Archive for the ‘US’ Category

Clinton – artificial, Trump – genuine?

September 8, 2015

Sanders has now gone ahead of Clinton in one poll. Donald Trump maintains his lead.

The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton’s strategists will now ensure that she shows “more humour and heart” and I wondered if this was not one of the key differences of perception between Trump and Clinton (and all other “conventional” politicians). Clinton and other politicians have strategists and aides who analyse and create an artificial persona that their principal is then supposed to put on show. The perception then is that whatever they say or do is then in support of this artificial persona, which has been calculated as being the most likely to gain voter support. With Trump however the perception is that you get to see the real Trump – warts and all. Real beats artificial.

Add to this the perception that Trump needs no funding from sponsors – looking for their pound of flesh – and is beholden to no one. I begin to think that what is driving the support for Trump is the voter fatigue with conventional politicians who are calculatedly artificial and who are in hock to their donors. Trump’s convictions are perceived to be real while those of others are seen to be “bought” and artificial.

Nobody doubts, even when Trump displays his ignorance in some areas – especially of foreign affairs – that he can always surround himself with knowledgeable people. And nobody doubts either that if he picks the wrong people, he knows how to fire them. It is his real track record being pitted against the implied erudition of others.

I see also that Paul Krugman is generally scornful of the economic policies of all the GOP candidates and especially those of Bush. In his latest column he puts Trump as the best of a bad lot. But one look at Trump’s real billions render all Krugman’s jargon and all his (failed) theories utterly toothless. In one phrase, Krugman basically stands for increased public spending. In fact, in a battle for minds between Trump’s real billions and Krugman’s artificial theories, the real billions on the bottom line carry much more credibility. Krugman stands for debt while Trump stands for real wealth.

If a perception that being “real” is what trumps being “artificial” is the theme now driving US voters, then Trump is going to be around for a long time yet. Conventional, artificial politicians (GOP and Democrat) are going to have a tough time against people fed-up with being sold made-up story lines.

NYT:  ……. In extensive interviews by telephone and at their Brooklyn headquarters last week, Mrs. Clinton’s strategists acknowledged missteps — such as their slow response to questions about her email practices — and promised that this fall the public would see the sides of Mrs. Clinton that are often obscured by the noise and distractions of modern campaigning. 

They want to show her humor. The self-effacing kind (“The hair is real, the color isn’t,” she said of her blond bob recently, taking note of Mr. Trump) has played better than her sarcastic retorts, such as when she asked if wiping a computer server was done “with a cloth.” …

They want to show her heart, like the time she comforted former drug addicts in a school meeting room in New Hampshire.

But the widespread presumption of Hillary Clinton as being untrustworthy, cold, calculating and not very effective (Libya) is firmly ingrained. To now try and show her as being a warm, funny, “nice” but efficient person is not going to fly.

Perhaps the paradigm shift in the 2016 election will be that “real” trumps “artificial”.

S & W gun sales have boomed since Obama became President

August 28, 2015

From Business Insider:

S&W says business boomed after Obama became president

guns

Obama blames Congress of course. But the reality is that he has not shown much initiative on any gun control policy which he could even try to carry through Congress.

And just gun control would not address behaviour.

 

Trump’s real appeal is that he is beholden to no one

August 26, 2015

The more people he upsets, the stronger becomes Donald Trump’s showing in the polls. He probably would not even deny that he is playing the role of “clown” in the political circus of the US Presidential election. Trying to analyse his appeal is confounding most of the pundits and the main-stream media are torn between wanting to ridicule him but knowing that his appeal feeds on being ridiculed by the “establishment”.

But I was struck by this analysis in Politico of liberals who see some good in Trump. The idea of Trump being influenced by campaign contributions is patently laughable. No one even thinks about criticising Trump for being beholden to anyone. Perhaps that is the real secret of his inexplicable appeal. He may be a clown but …… He says it like he sees it. He pays no attention to political correctness. He does not apologise. He cannot be bought. And, above all, he is beholden to no one.

Politico: Meet the Liberals who love Trump

It’s become fashionable on the left to sneer at the very sound of Donald Trump’s name; Bernie Sanders more or less captured the mood when he dismissed Trump as “an embarrassment” in a recent interview. But there is one contingent of liberals who take a very different view. They believe, cheerfully, that Trump is nothing less than the second coming—of campaign finance reform. …..

