“Minor incursion” by Russia allowed by Biden

January 20, 2022

It is fairly obvious that Sergei Lavrov and the Russian strategists are making a very precise calculation of what they can get away with with Joe Biden. I suspect that they have been surprised that Biden is even more risk averse than Obama and at how far they can push. They were fairly accurate with the multitude of red lines drawn by Obama in Syria which they knew could be crossed with impunity. Now that Joe Biden has confirmed that “minor incursions” by Russia into Ukraine would be acceptable, it only remains to define what a “minor” incursion is. They would have received some further proof from the German Foreign Minister recently that Europe will do little without firm backing from the US and that this backing would be very lukewarm.

It now remains to make a case for “minor” including all the clearly Russian speaking areas of Ukraine.

Line of acceptable minor incursion?

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Austria: Could next step be branding and internment of the unvaccinated?

January 20, 2022

The Austrian parliament is showing Europe the way and has made vaccination mandatory for the over 18s.

Austria parliament approves mandatory Covid vaccination

Vienna (AFP) – Austria’s parliament on Thursday approved making Covid-19 vaccinations mandatory for adults from next month, becoming the first European country to do so despite a wave of protests opposing the measure. Tens of thousands have demonstrated against mandatory vaccination in regular weekend rallies since the measure was announced in November in a bid to drive up the country’s vaccination rate. But all parties, except the far-right, supported the measure, with the new legislation passing with 137 votes in favour and 33 votes against it.

I wonder what they will do with the unvaccinated. First, brand them by pinning a coloured label on them so they can be avoided? If they persist, they could  vaccinated by force? If they still resist, their property could be confiscated and they could be sent to special internment camps?

A final solution for the pandemic?

You would think the Austrians might have learned their lesson. 

Exterminating The Unvaccinated

…….. It stands to reason that forcible vaccination of the reluctant is preferable to their incarceration. A quick execution would be much cheaper if a little unethical. Deprival of employment is already here for some. Deprival of citizenship has been suggested for others. Maybe they could be branded with a yellow star and used  – forcibly – for the trial of untested vaccines? 

……..

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Australian Border Force displays its arrogance and brainless incompetence – again

January 10, 2022

There is a reality TV show about the Australian Border Force which I sometime come across when I am avoiding commercial breaks on other channels. I am amazed at the unfeeling incompetence on display (but perhaps that is just what counts as “good” TV).

My own experience with the ABF is very limited but even that limited exposure to them has not impressed. They confiscated packets of liquor chocolates and Malaysian nuts that I was carrying. A friend had a packet of cornflakes confiscated.

Their latest escapade with Novak Djokovic only confirms my perception of a an arrogant, bureaucratic gang who have not realised that brains are intended to be used. Of course it does not help with idiot politicians at the helm.

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Wildlife conservation at its best?

January 6, 2022

There is more than a whiff of hypocrisy about wildlife conservation. In today’s world it has become the protection of failing or failed species (tigers, elephants and the like), the culling of inconvenient but successful species growing in numbers (wolves, moose, deer, …) and the extermination of highly successful species classed as pests (mosquitos, killer bees, …).

A plan to kill 10,000 wild horses in Australia is now being put into effect. Apparently a little too much biodiversity.

But to be labeled a conservationist is to be on the side of the angels. 

From Nature

Fighting against species extinction is to deny evolution

……..

So what then is the objection to – say – tigers becoming extinct which is not just an emotional reaction to the disappearance of a magnificent but anachronistic creature?  The bio-diversity argument is not very convincing and is of little relevance. To artificially keep an unsuccessful species alive in a specially protected environment has no genetic value. It increases the mis-match between the existing environment and the genetic profile needed to survive in that environment. In fact the biodiversity argument is only relevant for “life” in general and never for any particular species or group of species.  It can serve to maintain a very wide range of genetic material in the event of a catastrophe such that some form of life has a chance of continuing. But given a particular environment biodiversity in itself is of little value. …….

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Exterminating The Unvaccinated

January 6, 2022

Italy will now make it mandatory for over 50s to be vaccinated. If it is mandatory I expect that appropriate force will be used. One would expect that a single 20 year old should be able to subdue and jab around fifty 80 year-olds per day. It might take 2 to subdue a 50 year-old.

Macron has been mouthing off (apparently literally) about making life as difficult as possible for the unvaccinated. Sweden has now made it perfectly legal for any establishment to discriminate as desired against those without proof of full vaccination (thought it is unclear if “full” means 2, 3 or 4 shots). The market for fake vaccination certificates has been given a boost and is booming. The Australians have made idiots of themselves with the Novak Djokovic affair. (Of course, Novak has been a little idiotic himself).

