Rescue operation in Sea of Okhotsk begins but one icebreaker stuck in the ice…

January 5, 2011
The Russian icebreakers Admiral Makarov and Mo...

Icebreakers Admiral Makarov and Moskva: Image via Wikipedia

The icebreaker Admiral Makarov has reached its destination in the Sea of Okhotsk and the rescue operation to free the ships trapped in the ice has begun. One trawler has been escorted to safety. But there are “hummocks” in the ice which is upto 2 m thick in places. The second icebreaker Magadan is now itself stuck in the ice and the Admiral Makarov is racing to its rescue.

Itar-Tass reports:

VLADIVOSTOK, January 5 (Itar-Tass)The Admiral Makarov icebreaker that took the Mys Yelizavety to the clear waters is now moving at full tilt to help the icebreaker Magadan, which took part in the escorting effort but got stuck in the ice itself. Given that the Magadan, too, has stuck in the thick ice filling the spaces of the Sakhalin Bay, the number of ships drifting amid ice floes towards the shore has again increased to five.

A total of three ships – the Sodruzhetsvo floating factory, the Bereg Nadezhny refrigerating ship, and the Professor Kizivetter, all of them registered in the port of Vladivostok – found themselves stranded in the ice December 30. They are located at a distance of eleven to twelve nautical miles away from Sakhalin’s shore. One more ship, the Anton Gurin trawler registered in St Petersburg, joined the trapped ships January 3.

The Magadan, a port area icebreaker, has the technical characteristics largely inferior to those of the Admiral Makarov. It has a length of 88 meters and a capacity of 13,000 horse-powers. The Admiral Makarov has the length of 135 meters and the capacity for 12,000 horse-powers.

A mass of ice floes has been driven into the Sakhalin Bay by northern winds. The ice is covered with hummocks and its thickness reaches 2 meters in some spots. The total number of seamen trapped by the ice at present stands at around 500. The Sodruzhestvo floating factory has the largest crew of 340 persons.

Dead birds also reported in Louisiana and Sweden and now dead fish….

January 5, 2011

Following the thousands of red winged blackbirds falling dead out of the sky in Arkansas, there are now further reports of dead birds in Louisiana and Sweden and dead fish in N. Zealand the US and Brazil.

Examiner.com

Dead birds in Louisiana; dead fish in Maryland, Brazil and New Zealand

After reports over the weekend of thousands of dead birds falling from the sky in Arkansas and around 100,000 dead fish washing up on the shores of the Arkansas River, more mysteries abound with hundreds of birds dying in Louisiana, dead fish in Maryland, dead sardines on Brazil’s beaches, and hundreds of snapper floating in New Zealand waters.

The Advocate in Baton Rouge reports that around 500 small birds, some of them starlings, have fallen out of the sky on Louisiana Highway 1 near Pointe Coupee Parish. Spokesperson for the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, Bo Boehringer, told the New York Daily News “We have sent bird carcasses to two individual labs to obtain toxicology reports.”

Expressen: (free translation)

Mysterious bird deaths in Falköping

About 40 dead birds covered the ground last night at an intersection.
– It was a horrible sight, “said a resident who discovered the birds on his
evening walk. The police did not know what the mass death could depend on.

Both emergency services and the county administration are investigating the case.

New Zealand Herald:

Hundreds of snapper dead on beaches

Fisheries officials are investigating the death of hundreds of snapper washed up on Coromandel Peninsula beaches. Beachgoers at Little Bay and Waikawau Bay found the fish – many with their eyes missing – dead on the sand yesterday.

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/220958-Brazil-100-tons-of-dead-fish-wash-up-on-shore

A survey conducted by the Federation of Fishermen’s Colony of Paraná, Paranaguá on the coast of the state, indicates that at least 100 tons of fish
(sardine, croaker and catfish) have turned up dead since last Thursday off the coast of Parana.

Probably just coincidence and with ready and natural explanations, but ……….


Qantas A380 flights to LA to restart on 17th January

January 5, 2011

While Qantas had restarted flying its A380 aircraft with Rolls Royce Trent 900 engines on  27th November after the engine failure on 4th November, its flights to Los Angeles remained grounded since the engines had not been cleared for operating at the higher thrust levels necessary for reaching LA.

Reuters reports that flights to LA could now resume on 17th January:

Qantas said on Wednesday it hoped to resume normal A380 operations from January 17 but it would still need the go-ahead from Australia’s aviation regulator before flying the superjumbo aircraft on the lucrative route……. Qantas said on Wednesday it expected to have eight A380 aircraft in the air by early February, up from five currently. The airline is scheduled to take delivery of a new A380 aircraft in mid-January and another new aircraft by early February. A third A380 currently grounded in Sydney was also due to be operating by mid-January……. Analysts estimate damages to Qantas could reach $60 million, although forecasts vary. The LA route is one of Qantas’ most profitable.

