The puzzle of the reduction of US nuclear warheads

May 7, 2014

Another factoid supporting my perception that Barack Obama is more hype than substance.

Virtually all the reductions of US nuclear warheads since 1983 have been made during the tenures of Republican Presidents (Ronald Reagan, Papa Bush and Bush Jr.) There have been virtually no reductions under Clinton and Obama.

The massive reductions in Reagan and Bush Sr.’s time came – not unexpectedly – as the Soviet Union collapsed. Paradoxically, even during the younger Bush’s war-mongering times, and even with the perceived nuclear threats from Iran and N. Korea, a substantial number of nuclear warheads were dismantled or retired. But virtually nothing has happened under Clinton and Obama.

io9 wonders why?

US reduction of nuclear warheads since 1983 graphic from io9

US reduction of nuclear warheads since 1983 graphic from io9

The EU Parliament at work

May 7, 2014

The European Parliament must be the most useless, unnecessary, wasteful and undemocratic parliament of any in the world.

766 MEP’s are each paid €7,000 per month.

Roger Helmer hard at work in the European Parliament

Parliament in session

Enthusiastic attendance

A hereditary seat to be handed down?

A multiverse model of the Universe from 800 years ago

May 6, 2014

Bishop Robert Grosseteste, detail of a window on the South transept Westernmost. St Paul’s Parish Church, Morton, Near Gainsborough. 1896

Robert Grosseteste (ca. 1168–1253), Bishop of Lincoln from 1235 to 1253, was one of the most prominent and remarkable figures in thirteenth-century English intellectual life. His views on light and matter were some 800 years in advance of his time.

If a single leitmotif runs through Grosseteste’s works, it is that of light. The notion of light occupies a prominent place in Grosseteste’s commentaries on the Bible, in his account of sense perception and the relation of body and soul, in his illuminationist theory of knowledge, in his account of the origin and nature of the physical world, and, of course, in his writings on optics. 

 

His treatise De Luce (meaning “Concerning Light”), written in 1225, describes a Universe created via a Big Bang-like explosion of light before forming into a series of nine celestial spheres.

Past Horizons:

The Ordered Universe Project, which brings together physicists, psychologists, cosmologists, Latin experts and medieval historians, has been studying the texts of Robert Grosseteste, one-time Bishop of Lincoln. The team created a fresh Latin translation, aided by other experts with knowledge of the medieval mindset and its context, before applying modern mathematical and computational techniques to Grosseteste’s equations. ….

Dr Giles Gasper, the Ordered Universe Project’s Principal Investigator and Associate Director of Durham University’s Institute of Medieval and Early Modern Studies, said: “De Luce is the earliest known attempt to describe the Universe using a coherent set of physical laws, centuries before Sir Isaac Newton.

“It proposes that the same physics of light and matter, which explain the solidity of ordinary objects, could be applied to the cosmos as a whole. In doing so it also suggests, although this was probably not apparent to Grosseteste at the time, a series of ordered universes reminiscent of the modern “multiverse” concept.

“Grosseteste’s calculations are very consistent and precise. Had he had access to modern calculus and computing methods, he surely would have used them, so that is what the team has done.”

Richard G. Bower, Tom C. B. McLeish, Brian K. Tanner, Hannah E. Smithson , Cecilia Panti, Neil Lewis, Giles E. M. Gasper, A Medieval Multiverse: Mathematical Modelling of the 13th Century Universe of Robert Grosseteste, Royal Society Journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, arXiv:1403.0769

Abstract: In his treatise on light, written in about 1225, Robert Grosseteste describes a cosmological model in which the Universe is created in a big-bang like explosion and subsequent condensation. He postulates that the fundamental coupling of light and matter gives rises to the material body of the entire cosmos. Expansion is arrested when matter reaches a minimum density and subsequent emission of light from the outer region leads to compression and rarefaction of the inner bodily mass so as to create nine celestial spheres, with an imperfect residual core. In this paper we reformulate the Latin description in terms of a modern mathematical model. The equations which describe the coupling of light and matter are solved numerically, subject to initial conditions and critical criteria consistent with the text. Formation of a universe with a non-infinite number of perfected spheres is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, the intensity of the light and the transparency of these spheres. In this “medieval multiverse”, only a small range of opacity and initial density profiles lead to a stable universe with nine perfected spheres. As in current cosmological thinking, the existence of Grosseteste’s universe relies on a very special combination of fundamental parameters.