It is apparent that, among the politically correct and the unthinking, the unvaccinated are the new scum of the earth – even if vaccinations provide no great protection from being infected by the Omicron variant. I wonder what the hierarchy of incorrectness is?

  1. Unvaccinated, infected are clearly the worst sort.
  2. Unvaccinated, uninfected are somewhat better
  3. Unvaccinated with natural immunity are not to be assumed to exist
  4. Infected though vaccinated
  5. Vaccinated and uninfected have a place reserved in heaven.

It stands to reason that forcible vaccination of the reluctant is preferable to their incarceration. A quick execution would be much cheaper if a little unethical. Deprival of employment is already here for some. Deprival of citizenship has been suggested for others. Maybe they could be branded with a yellow star and used  – forcibly – for the trial of untested vaccines? 

Posted in Health, Trivia | 2 Comments »

Most of science is about discarding what is wrong and “following the science” leads to many false trails and cul-de-sacs

December 31, 2021

I see that the CDC is under fire – again – for producing confusing and contradictory recommendations. The CDC defends itself by claiming that they are “just following the science”. The scientific method is a long process from observation to theory and – as I take it to be – goes as follows:

Observation > correlation/ analysis > hypothesis

hypothesis > experiment/falsification/analysis > hindcasts/forecasts/nowcasts > verification > theory

Probably less than one in a 1,000 hypotheses get to being considered a theory of any significance. Probably less than one in a 100 “sound” theories stand the test of time. Anybody who thinks any science is settled is just an idiot. Science is not a thing but a process. True science is – and needs to be – permanently skeptical. Most of the work of science actually consists of discarding what is wrong. It is inevitable that “following the science” will lead you down more false paths than correct ones. Yet “following the science” is claimed as justification for actions. Following false trails is imbued with a sanctity and a virtue it does not have. It is also a way of avoiding blame.

Backtracking from previous advice, giving conflicting advice and following false trails has been evident more often than not over the last two years as authorities have tried to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. The medical response to the pandemic can be classed into 3 areas.

  1. Public health measures
  2. Vaccination
  3. clinical treatment (including drugs for clinical use)

Public health measures across the globe have been confusing, contradictory and blatantly political. Of course, epidemiology is no science even if it tries to cloak itself in scientific methods. What is certain with the spread of the Delta and the Omicron variants is that public health advice today is much the same as it was 700 years ago with the Black Death in Europe. “Avoid the infected, wear a mask and burn your dead”. Pharmaceuticals are doing very well as programs of mass vaccination are rolled out across the globe every 3 months. It is a business which has a bright future ahead of it. Certainly the speed with which testing methods and vaccines are being produced and rolled out is impressive. Both the testing and the vaccination production industries are proving to be wonderfully remunerative. There have been great advances in the clinical treatment of those infected and in the identification of drugs (many taken from other uses) for effective treatment. But there have also been a very large number of false starts with “promising” drugs which have later been found to be not very effective. Health services and health care personnel have been rushed of their feet and have done a remarkable job. They have also gone down many cul-de-sacs. In spite of the advances in treatment many of those infected are still losing their lives.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) backtracked on a few more facets of COVID-19-related guidance this week, leaving the agency open to more social media mockery.

This week the CDC admitted its initial estimates about the prevalence of the omicron variant were way off. A few days earlier, the agency also revealed it was shortening the length of quarantine for COVID patients from 10 days to five if they were asymptomatic at that time. Those walk backs followed a series of other confusing announcements from the CDC, including fluctuating guidance on masks. The agency initially said only unvaccinated individuals should wear face coverings, until July, when the CDC changed course to say vaccinated individuals should resume wearing masks in certain situations.

NBC’s Peter Alexander confronted CDC Director Rochelle Walensky Wednesday, wondering why Americans should “trust” her and her agency in light of all the “mixed messaging.” She said they are simply following the science.

I am afraid the CDC is just going through a CYA exercise.

It has been 2 years now. We have followed the recommendations of the medical and public health fraternity. We have had 3 vaccinations so far. I expect we shall have to have a fourth in April or May.  And a fifth and a sixth before this pandemic is over.

It is almost time to rename the Omicron variant as the Covid-21 virus.

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Ashes re-cremated – no sign of any Phoenix

December 28, 2021

I am relatively neutral when it comes to Australia versus England. But last night’s annihilation of England by Australia in the 3rd Test was both wonderful to watch for the debut performance by Scott Boland and a cringing embarrassment for any supporter of English Test cricket.

The Ashes of English cricket from 1882 have been re-cremated. (Is that possible?)

When will the Phoenix rise?

