Fukushima Dai-ichi – Tracing the leaks

April 4, 2011

Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors #1 to 4 will never operate again. Politically, it is difficult to see how reactors #5 and 6 could be brought back into operation though technically it may well be feasible. But right now the focus is on finding where exactly the radiation leaks are coming from. The process of tracing all leaks and gradually bringing them all under control is likely to take months rather than weeks.

Some of the nuclear hysteria is dying down and some media attention is returning to the people affected by the quake and the tsunami. And nobody has received anything like a fatal dose of radiation from Fukushima.

And mentioning Fukushima in the same breath as Hiroshima and Nagasaki (which our instant media pundits are inclined to do) is obscene.

TEPCO seems to be getting its house in order and perhaps the efforts of Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata are having some effect.

Update from NHK:

TEPCO, is continuing its efforts to identify the exact route of the highly radioactive water flowing into the Pacific from its damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex.

TEPCO poured a white liquid into a tunnel leading to a concrete pit where the contaminated water is leaking through a crack. This operation was undertaken to determine the exact route the water is taking to the ocean from the pit, located near the plant’s Number 2 reactor.

Monday’s work follows a failed attempt on Sunday to stop the flow of contaminated water by injecting a polymer absorbent into a duct connecting the tunnel with the pit. TEPCO says it will inject the chemical again to block the duct as soon as it has identified the leakage route.

The utility company has also been working on removing radioactive water from the basements of the turbine buildings for two of the plant’s reactors.

The radioactive water in the condensers for the two reactors is being transferred to storage tanks. As soon as the condensers are emptied, the water from the reactor will be drained into them to allow work to begin to restore the reactors’ cooling systems.

Work to remove the water was begun on Sunday at reactors Number 1 and 2. A similar operation will start at the Number 3 reactor on Monday.

As a temporary measure, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency is considering setting up silt barriers near a water intake for the Number 2 reactor.

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Fukushima reactors coped with the massive quake but were overwhelmed by the tsunami wave

April 2, 2011

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Fukushima nuclear plant successfully withstood quake accelerations which were somewhat higher than had been designed for but the real damage came from the tsunami which overwhelmed the defences of the plant and then knocked out all the emergency generators (13 of them in the basement apparently). That in turn knocked out all cooling pumps and cooling functions and then the die was cast…..

Latest IAEA updates on the Fukushima nuclear accident.

image IAEA - credit Google Earth

From JAIF:

The chief executive of General Electric has stressed that the GE reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have no structural problems. Jeff Immelt spoke to NHK and other media outlets on Thursday. Some observers say the No. 1 and 2 reactors, the oldest types at the plant, have a flaw in their designs. He said the GE reactor has been in service for more than 40 years and is well tested and well-designed and has been upgraded over time. Immelt said in Washington on Thursday that he was aware of the doubts expressed about nuclear power plants. But  he said it is necessary to diversify energy sources at a time of rising oil prices. In the United States, more than 20 reactors are in use that have similar structure to the Fukushima No. 1 and 2 reactors. Questions were raised about their safety after the Fukushima reactors were damaged last month.

Meanwhile TEPCO released further information about the forces measured during the quake:

TEPCO says 3 of the plant’s 6 reactors were shaken on March 11th by tremors exceeding forces they were designed to withstand. Reactor No.2 suffered the largest horizontal ground acceleration of 550 gals, which is 26 percent stronger than the reactor’s design limit.

(A gal – is named after Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) – and is a unit of acceleration equal to 1 centimetre per second per second – 1 cm /s/s)

TEPCO says the readings were 548 gals at the No.5 reactor, about 21 percent higher than its design limit; and 507 gals at the No.3 reactor, topping the capacity by about 15 percent. The power company says the strength of ground motions were close to or within the design parameters at the remaining 3 reactors, and at all 4 reactors of the nearby Fukushima Daini nuclear plant.
The utility says it had been planning to reinforce the reactors so they could withstand horizontal shaking of 600 gals, after the government reviewed their quake-resistance standards 5 years ago. But the work was not finished.

In the event strengthening the earthquake resistance would not have helped. By all accounts the tsunami wave was more than twice the height of the existing wall defences.

Reactors 3 and 4: image TEPCO

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A new field : Pillaibooks.com

April 1, 2011

Books and the marketing of books is a new field for me – but it is fascinating and I am still a beginner at this.

