Archive for the ‘US’ Category

2012 US Presidential elections: A visitor’s perceptions

May 31, 2011

After a 2 week visit to the US (New York and Boston) it is difficult to resist the temptation to believe that one has become an expert on all things US!!!

But perceptions are relevant and are probably based on much more than just the observations of the last 2 weeks. In simple terms my perceptions are:

  1. There is no credible opposition to Barack Obama within the Democrats even if he has not quite lived up to the expectations of “Yes we can”. But he has not done anything considered by Democrats to be drastically wrong. The Health Care Bill was passed though it has not (will not) deliver all that was hoped. And above all – even if he did not close Guantanamo – he got Osama!!! But he is less of a leader and more of a follower than I thought he would be.
  2. The economy is still floundering and jobs are still hard to come by. But it cannot get worse and in the two years till the Presidential election the inbuilt American resilience can only make it better (whatever Obama may or may not do).
  3. The Republican candidates – so far – are very unimpressive as potential Presidential candidates.
  4. In many cases they are quite bizarre. That Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, Michelle Malkin and their ilk could or can even be considered as serious contenders reveals that a large section of the Republican supporters are not merely anti-intellectual but also anti-thought and their world view only extends as far as sound-bites on Fox news takes them.
  5. The tea-party movement and the right-wing of the Republican party seem quite similar in nationalist aspirations and ideology and insularity to the National Socialist electorate Hitler appealed to. But Michelle Malkin is actually closer to Hitler than Sarah Palin.
  6. Some of Sarah Palin’s shenanigans over the weekend suggest she is more interested in promoting brand Palin and her future earnings than in anything else. Even any eventual candidacy would be to make money.
  7. Romney is the front runner and he would certainly not be less competent than George Bush and probably less susceptible to being a puppet in the hands of a Dick Cheney. But he may be too intellectual for the right-wing of the Republican party. Pawlenty seems to be a non-person but that is mainly image.
  8. What political issues would be relevant in 2012 will change but right now the Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot over Health Care. If they continue attacking Medicare they could lose this election already within the next few months.
  9. Energy policy is the Democratic Achilles heel. It is beginning to sink in even among the “do-gooders” that fossil fuels and nuclear energy are the main-stay which actually permits the fiddling around with and subsidising of solar and wind power. It is also beginning to be understood that “climate change” is a political ideology and not a science. I cannot see Energy policy alone winning the election for the Republicans but I can see the Democrats losing it if they allow the fungus of “going green” to spread too far.
But the next 12 months will be fascinating. If the Republicans have not found a credible candidate of substance by this time next year Obama will win his second term easily and will be back in 2012.

First Observations

May 16, 2011

Visiting New York  after a break of 3 years.

  1. Changing planes at Munich far more effective and smooth than at Frankfurt. Huge line at JFK immigration but completed immigration and customs in less than 25 minutes. On-line ESTA registration together with machine readable passports actually works.  Entire process was quite painless.
  2. Warm but drizzling in Manhattan. Traffic was horrendous and almost gridlocked on a Sunday afternoon. Our taxi driver demonstrated the ability to accelerate to 70 mph and come to a screeching halt at the traffic lights at the end of every block. But he never managed to get more than one vehicle ahead of the sedate bus he was following for over 10 miles.
  3. All news channels are covering the arrest of the head of the IMF on rape charges. True or not, Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s aspirations in French politics would normally be ended. But one never knows. The macho image has not hurt Berlusconi! And Sarkozy clearly believes that a macho image helps him with the French voters!!
  4. Coverage of the Louisiana flooding was not as overwhelming that I expected it would be and I had to surf through many channels to find some coverage.

Space shuttle Discovery sets of on her last mission

February 25, 2011

Shuttle Discovery sets out on last voyage

Space shuttle Discovery

Space shuttle Discovery lifts off from the Cape Canaveral. Photograph: Chris O'Meara/AP

The US shuttle Discovery has launched from the Kennedy Space Center for the last time. The orbiter roared into a bright blue Florida sky, leaving the pad at 1653 local time (2153 GMT).

Its 11-day mission will see it deliver a new store room and a sophisticated humanoid robot to the International Space Station (ISS). Only two further flights remain by Endeavour and Atlantis, which Nasa is trying to see concluded this year.

The orbiter fleet is then expected to retire to museums.

….. First launched in 1984, this is its 39th outing. When it lands back on Earth in nearly two weeks’ time it will have covered a cumulative career distance of 230 million km (143 million miles). That’s further than the distance from the Earth to the Sun (149 million km).