…. As pundits search for the source of Trump’s resilient appeal, reformers say they’ve long known the answer: the constant emphasis on how his staggering wealth immunizes him from insider influence. It has arguably now become the campaign’s most salient theme. “I don’t need anybody’s money. I’m using my own money,”  ………. Then came the debates, where Trump cleverly positioned satellite candidates around Planet Donald by recounting how he had purchased their fealty. “You know, most of the people on this stage I’ve given … a lot of money,” Trump said, adding, “I was a businessman. I give to everybody. When they call, I give. And you know what? When I need something from them, two years later, three years later, I call them, and they are there for me. And that’s a broken system.”

……… “That explains why there’s so much amazing support for Trump,” added Lessig (Harvard Law School professor Lawrence Lessig). “Americans are willing to put up with his outrageous views because they look at this guy and say, Holy crap. Here it is. A politician not beholden to these crony funders. That’s the gift.”

The Republican nomination battle is already providing much more entertainment than I would have expected. And it is entirely due to Trump. Part of the appeal is that Trump is not even beholden to the Republican establishment. It is not inconceivable that he could dump them. I also see the Democrats regretting that they are stuck with the old, staid and boring figures of Clinton, Sanders and possibly Biden and Gore. They have nobody who compares in terms of outrageous charisma. Almost as if they are looking backwards while Trump charges towards some unknown, possibly dangerous, but brand new, playing field.

Trump has more support on immigration than political correctness allows

August 19, 2015

Good clowns – in amongst their antics – have the ability to hit the right nerve, to trigger something primal in our emotions.

Donald Trump is no doubt a “clown”. The politically correct media and politicians are pouring scorn on his immigration positions. But he may be tapping in to something felt strongly by many but which they have been unable to express for fear of being politically incorrect. He may be reflecting the mood in the country – and not just among Republicans – far better than anybody dares to give him credit for:

Rasmussen Reports:

As far as voters are concerned – and not just Republicans –  Donald Trump has a winning formula for fighting illegal immigration.

My take aways from the report:

  1. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 70% of Likely Republican Voters agree with the GOP presidential hopeful that the United States should build a wall along the Mexican border to help stop illegal immigration.
  2. Ninety-two percent (92%) of Republicans agree that the United States should deport all illegal immigrants who have been convicted of a felony in this country.
  3. Among all likely voters, 51% favor building a wall on the border.
  4. Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters disagree with the current federal policy that says a child born to an illegal immigrant here is automatically a U.S. citizen.
  5. Just 34% favor President Obama’s plan to protect up to five million illegal immigrants from deportation.
  6. … most voters want the border with Mexico secured to prevent further illegal immigration before there is any talk of amnesty. In May, 63% said gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living in the United States, the highest level of support for border control since December 2011. 
  7. Sizable majorities in nearly all demographic categories favor deporting illegal immigrants convicted here of felony crimes. But Democrats are less enthusiastic about such a policy than Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party are. Only 30% of Democrats favor building a wall, compared to 57% of unaffiliated voters.
  8. Trump took a lot of criticism last month from Democrats and other Republican presidential hopefuls over his candid remarks about the criminality of many illegal immigrants, but most voters agree with Trump that illegal immigration increases serious crime in this country.

Trump’s Republican rivals are gradually realising that the agenda is being set by Trump.

I wonder how long it will be before the main stream media jump on the band-wagon. If they do start covering him more seriously and then perhaps even backing him, then my reading is that Trump could “go viral”  and walk away with the nomination.

Isn’t it rich …..

August 18, 2015

The clowns have it so far.

Donald Trump is being taken as a “serious clown” and so is Jeremy Corbyn in the UK Labour party. Even the Democrats are beginning to realise that they need to lighten the staid, boring and almost too earnest bill of fare they have to offer. They need a clown.

In the US, Donald Trump is setting the agenda from the front and his act is beginning to attract even his rivals. Scott Walker and other Republicans are jumping on Trump’s immigration train (children of illegals born in the US should not have automatic citizenship and The Wall). Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal have also hopped onto this train. Even the Washington Post is beginning to analyse Trump’s positions – as they gather flesh – a little more seriously.

In the UK Labour party leadership fight, Corbyn the clown is so far ahead that his nearest rival (also union supported), Andy Burnham, is now finding that he actually does not disagree with Corbyn all that much. It looks like the Unions will win and that the Labour party is starting down the road to oblivion.

