In Norway, more sun correlates to reduced inherited fertlity and greater infant mortality

January 10, 2015

There is a new intriguing paper from The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU):

G. R. Skjaervo, F. Fossoy, E. Roskaft. Solar activity at birth predicted infant survival and women’s fertility in historical Norway. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015; 282 (1801): 20142032 DOI:10.1098/rspb.2014.2032

Researchers studied Norwegian church records of 9,000 people from the period 1750-1900 and looked at life history variables and compared them with environmental factors including solar activity.

NTNU Press Release: Skjærvø and her colleagues found that children born in the years with lots of solar activity had a higher probability of dying compared to children who were born in the years with less solar activity.

On average, the lifespan of children born in years that had a great deal of solar activity was 5.2 years shorter than other children. The largest difference was in the probability of dying during the first two years of life.

Children who were born in years with lots of sunshine and who survived were also more likely to have fewer children, who in turn gave birth to fewer children than others. This finding shows that increased UV radiation during years of high solar activity had an effect across generations.

Skjærvø used information on the number of sunspots as an indication of the amount of UV radiation in a given year. The number of sunspots reaches a maximum every 11 years on average, which results in more UV radiation on Earth during years with high sunspot and solar activity.

UV radiation can have positive effects on human vitamin D levels, but it can also result in a reduction of vitamin B9 (folate). It is known that low folate levels during pregnancy are linked to higher child mortality.

The NTNU study showed that families from the lowest socio-economic groups were most affected by UV radiation. This is probably related to the time period Skjærvø studied, which was a time of clear class distinctions in Norway, especially in rural areas. Women who worked in the fields were more exposed to the sun than other women. In many cases they also had a poorer diet.

If the primary mechanism for such connections is through UV radiation, then it presumably does not have the same impact on those with darker skin. But I suppose that the records from tropical or equatorial regions are not as comprehensive or reliable as old Norwegian church records.

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Winter storm gives a day with no deaths by fighting in Syria

January 9, 2015

And even while the Paris atrocities seem to be coming to a final resolution, there is always hope. Roll on another ice age.

From Reuters:

A day without death in Syria

 Nobody was reported killed by fighting in Syria on Wednesday, January 7, 2015, the first day without casualties in three years, after a fierce winter storm quelled violence, a group that monitors the war said.

A boy walks past a snowman along a road covered with snow in the Duma neighborhood of Damascus, January 7, 2015. REUTERS/Badra Mamet

 

Men walk along a street during snow fall in the Duma neighborhood of Damascus, January 7, 2015. Nobody was reported killed by fighting in Syria on Wednesday, the first day without casualties in three years, after a fierce winter storm quelled violence, a group that monitors the war said. REUTERS/Badra Mamet

 

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Why do all mighty gods need to be defended against blasphemy?

January 8, 2015

The fatwa against Salman Rushdie was issued in 1989 by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of Iran and has yet to be withdrawn

Broadcast on Iranian radio, the judgement read:

“We are from Allah and to Allah we shall return. I am informing all brave Muslims of the world that the author of The Satanic Verses, a text written, edited, and published against Islam, the Prophet of Islam, and the Qur’an, along with all the editors and publishers aware of its contents, are condemned to death. I call on all valiant Muslims wherever they may be in the world to kill them without delay, so that no one will dare insult the sacred beliefs of Muslims henceforth. And whoever is killed in this cause will be a martyr, Allah Willing. Meanwhile if someone has access to the author of the book but is incapable of carrying out the execution, he should inform the people so that [Rushdie] is punished for his actions. Rouhollah al-Mousavi al-Khomeini.”

That was the first time I ever felt it necessary to think about blasphemy and wondered why it is considered by some to be a crime. Sol Invictus is no longer considered a god. But the power of the Sun is such that what humans may say has no impact on its behaviour or its power. It is not necessary to criminalise or be outraged by blasphemy against the Sun. Clearly no all mighty, all knowing god would have any need – or any use – for puny humans to defend the divine reputation. Unless of course, he/she/it was a fiction, in which case “blasphemy” would be seen as threatening by the creators or the supporters of the fiction. Unless the gods had been created in the image of men. The greater the fiction the greater the perceived threat. The greater the outrage against an alleged blasphemy, the weaker the god must be.