God is an hypothesis and a mathematician is a linguist

May 6, 2014

Science discovers, engineering invents.

Eyes are to vision as language is to discovery.

To be discovered it must first be imaginable.

To describe and communicate what can be imagined needs language.

To be “discovered” requires that something imagined in a language be “sensed” (observed or measured or calculated or inferred).

Something imagined to exist but not yet discovered is a faith – an hypothesis.

Without the attribute of hearing, there is no sound.

Discoveries need a suitable language to first describe them before they can be found (Mathematics, Chemistry, Algebra, Logic….).

Language is an invention and can not be discovered.

The application of discovered science to the manufacturing of artefacts is engineering.

Mathematics is a language and a mathematician is a linguist (an engineer).

Logic is a language and a logician is a philosopher.

Philosophers imagine and describe but neither discover nor invent.

Music is a science and a musician is a scientist.

Painting (or sculpture) is engineering and the artist is an engineer.

Medicine is a science but a practising physician is an engineer.

The symbol for a thing is not the thing.

God is an hypothesis and a mathematician is a linguist.

 

Israel moves closer to constitutional apartheid

May 5, 2014

John Kerry caused a bit of a fuss a few days ago by using the apartheid word with regard to Israel.

With immediate pressure from the Jewish lobbies in the US, he backed away from his use of the word. But there is little doubt that he meant it and that Israel – which already has two classes of citizenship in practice – is moving closer to a form of constitutionally sanctioned differentiation of nationality for Jews and non-Jews. Which is indistinguishable from a separate treatment of peoples by religion. Constitutionally sanctioned, religious discrimination it surely will be. Apartheid is not too strong a word.

Guardian

Binyamin Netanyahu will push ahead with a rare change to Israel’s basic laws – which amount to the country’s constitution – to insist Israel is “the nation state of one people only – the Jewish people – and of no other people”.

At Sunday’s weekly cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said the civil rights of minorities, including Arabs, would be guaranteed, and the move was vital at a time when aspects of Israel’s legitimacy were “under a constant and increasing assault from abroad and at home”. …

The proposed law would be in addition to Israel’s declaration of independence of May 1948 – the anniversary of which is celebrated on Tuesday – which defines Israel as a Jewish state.

Most of Israel’s basic laws deal with procedural issues relating to elections, the appointment of the prime minister, state payments and the administration of the judiciary, but some laws have been more controversial, including the 1980 law that designated Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Despite the intention that the new law should guarantee full equal rights, critics say it strays into contentious territory in its explicit definition which, regardless of passport and citizenship, would codify a differential notion of nationhood.

Every religion which claims some kind of special position for its own adherents – inevitably and of necessity – denigrates and sanctions discrimination against all who do not follow the “true faith”. Which is of course the fundamental weakness of every organised religion which claims to be the “true faith”. There are as many Heavens as there are organised religions.

A “faith” – by definition – is unproven and unprovable and its “truth” is indemonstrable.

Another Clinton, another Bush (2)

May 4, 2014

The US Presidential Election is one of the great entertainment events of our time and the 2016 aspirants – declared and undeclared – are getting into position. I am looking forward to an exciting 6 months in 2016; perhaps not as exciting as in 2008 (Obama > Clinton v. McCain ± Palin) but surely not as boring as in 2012 (Obama/Romney). From an entertainment perspective I’m hoping for a Bush – Clinton battle. It could be quite interesting with Clinton attacking George Bush’s legacy and Jeb Bush pouring scorn on Obama’s non-accomplishments! Bill Clinton could be a a hidden flaw in his wife’s stable while Jeb Bush will have to keep his elder brother out of sight!!

