As schools and colleges have opened and partying has resumed, the number of infections have been rising.
However the deaths attributed to Covid-19 no longer stick out of the average of deaths/day (all causes).
Sweden: Covid 19 deaths no longer stick out.
October 12, 2020
Why did we start to count?
October 12, 2020Counting and the invention of numbers and the abstractions enabling mathematics are surely cognitive abilities. Counting itself involves an abstract ability. The simple act of raising two fingers to denote the number of stones or lions or stars implies first, the abstract ability to describe an observed quality and second, the desire to communicate that observation.
What led humans to counting and when?
Before an intelligence can turn to counting it must first have some concept of numbers. When and how did our ancient ancestors first develop a concept of numbers and then start counting? ……..
It seems clear that many animals do distinguish – in a primitive and elementary way – between “more” and “less, and “few” and “many”,and “bigger” and “smaller”, and even manage to distinguish between simple number counts. They show a sophisticated use of hierarchy and precedence.
Some primates show some primitive abilities when tested by humans
….. Rhesus monkeys appear to understand that 1 + 1 = 2. They also seem to understand that 2 + 1 = 3, 2 – 1 = 1, and 3 – 1 = 2—but fail, however, to understand that 2 + 2 = 4. ……
But even chimpanzees and monkeys rarely, if ever, use counts or counting in interactions among themselves. The abilities for language and counting are not necessarily connected genetically (though it is probable), but they are both certainly abilities which appear gradually as cognition increases. Mathematics is, of course, just another language for describing the world around us. Number systems, as all invented languages, need that a system and its rules be shared before any communication is feasible. It is very likely that the expressions of the abilities to count and to have language follow much the same timeline. The invention of specific sounds or gestures to signify words surely coincided with the invention of gestures or sounds to signify numbers. The step change in the size of brains along the evolutionary path of humans is very likely closely connected with the expressions of the language and the counting abilities.
The ability to have language surely preceded the invention of languages just as the ability to count preceded the expressions of counting and numbering. It is not implausible that the first member of a homo erectus descendant who used his fingers to indicate one of something, or four of something else, to one of his peers, made a far, far greater discovery – relatively – than Newton or Einstein ever did.
We must have started counting and using counts (using gestures) long before we invented words to represent counts. Of course, it is the desire to communicate which is the driving force which takes us from having abilities to expressions of those abilities. The “cooperation gene” goes back to before the development of bipedalism and before the split with chimpanzees or even gorillas (at least 9 million years ago).
The simple answer to the question “Why did we start to count?” is because we could conceive of a count, observed it and wished to communicate it. But this presupposes the ability to count. Just as with language, the ability and the expression of the ability, are a consequence of the rapid increase in brain size which happened between 3 m and 1 m years ago.
I am persuaded that that rapid change was due to the control of fire and the change to eating cooked food and especially cooked meat. The digestion of many nutrients becomes possible only with cooked food and is the most plausible driver for the rapid increase in brain size.
Raw Food not enough to feed big brains
………. our brains would still be the size of an ape’s if H. erectus hadn’t played with fire: “Gorillas are stuck with this limitation of how much they can eat in a day; orangutans are stuck there; H. erectus would be stuck there if they had not invented cooking,” she says. “The more I think about it, the more I bow to my kitchen. It’s the reason we are here.”
Courage! Science (and bean-counters) cannot control the pandemic
October 7, 2020Ten months on and I keep hearing the inane slogan “Follow the science”. But the best medical advice is floundering and is still no more than the basic common sense advice of “avoid being infected”. The simple reality is that the best our current science has to offer was unable to prevent the pandemic and is unable to curtail it or bring it under control. The Covid-19 virus cannot, at least for now, be eradicated.
While the medical fraternity is doing great things in treating those infected and is expending enormous money and energy in finding a vaccine, the epidemiological fraternity has failed spectacularly in both preventing the pandemic and in controlling or curtailing the pandemic. But more damaging is the illusion they promote that they are in control. Pretending you can when you cannot is bordering on gross negligence. Essentially they have nothing more to offer than the best advice available at the time of the Black Death almost 700 years ago.