All organised religions dislike blasphemy, apostasy and heresy – but it is all about the threat perceived by the members of the organisation. The weaker the foundations of the organisation the greater is the threat perceived. The outrage against The Satanic Verses (usually without even reading the book) and the violent reactions to the Mohammed cartoons were fanned by “priests” of one kind or another. We would be well rid of these organised religions and their troublesome priests.

Voltaire addressed the idiocy of blasphemy under “B” in his Philosophical Dictionary of 1764.

….. Is it not to the purpose here to remark that what has been blasphemy in one country has often been piety in another? ….. 

In our own times it is unfortunate that what is blasphemy at Rome, at our Lady of Loretto, and within the walls of San Gennaro, is piety in London, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Berlin, Copenhagen, Berne, Basel, and Hamburg. It is yet more unfortunate that even in the same country, in the same town, in the same street, people treat one another as blasphemers.

Nay, of the ten thousand Jews living at Rome there is not one who does not regard the pope as the chief of the blasphemers, while the hundred thousand Christians who inhabit Rome, in place of two millions of Jovians who filled it in Trajan’s time, firmly believe that the Jews meet in their synagogues on Saturday for the purpose of blaspheming.

A Cordelier has no hesitation in applying the epithet of blasphemer to a Dominican who says that the Holy Virgin was born in original sin, notwithstanding that the Dominicans have a bull from the pope which permits them to teach the maculate conception in their convents, and that, besides this bull, they have in their forum the express declaration of St. Thomas Aquinas.

But the concept of blasphemy has now extended to being “offending the sensibilities” of one section of a community by another. Unfortunately “not giving offense” has become the new norm. Communities compete to see who can be more outraged. Publishers run scared in India of printing anything criticising Hinduism or Islam for fear of “offending sensibilities”. All over Europe the truth about the behaviour of some groups is suppressed to “avoid giving offense”. It is actions being subordinated to fears. It is the cowardice of “political correctness”

Kenan Malik in The Hindu

The “never give offence” brigade imagines that a more plural society requires a greater imposition of censorship. In fact it is precisely because we do live in plural societies that we need the fullest extension possible of free speech. In such societies, it is both inevitable and important that people offend the sensibilities of others. It is inevitable, because where different beliefs are deeply held, clashes are unavoidable; and we should deal with those clashes openly and robustly rather than suppress them. It is important because any kind of social change or social progress means offending some deeply held sensibilities. Or to put it another way: “You can’t say that!” is all too often the response of those in power to having their power challenged. To accept that certain things cannot be said is to accept that certain forms of power cannot be challenged.

Of course any society must itself decide where its limits of “free speech” are to be set. What constitutes “hate speech” or “incitement to violence” or “libel” or “slander” and should be banned is up to each society to decide. But no society needs to protect any gods – supposed to be all powerful – against blasphemy.

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If Islam is not to be represented by its rabid killers ……..

January 7, 2015

The Paris killers are identified but still at large. But the wanton and savage attack upsets me and I cannot avoid that this post has become a bit of a rant.

It is a short step from a rational detestation of barbarous, young, bigoted and intolerant killers of any kind becoming Islampohobia, when the killers are all, once again, self-confessed followers of radical Islam. The radicalisation of young Muslims in Europe nearly always includes three factors:

  1. A rabid, supposedly religious, imam or mullah or self-anointed preacher, and
  2. an impressionable, immature young person (usually male), and
  3. a failure of parenting

Right now there are radical preachers revelling in the Paris attacks and congratulating the killers. These radicalised young Muslims in Europe are not poverty-stricken. Very often they come from fairly prosperous families. They are not uneducated or unintelligent but they are warped and twisted and brain-washed. When they are unemployed it is because they wish to be unemployed. (They differ from some of the right-wing fanatics of Europe who are often unemployable).

But if Islam is not to be represented by its killers then it is first the Islamic communities of Europe which have to drive out the rabid preachers and improve their own parenting to stop the conversion of their children into these murderous, hate-filled, savages. Merely wringing their hands and condemning these actions after the event is not enough. It is behaviour that counts.

The face of Islam today is the very real behaviour of ISIS, Al Shabab, Boko Haram, the Taliban and a host of similar jihadists together with the absence of actions (not just voices) from the Islamic community to prevent or eradicate the disease. It is high time that the moderate Islamic community realised that – like it or not – they are being defined by their most extreme, warped, fanatics. The demonisation of Islam will not stop as long as Islam does not rid itself of its demons.

