Archive for the ‘Behaviour’ Category
November 19, 2010
Tokyo Stock Exchange: image via Wikipedia
That insider training is endemic at all major stock exchanges is a modern-day legend. Evidential proof of insider trading is also notoriously difficult. Regulators are usually more concerned about the more “sexy” malfeasance a la Enron or a Madoff but usually long after the event and where recovery of losses is insignificant (Madoff caused 65 billion of losses and auction of his personal possessions by US Marshalls raised just 2 million dollars). If I am a little cynical it is because the actual creation and growth of real wealth (by actually making things that are wanted or providing real services that are needed) seems to be less important and less appreciated than the inflating of values (by creation of bubbles) and redistributing the artificially created “wealth” by “smart” methods.
Many of the statements and actions of the regulators are mainly for public relations purposes and sometimes lead to a few high-profile prosecutions. It is very rare for any small investors to recover what they may have lost as a consequence of fraud. Nevertheless it is always good to see the regulators have some success. Asahi News reports that
Financial authorities are taking action to prevent what has been embarrassingly described as “rampant” insider trading through short selling on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission (SESC) is looking into allegations of insider trading of certain stocks on the TSE, but declined to disclose the issues or amount traded. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) and the TSE, meanwhile, are considering tighter rules on short selling.
“We hear from overseas investors that insider trading is rampant in Japan. It’s a grave issue,” a senior TSE official said. In short selling, investors borrow shares from brokerages or stockholders under expectations the price will drop. They sell them and buy them back for a profit after the price drops, returning the same number of shares to the lender.
Insider trading suspicions have been raised over the public stock offerings by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), Nippon Sheet Glass Co. and INPEX Corp., which were announced between July and September. The stock prices of all three firms plunged before the announcements of their public stock offerings.
TEPCO, for example, made public it would raise 550 billion yen ($6.6 billion) on Sept. 29 at 4:30 p.m.–after the close of trading. Earlier in the day, however, large volumes of TEPCO stock, six to 10 times more than usual, were traded mainly through short selling, with the issue closing 7.8 percent lower than the previous day. Likewise, there was a surge in short sales of Nippon Sheet Glass Co. and INPEX Corp. shares, causing the prices of both stocks to fall just before the companies announced their capital increase plans.
Companies issue public stock offerings to secure funds from a large number of unspecified investors by issuing new shares. Because it increases the total number of the company’s shares, the value per share drops, leading to lower stock prices in the short run. “I’m sure information got out beforehand,” a market source said about the recent cases. “Foreign hedge funds sold in large volumes.” These suspicions are nothing new. “Often, after receiving many inquiries in the morning from foreign investment banks on how many shares of a particular stock we have, we find a capital increase announcement by the company. There was such an incident just recently,” said a senior official at a securities company. An SESC official said: “If we do nothing about such practices, we could lose credibility of Japanese markets. If there are allegations, we intend to investigate and crack down on them.” One apparent source of inside information is a “demand survey” on institutional investors conducted in advance by brokerages that handle public stock offerings. The survey is intended to gauge the enthusiasm of institutional investors to see if the capital increase plan would go well. But an SESC official said, “People who got the information beforehand could abuse it.”
The SESC has already taken action. Following the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group’s issue of about 300 billion yen worth of preferred stock in 2003, the SESC revealed in 2004 and 2006 that employees of investment corporations in Singapore and Britain had been involved in illegal trading of the shares, using information they obtained beforehand. But such investigations take time because the SESC needs to exchange information with overseas regulatory authorities. The investigation involving Singapore spanned a year and a half. The one concerning the British investment corporation required three and a half years.
Both the FSA and the TSE are considering limiting short selling for a defined period after an announcement of a capital increase–until the issue price of the new stock is determined. Under a U.S. regulation introduced in the late 1990s, investors who conducted short selling within five business days before the issue price is set are prohibited from buying new shares issued through a capital increase.