But the Democrats are looking more jaded each day. Hilary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Al Gore are all coming off as “has-beens and past-its”. Sanders has tried to take on the mantle of a clown but does not quite make it. They desperately need someone to capture the Democratic imagination. Where are the clowns?

The Trump phenomenon continues and the latest Fox poll puts him at 25% and his nearest rival 13 points behind.

WaPo:

The ideas once languished at the edge of Republican politics, confined to think tanks and no-hope bills on Capitol Hill. To solve the problem of illegal immigration, truly drastic measures were necessary: Deport the undocumented en masse. Seize the money they try to send home. Deny citizenship to their U.S.-born children.

Now, all of those ideas have been embraced by Donald Trump, the front-runner in the Republican presidential race, who has followed up weeks of doomsaying about illegal immigrants with a call for an unprecedented crackdown.

On Monday, Trump’s hard turn was already influencing the rest of the GOP field. In Iowa, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker also began to call for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, echoing a longtime Trump demand. Walker said the separation barrier between Israel and the Palestinian territories is proof that the concept could work here.

Walker also seemed to echo Trump by questioning “birthright citizenship,” the constitutional provision that grants citizenship to anyone born in this country. After a reporter asked if birthright citizenship should be ended, Walker said: “I think that’s something we should — yeah, absolutely, going forward.”

The Hilary Clinton momentum is dissipating away with her e-mails. Even the rabidly supportive Huffington Post is getting concerned:

Things are getting weird when even Al Gore is thinking of getting into the Democratic presidential race, which is turning into a last hurrah for the Baby Boomers and their tad-older camp counselors.

Hillary Clinton, permanently punctilious, has done everything right: She put her HQ in Brooklyn, hired savvy digital/social/big data nerds, raised a ton of dough, gave substantive, well-thought-out speeches and flooded early primary and caucus states with organizers. She’s still the default bet for the Democratic nomination: national polls show her with a fat 36 percent lead.

And yet all is not well in Hillaryland. Polls also indicate that voters now view her as untrustworthy. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whose DeLorean time machine is in overdrive, is drawing colossal crowds and, according to one poll, now leads the former secretary of state in New Hampshire. Vice President Joe Biden, who had previously said “no way,” is now sounding serious about jumping in. So, we are told, is Gore, who was warning of environmental doom as far back as the ‘60s.

Meanwhile the Guardian reports:

Andy Burnham has made an explicit plea to anyone thinking of voting for Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader to pick him instead for what he described as “the worst job in politics”, saying there was “a good deal of common ground” between him and the veteran leftwinger.

Sondheim again –

 Isn’t it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.

Trump’s cabinet

August 15, 2015

A US Presidential election is one of my entertainment highlights. But next year it runs the risk of becoming an exceedingly boring affair if it becomes “another Clinton, another Bush”. But it could be the most entertaining ever if Trump is there as the GOP candidate or as an independent (and the GOP risks becoming obsolete if Trump runs as an independent). The silent majority of the “fed up” – not just Republicans but in the country – could be big enough to bring in the clowns.

But what could be even more entertaining than such an election would be watching Trump choose his cabinet as the President of the US. I can just see him interviewing prospective candidates – and who wouldn’t be a fly on the wall for those interviews. Imagine if he makes that all part of a reality show. “The West Wing” would be eclipsed. Imagine if viewers/voters could ring in to express support or rejection of a Foreign Secretary or Defense Secretary? Then the top 50 in his administration (by annual salary including bonuses) would be subject to a monthly performance review with Key Performance Indicators being published. The lowest performer each month would be fired  – on live Television of course.

If one pays any attention to the nonsense speculation (here for example) we could have a cabinet which included

  • Kim Kardashian, Vice President
  • Sarah Palin, Secretary of (?) Defense
  • Trey Gowdy, Attorney General
  • Ron Paul, Fed Chairman
  • Jesse Ventura, Secretary of State
  • Ivanka Trump, Secretary of the Treasury
  • Carlos Irwin Estevez (Charlie Sheen), Secretary of Health and Human Services
  • Omarosa Manigault, CoS
  • Warren Buffet, Henry Kravis, Jack Welch, and Carl Icahn, would be senior advisors and members of his selection/interview panel.

John McCain would not be invited.

Foreign policy under Trump could be fascinatingly simple. Mexico would be made to pay for building the wall. He would “bomb the hell out of Iraq and ISIS” and take over Iraqi oil – “We shouldn’t be there but since we are, we should take the oil”. A Twitter war would be started with Iran. Israel would be a US friend on Facebook. Palestine would be defriended. China would be fined for hacking and forced to accept a Trump Hotels franchise in all major cities.

