,” says Hauert, an expert in game theory, the study of strategic decision-making.
The authors suggest that international negotiations to mitigate climate change are unlikely to succeed if individual countries’ short-term gains are not taken into consideration.
Could there be any form of cooperation – in any field – where long-term gains are not out-weighed by instant gratification? For any investment – let alone a cooperative investment – given a choice of a short payback or a long payback, is there any case where the long payback period is chosen?
This is so profound and so deep an insight it almost hurts!
Tags:behaviour, climate change, Climate change mitigation, cooperation, Motivation
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Climate | Comments Off on A new, profound insight into “climate change cooperation”
October 21, 2013
This is about a study on how facts – especially corrective facts – are ignored when some opinion or perception is deeply held. The study is about political perceptions and it strikes me that it is very relevant to the IPCC and the alarmists for whom the Global Warming hypothesis (that man-made carbon dioxide emissions are the primary cause of Global warming) is a deeply held political belief.
Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler, When Corrections Fail: The persistence of political misperceptions
Abstract: We conducted four experiments in which subjects read mock news articles that included either a misleading claim from a politician, or a misleading claim and a correction. Results indicate that corrections frequently fail to reduce misperceptions among the targeted ideological group. We also document several instances of a “backfire effect” in which corrections actually increase misperceptions among the group in question.
The behaviour of the IPCC and the Global Warming coterie in ignoring or explaining away real observations in favour of their computer models has always smacked of religious fanaticism rather than scientific objectivity. They have shown a preference for coming up with ever more fanciful explanations about why their predictions are not panning out rather than accept that the basis of their predictions may be mistaken. The heat lurking in the deep oceans or Chinese pollution blocking out the sun or “old ice” declining invisibly while “new ice” increases have all been suggested as explanations for
- the recent lack of warming,
- the broken link between global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, and
- increasing global ice extent.
It would seem that the global warming brigade are an “ideological sub-group” suffering from the “backfire effect”.
In this paper, we report the results of two rounds of experiments investigating the extent to which corrective information embedded in realistic news reports succeeds in reducing prominent misperceptions about contemporary politics. In each of the four experiments, which were conducted in fall 2005 and spring 2006, ideological subgroups failed to update their beliefs when presented with corrective information that runs counter to their predispositions. Indeed, in several cases, we find that corrections actually strengthened misperceptions among the most strongly committed subjects.
…. Political beliefs about controversial factual questions in politics are often closely linked with one’s ideological preferences or partisan beliefs. As such, we expect that the reactions we observe to corrective information will be influenced by those preferences. ……… Specifically, people tend to display bias in evaluating political arguments and evidence, favoring those that reinforce their existing views and disparaging those that contradict their views.
However, individuals who receive unwelcome information may not simply resist challenges to their views. Instead, they may come to support their original opinion even more strongly – what we call a “backfire effect.”
……
The backfire effects that we found seem to provide further support for the growing literature showing that citizens engage in “motivated reasoning.” While our experiments focused on assessing the effectiveness of corrections, the results show that direct factual contradictions can actually strengthen ideologically grounded factual beliefs – an empirical finding with important theoretical implications.
It is a little depressing that just using facts (science) may not be of much use in getting people to correct their misperceptions when these take the form of religious belief.
Many citizens seem unwilling to revise their beliefs in the face of corrective information, and attempts to correct those mistaken beliefs may only make matters worse.
It is the sobering – and depressing – reality that facts (read science) are always subservient to even completely irrational religious beliefs.
Tags:Backfire effect, Brendan Nyhan, Confirmation bias, global warming, IPCC, Jason Reifler, Opposing Views, science versus religious belief
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Climate, Religion | 6 Comments »
October 20, 2013
IF THE GLOBE IS WARMING, WHERE’S THE HEAT?
Arctic Ice levels are increasing fast and are within 1 standard deviation of the 1979-2000 mean.
Arctic Ice Extent 20131018 DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice
In the Anatrctic ice extent should normally have started reducing by 22nd Sepptember but kept increasing till about 1st October. At maximum it reached levels never recorded before. It is currently at a level more than 2 standard deviations higher than the long term 1981 – 2010 average.