“A (regulation) system has been established in the Untied States, but apparently not in Europe. We need to look into the background, and it will take some time before we reach a conclusion,” a senior FSA official said.
Tags:Financial Services Agency, Insider trading, short trading, Tokyo Stock Exchange
Posted in Behaviour, Business, Ethics, Fraud | 1 Comment »
November 16, 2010
A new on-line paper in the Journal of Medical Ethics has studied the PubMed database for all scientific research papers that had been retracted between 2000 and 2010.
Retractions in the scientific literature: do authors deliberately commit research fraud? by R Grant Steen J Med Ethics doi:10.1136/jme.2010.038125
Abstract
Background Papers retracted for fraud (data fabrication or data falsification) may represent a deliberate effort to deceive, a motivation fundamentally different from papers retracted for error. It is hypothesised that fraudulent authors target journals with a high impact factor (IF), have other fraudulent publications, diffuse responsibility across many co-authors, delay retracting fraudulent papers and publish from countries with a weak research infrastructure.
Methods All 788 English language research papers retracted from the PubMed database between 2000 and 2010 were evaluated. Data pertinent to each retracted paper were abstracted from the paper and the reasons for retraction were derived from the retraction notice and dichotomised as fraud or error. Data for each retracted article were entered in an Excel spreadsheet for analysis.
Results Journal IF was higher for fraudulent papers (p<0.001). Roughly 53% of fraudulent papers were written by a first author who had written other retracted papers (‘repeat offender’), whereas only 18% of erroneous papers were written by a repeat offender (χ=88.40; p<0.0001). Fraudulent papers had more authors (p<0.001) and were retracted more slowly than erroneous papers (p<0.005). Surprisingly, there was significantly more fraud than error among retracted papers from the USA (χ2=8.71; p<0.05) compared with the rest of the world.
Conclusions This study reports evidence consistent with the ‘deliberate fraud’ hypothesis. The results suggest that papers retracted because of data fabrication or falsification represent a calculated effort to deceive. It is inferred that such behaviour is neither naïve, feckless nor inadvertent.
PhysOrg summarises the paper:
The study author searched the PubMed database for every scientific research paper that had been withdrawn—and therefore officially expunged from the public record—between 2000 and 2010. A total of 788 papers had been retracted during this period. Around three quarters of these papers had been withdrawn because of a serious error (545); the rest of the retractions were attributed to fraud (data fabrication or falsification).
The highest number of retracted papers were written by US first authors (260), accounting for a third of the total. One in three of these was attributed to fraud.
The UK, India, Japan, and China each had more than 40 papers withdrawn during the decade. Asian nations, including South Korea, accounted for 30% of retractions. Of these, one in four was attributed to fraud.
The fakes were more likely to appear in leading publications with a high “impact factor.” This is a measure of how often research is cited in other peer reviewed journals. More than half (53%) of the faked research papers had been written by a first author who was a “repeat offender.” This was the case in only one in five (18%) of the erroneous papers.
The average number of authors on all retracted papers was three, but some had 10 or more. Faked research papers were significantly more likely to have multiple authors. Each first author who was a repeat fraudster had an average of six co-authors, each of whom had had another three retractions.
“The duplicity of some authors is cause for concern,” comments the author. Retraction is the strongest sanction that can be applied to published research, but currently, “[it] is a very blunt instrument used for offences both gravely serious and trivial.”
Tags:Journal of Medical Ethics, PubMed, Retracted papers, science fraud, Scientific misconduct
Posted in Behaviour, Ethics, Medicine, Science, Scientific Fraud, scientific misconduct | 1 Comment »
November 14, 2010
Cricket debut at Asian Games :Image via Wikipedia
I am looking forward to the first time China plays a Test Match at Lords!
Now China has entered the cricket arena.
