The k2p blog

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The muddle continues.

The New York Times questions why the military did not react:

Military radar then detected an unidentified aircraft at several points, apparently headed west across the Malaysian peninsula and out into the Indian Ocean, the head of the country’s air force told reporters. The last detected location was hundreds of miles to the west of where search and rescue efforts were initially focused. The military took no immediate action on Saturday to investigate the unidentified blips, whose path appeared to take the aircraft near the heavily populated island of Penang, and only later realized the significance of the radar readings.

Or did they react in some crazy knee-jerk fashion …?

There is something not quite right about the military story. It could just be incompetence or it could be something else.

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Malaysia’s defence and acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein (a cousin of the Prime Minister) just stated at the press conference that crew members homes were not “raided”. Now the Home Minister (Ahmad Zahid Hamidi) has announced that police did indeed visit their homes and families of crew members have indeed been questioned in a “search for clues”!!!!

The lack of command and control structure is apparent.

Reuters carries an analysis of the systemic ills in Malaysia.

The ruling United Malays National Organisation has long been criticized, including by some of its own members, for cronyism, an authoritarian streak and breeding a political culture in which loyalty is prized over talent. Majority ethnic Malays have benefited from a system of economic and social privileges that has steadily alienated ethnic Chinese and Indians, who make up large minorities in the nation of 29 million people.

…. Malaysia’s response has been overseen personally by Prime Minister Najib Razak, who put his cousin – the defense and acting transport minister Hishamuddin Hussein – in charge of day-to-day operations and interaction with the media. …… 

It goes on to warn that China may well fill the vacuum left by the lackadaisical approach to maritime awareness:

Bowers, the Southeast Asia specialist, said Malaysia’s apparent mishandling of the situation could have long-term strategic consequences in a region where China’s economic and military might is growing rapidly. “They have no maritime domain awareness and it doesn’t look like they have a strong command and control structure and they’re not well coordinated with friends. Sadly, that’s what the MH370 situation demonstrates,” he said of Malaysia.

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A new press conference is under way:

• Day 6, 12 countries searching, 40+ships, 40+aircraft >>> nothing new
• search continues – both eastwards and westwards
• Rolls Royce and Boeing received no information from the plane after 1.07am on Saturday morning.
• police had not raided the homes of crew members (but it is implied that some kind of investigation is ongoing)
• the Chinese satellite images were “released by mistake” and without authorisation says Chinese Ambassador statement
• The report of 4 hours of continued flying is “inaccurate” — is just the reported time duration inaccurate?

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Was the plane shot down by mistake? If the military picked up the plane on radar how was it determined to be “friendly”? Seems incredible but it is day 6 and ……….

CCTV Twitter stream

CCTV 1

CCTV 2

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The WSJ says that data automatically downloaded for maintenance from the B777 engines suggest that the plane was in the air for 4 hours

Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.

Four hours could have taken the plane to India or to the North-Western coast of Australia.

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They are not compelling but the proximity of the suspected crash site from the Chinese satellite images to the location reported by an oil rig worker who saw a burning aircraft adds some credibility to the theory that the plane went down along its projected flight path. Probably soon after the last reported contact. But why there is so little surface wreckage remains unanswered.

The above image shows the approximate coordinates given by a New Zealand oil rig worker who believes he may have seen flight MH370 crash. The lower image plots the coordinates given by Chinese authorities of the large pieces of debris spotted by satellite on Sunday March 9. Photograph: /Map data : AutoNavi, Google, Kingway, MapIT, ZENRIN (via The Guardian)

The Chinese satellite images are from Sunday but there is no wreckage at the location now.

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Further examples of the “incompetence” of the Malaysian authorities comes from this Washington Post article showing doctored pictures of the two Iranians who travelled on false passports. It is said to be a photocopying error and nothing malicious by the Malaysian police. maybe not malicious  but pretty incompetent.

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UPDATE: 2200 CET 12th March — CNN reports from a Chinese agency: “A Chinese satellite looking into the missing Flight 370 “observed a suspected crash area at sea.” CNN says that some pieces which could have been large pieces of wreckage were observed in satellite images from Sunday. The suspected crash site is in the vicinity of the last known position of the aircraft.

Images were published by the Chinese State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND), and dated March 9. They show a suspected crash site in the South China Sea, not far off the plane’s projected flight path. They show three large pieces at sea, the largest of which, according to SASTIND, measured 24m by 27m.

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What on earth is going on?

UPDATE! It is still a few hours to first light in Malaysia and it is now over 5 days. 