For Rolls Royce, getting Qantas back to full operation is critical to bringing this chapter to a close and to limiting at least one part of the inevitable claims that will come. They will also face claims from Airbus who announced a few days ago that they would only deliver 18 A380’s during 2010 and would not reach their already reduced target of 20 planes. This delay is put down to the extra inspections caused by the fault in Rolls Royce engines. No doubt Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa will also have claims on Rolls Royce. I still estimate that the total costs to Rolls Royce will reach $300 million.

Demographics for 2030 look bleak in Japan

January 4, 2011

Ageing Japan is becoming a lonely Japan.

By 2030 living in Japan will be a lonely experience according to the Asahi Shimbun:

  • One in three men and one in 5 women would have never married by age 50
  • 25% of men and over 40% of the total population between 50 and 70 will be living alone
  • Single-member households will be especially pronounced among men who were the children of the baby-boomer generation and who will enter middle age in 2030.
  • Single person households exceed multi-person households already and this trend will continue
  • Among women born in 1990, it is estimated that more than one-third will not bear children and that half will not have grandchildren
  • Fertility rate which was at the sustainable level of 2.1 in 1960 has been below this level since 1976 reaching a low of 1.26 in 2005
  • There will be over 300,000 people aged 100 and over
  • The ratio of just under 3 working age population for each retired person will decrease to less than 2
  • Working age population will decline by about 14 million

Japanese population development: graphic marketoracle.co.uk

Japan has few options except to open up its borders to immigration but this seems to be a subject that no political party or politician is prepared to face squarely. Instead the discussion veers off into trade alliances instead or restricting immigration to just skilled workers and only very specialised skills at that. The European experiences are often quoted as examples of the dangers of allowing immigration from Muslim countries. The extremely difficult (but flexible) residency and naturalisation regulations continue to be used to prevent the millions of immigrants from the Philippines, S. Korea, China, Indonesia and Malaysia already in the country from ever really settling in Japan. This even though all are aware that the functioning of Japanese society is already critically dependent upon these “less-skilled” workers.

That Japan needs a real leader as Prime Minister who can get the majority to face up to the difficult choices and carry them with him is apparent. There was a hope that Koizumi Jun’ichirō might be such a person when he was PM (3 times between 2001 and 2006) but he too drowned in the political quicksand. Perhaps it is a task for the Emperor together with the right Prime Minister. But it would need an Emperor prepared to appeal directly to his people and not be stifled by those of his Court.

Why Munich Re’s report on natural catastrophes in 2010 is alarmist and self-serving

January 4, 2011

Munich Re – like all insurance companies – is in the business of alarmism. The insurance business relies on the total risk perceived by all the buyers of insurance products being significantly higher than the actual risk that materialises. The bigger this difference the greater the insurance company’s profits.

In a new press release Munich Re presents its overall picture of natural catastrophes in 2010.

Several major catastrophes in 2010 resulted in substantial losses and an exceptionally high number of fatalities. The overall picture last year was dominated by an accumulation of severe earthquakes to an extent seldom experienced in recent decades.

The facts are not in doubt but Munich Re’s opinionated conclusion and the introduction of global warming into the same breath as earthquakes and extreme weather is intellectually bankrupt and blatantly self-serving:

The high number of weather-related natural catastrophes and record temperatures both globally and in different regions of the world provide further indications of advancing climate change.

Munich Re’s business is best served if the perception of risk is very high, the actual risk is much lower than than that perceived and more and more people take to insuring these exaggerated risks. Munich Re – as other insurance companies – have become expert at taking real data, blending it with unjustified opinions and then applying a totally bogus “pondus” to exaggerating the perceived risk.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fireworks killed the blackbirds

January 4, 2011

As a follow-up to my earlier post about the thousands of red-winged blackbirds which dropped dead out of the sky in Arkansas, the BBC reports that fireworks were most probably to blame:

US scientists believe fireworks may have caused thousands of birds to fall from the sky over an Arkansas town on New Year’s Eve. Karen Rowe, of the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, said the red-winged blackbirds probably flew low to avoid explosions and collided with objects.

Residents reported hearing loud fireworks just before the birds started raining from the sky. “They started going crazy, flying into one another,” said AGFC spokesman Keith Stephens. The birds also hit homes, cars, trees and other objects, and some could have flown hard into the ground.

“The blackbirds were flying at rooftop level instead of treetop level” to avoid explosions above, said Ms Rowe, an ornithologist. “Blackbirds have poor eyesight, and they started colliding with things.”

Poisoning has been ruled out after several cats and dogs that ate the dead birds suffered no ill effects, he added. However, another theory is that a violent thunderstorm could have disoriented a roost of blackbirds. Tornadoes swept through Arkansas and neighbouring states on 31 December, killing seven people.