Once the shuttles are retired, the plan is for US astronauts to fly to the space station on Russian Soyuz rockets until perhaps the middle of the decade.

Related:

Space shuttle Discovery prepares for final mission

Surprise! Boeing wins $35 billion tanker order

February 25, 2011

Airbus will no doubt protest but if they really expect to displace Boeing for the US Air Force  tankers they are living in a dream world. They should have seen the writing on the wall when the whole contract was re-tendered even after they had won the order for 179 aircraft in 2008. There is no US politician who would have the courage to place such an order outside of the US.

Bloomberg reports:

Boeing Co., the sole supplier of aerial refueling tankers to the U.S. Air Force since 1948, beat European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. for a $35 billion program to build 179 new tankers, the Pentagon said yesterday.

It was the Chicago-based company’s third try at the contract since Congress and the Air Force first proposed the tanker replacement program in late 2001 — a contest in which Boeing was viewed as an underdog, said an analyst.

“Boeing’s victory was a major upset, and not at all what the industry was expecting,” Richard Aboulafia, a military aircraft analyst with the Fairfax, Virginia-based Teal Group, said in an e-mail.

Boeing will manufacture basic 767-model aircraft in Everett, Washington, and convert them into tankers in Wichita, Kansas, during the first stage of a three-part Air Force program stretching decades to replace its tanker fleet.

The initial contract for the development phase was valued at $3.5 billion. The entire first phase covers 13 production lots through 2027. The Pratt & Whitney unit of United Technologies Corp. will provide the engines. Boeing says the win will create and sustain 50,000 jobs among 800 suppliers in 40 states.

Related:

$35 billion US tanker decision imminent: Boeing and Airbus prepare to protest a loss

$35 billion US tanker decision imminent: Boeing and Airbus prepare to protest a loss

February 24, 2011

The much awaited winner of the order for 179 tanker aircraft for the US Air Force worth about $35 billion will be announced after markets close this evening (Thursday 24th February) reports Reuters (via the NYT):

KC-767-200ER/300ER is a credible replacement for the KC-135R: image ausairpower.net

The decision, expected after U.S. financial markets close, marks another pivotal point in the Air Force’s nearly decade-long struggle to begin replacing its 50-year-old KC-135 Stratotankers, which refuel fighter planes and other aircraft in mid-flight to extend the range of military operations.

But analysts say there is no guarantee an epic industry battle will end there. The losing bidder is likely to file a protest that could delay — or overturn — the contract.

The competition to supply 179 air-to-air tankers has sparked sporadic transatlantic tensions and clashes in Congress among lawmakers eager to bring jobs to their states. …. Now, the Pentagon is close to giving its decision on the third attempt to replace aging Eisenhower-era tanker planes and senior defense officials say the choice between Boeing and EADS could come on Thursday.

A330 MRTT tanker (EADS)

A330 MRTT tanker (EADS)

Both Boeing and EADS, through its North American subsidiary, are offering specially adapted versions of existing twin-engined wide-body passenger jets: the Boeing 767 and the Airbus A330.

Analysts widely expect the losing side to file a protest against the decision with the Government Accountability Office, the arm of Congress which rules on federal contract disputes.

The Air Force has been trying since 2001 to begin replacing its Boeing-built KC-135 tankers.

An initial $23.5 billion plan to lease and then buy 100 modified Boeing 767s as tankers, fell apart in 2004. …. EADS, partnered with Northrop Grumman Corp, won a 179-plane deal in February 2008, only to have it canceled after government auditors upheld parts of a protest by Boeing.

Northrop subsequently pulled out, leaving the European aerospace and defense company to bid alone.


Maryland and Washington begin to sound like Delhi

February 6, 2011

In India, planned blackouts are used commonly for the management of electricity load. Delhi is used to regular black-outs and there is is no likelihood in the near future that the availability and quality of electric power will be sufficient to eliminate this system of load management. There is no office or shopping mall or large home in Delhi which does not plan for this by installing diesel generators as back-up. Smaller households or those which cannot afford generators use inverters which are sufficient for lighting and perhaps a fridge during an outage but cannot supply enough power for long enough for any air-conditioners or any heating. Even when power is available, the voltage variation is so large that virtually all electrical equipment must be protected by voltage stabilisers.