It is not clear if Las Vegas will replace the White House or Camp David.

But that is all just fantasy – maybe wishful thinking. I am resigned to “another Clinton another Bush” and potentially the most boring US Presidential election in my lifetime.

Obituaries of the Trump campaign are wishful thinking, premature and exaggerated

August 10, 2015

That most of the US media want the Trump campaign to die is fairly clear. That the Republican party establishment are in a little panic about Trump becoming the Republican nominee or – even worse – being an independent third candidate is also fairly clear. In fact, for the Republican party an independent Trump could be worse than a Trump nomination. There has been more than a whiff of wishful thinking in the headlines over the last 3 days. But the latest NBC post-debate poll shows that the anti-Trump spinning and even the Megyn Kelly hullabaloo have done nothing to dent his commanding lead in the polls.

TPM:

Despite a debate in which Fox moderators repeatedly attacked him and three days of hostile press coverage which came after it, Donald Trump remains in a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a poll released Sunday evening by NBC News. The results confound weekend press coverage suggesting Trump’s campaign was foundering.

The online poll was conducted by the Analytics Unit of NBC News and the University of Pennsylvania’s Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies over a 24 hour period from Friday evening into Saturday, thus coming entirely after the debate on Thursday evening.

According to poll, Trump has the support of 23% of Republican voters, followed by Ted Cruz with 13%, Ben Carson with 11%, Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina tied at 8% and Jeb Bush and Scott Walker at 7%. The poll showed Trump essentially unchanged from a poll taken one week ago in which he garnered 22% support.

Numerous commentators speculated over the weekend that Trump’s public spat with Fox News host Megyn Kelly might finally spell the end of his surge in the polls. Top Republicans openly cheered his apparent downfall. But NBC’s weekend poll suggests that assumption was misplaced.

The media headlines were quite clear in their hopes. For some reason the UK Guardian is very perturbed about Trump and is quite openly anti-Trump in its wishful thinking (though it is schizophrenic in its views about the UK’s very own left-wing clown in Jeremy Corbyn):

  1. Washington Post – GOP leaders say erratic attacks hurt Trump
  2. New York Times – Donald Trump Remains Defiant on News Programs Amid G.O.P. Backlash
  3. CNN – Donald Trump’s ‘blood’ comment about Megyn Kelly draws outrage
  4. CNBC – Trump dumped from conservative event
  5. CBS News – Republicans chastise Trump
  6. The Guardian – Donald Trump jab at Megyn Kelly may be beginning of end for GOP frontrunner

But a formally “recognised clown” – as Trump clearly is – has an “authorisation” to be as politically incorrect as he wishes. He is now capturing the attention of a large section of the disaffected Republican electorate and attacking him for being politically incorrect can only be counter-productive. Any candidates who wish now to displace him need to create their own independent story-lines which can live their own lives.

As in any show, a clown is not necessarily just a B-act. An accepted clown is not susceptible to ridicule. I suspect that Trump cannot be shot down by the conventional bullets of political correctness. He now can only be over-taken by a “faster” candidate with a better story.

Trump won, resoundingly (and he feeds on pc attacks)

August 8, 2015

The media, every Democrat, his Republican challengers and even the Republican establishment are trying to represent, in one way or another, that the clown Donald Trump did not win the debate. They are in denial, and just cannot admit that he won the event by ignoring debate. He changed the game to be to be about the occasion and not about winning debating points. Twenty four million tuned in to the event.

HuffPoIn terms of total viewers, the debate was the highest-rated non-sports cable telecast of all time, according to Nielsen data — with the staggering viewership shattering expectations of what was already a highly-anticipated event. The telecast also made history for Fox: it was the most highly-rated broadcast of the network’s 20-year history, according to CNN Money

That level of interest is entirely to Trump’s credit. He was chasing exposure – not some brownie debating points – and he won. Resoundingly. Neither the moderators nor his challengers had any idea of how to handle him. The moderator Megyn Kelly attacked him with a barrage of political correctness. How stupid was that? She came off as being sanctimonious and he could demonstrate – again – “that he speaks his mind”.

For the first time in many years I observe in the US that “speaking your mind” is beginning to trump being politically correct. (Sorry). And not just in the US. I suspect the pendulum is beginning to swing and there is a realisation – globally – that sanctimonious, self-righteous, “political correctness” is not an acceptable excuse to avoid asking the questions you don’t want to hear the answer to.