No surprise: “Secret” technical evaluation in Indian MMRCA deal found on the street

January 4, 2011

The Times of India reports on the bizarre story of a confidential file found on the street:

Even as the race for the “mother of all defence deals” enters the last lap, two IAS (Indian Administrative Service) officers of the defence ministry are now under the scanner for the mysterious way in which a “secret” file connected to the $10.4 billion project to acquire 126 new fighters went missing and was then found by a roadside.

There is an intense battle currently in progress to win the $10 billion deal for 126 combat aircraft (MMRCA – medium multi-role combat aircraft) where the final decision is expected to be taken by March. As I have posted earlier, the technical and flight evaluations on the 6 contenders were conducted by the Indian Air Force and their highly confidential and secret report was submitted to the Ministry of Defence  by early November 2010. Many rumours circulated at the time and the word on the street was that the Eurofighter Typhoon had won the technical evaluation. However this evaluation is merely one (but important) stage in the decision making process. The strategic and financial evaluations are under way and political lobbying is building up.  Some of this lobbying is at the highest levels of government and no doubt the recent visits to India by Obama and Medvedev and Sarkozy were utilised fully.

For all the contenders the technical evaluation is what determines what is left to be done to win the contract. The details in the technical evaluation report are most important for a contender to know how to compensate for any perceived failings. I am quite sure that every contender has managed by now to obtain a copy of the technical evaluation report. (To obtain copies of confidential reports from Indian bureaucrats is not in the realm of the impossible. In my experience obtaining reports and confidential documents from clerks in government service is much more effective than any Freedom of Information application and are not subject to any redactions.) I am equally sure that all the six aircraft manufacturers would have by now developed their sales strategies and lobbying plans based on the their weaknesses as recorded in the report. But what may have been missed by some is that unofficial dissemination of the “confidential” report is an expected event. It may even have been a deliberate leakage of the report as part of the Government of India’s buying strategy.

The six are:

  1. Dassault, Rafale, France
  2. Eurofighter, Typhoon, UK, Italy, Germany and Spain
  3. Lockheed Martin, F-16IN Super Viper, US
  4. Boeing, F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, US
  5. Saab, JAS 39 Gripen, Sweden
  6. Mikoyan, MiG-35, Russia

Even though there are only 6 contenders, the number of lobbyists, sub-contractors and foreign embassy officials involved would have led to at least 100 copies of the report having been “sold” by various bureaucrats with access to the file. So I do not find it very surprising that one of the many “unsold” copies was abandoned somewhere. The value of such reports goes down sharply with time. It must have been at its most expensive immediately after it was submitted to government and before the many visits by various heads of state to Delhi. Again from my past experience of such things I would expect that the report probably had an initial “price” of around Rs 10 lakhs (about $20,000) but now some 2 months later, can probably be purchased for less than 1 lakh ($2,000).

Nobody is probably very bothered by this episode since the leakage of the report to the contenders is part of the game and already taken into consideration by the Government. In fact leakage of “perceived weaknesses” to a supplier is one of the best buying strategies to extract improvements in the supplier’s offer. The most senior bureaucrats in the Ministry of Defence are probably congratulating themselves for having managed to disseminate so many copies of the report before this particular slip-up.

But for now all the right noises will be made for public consumption. As the ToI reports:

Ordering an inquiry into the episode, defence minister A K Antony on Monday said he was “very clear that every officer has to be very careful at every stage” while dealing with the huge MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project. “We have viewed the incident seriously…the inquiry is in progress,” he said. It was last week that the “secret” file, which was earlier submitted to the MoD by IAF, went missing and was then found later in the day near Khelgaon Marg in South Delhi.

MoD was tight-lipped about the incident but sources said the file was apparently lost by the bureaucrats, one an additional secretary-rank officer and the other a director, while being taken to the Bharat Electronics Limited guest-house on Khelgaon Marg. The file was found by a security guard who then got in touch with the authorities concerned.

Sing a song of sixpence…….

January 3, 2011

Sing a song of sixpence

A pocket full of rye

Four and twenty blackbirds

Baked in a pie.

http://www.examiner.com/google-trends-in-national/dead-birds-mystery-2-000-blackbirds-fall-on-beebe-arkansas-video

Red winged blackbird: image learner.org

The death of thousands of red-winged blackbirds that fell out of the sky over the small town of Beebe, Arkansas on New Year’s Eve night is a mystery that has the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission sending the dead birds off for testing in hopes of a reasonable explanation. …..

Just how many birds died seems to vary with the Associated Press reporting that the last of the 2,000 dead birds was removed about 11 a.m. Sunday in the Beebe, a town that is approximately 40 miles northeast of Little Rock.

CNN reports that there area over 5,000 birds dead, where ” the bodies of red-winged blackbirds litter a street and field.”