Is it any wonder that Pegida is gaining strength in Germany?

I don’t care for any organised religions where preachers take it upon themselves to tell others what they are to believe.  But right now I find organised Islam (Shia and Sunni and Sufi and every jihadist faction) the easiest to despise.

BBC:

Caroline Wyatt, BBC Religious affairs correspondent has just posted this:

The killings at Charlie Hebdo are a deeply unwelcome reminder to the west that for some, mainly young radicalised men, their fundamentalist interpretation of their religion matters enough to kill those who offend it.

As a result, across western Europe, liberally-minded societies are beginning to divide over how best to deal with radical Islamism and its impact on their countries, while governments agonise over the potential for a backlash against Muslims living in Europe.

Today, mainstream Muslim organisations in the UK and France have unequivocally condemned the killings, saying that terrorism is an affront to Islam.

But the potential backlash, including support for far right parties and groups, may well hurt ordinary Muslims more than anyone else, leaving the authorities and religious leaders in western Europe wondering how to confront violence in the name of religion without victimizing minorities or being accused of “Islamophobia”.

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Pseudo-science and religious loonies: Modi needs to purge the riff-raff he attracts

January 7, 2015

Narendra Modi’s new BJP government in India has been a breath of fresh air after the stagnant, smelly and stale environment in which the previous Congress government had got itself stuck in. It is still early days yet but Narendra Modi will need to get to grips with his idiot fringe before they leach away all his gains. The loony, religious Hindu right feel empowered and and are making fools of themselves. The sad part is that they elevate bigotry and prejudice and religious violence as being justified for their “holy cause”.

The idiot fringe consists  – among others – of supposedly pious people (men and women) who claim that “goodness” is implicit in being a “Hindu”. They bask in the reflected glory of the supposedly great days of Rama but their grasp of history is a little less than zero and is mostly imagined. Their use of pseudoscience and their interpretation of ancient scriptures sounds like those who manage to read every current event into the soothsayings of Nostradamus. They threaten to make Modi’s government a laughing stock. Before too long Modi will need to purge the BJP of the lunatic fringe.

They usually make up history whenever – and wherever – they lack knowledge. They have started a campaign of reconverting people they claim were converted to Islam or Christianity in the first place. They are not averse to using violence in their self-defined “just causes”.  They include idiots who are Members of Parliament calling for every good Hindu woman to have 5 children each! The same MP called Gandhi’s assassin a “patriot”. They also tend to be the same people who inculcate the culture of feudal fiefdoms and accord themselves and their followers the right of “droit du seigneur”. The so-called “god-men” are perhaps the worst sexual predators around.  They not only allow but they sanctify the rape culture that is endemic in all of urban India.

They also include those who would claim that ancient Hindu culture was responsible for all the major inventions and discoveries of the last 2,000 years. This has led to a wave of pseudo-science which is perceived by the loony right as being “politically correct” and fashionable under the new government. Unfortunately many academics are too cowed down by their own perceptions of career and government patronage to resist the nonsense. Even the Indian Science Congress currently going on feels that it must give space to the the pseudo-scientists and the charlatans. Allowing pseudo-science is academic misconduct which is just as bad as faking data.

One entire session of the current program (Indian Science Congress 2015 program) is devoted to “Ancient Sciences through Sanskrit”.

Pseudo-science at the Indian Science Congress 2015

Pseudo-science at the Indian Science Congress 2015

The nonsense claims range from the origin of hominids being in India to Vedic nanoscience and elephant urine as fuel for powered flight.

Indian Express: The paper on aviation is part of a symposium on “ancient Indian sciences through Sanskrit”, and will be presented by Captain Anand Bodas, retired principal of a pilot training centre, and Ameya Jadhav, lecturer at Mumbai’s Swami Vivekanand International School and Junior College. ……. The abstract of the Bodas-Jadhav paper says: “Aviation technology in ancient India is not a tale of mythology, but it is a total historical document giving technical details and specifications. Ancient Sanskrit literature is full of descriptions of flying machines, Vimanas. “From the many documents found, it is evident that the scientist-sages Agastya and Bharadwaja had developed the lore of aircraft construction. Aeronautics or Vaimaanikashastra is a part of Yantra Sarvasva of Bharadwaja. This is also known as Brihadvimaana Shastra. Vaimaanikashastra deals with aeronautics, including the design of aircraft, the way they can be used for transportation and other applications, in detail.” According to the abstract, the knowledge of aeronautics is described in Sanskrit in 100 sections, eight chapters, 500 principles and 3000 slokas. “Great sage Bharadwaja explained the construction of aircraft and way to fly it in air, on land, on water and use the same aircraft like a submarine,” the abstract says.