Even in our various forms of democracy around the world, “hereditary” politicians have replaced the hereditary barons and kings of old. This is not just in India or Malaysia but also in Japan and across Europe and in the US. Dynastic politics in the US is not new and the passing of political positions of power – always subject to electoral victories – to marital partners or siblings or offspring happens quite often. A year ago a Hilary Clinton – Jeb Bush battle in 2016 seemed – at least – plausible. Now with 2 years to go the room for complete outsiders to emerge is shrinking. It is still very early of course. Each has still to first stand for and win their party’s nomination. Yet judging by the pairings that the polls envisage, the likelihood of a Clinton – Bush fight has just increased.

As of today Clinton would trounce Bush. But things could be much closer in two years. Though there seems to be no Democratic candidate to challenge Clinton, she will likely have to overcome the burden of the negative perception of the Obama years. While the perception of the Reagan years is of economic well-being at home and the Cold war victory abroad, the perception of the Obama years will be quite different. They will be seen as being long on hype and short on substance. A period of economic malaise at home and ineffectual foreign policy abroad. If Obama’s last two years in office continue to be as pedestrian and exhibit the same caution as the preceding six then, Hilary Clinton will have a significant incumbent factor against her.

Jeb Bush is not even the front-runner in the Republican party. He has not yet declared that he will run. But he may well be perceived as being more politically astute than even his father was and far more intelligent than his brother (though that is not saying very much).

Washington Post: 

The 2016 Republican presidential nominating battle is shaping up as the most wide-open in a generation, with a new Washington Post-ABC News poll showing five prospective candidates within four percentage points of one another at the top and a half-dozen more in the mix.

The picture is very different on the Democratic side, where former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton is the clear front-runner. In a hypothetical matchup, Clinton leads former Florida governor Jeb Bush — seen by many GOP establishment figures as the party’s strongest general-election candidate — 53 percent to 41 percent.

Fox News:

A new poll that looked at how Florida registered voters would cast their ballots in a 2016 Republican primary, former Gov. Jeb Bush led by about a 2-to-1 margin over other GOP contenders.

Bush leads in the hypothetical GOP contest with 27 percent compared to 14 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 7 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. As for other GOP hypothetical candidates, including U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, none received more than 6 percent.

But when the poll included former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the mix, she beat any potential Republican challenger in a head-to-head match-up, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. In a potential faceoff between the former First Lady and Bush, Clinton snatched 49 percent support compared to 41 percent support for the former governor.

Politico:

The biggest parlor game on Wall Street and in corporate boardrooms these days is guessing whether former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will run for president and save the GOP’s old establishment base from its rising populist wing.

The second most popular game is guessing what happens if Jeb says no. …….. if Bush doesn’t run, the list of Republican saviors could be short. Some donors fear Christie will never overcome the Bridgegate scandal. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin so far seems more inclined to stay in the House than to run for president. And to varying degrees, other candidates — such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Govs. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and John Kasich of Ohio — are either unknown or untrusted.

MH370: Very short preliminary report issued – could have been “laundered”

May 2, 2014

The Malaysian government has on 1st May released its preliminary report on the disappearance of MH370. The report is remarkably short (just 5 pages), raises more questions than it answers and could be heavily “laundered”. The material released includes:

  1. a Malaysia Air Accident Investigation Bureau report dated April 9th: MH370 Preliminary Report
  2. Cargo manifest: MH370 Cargo Manifest and Airway Bill
  3. audio recordings of the cockpit conversations with air traffic control
  4. a passenger seating plan

but more questions are raised than are answered.