I have established a new website pillaibooks.com specifically for marketing two books:

  1. 3000 Miles to Freedom by Brig. M.M Pillai MC
  2. Essence of a Manager

 

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Juholt continues his Stalinesque purge

April 1, 2011
Håkan Juholt continues with his Stalinesque purge of the Swedish Social Democrats. Male social democrats who are out of favour are being replaced on the grounds of being the wrong sex! But sex discrimination in this form is of course politically correct.
Purges continue in the Social Democratic party leader after the change. Now it is the turn  of the assigned group leader in parliament, Sven-Erik Osterberg, who was one of candidates to become the new party leader, to go.
A new leader will be appointed at the parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday next week. Who  the new team leader will be is unclear. According to Rapport’s sources  the new party leader Håkan Juholt plans to fill the post with a woman. He has been in talks with party colleagues and said that it is important to have a woman in the post  to get a reasonably even gender balance in leadership positions in the party.
Sven-Erik Osterberg wanted to remain as leader, but after talks with Håkan Juholt agreed to step down.

Earlier Ibrahim Baylan was forced to quit a Party Secretary to make way for Carin Jämtin. This was necessary since the new Party Leader was a male and had to be “balanced” by a female Party Secretary! And now the unfortunate Osterberg is also apparently of the wrong sex. Sounds as if this is yet another case of  politically correct  sex discrimination being used to implement a political purge.

In the modern Social Democrats, competence is of little value if you are the wrong sex.

Related:  Juholt, the smiling Stalin, begins the purge as the Social Democrats try to relive the past

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The dark side of black

March 31, 2011

From Kyodo News:

Radiation fears have prevented authorities from collecting as many as 1,000 bodies of victims of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami from within the 20-kilometer-radius evacuation zone around the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, police sources said Thursday.

One of the sources said bodies had been ”exposed to high levels of radiation after death.” The view was supported by the detection Sunday of elevated levels of radiation on a body found in Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, about 5 km from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

The authorities are now considering how to collect the bodies, given fears that police officers, doctors and bereaved families may be exposed to radiation in retrieving the radiation-exposed bodies or at morgues, according to the sources.

Even after the bodies are handed over to the victims’ families, cremating them could spread plumes containing radioactive materials, while burying the victims could contaminate the soil around them.

The following are the latest casualty figures related to the earthquake and tsunami that hit northeastern and eastern Japan on March 11, according to the National Police Agency as of 9 p.m. Thursday:

Number of people killed 11,532

Number of people missing 16,441


 

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A “Culture of Courage” in management — from “Essence of a Manager”

March 31, 2011

“Without fear being present, bravery and courage do not appear on stage.”

From Chapter 7,  Essence of a Manager

Courage is the subordination of fear to purpose.

A manager is perforce required to take risk. Every judgment or selection or decision he takes results in actions with an uncertain outcome. The presence of risk and the uncertainty about results inevitably give rise to apprehensions and fears. It is a manager’s task to subordinate such fears and continue with judiciously chosen actions towards his objectives. Extending his capability for taking actions and stretching the envelope of actions available to him are key elements of his core competence. It is his courage which enables him to operate in new and untried areas which are outside his comfort zone and thereby generate a steady stream of brave actions.

A manager can create a “courage space” around himself and as this expands and grows and meets other spaces of courage a “culture of courage” can develop within an organisation. ……

It has always struck me that super-heroes must be particularly devoid of courage since their fantastic abilities must mean that they have little opportunity to feel any fear. ….

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Is cash crunch just a ruse to get SAAB into Russian ownership?

March 30, 2011

While SAAB’s production has ground to a halt as supplies dry up because of non-payment of suppliers dues and SAAB’s owners Spyker Cars sees its share price drop, comes news of further efforts by the Russian financier Vladimir Antonov to gain entry as an owner of SAAB. He has been trying to get in for some time and “money on the table” could be irresistible if Spyker and SAAB are really going through a cash crunch.

Vladimir Antonov

Spyker’s report warned – a little unexpectedly – of a cash crunch last Friday. Could it be that this is an elaborate ruse between Spyker and Antonov? I am probably being a little cynical but with Russian finance I have learnt that nothing is ever as it seems and conspiracy theories are not necessarily as far fetched as they might seem. The Swedish government does not want Antonov to get in as a SAAB owner but Victor Muller and Spyker Cars do.

I suspect that the liquidity crisis at SAAB has been – at least partly – engineered by Spyker and Antonov.

SvD reports:

The Russian financier Vladimir Antonov has filed a formal application to Sweden’s National Debt Office to go in as the owner of Saab Automobile. This was confirmed by  the Debt Office and Antonov himself for TTELA.