Certainly not until Cricket England gives value to red-ball cricket again.

 

 

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Greetings on Dies Natalis Solis Invicti

December 25, 2021

This post is from 10 years ago – but it will do for 2021

It is the 25th of December of the year 2011 2021 of the Gregorian Calendar and it is the anniversary of the day of the birth of the Invincible Sun (Dies Natalis Solis Invicti).

More correctly, of course it is the presumed date of the birth of the Earth’s revolutions around the Sun. This revolution would have existed even when the Earth was just an amorphous conglomeration of gas and particles orbiting the Sun and still waiting to coalesce as the Earth. Since the seasonal celebrations could never be suppressed, it is the date which was hijacked as the day of the birth of Christ (first recorded in 354AD), some 1,657 years ago. But Natalis Solis Invicti goes back much longer than that. And to the best of our knowledge that was about 4,540,000,000 (±1%) years ago.

 

And while the celebrations around the world at this dark time of the year remain of vital importance in the human calendar, its relevance as the birthday of Christ has become largely meaningless. It is the celebration of renewal, of the beginning of a new year, of the coming lengthening of the days after the winter solstice which pre-dates Christian tradition and will continue long after its inevitable extinction. It is the certainty of belief that the earth will continue to revolve around the Sun and all that follows from that which lifts the human spirit.

 

Here the sun rises today at 08:48 and sets at 15:05 – a day-length of just over 6 hours. But the days are getting longer and already by next Saturday the day at this latitude will be 6 minutes longer. Over the next 200 days the length of each day will increase by an average of more than 3 minutes each day and by high summer the length of the day will be around 17 hours. And it is the affirmation of this renewal, this anticipation of what is to come and the reconfirmation of “certain” belief in Sol Invictus which lifts my spirit.

 

And so my greetings to all on this day to celebrate the day of the birth of the Invincible Sun.

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The Ashes: England in a panic with team selection for 3rd test

December 25, 2021

Team selections were announced for the 3rd test starting tomorrow.

Australia: David Warner, Marcus Harris, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wk), Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland.

England: Zak Crawley, Haseeb Hameed, Dawid Malan, Joe Root (c), Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wk), Ollie Robinson, Mark Wood, Jack Leach, Jimmy Anderson.

That England needed to make changes was inevitable. But there is a hint of panic in the changes made.

That Rory Burns needed to be dropped and replaced by Zak Crawley (for want of anybody else) was unavoidable. That Ollie Pope also needed to be left out was also inevitable but Bairstow rather than Lawrence as his replacement is questionable. Mark Wood comes in instead of Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson is retained. Ollie Robinson is also retained and Jack Leach replaces Chris Woakes(!). Chris Woakes and Stuart Broad have been taking wickets (3 and 2 )and their batting is not negligible.

“Woakes also averages 54.28 away from home and 55.61 in Australia while Broad averages 37.88 in Australia.”

The paradoxical thing is that there is now a longer tail but the bowling attack has simultaneously been weakened. And the batting remains just as vulnerable.

The line between winning and losing can be very thin. Of course a hundred by someone (Root or Buttler for example) together with a Ben Stokes blitz is all that is needed for a huge batting success. That may still happen but there is panic showing in the England camp.

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Virus GoT as Omicron mates with Delta to give us Delmicron

December 24, 2021

It sounds like the Game of Thrones. Which virus strain is going to conquer?

Hindustan Times:

As cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus are being reported in the US and Europe and rising in India, reports about “Delmicron” have emerged over the last few days. A member of the Covid-19 task force in Maharashtra has said there is a possibility that the West is caught between twin spikes of the Delta and the Omicron variants of the coronavirus.

“Delmicron, the twin spikes of Delta and Omicron, in Europe and US has led to a mini tsunami of cases,” Dr Shashank Joshi was quoted as saying by a leading newspaper. The highly contagious Omicron variant was first detected last month in southern Africa and has now been reported in 89 countries, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Delmicron is not a new variant of the coronavirus but the Delta and the Omicron strains together fuelling Covid-19 cases. Data shows Omicron is the more dominant variant in the US and accounts for 73 per cent of all new cases, up from less than 1 per cent at the beginning of the month. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said the Delta variant was responsible for more than 99.5 per cent of the Covid-19 infections in the US last month.

……..

Doctors say people with a weak immune system, the elderly and ones with comorbidities are at higher risk of getting infected with the Delta and Omicron variants, simultaneously, according to a report. It added that areas with low vaccinations rates are also at risk. However, health experts are divided on whether the combination of the two variants can lead to a super strain.

That’s all we need now. Virus strains selectively sharing the characteristics most suited to their own survival.

 

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