  • It took almost 4 hours after the last voice contact for the alarm to be raised.
  • When search and rescue was called for the military were not brought into the loop.
  • The Military ignored what they apparently did pick up on radar but classified as being “friendly”.
  • The cargo contained over 2 tons (2453 kgs) of “lithium-ion batteries” (p. 5 of the cargo manifest). How was this possible when lithium-ion batteries were only to be carried on cargo planes?:

Boeing on-transport-of-lithium-batteries 042013

On January 1, 2013, changes to ICAO’s rules associated with transporting lithium batteries by air came into effect. These changes, intended to further enhance safe carriage, include required training for shippers; compliance checks prior to loading and stowage of lithium batteries aboard airplanes; and pilot notification of the presence, location, and quantity of most lithium battery shipments aboard the
airplanes. . ….
On February 13, 2013, ICAO issued a fast track amendment to the technical instructions to rescind
permission allowing lithium ion airplane batteries up to 35kg to be shipped on passenger airplanes This amendment will restrict air transport of lithium ion airplane batteries to cargo-only airplanes. Boeing and its suppliers were already in compliance with this standard. The technical instructions which had become effective on January 1, 2013 allowed airline operators the flexibility to transport lithium ion airplane batteries on either passenger or cargo-only airplanes.

Analysts who listened to the recordings for NBC News did not know why they were edited, but discovered at least four clear breaks in the audio that indicated edits.

The report is silent on most things. Were the passengers incapacitated due to the height excursion? Was there a height excursion? There is nothing in the material released to contradict the speculation that this was a deliberate act to prevent some passengers and some cargo from ever reaching Beijing.

Malaysian Insider

1. Why didn’t the DCA or the Kuala Lumpur Air Traffic Control Centre inform the Malaysian military that the MAS passenger jet was missing after it received a query from the Ho Chi Minh air traffic control?

2. Why the four-hour gap before initiating the search and rescue? Was it due to waiting for Malaysia Airlines to confirm that the plane was indeed missing?

3. Why the confusion that it was in Cambodian air space? Was that mystery ever solved?

4. Why did the military radar operator categorise an aircraft, now believed to be flight MH370, as a friendly aircraft as it travelled in a westerly direction that Saturday morning?

5. Did the military radar operator check with DCA or civilian air traffic controllers before designating that mystery aircraft as friendly?

6. Why did the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) deny and then confirm a report that it believed the aircraft did an “air turn back” when Hishammuddin’s statement last night clearly showed the authorities were aware of an aircraft making a turn-back?

…. But the five-page preliminary report issued last night is scant on such details.

Global television news channel CNN reported last night that the equivalent preliminary report on Air France 447 was 128 pages long. “That report, produced by France’s aviation safety agency just one month after the plane went missing in 2009, offered specific details on communication between various air traffic control centres.

“Flight 447 was found more than a year later in the Atlantic Ocean; all 228 people on board had died,” CNN reported.

It also said that a preliminary report by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau into the Qantas engine explosion in 2010 ran more than 40 pages, including diagrams and charts. 

Marc Hauser (et al including Chomsky) is back on language evolution

May 1, 2014

The rehabilitation of Marc Hauser continues and he along with many others have just published a review about language evolution in Frontiers in Psychology.  Links to the Abstract and the paper (provisional) are given below but they argue that the “explosion of research in the last 40 years” has made little progress. Essentially, they say (to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld) :

With regard to the biological evolution of language, we don’t know much and we don’t even know what we don’t know. But now we can at least list some areas that we know that we don’t know. 

Hauser is the lead author and gives his affiliation as Risk Eraser which is engaged in brain training for kids at risk.

Marc D. Hauser, Charles Yang, Robert C. Berwick, Ian Tattersall, Michael Ryan,Jeffrey Watumull, Noam Chomsky and Richard Lewontin, The mystery of language evolution, Front. Psychol., doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00401

Abstract: Understanding the evolution of language requires evidence regarding origins and processes that led to change. In the last 40 years, there has been an explosion of research on this problem as well as a sense that considerable progress has been made. We argue instead that the richness of ideas is accompanied by a poverty of evidence, with essentially no explanation of how and why our linguistic computations and representations evolved. We show that, to date, 1) studies of nonhuman animals provide virtually no relevant parallels to human linguistic communication, and none to the underlying biological capacity; 2) the fossil and archaeological evidence does not inform our understanding of the computations and representations of our earliest ancestors, leaving details of origins and selective pressure unresolved; 3) our understanding of the genetics of language is so impoverished that there is little hope of connecting genes to linguistic processes any time soon; 4) all modeling attempts have made unfounded assumptions, and have provided no empirical tests, thus leaving any insights into language’s origins unverifiable. Based on the current state of evidence, we submit that the most fundamental questions about the origins and evolution of our linguistic capacity remain as mysterious as ever, with considerable uncertainty about the discovery of either relevant or conclusive evidence that can adjudicate among the many open hypotheses. We conclude by presenting some suggestions about possible paths forward.