Now they are calling in the witchdoctors! And an idiot shaman – who happens to be a muslim – is allowed by the international airport authorities to make a play for the headlines. As if Malaysia is not facing enough ridicule. What were they thinking?

The mystery surrounding the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has captured the attention of a well-known ‘bomoh’ (shaman), Ibrahim Mat Zin. Ibrahim, who is known as Raja Bomoh Sedunia Nujum VIP, arrived at the KL International Airport (KLIA) today, claiming to be invited by one of the country’s top leaders, to help locate the missing plane using a spiritual method and prayer. “We use fish trap hook and a bamboo binocular to look and ask for the victims to be found as soon as possible,” he told reporters here today. He was also seen to have performed a prayer at the KLIA entrance. “During my prayer, my eyes hurt and my vision turned black. I think the plane is still in the air or has crashed into the sea. I will come back here (to KLIA) in another two days after performing my prayers and I will bring something,” he said.

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Just when I thought that the Malaysian authorities would begin to get their act together, they seem to be going from bad to worse. Fishermen retrieved it and kept it safe until the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency managed to sink what may have been a life raft from the ill-fated plane.

Today’s long delayed press conference is just over. Nothing new. It has been over 100 hours.

We are not confused. We know that we don’t know. It may have turned back or it may not have. It could be to the East or it could be to the West or it could be to the North West. We have to check if we knew about Boeing’s warnings about the B777. We can’t tell you why we are looking where we are. We don’t know what we don’t know. We are baffled there was no distress call.

The tragedy is now containing elements of farce from the Malaysian authorities.

MalayMail: 

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 — A brief flash of hope when fisherman discovered what they thought was a raft from missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 turned to despair when maritime authorities sank the craft in their attempt to recover it. 

According to the New Straits Times today, the yellow-and-black life raft emblazoned with the word “BOARDING” was spotted by a group of fishermen near Port Dickson in Negri Sembilan yesterday, who then alerted authorities.

“We managed to tie it to our boat as we feared it would sink due to the damage,” Azman Mohamad, one of the finders, told the newspaper.

Their fears proved real when the team dispatched from the Kuala Linggi Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) to retrieve the craft promptly sent it under the waves.

The report did not specify if the raft was now permanently lost.

The epidemic of official contradictions is now extending to the Chinese authorities:

Economic Times: China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that its aircraft are not conducting searches over land for a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner but that it was expanding searches at sea. Ministry spokesman Qin Gang made the statement at a regular press briefing. Earlier in the day the chief of China’s civil aviation authority said that searches would be broadened to include land areas. 

UPDATE:

AFP: “Total Incompetence”

“It’s bad enough for a wide-body jet to go missing with 239 people on board, but then for the responsible country’s government and aviation agencies to handle the associated information with total incompetence is unforgivable,” said David Learmount from industry magazine Flightglobal.

There is more than a hint of incompetence in the air. Now the search area is being extended to the Andaman Sea and the vicinity of Japan! Japan and India have confirmed they are to join the search at the request of Malaysia.

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It is now Day 5 since the disappearance of MH370 and Malaysian authorities are not giving the impression that they know what they are doing. The plane that was “found” has been “unfound”. The Chief of the Air Force has “unsaid” what he is reported to have said yesterday. He now denies that he said that the plane had been tracked to the Straits of Malacca.

(Reuters) – Malaysia’s air force chief denied a media report that the military last tracked a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner over the Strait of Malacca, far from where it last made contact with civilian air traffic control when it disappeared four days ago.

“I wish to state that I did not make any such statements,” air force chief Rodzali Daud said in a statement on Wednesday.

Now searches are including land masses for the first time.

(Reuters) – China’s air force will add two planes to the search for a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner, the country’s civil aviation chief said on Wednesday, adding that search and rescue efforts would be broadened to include land areas.

High ranking Malaysian officials are distinguishing themselves by contradicting their earlier statements. The statement by the Chief of the Air Force is just the latest in a series of mis-statements.

Malaysian blog comments are scathing in their criticism of the incompetence of their authorities. Just a couple of examples from Malaysiakini:

these donkeys don’t even know whether the plane flew east or west from KLIA! The whole world is laughing at us.

Real stupid….DCA says five bagages were removed from plane and now Some idiot says four never check in…..?? Whose bagage that they checked then ?? 

It all started with the Home Minister who felt it necessary to protect himself by blaming immigration officials. There are suggestions of incompetence as Vietnam calls off part of its search because of lack of response and clarity from Malaysia.