I begin to suspect that epidemiology is more about bean-counting than about science. The political process which has relied on these bean-counters has vacillated between cowardice and courage.
A matter of perspective
October 5, 2020The view depends not upon the reflected light signals being detected but on the brain interpreting those signals.
There are those who prefer to live in fear and can only see a glass half-empty and emptying fast. They see insurmountable problems in every challenge.
There are others who see an opportunity in every obstacle and the space available to fill a glass half-full. They see a challenge in every problem.
100 years after the Spanish flu, virology still has far to go
October 4, 2020Medical science does wonders. From amazing surgical procedures to an incredible variety of drugs and a fantastic array of tools and equipment, medicine, as it is practiced today, is light years ahead of where it was in 1918 at the time of the Spanish flu. Yet, medical science has not been capable of quickly defeating the current Wuhan virus pandemic. Health care has improved beyond recognition. Compared to 100 years ago, health services can deploy a bewildering variety of drugs and equipment and therapies to treat the infected.
The effects of the current pandemic are most often compared with the effects of the Spanish flu in 1918. The flu virus was identified in 1933 and the first flu vaccine came out in 1942. However, even today the flu vaccine is thought to be effective only in a little over 50% of cases. It is estimated that the Spanish flu, over a period of 3 years killed between 25 and 39 million people and that about 500 million were infected when the global population was only about 1,800 million. Today with a global population of 7, 200 million it is estimated that at least 35 million have been infected and, so far, over 1 million are thought to have died. The pandemic has lasted 6 months and is still ongoing. The virus was identified very quickly – perhaps one month – but only after the data repressed by the Chinese government and the WHO – leaked out.
The hunt for a vaccine is only 6 months old. There are at least 300 groups actively searching for one. Around 30 proposed vaccines have entered some kind of clinical trials. Estimates of when a vaccine could be readily available range from 6 months to 2 years to never. Money is being thrown at vaccine development at unprecedented levels. Certainly some of the groups chasing a vaccine have zero chance of success but cannot resist the temptation of huge amounts of easy money.
But virology is far from a settled science. In fact, there is still debate on whether a virus is living or not. That there are 300 different groups seeking a vaccine is, itself, evidence of 300 different opinions. During the past 6 months a bewildering variety of suggestions have been made for prophylactics, remedies and cures. Every single one has come from a “medical specialist”. The best advice is still “avoid infection” (by social distancing and masks which may or may not work), and hope. There are no preventive drugs and there are no cures (beyond treating symptoms). If and when vaccines are found, they will vary in how effective they are. Estimates of how expensive a vaccine may be range from 30$ to 300$ per dose for either a one-dose or a two-dose vaccine, with immunity available for periods ranging from 3 months to 1 year after vaccination.
Everyday new “experts” are trotted out on TV. But the science is not settled and there are no experts. The simple reality is that compared to 100 years ago, this pandemic has medical science just as stymied as the Spanish flu did – but at a very much higher level of knowledge.
Indian monsoon defies Covid 19 and climate change – stays normal
October 1, 2020The monsoon season (1st June – 30th September) in India is over.
Total rainfall (957.7mm) was 8.7% above the long term average (1961 – 2010) which counts as being normal (+/- 10%).
It does not seem to have been affected by Covid 19, the US election, or alleged man-made climate change.
History is a variable
September 30, 2020Why do so many spend so much time in rewriting history?
Because, of course, history is not the immutable past but only ever a story. And rewriting and retelling stories to suit our current purposes is what we do.
Present misery is compensated for by wallowing in stories of past glories. Present failures are blamed on stories of past oppression. Present incompetence is attributed to stories of past suffering. Present stupidity is excused by stories of past undernourishment. Present duplicity is defended by stories of past exploitation. Present criminality is justified by stories of past deprivation. Present depravity is condoned by stories of past repression.
10 months with my E300e plug-in hybrid
September 29, 2020Normally I would do about 12,000 – 14,000 km in a year. Typically about 40 – 50% would have been as return trips of less than 100 km. However in these corona times this pattern has been drastically disrupted. I expect that my first year with my Mercedes E300e will see only 50% of my usual total usage. But the real change is that over 80% of my actual usage has been for return trips of less than 100km. Since April there has been only one “long” trip (480km return).