“We can confirm that we received an application from Vladimir Antonov, yesterday  (Tuesday)  evening, but, because of commercial confidentiality, can not say what it contains, “said Daniel Barr, project manager for Saab at the Debt Office, to TTELA.
Even Vladimir Antonov confirmed briefly that he had submitted an application. Previously, he has declared that he wants to go in with capital of between 440-620 million SEK , so that  Saab and its parent company Spyker Cars NV can get a better buffer capital. Such money could be used in times of a liquidity crisis.
The Debt Office will process the application and submit a statement to the Government. The government will then makes a decision on the matter. The Debt Office does not comment on applications received.

From the Spyker financial statements presented on Friday, it appears that cash flow reduced faster than expected in late 2010 partly because of  lower sales volumes and  large investments. At the end of 2010 the company had  negative equity and a working capital of 220 million euros, equivalent to almost 2 billion Swedish krona.
Vladimir Antonov and his banking group Convers Group.have submitted the  application to the Debt Office. Oleg Sukhorukov, vice president of Convers Group, would not give any additional comments.


Vladimir Aleksandrovich Antonov (born 1975) is a Russian banker, entrepreneur and investor. In 2007 Antonov’s personal wealth was estimated at $300,000,000 which ranks him as number 182 among Russian millionaires.

In February 2011, it was announced that Spyker Cars NV, the Dutch owner of Saab Automobile, agreed to sell its sports-car unit to Vladimir Antonov. Antonov, a former Spyker chairman and shareholder, is expected to pay 15 million euros ($21 million) for the company.

In 2007, Bankas Snoras acquired 29.9% of Dutch luxury automobile manufacturer, Spyker Cars, making Vladimir Antonov the single largest shareholder in the company.

In January 2010, it was reported that General Motors was preparing to sell Saab to Spyker for a nominal fee, and that the Swedish government had agreed to guarantee loans for the purchase from the European Investment Bank (EIB). If the takeover had been successful, the Saab brand and its operations would have been largely unaffected.

Antonov’s interests (29.9% of the shares) in Spyker Cars were said to have delayed the purchase of Saab Automobile in late 2009. An investigation by the Swedish monetary agency Riksgälden and the Swedish security police Säpo had allegedly found connections between the Antonov family and organized crime, as well as involvement in money laundering. Säpo reported their findings to the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation, and shortly afterwards GM stopped further talks about the deal until the Antonov family had sold their shares in Spyker Cars.

In January 2011, it was reported that GM was preparing to reverse its decision not to allow Antonov to hold a financial interest in Spyker and Saab and allow him to invest. Antonov said that he has no “connection to any criminal people” and that he had hired an investigative firm to produce evidence that he has no criminal background.

Victor Muller Spyker cars

In December 2010, it was reported by Swedish financial newspaper, Dagens Industri, that two independent reports, one of which was commissioned by the Swedish government had shown that there was no evidence that Vladimir Antonov is guilty of any of the accusations made against him. Victor Muller, CEO of Spyker Cars, also stated that he believed Vladimir Antonov to be innocent of the accusations. Following this, Antonov acquired the sportcars division of Spyker Cars NV.

Maybe this all just to get Antonov to be a “white knight riding to SAAB’s rescue” but something does not smell right.

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TEPCO stocks are on their way to losing all value

March 30, 2011

Shares in Tokyo Electric, commonly known as TEPCO, dropped another 17.7 percent on Wednesday to 466 yen and trading was later stopped.

Chart: tepco stock 20110330

It seems inevitable that TEPCO stocks will lose all their value and will be driven to zero – unless nationalisation comes first. Now even the largest shareholders are being hit:

Shares in TEPCO’s main bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , which is also a large shareholder with a 2.7 percent holding, fell 2.1 percent.
Dai-ichi Life Insurance , which is the second-largest shareholder in TEPCO with 4.1 percent stake, rose 3 percent after Deutsche Securities said the impact of TEPCO stock price fall is limited on its embedded value, a measure of an insurer’s worth that includes the present value of future earnings from life insurance contracts.  However, Dai-ichi shares have fallen 18 percent compared with a 10.3 percent decline in the benchmark Nikkei 225 index .

There is a vacuum in the leadership of TEPCO. The President of TEPCO Masataka Shimizu has been hospitalized for high blood pressure and dizziness. Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata will take over operation of the power company. He is 70 years old and faces an unenviable task.

Tsunehisa Katsumata: kyoto photo

Tsunehisa Katsumata served as President of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc., from October 2002 to June 2008. Mr. Katsumata has been the Chairman of Tokyo Electric Power Co. Inc., since June 2008. Mr. Katsumata serves as Chairman of the Board of Federation Of Electric Power Companies of Japan. He has been an Outside Director of Sompo Japan Insurance Inc. and NKSJ Holdings, Inc. since April 1, 2010. Mr. Katsumata has been a Director of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc. since June 1996. He serves as an Outside Director at KDDI Corp. He serves as Chairman of Evaluation Committee at Japan Finance Corporation.