After Chinese spectators sat through a short video explaining the basics of the game, cricket made its Asian Games debut on Saturday. The crowd swiftly caught on and cheered every run on a slightly parched pitch as China’s women beat Malaysia on a sunny afternoon. “They were the best. In terms of their fielding they were very well drilled,” said Roger Golding, an English spectator in the crowd. “They didn’t miss a trick.”
China has underscored the state’s vast commitment to sports as a symbol of national pride by hiring top coaches and pumping money into less popular sports — and getting very good at them. “It was very strange at first but we’re slowly getting the hang of it,” said 19-year-old Chinese fan Li Zibo of cricket, hugely popular in Commonwealth nations but little-known in China. “It’s very fresh and we’ve never seen it before,” added Deng Xiaozhu, another young spectator who said he had been given a free ticket for the match.
A rapid-fire North American-style commentator was employed to liven up proceedings for the Chinese fans but stands were half-empty even though organisers had said that tickets for all weekend cricket had sold out.
Times of India:
Cricket was last seen at a major multi-sport event at the 1998 Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur, but was dropped for the next three editions in England, Australia and India. Its Asian Games debut has already been marred by India’s refusal to field men’s or women’s teams due to international and domestic commitments.
India, whose huge cricket-mad television audiences make them an attractive proposition for any organiser, are currently hosting New Zealand for a Test and one-day series.
Asia’s other big three – Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh – sent second-string teams for the Twenty20 tournament in Guangzhou, robbing the event of its star appeal.
The International Cricket Council, the sport’s ruling body, has identified China as one of the major new markets along with the United States for the development of the sport.
Tags:Asian Games, China, Cricket debut in Asian Games, International Cricket Council
Posted in Behaviour, Cricket, Sport | Comments Off on China enters the cricket arena, beat Malaysia by 55 runs
November 11, 2010
The 16th Asiad begins tomorrow (Friday) in Guangshou.
The organisers have published the rules that must be followed by all spectators prominently outside all stadiums:
AFP reports:
The list (of banned items), prominently displayed outside venues, includes whistles, lighters and matches, drink, food in large amounts that can be easily thrown, balls, rackets, frisbees and balloons.
A local government official confirmed that the plastic trumpet, (the Vuvuzela) often in garish colours, will be banned from all venues.
Zhang Youquan, deputy director of the Civilisation Office of the Guangzhou government, named the vuvuzela amid the list of banned items. According to a report by the Guangzhou Daily, spectators violating etiquette during the Games featuring 45 countries and regions competing in 42 sports will be advised by volunteers, and may be referred to security if they refuse to obey the rules.
The (vuvuzelas) have since (the World Cup) been banned by UEFA, European football’s governing body, and by several English Premier League club grounds, as well as at the Commonwealth Games last month in New Delhi.
Cheering is still allowed but should not get too boisterous!
But Chinese athletes will also have to be on their best behaviour. In a separate report AFP reports:
Thousands of athletes began settling in for the Asian Games Thursday, but for one man it has been a nightmare start after a humbling apology to China for calling fans “a bunch of dogs”.
The Olympic Council of Asia officially confirmed the 16th Asiad as the biggest ever with 9,704 athletes and nearly 5,000 team officials in the booming southern Chinese city. Among them are dozens of Olympic and world champions with Chinese superstars Liu Xiang (110m hurdles) and Lin Dan (badminton) and Japanese swimmer Kosuke Kitajima among the biggest names.
With athletes from 45 countries and regions competing for 476 gold medals, tensions are starting to build ahead of the opening ceremony on Friday and the official start of competition Saturday, when 28 titles will be decided.
While most athletes were enjoying the atmosphere, Chinese football goalkeeper Wang Dalei was not one of them after sparking outrage for calling home fans “morons” and “a bunch of dogs”. The highly-rated 21-year-old, linked with European champions Inter Milan and big-spending Manchester City, let loose on a micro-blogging site after being singled out for his failure to stop Japan’s second goal on Monday.