Nevertheless, I am beginning to draw some conclusions.
The battery of the Mercedes E300e has a total capacity of 13.5 kWh. The usable capacity is about 10.8 kWh. The unused capacity seems to be a permanent reserve kept for all starts and when travelling at less than about 15 km/h. What I actually get is an all-electric range of 40 – 65 km. The 40 km is when trips are predominantly short with very little regenerative charging. This goes up to as much as 65 km during return trips exceeding 150 km where the regenerative charging gives about 10 – 15 km depending upon terrain. Charging the battery (10.8 kWh) takes about 1h 45m.
The nice thing about the hybrid is that running out of battery capacity is of no concern. The petrol tank (55 litres) gives a range of over 1,000 km and is always there as the back-up for short trips which are longer than expected. For long trips the battery provides the start/stop economy and with the regenerative capacity, petrol consumption is minimised in the uneconomic range. When operating in hybrid mode the switchover between petrol and the battery, in either direction, is automatic and almost unnoticeable.
The performance in winter still remains to be seen.
Electricity consumption thus varies from about 24 kWh/ 100 km (short trips) to about 18 kWh/100 km for longer trips. Currently my petrol consumption (which is somewhat distorted by the lack of longer trips) is at about 5.1 litres /100 km.
So far so good.
Wuhan virus perspective
September 26, 2020It takes time to gain perspective.
Wuhan virus versus the Spanish Flu.
Part 2 – The brain and our senses enable language but physiology limits languages
September 22, 2020Part 1 – “Language” is discovered but “languages” are invented
Part 2 – The brain and our senses enable language but physiology limits languages
The capability for language is an evolved ability and clearly a species-specific, cognitive attribute. This capability is not digital (On/Off) but varies first along the axis of cognition and second, the ability (both cognitive and physiological) to generate and receive signals. The capability for language, discovered within ourselves, together with the need and desire to communicate meanings, has led to humans inventing specific systems of language (Khoisan clicks, proto-Indo-European, Egyptian, Sanskrit, English, Braille, mathematics, ….). There are those who claim that humans are the only species having language and while it is true that only humans have all the characteristics of language (as defined by humans), the claim reduces to that “only humans have human language”.
Language exists not because humans exist, but because entities with brains, having the cognitive capability for language and desirous of communicating, exist.
(I take communication to be the intentional transfer of information, where information consists of facts or knowledge. Defining meaning leads either to circular logic (a meaning is what is conveyed by language and language communicates meanings) or to metaphysics. For this post I take meaning to simply be any coherent thought).
Brain 1>>meaning >>encoding>>output signal>>detection>>decoding>>meaning 2>>Brain 2
There is no doubt that most animal species have communication. Whether dogs or tigers or horses or even bees or ants, individuals of many species do communicate with each other. Individuals of some few species communicate in ways which suggest they may have a rudimentary capacity for language. Within some communities of monkeys and elephants and dolphins, for example, specific, repeatable sounds are used, voluntarily and with intent, to communicate specific meanings. The sounds and their meanings are learned and shared within particular communities. Monkeys within a troop are known to use different sounds to distinguish between snakes and lions, and then to communicate warnings about their approach. Even prairie dogs make different warning sounds for different kinds of predator. They even have a specific sound to sound an “All Clear”. However monkeys are not capable of forming or communicating more complex meanings such as “The lion is closer than the snake”. Only humans, it seems, even attempt to communicate abstract meanings, including any related to time or numbers. Animals may deceive but cannot, it seems, create false meanings (lies).