Antarctic Ice Extent 20131018 NSIDC Boulder
This leads to obvious but simple conclusions:
- Over the last 34 years therefore, Arctic ice extent has shown great variability but is currently at values within one standard deviation of the 30 year average.
- Global warming – if it is taking place – has not left any significant signature in the extent of Arctic Ice which is larger than “natural variability”.
- Over the last 32 years Antarctic ice extent has consistently shown a small but steady increase.
- Global warming – if it is taking place – is completely absent in the record of the ice extent.
It could be argued – but it would stretch credulity – that heat is being stored in the deep ocean (having bypassed the surface waters by a hitherto unknown form of “deep sea radiation”) and that this will all be released in a coming catastrophic event (to be known as the Ehrlich Rapture) in 2047.
Or, it could be argued – again with little credibility – that man-made particulate emissions from China in the Northern Hemisphere and from Indonesian forest fires in the Southern Hemisphere have reflected away the Sun’s radiation and prevented the warming that should have taken place. This argument then fails since it would appear to describe a very successful application – if inadvertent – of geo-engineering.
Or we could choose the parsimonious explanation. There has been no global warming for the last 2 decades or so.
Any discussion about whether or how much warming is caused by carbon dioxide emissions becomes moot if there is no warming.
WHERE’S THE HEAT?
Tags:Antarctic, Arctic, Ehrlich Rapture, global warming, Polar ice packs, Sea ice
Posted in Alarmism, Antarctic, Arctic, Climate | Comments Off on Global Warming gone missing: Arctic ice back to “normal” and Antarctic ice at highest ever recorded levels
October 19, 2013
Snow has already come to Bavaria. Parts of Russia and the US have also seen some very early snow. Now, in just the 3rd week of October, snow has swept over northern Sweden. I have not had to clear any snow yet but I have had ice to scrape of the windshield for the last few mornings. I had only planned to change to winter tyres at the end of the month but I might have to bring this forward (to prepone it).
It is only weather of course! I wish somebody could tell me of any effects of global warming that could actually be experienced.
Autumn over as winter snow sweeps Sweden
Snow and sub-zero temperatures hit widespread parts of Sweden on Thursday night and will carry on through Friday and beyond, with meteorologists warning motorists that now is the time to change to winter tyres.
The coldest temperature of the season was recorded on Thursday night in Karesuando, in far northern Sweden near the Finnish border, where the mercury dropped to -12.5ˆC. Snow fell in Västernorrland, Dalarna and Gävleborg, and in many areas further north, but experts said the snow is nothing to worry about.
“I believe that in most places it’s only been a few centimetres of snow that have settled,” Sandra Andersson of Sweden’s weather agency SMHI told the TT news agency. SMHI issued a class 1 warning, stating that motorists should beware of slippery roads, although no damage was reported throughout the night.
Tags:early snow, Snow, Sweden
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Sweden, Weather, Winter | 1 Comment »
October 19, 2013
It has been one month since the Greenpeace pirates were apprehended by the Russians.
The high profile Greenpeace strategies to get them released have been less than competent. They seem to be particularly incompetent regarding the Law of the Sea. Rather than getting their pirates released, nearly all their actions have been counter productive and have led to a hardening of the Russian position, the denial of bail, the inclusion of drug running charges and now even the threat of terrorism charges. That Greenpeace believes it stands above Governments and can determine what constitutes acceptable or unacceptable behaviour does not endear them to either the Russian Government or Russian Courts.
- They have tried bluster and moral indignation.
- They have tried arguing that the ends justify the means.
- They have managed expressions of support for their cause by rock stars
- The Head Pirate has written an idiot “letter to Putin” in the form of a Press Release
- They have persuaded the Dutch Government to institute legal proceedings against Russia
- They persuaded the Dutch Government to get their police to apprehend and beat-up a Russian diplomat
- They have persuaded some Nobel prize winners to plead for the dropping of piracy charges.
- They have tried to complain that the conditions of detention are “inhumane”
- They have orchestrated emotional appeals by the families of the pirates.
- They have made press releases out of emotional letters from the pirates in captivity.