After being suspended by the Chinese delegation – and dropped for Wednesday’s 2-1 win over Kyrgyzstan – he issued an apology. Cai Jiadong, secretary general of the Chinese Asian Games delegation, said Wang’s action were “unsportsmanlike and irrational and hurt the feelings of Chinese soccer fans.”
The football competition got underway last Sunday, the only event to start ahead of the official opening of a mulit-sports event traditionally dominated by China, Japan and South Korea.
The Games run until November 27
Tags:16th Asiad, Asian Games, etiquette, Guangzhou, vuvuzela ban
Posted in Behaviour, China, Sport | Comments Off on Asian Games in China: Spectators must conform to etiquette but cheering still allowed!
November 11, 2010
Sydney Morning Herald.
KPMG and regulators are too stupid to notice if an asset is overvalued and investment bankers are leeches, say the characters in an online video lampooning the working culture inside international investment banks.
I have seen how the Big 4 accounting firms behave over the last 30 years and this video thought to be made by employees of an investment bank is not so far away from reality.
SMH continues:
BusinessDay is not implying these events took place, but our source claims the videos were made as an in joke by current staff of a large multinational investment bank for former employees. Another video pokes fun at job descriptions in the corporate world after one of the characters meets a “business accelerator”, who was “somewhat vague in his description of his services, but he was very compelling”.
“Investment bankers are generally perceived to be sharks,” the man then says.
“We are also leeches, but we are leeches with a lot of smaller leeches clinging to our backs,” the lady responds.
The videos end with investment bankers heading out for a typical after-work activity – drinking beer and playing ping pong.
Tags:Big 4 accounting firms, Business, ethics, Investment Banks, KPMG, Valuations
Posted in Behaviour, Business, Ethics | Comments Off on “KPMG are stupid” – How valuations are made
November 9, 2010
Retraction Watch reports on the retraction of a paper at Nature by the authors but where, once again, the lead author does not sign the retraction.
In this case the paper is:
The large-conductance Ca2+-activated K+channel is essential for innate immunity by Jatinder Ahluwalia, Andrew Tinker, Lucie H. Clapp, Michael R. Duchen, Andrey Y. Abramov, Simon Pope, Muriel Nobles & Anthony W. Segal, Nature 427, 853-858 (26 February 2004), doi:10.1038/nature02356; Received 18 July 2003; Accepted 20 January 2004.
The Retraction Notice reads
The authors wish to retract this Letter after the report of an inability to reproduce their results, later confirmed by another. The studies the authors then conducted led to an internal investigation by University College London, please see the accompanying Supplementary Information for details. The retraction has not been signed by Jatinder Ahluwalia.
The lead author is usually the researcher and the last name is usually that of the senior author. There have been a number of such cases recently where the authors retract a paper but where the lead author does not sign the retraction. The inference is that there has been some misconduct or alleged misconduct by the researcher which has been “discovered” by the other authors but where the alleged misconduct is not acknowledged by the lead author. (See the cases of Shane R Mayack and Hung-Shu Chang for example). Just the fact that some data can not be reproduced does not mean that misconduct has occurred. Experimental data can never be perfect. In addition to measurement errors and procedural errors, data may also be subject to errors of interpretation and analysis. In fact the scientific method requires the publication of such data – warts and all – which can then be tested by others and retraction would not be necessary or correct merely if different results were obtained later. Erroneous data does not have to be – and should not be – deleted from the record. A retraction – and especially by a multiplicity of contributing authors but not the lead author – carries a strong inference of misconduct.
This raises once again the question of roles and responsibilities between the different contributing authors, the reviewers and the journal editor for a published paper. Perhaps the number of retractions is at an “acceptable” level, but I am sure that the number of retractions must follow the “Iceberg Principle” and what is finally made visible can only be the tip of what must be there. The senior author must bear some responsibility and have some accountability for such events.