“He also described the construction of war planes and fighter aircraft. This paper will deal with manufacturing an alloy for making aeroplanes, the specialised dress material being virus proof, waterproof and shock proof for the pilots. This was given by Bhardwaja sage in Brihatvimanshashtra. He had mentioned 97 reference books for aviation.”

According to the abstract, the paper will provide a short account of the special diet for aviators, and on “emergency food” for times when regular “fooding facility was not available or possible”, as recommended in the Aharadhikaran. “Bharadwaja has considered the climatic changes in the atmospheric levels while considering the dressing of the pilot. He has mentioned 25 types of viruses in the atmosphere which attack the human skin, bones and the body… In Vastradhikaran, he has given the reason for special clothing and the process of making fabric. After studying all above points, which are mentioned in Brihatvimanshashtra, we came to know that ancient Indian sciences and specially aviation technology was so advanced. The most interesting thing about the Indian science of aeronautics and Bharadwaja’s research was that they were successfully tested in actual practice by an Indian over hundred years ago. In 21st century, we should study and spread the achievements of our sages,” says the abstract.

Basking in a past and imagined glory!

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Oil wars: US crude drops below $50 as Saudi Arabia drops prices to protect market share

January 6, 2015

Some stock markets are spooked as oil prices continue to slide, but bringing oil price back to a cost-based price is a good thing in the long term. For too long – almost 45 years – oil producers and their governments have fleeced the consumer. Oil prices have had no relationship to cost of production but have been governed by artificially controlling its scarcity (by the OPEC cartel) and pricing it at the level of unacceptable pain for the consumer. Predatory governments have assisted by taxing oil products as far as they can even for the necessities of living (gasoline, diesel, LPG, fertilisers, pesticides…). If the present oil wars bring the price to the consumer in line with the cost of production – and there is no shortage of oil available to be produced – then it is a fundamentally sound, and long overdue, removal of one of the great, artificial distortions of the market place.

History will show the OPEC cartel to have held back development for 4 decades and to have been an evil thing.

Even if Saudi Arabia is engaged in a multi-pronged war – against shale oil, against Russia, against Iran – the root cause of the drop is that there is no longer a monopoly that the OPEC cartel enjoys. And the the way being shown by US shale oil is available to many more countries. In the short term it may well affect stock markets as these fetters are removed but in the long term this is an inexorable driver of growth – especially for the developing countries and their hard pressed consumers.

Remarkably many oil producers are now even increasing production in a time of a glut and cutting prices to win market share. They are being short-sighted. As the Opec cartel collapses, and it becomes a buyer’s market it will be oil price which governs and even then only for short term supply contracts. It will no longer be possible for the cartel oil producers to extort long-term contracts at high prices from developing countries who have no alternatives.

FP0106_Oil_C_JR

2015 not 2014 — via Financial Post

 Financial Post: U.S crude crashed below US$50 a barrel while benchmark Brent crude tumbled under US$53 after data showed Russian oil output at post-Soviet era highs and Iraqi oil exports at near 35-year peaks.

Meanwhile, the outright price for Canadian heavy crude fell below US$35 a barrel. ……. The drop in WTI pushed the pushed the price of Canadian heavy crude to US$34.64 per barrel, a level that could make producing crude from the oilsands unprofitable for most operators in the world’s third-largest crude reserve.

Many of the region’s operators have already slashed capital spending and slowed work on new projects in order to cope with the price crash, though production from the region has not yet been affected.

…… Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia revealed it had made deep cuts to its monthly oil prices for European buyers , the sixth time in a row since June when it had slashed prices, corresponding with the rout in crude futures markets over the period. Analysts read the latest cut as reflecting Saudi Arabia’s deepening defence of its market share for crude. The OPEC kingpin also trimmed its prices for U.S. refiners for a sixth straight month, while raising rates for Asia.

…… Some traders seem certain that U.S. crude will be trading in the US$40 region later in the week if weekly oil inventory numbers for the United States on Wednesday show another supply build. ……. 