But humility and any hint that they might be wrong is not within Greenpeace’s genes. My expectation is that Greenpeace will continue to follow arrogant, ineffective and incompetent – but all high profile – strategies. They will only irritate and harden the Russian position even further against the criminals. (See what all the high profile, but equally incompetent, international publicity achieved for Pussy Riot).
What Greenpeace has not done but which they could do and which would probably get their pirates released in about a day is
- Get off their moral high horse,
- Acknowledge that they broke the law
- Get Kumi Naidoo to swallow his pride and grovel
- Apologise
- Arrange for each one of the detained to apologise to the court, and
- offer to give up their passports and accept some form of “house arrest” in exchange for bail, and
- provide individual and unconditional assurances that they will not flee.
- Assure the Russian courts – individually and collectively – that they will refrain from illegal actions and will abide by the decision(s) of the courts
- Assure their own Governments – individually and collectively – that they will refrain from illegal actions and will abide by the decision(s) of the courts
- Get their Government Heads to pass on such assurances to Putin (and effectively stand guarantor for the assurances given)
But I do not expect that Greenpeace and its pirates will ever acknowledge their arrogance or moral turpitude.
I expect the Russians will keep them locked up for some time longer. They may well add charges of terrorism – especially if any foreign Government tries to pressure Russian diplomats. If Greenpeace only sits on its high horse and continues to bluster, the 30 may well be there till just before Christmas.
And winter has come early to Murmansk.
Related: The Pirates of Greenpeace
Tags:drug-running, Greenpeace, Murmansk, Piracy, Russia, Terrorism
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Russia | Comments Off on The Greenpeace 30 could be free tomorrow but ……
October 17, 2013
Increasing the uncertainty in a statement to make the statement more certain to be applicable is an old trick of rhetoric. Every politician knows how to use that in a speech. It is a schoolboy’s natural defense when being hauled up for some wrongdoing. It is especially useful when caught in a lie. It is the technique beloved of defense lawyers in TV dramas. Salesmen are experts at this. It is standard practice in scientific publications when experimental data does not fit the original hypothesis.
Modify the original statement (the lie) to be less certain in the lie, so as to be more certain that the statement could be true. Widen the original hypothesis to encompass the actual data. Increase the spread of the deviating model results to be able to include the real data within the error envelope.
- “I didn’t say he did it. I said somebody like him could have done it”
- “Did you start the fight?” >>> “He hit me back first”.
- “The data do not match your hypothesis” >>> “The data are not inconsistent with the improved hypothesis”
- “Your market share has reduced” >>> “On the contrary, our market share of those we sell to has increased!” (Note -this is an old one used by salesmen to con “green” managers with reports of a 100% market share!!)
And it is a trick that is not foreign to the IPCC – “we have a 95% certainty that the less reliable (= improved) models are correct”. Or in the case of the Cook consensus “97% of everybody believes that climate does change”.
A more rigorous treatment of the IPCC trick is carried out by Climate Audit and Roy Spencer among others but this is my simplified explanation for schoolboys and Modern Environ-mentalists.
The IPCC Trick
The real comparison between climate models and global temperatures is below:
Climate Models and Reality
With the error in climate models increased to infinity, the IPCC could even reach 100% certainty. As it is the IPCC is 95% certain that it is warming – or not!
Tags:Certainty, climate change, climate models, global warming, IPCC, Model error, Uncertainty
Posted in Academic misconduct, Alarmism, Climate, Mathematics | 1 Comment »
October 15, 2013
It’s the right decision of course. The proposal was for yet another one of the many EU rules where the benefits are doubtful and the implementation would have had no measurable effects on the desired outcome.
But entirely due to German protectionism for its performance car industry – and much to the disappointment of Ford – the limit of 95g of CO2 per km for any vehicle’s emissions has now been delayed at least till 2024! Well Done Germany!
E 350 BlueTec
“The emissions limits are part of the EU’s drive to switch Europe to a low-carbon economy and slow the impact of climate change.”
The EU’s CO2 restrictions proposals for power plants and for aircraft and this one for cars are part of of a long line of “feel-good” proposals which the Greens are so fond of — full of sound and idiocy, accomplishing nothing. So far the EU has not proposed any restrictions on CO2 in human breath.