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Class and Diamonds from “Essence of a Manager”

March 30, 2011
A scattering of "brilliant" cut diam...

Image via Wikipedia

Class from “Essence of a Manager”:

Class is not appearance and it is not personality or charisma; it is a style and elegance of behaviour and a consistency of actions.

The cut of a diamond as an analogy for class:

Class in a person is reminiscent to me of the cut of a diamond. A master diamond cutter chooses the facets he cuts to give the most pleasing whole in accordance with his own aesthetics and to suit a particular stone. He tries to create his composition of cuts to get the most impressive combination of the brilliance (due to light reflected out from the interior) and fire (due to refracted light within the stone) that he can. He polishes the facets to get the lustre (light reflected from the surface) he wants. Raw stones have their internal characteristics and colour and flaws, which both enable and restrict what cuts are possible. The master cutter’s level of skill may further define the type and fineness and symmetry of the cuts that are feasible. He optimises between waste reductions on the one hand against size and cut of the gems resulting from a single raw stone on the other. Sometimes, and especially if some flaw exists in the stone, the cutter will sacrifice size to get an improved brilliance or fire or scintillation. He may even deliberately use a flaw to enhance the fire or he may cut away a flaw to enhance the brilliance. He may vary the cut and polish depending upon the colour and clarity of the stone. He may design his cuts to enhance the colour which is near the surface of the stone. He combines and compounds his skills with the characteristics of the stone and compensates for its flaws to create the finished gem-stone. The value of a finished diamond rests in its size and clarity and colour and above all, in its cut.

A good manager is his own master diamond cutter. His fundamental attributes are his various facets and his weaknesses are his flaws. It is his own aesthetics and his awareness of his strengths and weaknesses which lead to the manner in which he combines, compounds or compensates for his attributes. The manner of their combination leads to his behaviour which when it is then observed in the light of the society he operates in shows up as his class. His behaviour defines his class. Therefore class is not something which is or can be developed explicitly, but it develops as a consequence of an individual’s awareness of his own strengths and weaknesses. An imperfect balance of his attributes improves as he develops his weak points or compensates for them. Inevitably his behaviour develops and matures. But classy behaviour, when observed, can be emulated.  Feedback from the surrounding society about the behaviour observed can be built upon. Emulation requires more than superficial replication of a behaviour pattern. It needs the development of the fundamental attributes as well. Merely copying behaviour which is not backed up by the soundness of the underlying attributes is not sustainable. Classy behaviour when it is just faked is undertaken for the sake of appearance and not because of any conviction of what is considered the right and correct thing to do. It is then like having fake diamonds of cubic zirconia or of silicon carbide, which glitter and can deceive but which shatter if subjected to impact stress.

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Is SAAB Automobile nearing a bankruptcy?

March 30, 2011

When suppliers don’t get paid a vicious circle begins of : lack of cash >> unpaid dues>> lack of some critical supplies>> reduction of production>> stoppage of other supplies>> diminishing of trust>> withdrawal of credit >>leading to a further lack of cash. After years of living from hand-to-mouth but still producing what I consider one of the best cars on the road, SAAB automobile may now be approaching a fateful point in an illustrious history.

Svenska Dagbladet:

There are worrying signs that came out from Saab Automobile on Tuesday night. Saab may have suffered an acute liquidity crisis. Saab production, according to several sources came to a standstill on Tuesday because suppliers were not paid. Even union IF Metall’s Chairman Hakan Skött confirmed that production had stopped. And then came the news at 8pm on Tuesday night, that Saab’s advertising agency Lowe Brindfors had suspended their ongoing engagement due to nonpayment.

In recent weeks, warning bells have been ringing louder and louder. Saab’s new CFO quit before he even had time to start. And one of Saab’s heaviest funders, Pieter Heerema, who had lent 25 million U.S. dollars, recently abandoned Spyker’s board with immediate effect.

And then the CEO Jan Ake Jonsson left, oddly enough just last Friday after Spyker came up with its report – even if is due to stay until May on paper. But the issue of  of Saab’s liquidity has become serious just recently. When I asked the chairman Victor Muller last Friday in connection with the report whether Saab has enough capital to pay bills this year, he replied that “probably not”. The report also described that liquidity is lower than expected. But Muller was talking in his characteristically intense way that they will find solutions – including selling their new platform Phoenix to other automakers.

But the signals that came in Tuesday night are very worrying.

Saab could choose to put a lid on it.

It would be of great regret if SAAB Automobiles went bankrupt. But perhaps SAAB have had their day and it is time to move on.

 

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