Russia’s oil output hit a post-Soviet high last year, averaging 10.58 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.7% thanks to small non-state producers, Energy Ministry data showed. Iraq’s oil exports were at their highest since 1980 in December, an oil ministry spokesman said, with record sales from the country’s southern terminals.

The Russian and Iraqi data overshadowed reports of drops in Libya’s oil output due to conflict. Libya’s oil output has fallen to around 380,000 bpd after the closure of the OPEC producer’s biggest oil port Es Sider, along with another oil port Ras Lanuf.

The sooner oil price drops to less than $40 per barrel, the sooner the oil price can stabilise for 12 – 18 months. Then, as the price works its way through the economies of the consumer countries, the markets could see a year or two of stable, sustainable growth.

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“Filthy” Vikings were plagued by gut parasites

January 5, 2015

The observations of a 10th century Arab traveller, Ahmad ibn Fadlān ibn al-Abbās ibn Rāšid ibn Hammād, about the hygiene of the Vikings more than a thousand years ago, are being confirmed by new DNA analyses. Ibn Fadlan describes the Eastern Vikings while the new DNA studies are about the Western Vikings, but their living conditions and habits would have been very similar. ScienceNordic reports that a new DNA study “conducted on thousand-year-old parasite eggs recovered from Viking faeces, shows that both the Vikings and their domestic animals were plagued by parasites — which most likely enjoyed excellent living conditions in a dirty world in which domestic animals and humans lived in unhygienically close proximity to each other”.

The paper is published in the Journal of Parasitology:

Martin Jensen Søe, Peter Nejsum, Brian Lund Fredensborg, and Christian Moliin Outzen Kapel (2014) DNA typing of ancient parasite eggs from environmental samples identifies human and animal worm infections in Viking-age settlement. Journal of Parasitology In-Press.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1645/14-650.1

Study author, post-doc Martin J. Søe from the Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences and the Centre for Geogenetics at the University of Copenhagen, explains:

“It’s fascinating to be able to examine these extremely old parasite eggs and establish which species they came from,” says Søe. “We can use this to say something about what people suffered from during the Viking age and which domestic animals they kept in one location or another. It can also answer questions about the interaction between humans and animals and how close to each other they lived.”

The new study is part of a large scale project in which Danish scientists are charting the evolutionary, demographic, and health-related stories from the earliest settlements and up to modern times. ………. 

….. In the study, Søe examined the content of parasite eggs in soil samples from a Viking settlement near Viborg. The soil samples came from a latrine used during the period 1018-1030.

The scientists began by separating the ancient parasite eggs from the soil and then extracted DNA from them.

By sequencing the DNA, Søe was able to determine which species of parasite the eggs came from and whether the species infected humans.

The study shows that the soil samples contained parasite eggs from roundworm and human whipworm, along with liver fluke from cattle or sheep

“You can’t tell if they come from parasites that infected humans or animals by simply looking at the eggs,” says Søe. “But by examining their DNA, we are able to confirm what we until now have only believed to be the case: that a thousand years ago, humans carried these parasites around.”

Going East the Vikings were seen as “handsome but filthy”

Ibn Fadlān was a 10th-century Arab traveler, famous for his account of his travels as a member of an embassy of the Abbasid Caliph of Baghdad to the king of the Volga Bulgars. His account is most known for providing a description of the Volga Vikings, including an eyewitness account of a ship burial.

File:Ibn Fadhlan manuscript.jpg

Ibn Fadhlan manuscript

Elements of Ibn Fadlān’s account are used in the novel Eaters of the Dead  by Michael Crichton (adapted to film in The 13th Warrior with Antonio Banderas as Ibn Fadlan), in which the Arab ambassador is taken even further north and is involved in adventures inspired by the Old English epic Beowulf.

Some excerpts from Ahmad ibn Fadlān:

They are the filthiest of all Allah’s creatures: they do not purify themselves after excreting or urinating or wash themselves when in a state of ritual impurity after coitus and do not even wash their hands after food.

I have never seen more perfect physical specimens, tall as date palms, blond and ruddy; they wear neither tunics nor kaftans, but the men wear a garment which covers one side of the body and leaves a hand free. Each man has an axe, a sword, and aknife, and keeps each by him at all times. Each woman wears on either breast a box of iron, silver,copper, or gold; the value of the box indicates the wealth of the husband. Each box has a ring from which depends a knife. The women wear neck-rings of gold and silver. Their most prized ornaments are green glass beads. They string them as necklaces for their women.