Hopefully by 2024, the idiocy of CO2 restrictions will have been recognised.
BBC:
The German government has persuaded its EU partners to delay introducing new limits on CO2 emissions from cars. Environment ministers agreed to revise a deal, reached in July, that set a limit of 95g per km for the average car. That target for CO2 emissions was to take effect in 2020.
But Germany, famous for its high-performance cars, says the 95g limit should not take full effect until 2024.
Green activists deplored the new delay as a “shameful sop” to polluters.
A leading German Green Party MEP, Rebecca Harms, accused Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel of “riding roughshod” over the EU’s democratic process, because the 2020 agreement had already been reached between the European Parliament and the Council – the EU ministerial grouping.
“Weakening the agreed 2020 limits, which have long been known, is a shameful sop to German car manufacturers and will slow the development of new technologies to deliver more efficient and less polluting cars,” Ms Harms said after the ministers’ vote. ….
The UK was among the countries that supported the German environment minister’s position on Monday, German ARD news reports.
The German minister, Peter Altmaier, said “it’s not a fight over principles but how we bind the necessary clarity in climate protection with the required flexibility and competitiveness to protect the car industry in Europe”.
Correspondents say there has been intense lobbying by luxury carmakers such as BMW and Daimler, maker of Mercedes, over the EU legislation.
The emissions limits are part of the EU’s drive to switch Europe to a low-carbon economy and slow the impact of climate change.
Tags:CO2 restrictions, European Parliament, European Union, Germany, global warming, performance cars
Posted in Alarmism, Automobiles, Behaviour, Europe, Germany | 7 Comments »
October 14, 2013
Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have become merely destructive movements. And their self-righteous beliefs in their world-view seem to justify any means. Not just piracy and drug-running, now Greenpeace have also been labelled “wicked” for their opposition to Golden rice. Patrick Moore – who was a co-founder of Greenpeace – called their opposition to GM crops in general and Golden rice in particular a “crime against humanity”.
And now the UK Secretary for the Environment, Owen Paterson called them “wicked” saying “they could be condemning millions of people in the developing world to a premature death”.
BBC: Opponents of the development of a type of genetically modified (GM) rice enriched with vitamin A are “wicked”, the environment secretary has said.
In an interview with the Independent, Owen Paterson said they could be condemning millions of people in the developing world to a premature death.
Mr Paterson backed a letter from international scientists calling for the rapid development of “golden rice”. …. Mr Paterson told the newspaper: “It’s just disgusting that little children are allowed to go blind and die because of a hang-up by a small number of people about this technology.
“I feel really strongly about it. I think what they do is absolutely wicked. There is no other word for it.”
Mr Paterson did not specify any particular groups in his interview but also said opponents of GM technology were “casting a dark shadow over attempts to feed the world”. ……
….. Meanwhile, in a letter to US journal Science, a group of leading academics accused Western non-governmental organisations of fuelling opposition to the development of GM technologies. They wrote: “If ever there was a clear-cut cause for outrage, it is the concerted campaign by Greenpeace and other non-governmental organisations, as well as by individuals, against golden rice.”
Environmental campaigners such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have said there are more effective solutions to vitamin A deficiency.
The Independent adds:
In the strongest attack yet on the anti-GM lobby Mr Paterson told The Independent that NGOs such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth that oppose GM technology were “casting a dark shadow over attempts to feed the world”.
Tags:drug-running, Friends of the Earth, Genetic engineering, Genetically modified crops, Golden Rice, Greenpeace, Owen Paterson, Patrick Moore, Piracy, wicked greenpeace
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Development, Food | 1 Comment »
October 13, 2013
Cyclone Phaelin came and it has now gone.
The Greens around the world are somewhat disappointed that many thousands have not died.
It was a very severe cyclone when it hit (windspeed 200km/h) but it did not reach the classification as a Super Cyclone (>220km/h windspeed).
It was a massive evacuation and that itself was somethiing of an achievement. More than 600,000 (and maybe as many as 1 million) moved or were moved out of harms way. 7 are known to have died in cyclone related events (falling trees in the main). Damage reports have yet to be assessed. Some fishermen are known to be stranded. The military is mobilised and stands ready for rescue and rehabilitation.