The black-outs in Delhi occur most often at peak times (around breakfast or dinner) and commonly at night during low load when equipment is shut off for maintenance to be carried out. Unplanned outages are apt to occur at any time. It is on summer nights that the sounds of Delhi are drowned by those of generators cutting in to keep air-conditioners running. There is no possibility of sound regulations being implemented to limit this noise and for those who have difficulty to sleep there is no alternative but to sound-proof their bed-rooms or to use ear-plugs.

The quality and reliability and availability of electric power in the more developed countries (Europe, Japan, US) is often quoted as the target for the Indian power generation and distribution system to aspire to.

But it seems that the US grid is now so weak that parts of Maryland and Washington are beginning to sound like Delhi. The Wasington Post reports:

map

Blackouts 2010 in Maryland and Washington

In Pepco territory, blackouts mean more home generators, more noise complaints

For Arthur Bennett, blackouts now come with a soundtrack.When last month’s “thundersnow” knocked out power in Bennett’s Montgomery County neighborhood, the preindustrial hush inside his house – when even the refrigerator seemed to hold its breath – soon gave way to the two-stroke roar of engines up and down his block.

Bennett, like many residents of Pepco‘s service area in Maryland and the District, has concluded that blackouts are likely to get even louder as the utility’s fed-up customers turn increasingly to backup power. According to retailers and electricians, home generator sales are booming in the area Pepco serves, especially since the company has been plagued by repeated, prolonged outages
over the past few years. Portable generators sold out at several home stores after the latest storm, and installers report that sales of high-end whole-house units have skyrocketed.

Jim Holt of Gaithersburg’s Holt Electrical said his sales of home generators have been climbing steadily and reached a near “level of panic” after the last blackout – mainly on Pepco’s turf. …….

…………. One thing both generator owners and their juiceless neighbors can agree on is the frustration of having to debate this issue at all. “I really think it’s kind of scandalous that in the capital of the world, we’ve got third-world reliability for electric power,” said Larry Posner of Shepherd Park in Northwest.

Read the entire article.

Wind Power capacity compromised in Texas: Rolling blackouts as Mexico supplies some back up

February 4, 2011

That wind power generating capacity is intermittent capacity and cannot be relied upon is obvious but sometimes escapes notice in the enthusiasm for “renewable energy”. That wind power must be backed up by other more reliable generating capacity for the periods when winds are too low or too high or when the weather is too cold is also often glossed over. That wind power must be used when the wind does blow irrespective of level of demand  and thereby displace more stable power (thus rendering it more expensive) is an inevitable consequence.

The following report comes as no surprise.

METEOROLOGICAL MUSINGS reports:

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said 7,000 megawatts of generating capacity tripped [“tripped” means failed]Tuesday night, leaving the state without enough juice. That’s enough capacity to power about 1.4 million homes. By rotating outages, ERCOT said it prevented total blackouts.
“We have the double whammy of extremely high demand, given the lowest temperatures in 15 years, combined with generation that’s been compromised and is producing less than expected or needed,” said Oncor spokeswoman Catherine Cuellar. Oncor operates power lines in North Texas and facilitated the blackouts for ERCOT.
The article didn’t give a clue as to what generating capability failed, but I can make a pretty good guess: Wind energy…
For a time, Texas was bragging about being the #1 state for “wind power” (it still is) and we were bombarded with TV commercials and newspaper editorial touting the “Pickens Plan” for massive spending on wind energy. Pickens himself was building a huge wind farm in northwest Texas. He has now ceased construction.
Now, because of relying so much on wind power, the state is suffering blackouts.
Mexico is trying to help by shipping power to Texas, but it is not enough.

Reward for fraud: $285 billion in Pentagon contracts

February 3, 2011

The Corruption Perception Index produced annually by Transparency International becomes meaningless relative to the scale of fraud and corruption with large contracts in the developed world and which do not seem to be reflected in the CPI.

An AP report carried by 660news.com reports:

Hundreds of defence companies that defrauded the U.S. military between 2007 and 2009 still received $285 billion in contracts from the Pentagon during the same period, a U.S. senator said Wednesday.

Citing a January report prepared by Pentagon acquisition officials at Sanders request, the senator said the bulk of the contracts, just over $280 billion, went to 211 companies that had civil judgments against them or settled fraud charges of more than $1 million.

During the same period, 30 defence contractors were convicted of criminal fraud, but still were awarded $682 million in new work, according to the Pentagon’s report.