In the case of a rich man, they gather together his possessions and divide them into three portions, one third for his household, one third with which to cut funeral garments for him, and one third with which they ferment alcohol which they drink on the day when his slave-girl kills herself and is burned together with her master.

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Erectile dysfunction of a wind turbine

January 5, 2015

Environmentalists like wind turbines mainly for their phallic symbolism. The sight of multiple phalluses sticking up all over the countryside  makes them feel good about the virility of their “movement”.

The erectile dysfunction problem is probably psychological. As it is, wind turbines are subsidised because they cannot perform with no wind or with high winds. But this collapse was in light winds. A rapid infusion of subsidies would probably help.

Turbine collapse County Tyrone 2nd January 2015 The Independant

Wind turbine No. 3 at the Screggagh wind farm, Northern Ireland (Nordex N80, 2.5MW, 80m rotor) collapsed in light winds – image The Independent

The Nordex N80 wind turbine has an 80m diameter rotor and the tower, from ground level to hub, is also 80m tall. It is supposed to operate between wind speeds of 3 m/s and 25 m/s and its power rating of 2.5 MW is for a wind speed of 15 m/s. It is supposed to be able to withstand a wind speed of 70 m/s (but I suspect that this is just an optimistic calculation and not based on any realistic trials).

The design is with a modular tubular steel lattice tower. From the pictures I would speculate that it is a tower design failure. Possibly the fatigue conditions (caused by rotor imbalance or wind gusts) have been underestimated such that some strength (thickness) has been sacrificed for keeping the weight down.

The Guardian: The cause of the collapse is unclear as winds were light on Friday. It is understood the rotor blades spun out of control and the sound of the mechanical structure crashing to the ground could be heard up to seven miles away.

 

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The certainty of the improbable

January 4, 2015

When you toss a coin, there is complete certainty that an event that is only 50% probable will occur. When you roll a dice there is absolute certainty that a 16.67% probable event will come to pass. It sounds trivial. After all the probability is only to distinguish between outcomes once it is certain that the coin will be tossed or that the dice will be rolled. Probability of an outcome is meaningless if the coin were not tossed or the dice not rolled. But note also that the different outcomes must be pre-defined. If you toss a silver coin in the air the return of a golden coin is not included among the pre-defined, possible outcomes. That a roll of the dice can result in a 9 is not “on the cards”.

Probability or improbability of an event or a causal relationship is meaningless unless the certainty of some more general event or relationship is certain. Moreover as soon as we define the event or relationship to which we allocate a probability, we also define that that event or relationship is permitted. It is certain that tomorrow will be another day. Only because it is certain can we consider the probability – or improbability – of what weather tomorrow might bring.  Suppose we define the weather as being either “good”, “bad” or “indifferent”. We can guess or calculate the probability of tomorrow’s weather exhibiting one of these 3 permitted outcomes. My point is that as soon as we define the improbable we also make it certain that the selected outcomes are all permitted. Then even the most improbable – but permitted – weather outcome will, on some day, occur. Not just permitted – but certain. If the improbable never happens then it is impossible – not improbable.

We use statistics and probabilities of occurrence because we don’t know the mechanisms which govern the outcome. If mechanisms were known in their entirety, we would just calculate the result – not the probability of a particular result. The very mention of a probability is always an admission of ignorance. It means that we cannot tell what makes something probable or improbable and even what we consider improbable will surely occur. An outcome of even very low probability will then – given sufficient total occurrence – certainly occur. The 2011 earthquake and tsunami off the Tōhoku coast was a one-in-a-1,000 year occurrence. The probability of it happening next year remains at one-in-a-thousand. But given another 1,000 years it will (almost) certainly happen again.

One of my concerns is that the use of statistics and probability – say in medical trials – is usually taken to imply knowledge, but it is actually an admission of ignorance. No doubt the use of statistics and probability help to constrain the boundaries of the ignorance, but the bottom line is that even the low probability risks will materialise. The very use of probabilities is always because of a lack of knowledge, because of ignorance.