The Indian Meteorological community got it about right. But there were those who predicted that it would not only be a Super Cyclone at 220km/h but would be a Super Dooper Cyclone with winds up to 315km/h.
The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on Friday said Phailin is now expected to break the Indian Ocean intensity record set by the 1999 Cyclone in which at least 9,000 people were killed in Odisha.
Alarmists started criticising the preparations and the evacuations and suggested it would be worse than 1999 where at least 15,000 (unofficially 45,000) died. The Global Warmists at Huffington Post almost seemed to want the loss of life to be as high as possible so that they could blame Global warming (but note that they manage to blame any untoward weather event on Global Warming)
India should rename this meaningless obfuscation and call attention to global warming immediately. .. The anthropogenic global warming caused by accumulation of greenhouse gases is making the oceans warmer, which in turn is causing more frequent and more intense cyclones/hurricanes and floods.
Needless to say the Environ-Mentalists at Greenpeace were also hoping for a major disaster
Intense and destructive storms are likely to occur more frequently as global warming intensifies, Greenpeace said Saturday. “Such intense and destructive storms are likely to become more frequent in the future as global warming intensifies. India member Biswajit Mohanty. According to the organisation, cyclone Phailin which is expected to hit the coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh is likely to be the strongest such to affect India in 14 years, since the 1999 Odisha cyclone.
The Green Brigade conveniently forget that a Super Cyclone is generated in the Bay of Bengal every 10-20 years. It is a natural phenomenon known for at least the last 200 years. The super Cyclone of 1970 killed over 500,000 people. And the lessons learned since 1999, the major evacuation and the other preparations made seem to have achieved their objective and minimised the loss of life.
It was a severe storm and has surely caused some significant damage. But it is something which happens regularly and not anything unprecedented. It was not a Super Cyclone.
And it was nowhere near the major disaster that Alarmists, Greenpeace, Global Warmists and Environ-Mentalists were hoping for.
Tags:Alarmism, Alarmists, Bay of Bengal, Cyclone Phaelin, Environ-Mentalist, Greenpeace, India, Warmists
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, India, Natural Phenomena, Weather | Comments Off on Phailin came and Phailin went: Alarmists and Warmists disappointed
October 11, 2013
Oktoberfest only ended last week and 20cm of snow has already fallen in Southern Germany. A few weeks earlier than “normal”. But not to worry. Global Warming is here. Climate models cannot be fooled by little things like local weather and reality.
Snow in Bavaria, 11th October 2013 photo DPA
The Local: Winter has arrived in southern Germany with the first heavy snowfall hitting Bavaria on Thursday night and Friday morning.
The snow caused traffic chaos in the Garmisch-Partenkirchen area – a popular ski resort. Schools and kindergartens were closed, a police spokesman said on Friday, while authorities advised people to stay indoors.
Trees which have collapsed under the weight of the snow are also posing a danger for drivers and pedestrians. On one stretch of road out of Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 15 trees blocked traffic.
But the early winter weather also brought happier scenes with the first snowmen being built. Snow has also fallen in the southern state of Baden-Württemberg.
NoTricksZone reports:
Meteorologists warned us that snow was on the way and would fall below the 500 m elevation in southern Germany and elsewhere. Moreover, they warned us that this winter could be one of the worst in 100 years for Central Europe. …..
Online Die Welt here writes:
‘It began to snow in the Bavarian capital of Munich yesterday evening at about 6 p.m. Many of my meteorologist colleagues had believed this to be improbable,’ said meteorologist Dominik Jung: ‘This year winter has struck early and unusually severely. South of Munich up to 20 centimeters of snow was able to pile up.’”
Die Welt adds that schools have been closed in some localities, 22,000 households in Austria have lost power, trains have come to a standstill, and traffic has been in chaos.
Frost is expected to spread across southern and middle Germany this weekend, reports www.wetter.net, “Temperatures down to -4°C are expected under clear skies in some local areas.
Tags:Bavaria, early snow, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, Snow, Southern Germany
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Germany, Weather | Comments Off on Oktoberfest is hardly over and snow arrives in Bavaria
The k2p blog 