Archive for the ‘Transport’ Category

Will I be able to buy a “car which drives me” when I am 80?

March 20, 2026

When I bought my current car (hybrid Mercedes E) a few years ago I predicted that “it would be the last car I bought which I would drive. My next car would need to drive me”. Around 2028 would probably be the right time to get a new car. In two years I will be 80. I can already observe my reactions slowing, attention span shortening, hearing slowly deteriorating and muscle memory slackening. By then a “car which drives me” may well be a necessity.

The SAE International (Society of Automotive Engineers) standard J3016 defines six levels of driving automation, ranging from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full automation).

Level 0: No Automation 

  • The human driver is fully responsible for all aspects of driving, including steering, braking, and accelerating.
  • Systems: May include warnings (lane departure, blind spot) or momentary interventions like Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB).
  • Driver Role: Full-time performance of all driving tasks.

Level 1: Driver Assistance 

  • The vehicle features a single automated system that assists with either steering or speed (acceleration/braking), but not both at once.
  • Examples: Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) or Lane Keeping Assist.
  • Driver Role: Must monitor the road at all times and perform all other driving tasks.

Level 2: Partial Driving Automation 

  • The system can control both steering and speed simultaneously under certain conditions.
  • Examples: Tesla Autopilot, GM Super Cruise, and Ford BlueCruise.
  • Driver Role: Must remain fully engaged, monitor the environment, and be ready to take over instantly.

Level 3: Conditional Driving Automation 

  • The vehicle handles all driving tasks under specific, limited conditions (e.g., traffic jams), allowing the driver to disengage from monitoring.
  • Example: Mercedes-Benz DRIVE PILOT.
  • Driver Role: Must be available to resume control when requested. [5, 10, 11, 12]

Level 4: Full Automation

  • The vehicle operates autonomously within defined, geofenced zones, not requiring human intervention for driving tasks, as defined in SAE standards.
  • Examples: Robotaxis from companies like Waymo.
  • Driver Role: None required within the designated area.

Level 5: High Driving Automation

  • Level 5 vehicles require no human attentionand the driver is eliminated.
  • No steering wheels or acceleration/braking pedals, free from geofencing, able to go anywhere and do anything that an experienced human driver can do.
  • Fully autonomous cars are undergoing testing in several pockets of the world.
Currently, no truly “fully autonomous” cars (FSD or Level 5) that can drive anywhere without any human intervention are available for general sale. However, several come close and offer advanced semi-autonomous systems that could be called Supervised Fully Self Driving.
Tesla is the only manufacturer currently selling a system marketed as “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) across its entire consumer lineup. The videos I have seen demonstrate remarkable autonomy but it is formally (legally) still classified as Level 2 and must have constant driver supervision.

  • Tesla self-classifies its systems (including FSD Supervised) as SAE Level 2 in communications with regulators.
  • NHTSA investigations and documents treat Tesla’s systems as Level 2 partial automation, requiring a fully attentive driver.
  • Level 2 systems face fewer strict regulations than higher levels (e.g., no special exemptions needed for deployment, unlike Level 3+), which is why they are the strategic choice to get the necessary approvals while gaining customer acceptance.
File:Tesla logo.png - Wikimedia Commons
Tesla “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) (Supervised)
  • Available Models: All current Tesla production models, including:
    • Model 3
    • Model Y
    • Model S
    • Model X
    • Cybertruck
  • Key Capabilities: Navigation from point-to-point on city streets and highways, responding to traffic lights and stop signs, and automated lane changes.
  • Global Availability: Currently available in the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea.
Other Manufacturers with Advanced Autonomy
While only Tesla uses the “FSD” name, several other brands offer systems with similar or even more advanced (eyes-off) capabilities in specific regions:
File:Mercedes-Logo.svg - Wikimedia Commons
  • Mercedes-Benz (Level 3 – DRIVE PILOT): The first manufacturer to offer a certified Level 3 “eyes-off” system. 
    • Models: S-Class and EQS Sedan.
    • Availability: Limited to specific highways in California and Nevada (USA) and Germany.
  • BMW (Level 3 – Personal Pilot L3): Offers eyes-off driving at low speeds.
    • Model: 7-Series. 
    • Availability: Currently available only in Germany.
  • General Motors (Super Cruise): A robust hands-free highway system.
    • Models: Includes the Chevrolet Tahoe, GMC Hummer EV, and Cadillac Escalade.
    • Availability: North America (U.S. and Canada) on hundreds of thousands of miles of mapped highways.
  • Ford (BlueCruise): Hands-free highway driving.
    • Models: Mustang Mach-E, F-150, Expedition, and Explorer.
    • Availability: North America (U.S. and Canada).
Scheduled 2026 Models with High-Level Autonomy
Several specialized Level 4 vehicles (designed to drive without human intervention in defined zones) are slated for release or expanded private ownership in 2026:
  • Tesla Cybercab: A dedicated robotaxi without steering wheels or pedals, targeting volume production in 2026.
  • Tensor Robocar: Marketed as the world’s first personal Level 4 autonomous vehicle, built in partnership with VinFast and targeting the U.S., Europe, and UAE.
  • Lucid Gravity: Expected to offer Level 4 capabilities for private purchase through a partnership with Nuro.