Donald Trump has formally taken on the role of being “clown”. And in a circus the role of “clown” is not so unimportant. In fact the “clown” is very often the star of the show. Trying to make a “clown” look ridiculous is doomed to help the clown perform his act. Trying to get a clown to be serious only demonstrates stupidity and can only backfire. A clown does not need to be politically correct. In fact to be politically incorrect is not just expected of him, it his calling-card. He feeds on the indignation of others. The others and the media are just becoming his “straight men”, and “straight men” are never the star event.

I observe that nearly all the media – and even the Republican media – are playing down what Trump achieved. But they are playing into his hands. Erick Erickson of RedState has “disinvited” him from the Red State gathering. He is by his own admission being politically correct in his own way. But he is trying to make Red State part of the establishment and the disinvitation too only plays into Trump’s hands.

The post debate polls will be available next week and I will not be at all surprised to see Trump well ahead of the others again. The one post-debate poll I have seen shows him not just the clear winner but so far ahead of the others as to be embarrassing – for the others.

Newsmax: Here is a breakdown of the poll results:

  • Donald Trump: 38 percent
  • Ted Cruz: 15.5 percent
  • Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson: 10.2 percent
  • Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 9.7 percent
  • Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 9.3 percent
  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 4.9 percent
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 4.5 percent
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 3.5 percent
  • Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 2.5 percent
  • New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 1.4 percent

So far, the clown has it.

Will Trump or Corbyn step down?

July 24, 2015

The clowns went in when the Labour party in the UK and the Republicans in the US both found their own audiences were deserting them. Just some light entertainment thought the aspirants for leadership. In the UK some actually nominated the clown to “widen appeal” and liven things up, thinking he was a no-hoper.

But the respective electorates are in no mood for the clowns to be just a relieving act before the main show. They are inclined to make the comedy act the main show.

The clowns are still in the lead.

But what was initial amusement at Trump’s antics and Corbyn’s naive Marxism is now becoming a nervous panic within their respective parties. It sounds like the nervous giggling before the catastrophe. It is beginning to sink in that a Corbyn win could split the UK Labour party and keep both parts in the wilderness for decades to come. In the US, the other Republican hopefuls are all united in castigating Trump. But the disillusioned Republican voters in the country are staying with the comedy act. If the opposition to Trump continues, he could go it alone and that would fracture the Republican vote so fundamentally that they could be kept out of the White House for the next 4 terms.

Could Trump or Corbyn step aside and save their parties?

Their parties probably need them to. But that will not happen unless there are other credible and convincing candidates for the leadership position. And such figures are conspicuous by their absence, both in the UK and in the US. The Labour party only has lightweights to offer and the Republicans only some less accomplished clowns. The Republican field of candidates must be quite depressing for party members.

Still, there is little doubt that the clowns are livening things up.

Lack of ethics institutionalised at American Psychological Association

July 11, 2015

That members of the American Psychological Association actively participated in and helped to design the torture programme during the Bush era has been known for some time. But for over 10 years the APA has shielded its members and covered up their involvement. In fact they have had an Ethics Officer whose primary job has been to conceal the lack of ethics. The New York Times has details about a new investigation report which focuses on the failings of the members of the American Psychological Association.

NYT Editorial:

The first detailed accounts of the brutal interrogation program the Central Intelligence Agency established after the Sept. 11 attacks noted that psychologists and other medical professionals played key roles in abetting the torture of terrorism suspects. However, much about their role and their degree of responsibility in one of the most macabre and shameful chapters of American history has remained shrouded in secrecy.

A new report by a former federal prosecutor, first disclosed by James Risen in The Times, contains astonishing, disturbing details. It found that top members of the American Psychological Association, the largest professional organization of psychologists, colluded with officials at the Pentagon and the C.I.A. to keep the group’s ethics policies in line with tactics that interrogators working for the agency and the military were employing. …….. 

On Friday, Physicians for Human Rights justifiably called on the Department of Justice to begin a criminal investigation into the psychologists association’s role in the Bush administration’s torture program.

The Obama administration has so far refused to prosecute the torturers. As more evidence about this program comes to light, that position becomes increasingly indefensible.

There are no “good guys” if the behaviour of the “good guys” is no different to that of the “bad guys”. And the degree of “badness” is worse, I think, when the bad behaviour is institutionalised and not just that of rogue individuals.