Not knowing something we don’t know at least moves it into the realm of things we know we don’t know and as such is quite valuable. 
The very readable paper (provisional) is available hereHauser Provisional Evolution of language

Russian maps already include Crimea

May 1, 2014

The Russian language site of the Ministry of Defense has not wasted much time in including Crimea as part of the Southern Defence Region. The English language website does not – yet – include the change.

Gen. Sergei Shoigu - Minister of Defense

Gen. Sergei Shoigu – Minister of Defense

It seems to be just a matter of time before parts of Eastern Ukraine also are included. I see that many US and European sources are seeing this “annexation”  of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine as Russian aggression. The Russians have certainly been opportunistic but I believe it has been aggressive EU expansionism and fairly incompetent EU Foreign Policy formulation and implementation which has initiated the violent reaction from the local Russian-speaking population. As the WSJ put it:

The seeds of EU policy disarray were sown in the divisions among the EU’s 28 member states—as well as the disinclination of most European countries to view Ukraine as a test of geopolitical importance. There was a yawning difference between the efforts of Vladimir Putin’s Russia to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence and what Europe was prepared to do to tempt what many regard as a country of major strategic significance into the Western fold. …….. Much criticism of Europe’s policy disarray has been directed to the EU institutions in Brussels, the bloc’s foreign-policy head Catherine Ashton and its enlargement chief, Stefan Füle. But it is difficult for Brussels to get out ahead of its biggest member states on foreign-policy issues—and many governments were cautious.

The fact that the EU turned a blind eye to the the growth of the neo-Nazi, right-wing fanatics only fuelled the fears of the ethnic Russians. The de facto EU support – with US acquiesence – for openly corrupt “opposition” politicians in Ukraine did not much help either. It should not have required much deep analysis to conclude that Russia would not stand idly by when the ethnic Russians felt threatened. But the multiple and fractured views of the 28 EU states does not allow much rational analysis.

Russian Ministry of Defence Maps - Russian version already includes Crimea

Russian Ministry of Defence Maps – Russian version already includes Crimea (image SvD)

Image comparison: Svenska Dagbladet.

Förster (continued) – Linearity of data had a 1 in 508×10^18 probability of not being manipulated

May 1, 2014

The report from 2012 detailing the suspicions of manufactured data in 3 of Jens Förster’s papers has now become available. förster 2012 report – eng

The Abstract reads:

Here we analyze results from three recent papers (2009, 2011, 2012) by Dr. Jens Förster from the Psychology Department of the University of Amsterdam. These papers report 40 experiments involving a total of 2284 participants (2242 of which were undergraduates). We apply an F test based on descriptive statistics to test for linearity of means across three levels of the experimental design. Results show that in the vast majority of the 42 independent samples so analyzed, means are unusually close to a linear trend. Combined left-tailed probabilities are 0.000000008, 0.0000004, and 0.000000006, for the three papers, respectively. The combined left-tailed p-value of the entire set is p= 1.96 * 10-21, which corresponds to finding such consistent results (or more consistent results) in one out of 508 trillion (508,000,000,000,000,000,000). Such a level of linearity is extremely unlikely to have arisen from standard sampling. We also found overly consistent results across independent replications in two of the papers. As a control group, we analyze the linearity of results in 10 papers by other authors in the same area. These papers differ strongly from those by Dr. Förster in terms of linearity of effects and the effect sizes. We also note that none of the 2284 participants showed any missing data, dropped out during data collection, or expressed awareness of the deceit used in the experiment, which is atypical for psychological experiments. Combined these results cast serious doubt on the nature of the results reported by Dr. Förster and warrant an investigation of the source and nature of the data he presented in these and other papers.