If I were buying a car today I think the only available choice would be a Tesla (probably 80/20 in favour of a Model Y over a Cybertruck).

In 2 years though it could be a choice between a Mercedes and a Tesla (20/80 ?).

 

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Posted in AI, automation, Automobiles, Behaviour, FSD, Tesla, Robotics, Automation levels, Technology, Transport | Leave a Comment »

Having no pilot will soon be less risky than having a pilot

March 28, 2014

The cockpit of the future will have one pilot and a dog. The pilot is there to watch the systems and make sure everything is operating correctly. The dog is there to bite the pilot if he tries to touch anything.

Much of the speculation about the MH370 disappearance is about the role of the pilots in whatever transpired. But whether they were heroes or villains or under duress or on a suicide trip, they achieved the changes in the flight path by reprogramming the on-board, flight computer.

For a commercial flight all the pre-flight instrument checks and the programming and the reprogramming where necessary, can be accomplished in advance or remotely. The role of the pilot nowadays seems most intense during taxiing on the ground and at take-off. Thereafter he does not need to play much part. He is still – it is thought – indispensable if an emergency situation were to arise. But even that perception is only true for unforeseen emergencies. For all situations which can be foreseen and then are pre-defined emergencies, the automatic controls would react faster and with more certainty than any human intervention. I am not sure if control systems are already sufficiently sophisticated to cope with all situations on the ground. But even here it is human error which is the main cause of incidents. Collisions on the ground are usually due to some incompetence on the part of pilots or of the ground traffic control.

But it is just a matter of time and we are getting close to the point where the risks of having a pilot will outweigh the risks of not having a pilot!

For military attacks and even for surveillance we are already at the point where pilotless craft pose less risk – for the attacker – than manned aircraft. Drones for military and civil applications are proliferating. In modern fighter jets, the pilot’s survival now limits some of the design and performance parameters of the aircraft. Altitude, speed, maneuverability, rate of climb, g-forces are all constrained by what the pilot can survive. Of course some new risks would be introduced with pilotless, commercial aircraft. With aircraft under remote control, hijacking would become a matter of hacking into the flight computer. On the other hand, the possibility of in-flight hijacking by a passenger would be eliminated. Drunken or suicidal pilots would pose no risk – but computers “drunk” on contaminated code might constitute a new risk. The risk with unmanned cargo aircraft would then be just the possibility of crashing into inhabited areas. Unforeseen emergencies remain an unknown unknown. But even here, the solution will lie with how “smart” the control computers can be made. My car can already correct for a skid faster than I can. It can park in a tight spot neater than I can. Some more “smartness” and automation will also be required in the air traffic control systems. The security and integrity of communications to on-board computers and how and when over-rides will be permitted will pose their challenges.

Driverless cars are coming. I would guess that in 20 years the road infrastructure will allow the majority of cars being sold to be driverless. There are developments in the infrastructure of airports and air traffic control systems which will be necessary and there will be a psychological barrier to overcome, but pilotless commercial aircraft will also – I think – start flying within 20 years. Cargo planes probably first  – before passengers are ready to take the plunge.

Airbus future

Airbus future

Related: Future by Airbus

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Posted in Aviation, Technology, Transport | 2 Comments »

Androids will dream of this electric “J”

November 22, 2013
Android on a Kawasaki J

Android on a Kawasaki J

It will never go into production.

It’s electric (note the artistic and symbolic flashes of green), but they are sticking to a NiMH battery rather than a lithium-ion fire hazard.

It’s what some androids will dream of instead of electric sheep.

It’s the Kawasaki J-concept motor cycle being displayed at the 2013 Tokyo Motor Show.

DigitalTrends: The Kawasaki J technically has three wheels, but in Sport Mode the two front wheels are pushed together, and the entire machine hunkers down to lower the center of gravity. In Comfort Mode, the stance is raised and the front wheels separate, giving the ride a more upright position that is, well, more comfortable.

Instead of handlebars, steering is accomplished with two levers, one attached to each of the front wheels. It’s a decidedly Steampunk mechanism, compared to the bike’s Cyberpunk styling.

In three-wheeled Comfort Mode, the J concept looks like a scooter used by mall cops in the futuristic Grid city from Tron. In maximum-attack Sport Mode, it looks completely otherworldly.

Powering the Kawasaki J is an electric motor hooked to a nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery pack. The packaging advantages of an electric powertrain were probably needed to accomplish the J’s transformation stunt. Note that it doesn’t use the lithium-ion batteries that are found in most electric cars and plug-in hybrids.

The Kawasaki J looks awesome on the show stand, and it won’t be going anywhere else. Kawasaki has no plans to put it into production. That’s just as well; it’ll save owners from having to try to explain it to their neighbors.

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Posted in Automobiles, Development, Technology, Transport | Comments Off on Androids will dream of this electric “J”