The Guardian:

… this update on how the search progressed today:

The search for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight was descending into confusion and acrimony on Wednesday as Vietnam called off part of its search pending further information from Malaysia.

As families spent a fifth day waiting for news of flight MH370, which vanished with 239 people on board, disagreements within the international search operation were surfacing and Malaysian officials failed to clarify the aircraft’s last known movement

Vietnam has also halted part of their search efforts:

Vietnam said it had halted its air search and scaled back a sea search while it waited for Malaysia to offer more detail.

…. One of the issues that stands out is the contradictions made by different Malaysian authorities involved in the investigation. As they write:

Only two are known to have been travelling on stolen passports. Both are thought to be Iranian, probably seeking asylum in Europe, Interpol’s secretary general has said.

There was confusion earlier because the Malaysian home minister had described them as appearing to be Asian but was then contradicted by the civil aviation chief, who appeared to suggest that one of the men looked like the black Italian footballer Mario Balotelli. Most journalists present took that to mean that he was black, although the Ministry of Transportation later clarified that the civil aviation chief, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, had been trying to emphasise that ethnicity did not indicate nationality.

And again:

On Monday, the civil aviation chief said five people checked in but did not board and their baggage was removed accordingly. On Tuesday, the inspector general of police said that everyone who was booked on to the flight had boarded – though he then contradicted himself by saying one person had missed the flight because they got the wrong day. Malaysia Airlines says that four people were booked but never checked in.

And once more (although this change is from Malaysia Airlines):

This is perhaps the most confusing aspect of all. Malaysia Airlines repeatedly said that Subang air traffic control – which covers Kuala Lumpur airport – lost contact with the aircraft at 2.40am, almost two hours after takeoff, but later revised its last known contact to 1.30am.

……  There’s been significant criticism of the handling of the search, particularly of the comments made by Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar. The official said on Tuesday that there were four scenarios they were likely looking at: “We are looking into four areas: one hijacking, two sabotage, three psychological problems of the passengers and crew and four personal problems among the passengers and crew.” Here’s how these comments have been received:

Steve Marks, a lawyer at the US firm Podhurst Orseck, which represented relatives of victims of a SilkAir crash in Asia in 1997 and the Air France crash in 2009, said he was suspicious of information being released by Malaysia.

On Tuesday Malaysian investigators said they were still looking at a range of theories including hijacking and possible sabotage by a passenger or crew member.

Marks said: “In my opinion terrorism and pilot suicide are very remote and farfetched. It can’t be ruled out 100% but it certainly shouldn’t be the focus. That kind of speculation without proof is very damaging and hurtful to the families.”

Marks said the complete lack of any information about what happened to the plane does tended to support the view of “a complete catastrophic failure at altitude.”

Malaysian officials have started blaming the media and are complaining about their “bullying”!

UPDATE!

Now it gets eerie! 

ZEE NEWS: “the cellphones of the passengers on the missing plane were ringing, but went unanswered …..  concerned families of the missing passengers managed to connect the calls successfully, but no one picked the call.” If this is correct and the plane is in water then it cannot be very deep down.

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According to a report on the Swedish radio web-site the aircraft has been “found” (tracked) by military radar in the Malacca Straits. It is not yet completely certain that this is MH370 but the searches to the east of Malaysia have been called off.

The Malacca Straits would fit with the aircraft trying to get back to Kuala Lumpur. But the lack of communication remains a mystery.

According to Dagens Nyheter it could have come down in an area which was a “radar blind spot”. That doesn’t explain the journey to the “blind spot” of course.

Pulau Perak

Reuters:

Malaysian authorities have previously said flight MH370 disappeared about an hour after it took off from Kuala Lumpur for the Chinese capital Beijing.

At the time it was roughly midway between Malaysia’s east coast town of Kota Bharu and the southern tip of Vietnam, flying at 35,000 ft (10,670 metres).

“It changed course after Kota Bharu and took a lower altitude. It made it into the Malacca Strait,” the military official, who has been briefed on investigations, told Reuters.  …. Earlier on Tuesday, Malaysia’s Berita Harian newspaper quoted air force chief Rodzali Daud as saying the Malaysia Airlines plane was last detected by military radar at 2:40 a.m. on Saturday, near the island of Pulau Perak at the northern end of the Strait of Malacca. It was flying at a height of about 9,000 metres (29,500 ft), he was quoted as saying. ….. If the reports from the military are verified, it would mean the plane was able to maintain a cruising altitude and flew for about 500 km (350 miles) with its transponder and other tracking systems apparently switched off.