It seems to me that senior authors (as supervisors of the research reported) get away too lightly and merely pass the responsibility onto the researcher’s failings or his misconduct. They abdicate their responsibility for quality and integrity rather too easily. I would like to see a statement by the senior author whenever such a retraction is made “at the request of the authors”.
Tags:lead author responsibilities, Paper retractions, Science, scientific method, Scientific misconduct
Posted in Behaviour, Ethics, Science, scientific misconduct | 1 Comment »
November 9, 2010
Wattsupwiththat has the story.
The American Geophysical Union has issued a press release backing away from “a broad campaign to push back against congressional conservatives who have threatened prominent researchers with investigations and vowed to kill regulations to rein in man-made greenhouse gases” which was widely reported yesterday: See “Warriors of the Faith”: Global warming zealots declare jehad”
The Press Release is available at http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2010/2010-37.shtml.
AGU Logo
Inaccurate news reports misrepresent a climate-science initiative of the American Geophysical Union
WASHINGTON—An article appearing in the Los Angeles Times, and then picked up by media outlets far and wide, misrepresents the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and a climate science project the AGU is about to relaunch. The project, called Climate Q&A Service, aims simply to provide accurate scientific answers to questions from journalists about climate science.
“In contrast to what has been reported in the LA Times and elsewhere, there is no campaign by AGU against climate skeptics or congressional conservatives,” says Christine McEntee, Executive Director and CEO of the American Geophysical Union. “AGU will continue to provide accurate scientific information on Earth and space topics to inform the general public and to support sound public policy development.”..
“AGU is a scientific society, not an advocacy organization,” says climate scientist and AGU President Michael J. McPhaden. “The organization is committed to promoting scientific discovery and to disseminating to the scientific community, policy makers, the media, and the public, peer-reviewed scientific findings across a broad range of Earth and space sciences.”…….
The Army of the Warriors of the Faith has gone from 700 to 39 to zero in one day.
Tags:Alarmism, American Geophysical Union, ethics, Los Angeles Times, science fraud
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Climate, Science, Scientific Fraud | Comments Off on American Geophysical Union backs away from the “Warriors of the faith”
November 8, 2010
From The Telegraph:
The Natural History Museum has been warned that a forthcoming trip to find hundreds of new species in the remote forests of Paraguay could risk the lives of indigenous people and the scientists.
The 100-strong expedition, one of the largest undertaken by the museum in the last 50 years, is due to set off in the next few days to explore one of the most unknown regions of the world for one month.
However the museum has been warned by campaigners that the trip could cause “genocide” for isolated tribes.
The group Iniciativa Amotocodie, that protects local indigenous people, said groups of Ayoreo Indians in the area have never come into contact with westerners before. If they come across the expedition without preparation they could catch common western viruses that could wipe out the small groups in a matter of weeks.
A statement from the group, that has been circulated online, read: “If this expedition goes ahead we will not be able to understand why you prefer to lose human lives just because the English scientists want to study plants and animals. There is too much risk: the people die in the forest frequently from catching white people’s diseases – they get infected by being close. Because the white people leave their rubbish, their clothes, or other contaminated things. It’s very serious. It’s like genocide.”
The vast area of dry forest across parts of Bolivia, Argentina as well as Paraguay, known as the Gran Chaco, is the only place in South America outside the Amazon where there are uncontacted tribes. Until about 1950 it was thought there were around 5,000 people in the area but now there are thought to be less than 150 as people leave or die out.
Richard Lane, Director of Science at the NHM, confirmed that he had received a letter from a group representing indigenous groups. “Clearly the needs of indigenous people to remain uncontacted needs to be respected and we as an institution have always respected that,” he said.
With a hundred people involved in this expedition and tramping through the jungle it is hardly a case of being very discreet or showing very much respect for the indigenous tribes. (Does it really take one hundred people? Explorers used to go in twos.)