Förster’s primary thesis in the 3 papers under suspicion is that the global versus local models for perception and processing of data which have been studied and applied for vision are also also valid and apply to the other senses.

1. Förster, J. (2009). Relations Between Perceptual and Conceptual Scope: How Global Versus Local Processing Fits a Focus on Similarity Versus Dissimilarity. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 138, 88-111.

2. Förster, J. (2011). Local and Global Cross-Modal Influences Between Vision and Hearing, Tasting, Smelling, or Touching. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 140, 364-389.

The University of Amsterdam investigation has called for the third paper to be retracted:

3. Förster, J. & Denzler, M. (2012). Sense Creative! The Impact of Global and Local Vision, Hearing, Touching, Tasting and Smelling on Creative and Analytic Thought.  Social Psychological and Personality Science, 3, 108-117 (The full paper is here: Social Psychological and Personality Science-2012-Förster-108-17 )

Abstract: Holistic (global) versus elemental (local) perception reflects a prominent distinction in psychology; however, so far it has almost entirely been examined in the domain of vision. Current work suggests that global/local processing styles operate across sensory modalities. .As for vision, it is assumed that global processing broadens mental categories in memory, enhancing creativity. Furthermore, local processing should support performance in analytic tasks. Throughout separate 12 studies, participants were asked to look at, listen to, touch, taste or smell details of objects, or to perceive them as wholes. Global processing increased category breadth and creative relative to analytic performance, whereas for local processing the opposite was true. Results suggest that the way we taste, smell, touch, listen to, or look at events affects complex cognition, reflecting procedural embodiment effects. 

My assumption is that if the data have been manipulated it is probably a case of “confirmation bias”.  Global versus local perception is not that easy to define or study for the senses other than vision – which is probably why they have not been studied. Therefore the data may have been “manufactured” to conform with the hypothesis that “the way we taste, smell, touch, listen to, or look at events does affect complex cognition and global processing increases category breadth and creativity relative to analytic performance, whereas local processing decreases them”. The hypothesis becomes the result.

Distinctions between global and local perceptions of hearing are not improbable. But for taste? and smell and touch?? My perception of the field of social psychology (which is still a long way from being a science) is that far too often improbable hypotheses are dreamed up for the effect they have (not least in the media). Data – nearly always by sampling groups of individuals – are then found/manipulated/created to “prove” the hypotheses rather than to disprove them.

My perceptions are not altered when I see results from paper 3 like these:

Our findings may have implications for our daily behaviors. Some objects or people in the real world may unconsciously affect our cognition by triggering global or local processing styles; while some may naturally guide our attention to salient details (e.g., a spot on a jacket, a strong scent of coriander in a soup), others may motivate us to focus on the gestalt (e.g., because they are balanced and no special features stand out). It might be the case then that differences in the composition of dishes, aromas, and other mundane events influence our behavior.We might for example attend more to the local details of the answers by an interview candidate if he wears a bright pink tie, or we may start to become more creative upon tasting a balanced wine. This is because our attention to details versus gestalts triggers different systems that process information in different ways.

The description of the methods used in the paper give me no sense of any scientific rigour –  especially those regarding smell – and I find the entire “experimental method” quite unconvincing.

Participants were seated in individual booths and were instructed to recognize materials by smelling them. A pretest reported in Förster (2011) led to the choice (of) tangerines, fresh soil, and chocolate, which were rated as easily recognizable and neutral to positive in valence (both when given as a mixture but also when given alone). After each trial, participants were asked to wait 1 minute before smelling the next sample. In Study 10a, in the global condition, participants were presented with three small bowls containing a mixture of all three components; whereas in the local condition, the participants were presented with three small bowls, each containing one of the three different ingredients. In the control condition, they had to smell two bowls of mixes and two bowls with pure ingredients (tangerines and soil) in random order.

A science it is certainly not.