Poison or illness have been ruled out and speculation is that some kind of stress – perhaps due to a hail storm, or a lightning strike or New Year fireworks  – could have caused the death of these birds. Lab results are expected to take upto a week.


No surprise: US diplomats acted as Boeing salesmen

January 3, 2011

It comes as no surprise that diplomats and government officials are heavily involved in lobbying and “advocacy” in favour of major corporations in international trade. This applies for sales of all defence equipment, commercial aircraft, major rail transport projects, nuclear and conventional power plant and -in short – virtually all large projects where jobs at the seller’s establishment are involved.

Virtually every visit of a head of government to another country reserves a great deal of time for commercial lobbying activities. Large companies look to such visits to bring purchasing decisions to a head and the months preceding such visits are periods of intense co-operation between commercial sales people, diplomats, bureaucrats and politicians in both countries. So called “agents” (essentially middle-men with “sticky” fingers) thrive on such activity.  During such periods I have seen how diplomats take directions from sales people at private companies or from the “agents”. The ability to access and trigger such “advocacy” is of huge competitive advantage for the companies involved. It is here that large international companies can bring factors outside the conventional sales criteria into play.

It is not just the US or just Boeing involved in such advocacy. Nearly every country indulges in this. The UK (British Aerospace for example), France (Areva and nuclear power or Alstom and High speed trains) or Germany (Siemens for power plants or trains or VW at car factories) are all engaged in similar advocacy. But the particular case of US diplomats acting as salesmen for Boeing is reported by the New York Times from the Wikileaks release of diplomatic cables and these reveal some of the “perks” and extra factors that are brought into play. Such as

The king of Saudi Arabia wanted the United States to outfit his personal jet with the same high-tech devices as Air Force One. The president of Turkey wanted the Obama administration to let a Turkish astronaut sit in on a NASA space flight. And in Bangladesh, the prime minister pressed the State Department to re-establish landing rights at Kennedy International Airport in New York. Each of these government leaders had one thing in common: they were trying to decide whether to buy billions of dollars’ worth of commercial jets from Boeing or its European competitor, Airbus. And United States diplomats were acting like marketing agents, offering deals to heads of state and airline executives whose decisions could be influenced by price, performance and, as with all finicky customers with plenty to spend, perks.

To get the interest of their own politicians and governments every large corporation knows that the magic key is being able to link the sale being pursued to jobs in the home-country and especially in the constituency of the home-politician. “Job creation” is the magic mantra that no politician can resist or can afford to ignore. The use of dubious agents or the use of “undue” influence or the flow of a few percent of the contract value  through some side-channels or the provision of some “perks” to politicians and bureaucrats through the entire chain from supplier to purchaser become critical and pervasive.

When the potential of job creation is involved, questions of ethics are rarely raised and the system of high level corruption is perpetuated.

NYT report

Unusually thick ice traps ships in the Sea of Okhotsk

January 3, 2011

Itar-Tass reports that the Magadan icebreaker is struggling through 2-meter-thick ice to reach stuck ships in the Sea of Okhotsk and another ice-breaker is on its way. This reports talks of 3 ships being trapped but other reports speak of 10 ships with over 600 crew being trapped.

Line icebreaker ADMIRAL MAKAROV: image fesco.ru

VLADIVOSTOK, January 2 (Itar-Tass) — The Magadan icebreaker of the Far Eastern Shipping Company is struggling its way through the two-meter-thick ice to rescue three ships stuck in the ice in the Sakhalin Bay of the Sea of Okhotsk, a spokesman for the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk sea rescue coordination center said on Sunday.

With a speed of 2.6 knots the icebreaker develops in conditions of the 10 point ice, she has to master five miles to reach the stuck ships, the spokesman said.

The Sodruzhestvo mother ship, the Professor Kizevetter research vessel and the Bereg Nadezhdy refrigerated cargo ship are trapped in the ice eleven to twelve miles off the Khabarovsk coastline. Their attempts to break free have been vain ….. According to the Sakhalin regional emergencies administration, there is no threat to the lives and health of crew members of the three ships. Of the three stuck ships, the Sodruzhestvo has the largest crew of 340 people. The ship has food reserves for 75 days.

The Admiral Makarov, the biggest icebreaker in Russia’s Far East, is also heading to join the rescue operations. She is expected to reach the Sakhalin Bay on January 4.

The BBC also carries a report also quoting Itar-Tass but their facts seem to have morphed along the way. Two metres is converted to 12 inches by the BBC calculator!!!!

map

Sea of Okhotsk: image BBC

 

Rescue efforts are under way to evacuate more than 600 crew on 10 ships trapped in ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. The ice is up to 30cm (12 inches) thick in some places, according to the Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

The temperature in the area is -22C, according to Itar-Tass, and forecasts suggest it will fall even lower.

An Itar-Tass update is here:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15834220&PageNum=0