Among the contractors listed in the report is AEY Inc., a Miami, Florida-based company that received a $300 million contract to supply ammunition to Afghan security forces. AEY got the work despite a record of poor performance on other government contracts.

The fraud involved shipment of millions of rounds of banned Chinese-made military ammunition that was repackaged to appear of Albanian origin. After nearly $67 million in payments, the Afghan ammunition contract was terminated in May 2008. The owner of AEY was sentenced to four years in federal prison after pleading guilty in 2009 to a fraud conspiracy charge.

In the report, defence officials listed a series of actions the military has taken to guard against contractor wrongdoing, including the formation of a working group focused on procurement fraud.

I am quite sure that many lobbyists, middlemen, bureaucrats and politicians all received their share of the largesse in these Defence Contracts. The margins available in Defence contracts far exceed those available in other large infrastructure contracts.

Related posts:

  1. https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/corruption-in-the-european-union-is-alive-and-well/
  2. https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/07/chief-risk-officer-of-bayerische-landesbank-arrested-for-50-million-bribes/

Queensland sees off Yasi: Preparedness ensures it was no Katrina

February 3, 2011

Cyclone Yasi has come and gone.

Its speed was a blessing in disguise and has ensured that it is already well inland and reducing in strength. It has left behind a trail of destruction but few (if any) serious injuries or fatalities. The township of Cardwell was warned to evacuate, but about 100 residents chose not to leave and they have not been contacted as yet.

BBC:

Worst hit were the coastal towns of Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell, with hundreds of houses destroyed. The cities of Cairns and Townsville were relatively unscathed but are being lashed by heavy rains; warnings of further storm surges have been issued. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said there had been no reports of deaths or serious injuries so far.

The similarities of Yasi to Katrina is apparent but the differences in their respective impacts is quite striking.

This may be partially due to geography and demographics and the speed with which Yasi drove inland, but observing both from across the world leads me to the perception that the primary differences between Queensland and Louisiana were

  • the preparedness of the government and the population,and
  • the sense of civic duty in Queensland, and
  • the level of trust in the state government institutions, and
  • the level of perceived duty within the institutions

The thought of Queensland police looting after Yasi as some New Orleans police did after Katrina is  inconceivable. It’s just my perception but I believe it shows the difference between institutions having a fundamental belief that they have a duty to the population they serve and others where the concept of duty is much less developed.

Cyclone Yasi compared to Hurricane Katrina

credit bbc

 

Ice in Dallas as super-storm ranges from Texas to Maine

February 2, 2011

Dallas Morning News:

Rain, sleet and snow pushing ahead of the coldest weather in more than 20 years left broad swaths of North Texas virtually impassable Tuesday. And with below-freezing temperatures locked in until at least Friday, conditions won’t improve soon.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the single digits across much of the Dallas area, and the afternoon will warm only to the low 20s, forecasters said, meaning the snow and ice that paralyzed the region Tuesday will linger, especially along neighborhood streets.

Crews work to clear a wreck involving an 18-wheeler on northbound I-35E at Pleasant Run Road. Photo: Jim Mahoney/Staff Photographer

New York Times:

A paralyzing 2,000-mile swath of winter at its snowy, icy, messy worst pushed eastward across the United States on Tuesday, disrupting the rhythms of everyday life and punctuating this season’s recurring lesson that humankind has no dominion over nature.

Airlines canceled thousands of flights. Governors called out the National Guard. Schools closed early, if they opened at all. Interstate highways became treacherous ribbons of black ice. Top officials from the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyapprised President Obama of their battle plans for foul weather threatening more than 30 states.

By Tuesday evening, the storm had brought Tulsa to a virtual halt with more than a foot of snow, layered the roadways of St. Louis with an icy sheen, and draped Chicago with a swirling snowfall so thick that the white-gray sky and the gray-white ground blurred into one enveloping test pattern. All the while, the storm was moving inexorably to the Northeast, where many people watched the televised weather reports — of blinding snow and stranded cars — and imagined their Wednesday. …..

The National Weather Service was issuing warnings for certain areas that read like snippets from a disaster-movie screenplay:

“DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND LIFE-THREATENING WINTER STORM … BEFORE MAKING DECISION TO TRAVEL … CONSIDER IF GETTING TO YOUR DESTINATION IS WORTH PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK … DO NOT TRAVEL! IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST TRAVEL … HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU.”

Rex Benz of Moline, Ill., did not let conditions stop him from his job search recently. Todd Mizener/The Dispatch, via Associated Press