The naming of new species of plants in the name of protecting biodiversity seems to be rather more important than the lives and the way of life of these unfortunate tribes. That a body such as the Natural History Museum is prepared to risk genocide for the sake of finding and naming species that have not been recorded is astonishing. The species will carry on very well even if they receive no names and will probably be better off for not having any contact with the expedition (or perhaps circus would be more accurate).
The Natural History Museum would be well advised to cancel this vacation in the jungle or at least to reduce the numbers in the expedition to about two.
Tags:Genocide, Indigenous People, Natural History Museum, Paraguay
Posted in Behaviour, Biodiversity, Biology, Environment, Evolution, Social Science | 2 Comments »
November 8, 2010
The Chicago Tribune runs with the latest example of faith-based zealots declaring war!
Warriors of the Faith: image Jesus Christ Superstar
Faced with rising political attacks, hundreds of climate scientists are joining a broad campaign to push back against congressional conservatives who have threatened prominent researchers with investigations and vowed to kill regulations to rein in man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The still-evolving efforts reveal a shift among climate scientists, many of whom have traditionally stayed out of politics and avoided the news media. Many now say they are willing to go toe-to-toe with their critics, some of whom gained new power after the Republicans won control of the House in Tuesday’s election.
On Monday, the American Geophysical Union, the country’s largest association of climate scientists, plans to announce that 700 climate scientists have agreed to speak out as experts on questions about global warming and the role of man-made air pollution.
John Abraham of St. Thomas University in Minnesota, who last May wrote a widely disseminated response to climate change skeptics, is also pulling together a “climate rapid response team,” which includes scientists prepared to go before what they consider potentially hostile audiences on conservative talk radio and television shows.
“This group feels strongly that science and politics can’t be divorced and that we need to take bold measures to not only communicate science but also to aggressively engage the denialists and politicians who attack climate science and its scientists,” said Scott Mandia, professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College in New York.
This new Rapid Response Team has so far recruited 39 Warriors of the Faith!!!
A rapid-response team, however, is willing to delve into politics. In the week that Abraham and others have been marshaling the team, 39 scientists agreed to participate, including Richard Feely, senior scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; and Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.
“People who’ve already dug their heels in, we’re not going to change their opinions,” Mandia said. “We’re trying to reach people who may not have an opinion or opinion based on limited information.”
neela.banerjee@latimes.com
It is difficult to take any Global Warming “Science” or “Scientists” seriously as long they continue the shenanigans revealed in Climategate and behave like a bunch of religious fanatics. It remains to be seen how many real scientists will join these religious fanatics in committing scientific and political suicide.
Tags:American Geophysical Union, climate change, Climate rapid responce force, Climategate, science fraud
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Climate, Environment, Scientific Fraud | 2 Comments »
November 8, 2010
Grizzlies at Yellowstone: Image via Wikipedia
Grizzly bears in America’s western states are becoming increasingly fat and lazy as a result of increased contact with humans complain some conservationists according to The Telegraph !
But presumably the bears aren’t complaining and don’t have any problems with the good life.
A population boom among the bears has pushed them out of the Rocky Mountains and into the path of humans, where they have found plentiful food without the need for hunting.
Jamie Jonkel, a bear expert at Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, said that the grizzlys had learned gluttony and laziness from their human neighbours. He told the Guardian that the bears had “started living the good life”, eating corn and vegetables from fields and quickly getting “fatter and fatter”. The number of bears in Yellowstone national park has leapt to 603 in recent years, almost three times the number during the 1970s. The population boom has created competition over natural food sources, forcing some bears to look elsewhere for sustenance.
But the wild bears don’t always co-exist happily with humans. The number of attacks by bears has also increased, with two people being fatally mauled in Montana and Wyoming. Some 45 bears have also been shot as a result of wandering too close to hunters or wildlife officials, the paper said.
Tags:animal behaviour, Grizzlies and humans, Grizzly Bear, United States, Yellowstone National Park
Posted in Behaviour, Biodiversity, Wildlife | Comments Off on Grizzlies getting fat and lazy – the advantages of interacting with humans