In the beginning of December I was having a regular medical check-up and I was offered a flu-shot for the winter which I took. But I got to wondering why I did. The influenza vaccine is effective in about 50% of cases (i.e. 50% achieve protection). Around 5% – irrespective of whether they achieve protection or not – suffer some adverse reaction to the shot. Around 0.5% of the 5% (1:4,000 of total vaccinated) suffer a fatal reaction. In our little clinic perhaps 3,000 were vaccinated this winter. About 1,500 would have achieved protection and about 150 must have had some adverse reaction. Most likely one person has or will suffer a fatal reaction. I was just gambling that I would not be that one person. When some new drug is said to have a 1% chance of adverse effects it only means that it will certainly have adverse effects for 1 in a hundred cases. When that one person chooses to take that drug, he may be making the best medical choice possible – but it is the wrong choice.

A low risk for the multitude but a certainty for some. The chances of something improbable never happening are virtually zero.

Improbable – but certain.

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Get yourself a luck-bucket

January 2, 2015

The new paper in Science showing that two-thirds of all cancers are due to random cell mutations and not due to life-style, environmental conditions or inherited predispositions, is getting a lot of attention today.

Abstract: Some tissue types give rise to human cancers millions of times more often than other tissue types. Although this has been recognized for more than a century, it has never been explained. Here, we show that the lifetime risk of cancers of many different types is strongly correlated (0.81) with the total number of divisions of the normal self-renewing cells maintaining that tissue’s homeostasis. These results suggest that only a third of the variation in cancer risk among tissues is attributable to environmental factors or inherited predispositions. The majority is due to “bad luck,” that is, random mutations arising during DNA replication in normal, noncancerous stem cells. This is important not only for understanding the disease but also for designing strategies to limit the mortality it causes.

Nearly every newspaper headline describes these random cell mutations as being “bad luck”. And that got me to wondering about the nature of “luck” and our perceptions of “luck”.

To be “lucky” an event has to be improbable. The consequences of the lucky event may be good or bad. “Luck” or “fortune” if not qualified by the word “bad” are generally taken to be “good”. Any event which is expected is never classified as being “lucky”. That somebody will win the lottery is highly likely and is not a matter of luck. That one particular person shall win the lottery will always have a very low probability and therefore becomes a lucky happening. All those who didn’t win are not “unlucky” because their loss was expected. But to have the winning ticket which is then carried away in an improbable gust of wind could be considered “unlucky”.

I like to think of luck or fortune as a flowing river. But not everybody is near this river and not all the flow is advantageous. Some of the flow is downright poisonous. The person with “good luck” is then the person who is not only near the river but also has a bucket to capture some of the advantageous flow. The difference between the lucky person and the ordinary person is then access to the river and the existence and the suitability of the “bucket”. I think of a person with “bad luck” as one with an ineffective bucket who picks up some of the “poisoned” or disadvantageous flow. The bucket is both a container and a filter. The Romans praying to the Goddess Fortuna or Hindus praying to Lakshmi are effectively trying to buy their “luck catching buckets”. Sportsmen or gamblers going through superstitious rituals before a match or a play are trying to prepare their “luck buckets”. I used to have a “lucky tie” that I always wore to job interviews. I see athletes and footballers cross themselves before their race or their game but they are only praying for their buckets.

Statistically it may be inevitable that there will be some lottery winner. The intelligent designer of the lottery well knows that he will pay out. But he does not know to whom. And he cannot exercise the control to determine (except in a rigged lottery) the winner. There are – in a simple lottery – two random events to consider:

  1. the process by which the lottery tickets are distributed, and
  2. the process by which the number of the winning ticket is selected.

Suppose there are a million tickets numbered one to one million and that one of these numbers will be selected. There is a certainty that a winning ticket will be declared. The operator of the lottery has no need of and no recourse to luck. I have to first acquire a ticket and then my number has to be selected. The odds of my being in the game are somewhat less than one and only then would I have a one-in-a-million chance of winning. My luck-catching bucket does not have to control both these events but it does need to be able to ensure that I get a number and that the particular number allocated to me is also the particular number selected to win.

So the task is to get myself an effective luck-bucket which is not too unwieldy. An instruction manual on how to use it would be helpful But first I need a map showing me where the Luck River flows. But if I don’t have a lottery ticket my luck-bucket won’t help me. So perhaps the first thing to do is to get myself into the right game.

But my buying a lottery ticket is so improbable that this too is a matter of Luck.

There’s a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza,
There’s a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, a hole.

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Posted in Behaviour, Medicine | Comments Off on Get yourself a luck-bucket

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