In the main, animals use sound and gestures for communication. Ants may communicate by the pheromones they emit, by sounds and even by touch. However, much of this is probably involuntary. Animals generally use their olfactory sense to garner information about the world around them. They even produce smells to mark territory and generate mating information, but it does not seem that they can produce different smells, at will, for communication purposes. Elephants use infra-sound to communicate over long distances. Bats use ultra-sound not only for echo-location but also, it seems, for communication. Even tigers, it is thought, produce infra-sounds at mating time. No animal system of communication remotely approaches the sophistication of human language, but that is not to say that their capability for language is zero. The capability for language exists when any entity having a brain
- desires to communicate with another similar entity, and
- shares a code with that entity wherein a meaning (including information) is represented by a particular signal, and
- can generate such a signal at will, and
- which signal can then be detected and interpreted as the intended meaning by the other entity.
Language: A shared system whereby two or more brains can communicate by the encoding of meanings into signals, which signals can then be transmitted and received and decoded back into their meanings.
All human attempts to communicate with animals are, in fact, a tacit acknowledgement that dogs and cats and dolphins and elephants and horses do have a rudimentary capability for language. They all seem to be able to generate specific signals to communicate specific meanings to others of their species. None have speech, but they can all make the cognitive leap that a particular human signal represents a particular meaning. Sometimes they generate their own particular signals (a certain bark or a rumble or a gesture) which humans are able to interpret as representing a particular meaning. It is apparent that the capability for language of a pet dog is greater than that of sheep, but it is also clear that neither is zero. The capability for language is often conflated with the ability for speech, but it is more likely that while speech enabled and allowed for an unprecedented sophistication in the human invention and use of languages, the capability for language had already appeared long before humans came down from the trees.
When our human ancestors achieved bipedalism they had brains about the size of current day chimpanzees. Australopithecus lived in Africa between 4 and 2 million years ago and had an average cranial capacity of about 450 cc, which is comparable to that of chimpanzees. By 1.5 million years ago the homo habilis brain had grown to a size of about 600 cc. Between 1.5 million and 300,000 years ago, homo erectus had a brain volume of between 800 and 1000 cc. Modern humans have a cranial volume of about 1350 cc but this can vary in individuals from as little as 900 and up to as much as 2,000 cc. (Neanderthals, Denisovans and even homo sapiens of their time are thought to have had slightly larger cranial capacities averaging about 1400 cc). The combination of physiological wherewithal and the associated brain control needed for speech as we know it today, was probably in place during the latter stages of homo erectus. Some form of speech was then probably available for Neanderthals, Denisovans and the earliest homo sapiens. Mammals first appeared some 200 million years ago. A plausible evolutionary time-line is that the capacity for language first began to appear with creatures at least several tens of million years ago. However, the invention of well codified languages, coincident with the arrival of speech, only came within the last million years, and perhaps only within the last 100,000 years.
In any species the emergence of the capability for language must precede the invention of communication codes. The inputs to, and the outputs from, a brain are limited by the physiology available to the brain through the body it controls. Strictly, cognition, as the ability to comprehend, is not just of the brain but of a brain together with the sensory abilities it has access to for getting inputs. An entity with a brain, even in isolation, may develop cognition as long as it has access to sensory inputs. The capability for language is thus dependent on, and constrained by, the cognition available which in turn is a composite of the brain and its associated senses. This capability must then be different for brains having access to different senses. Communication is undefined without there existing more than one brain. Communication becomes possible only when one brain can generate output signals which can be detected as input by a different brain. (In theory an entity could generate signals that it could not, itself, detect). For all living creatures the band of available sensory inputs is much broader than the range of output signals that can be intentionally generated. For example all mammals can hear a much wider range of frequencies than they can generate. Our vision can differentiate shapes to a greater precision than our hands can draw. The bottleneck for the invention of languages is thus the ability to generate coded signals which can be detected and interpreted. We do not use smell or taste or even touch (except for Braille as a proxy for sight) for language because we cannot generate unique signals at will. Touch was probably discarded as a primary means for signals because communication at a distance – but within hearing distance – was preferred.
Of all the senses available to us, human languages use only sight and hearing for inputs (again excepting Braille where touch is a proxy for sight). The underlying reason is that we are unable to generate unique, coded, repeatable signals detectable by our other senses. The predominance of speech in the languages we invent is of necessity. The languages we invent are constrained primarily by the signals we can generate. An entity with a brain capable of language but a different physiology would inevitably invent languages constrained by the signals it can generate.
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