Fireworks killed the blackbirds

January 4, 2011

As a follow-up to my earlier post about the thousands of red-winged blackbirds which dropped dead out of the sky in Arkansas, the BBC reports that fireworks were most probably to blame:

US scientists believe fireworks may have caused thousands of birds to fall from the sky over an Arkansas town on New Year’s Eve. Karen Rowe, of the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, said the red-winged blackbirds probably flew low to avoid explosions and collided with objects.

Residents reported hearing loud fireworks just before the birds started raining from the sky. “They started going crazy, flying into one another,” said AGFC spokesman Keith Stephens. The birds also hit homes, cars, trees and other objects, and some could have flown hard into the ground.

“The blackbirds were flying at rooftop level instead of treetop level” to avoid explosions above, said Ms Rowe, an ornithologist. “Blackbirds have poor eyesight, and they started colliding with things.”

Poisoning has been ruled out after several cats and dogs that ate the dead birds suffered no ill effects, he added. However, another theory is that a violent thunderstorm could have disoriented a roost of blackbirds. Tornadoes swept through Arkansas and neighbouring states on 31 December, killing seven people.

No surprise: “Secret” technical evaluation in Indian MMRCA deal found on the street

January 4, 2011

The Times of India reports on the bizarre story of a confidential file found on the street:

Even as the race for the “mother of all defence deals” enters the last lap, two IAS (Indian Administrative Service) officers of the defence ministry are now under the scanner for the mysterious way in which a “secret” file connected to the $10.4 billion project to acquire 126 new fighters went missing and was then found by a roadside.

There is an intense battle currently in progress to win the $10 billion deal for 126 combat aircraft (MMRCA – medium multi-role combat aircraft) where the final decision is expected to be taken by March. As I have posted earlier, the technical and flight evaluations on the 6 contenders were conducted by the Indian Air Force and their highly confidential and secret report was submitted to the Ministry of Defence  by early November 2010. Many rumours circulated at the time and the word on the street was that the Eurofighter Typhoon had won the technical evaluation. However this evaluation is merely one (but important) stage in the decision making process. The strategic and financial evaluations are under way and political lobbying is building up.  Some of this lobbying is at the highest levels of government and no doubt the recent visits to India by Obama and Medvedev and Sarkozy were utilised fully.

For all the contenders the technical evaluation is what determines what is left to be done to win the contract. The details in the technical evaluation report are most important for a contender to know how to compensate for any perceived failings. I am quite sure that every contender has managed by now to obtain a copy of the technical evaluation report. (To obtain copies of confidential reports from Indian bureaucrats is not in the realm of the impossible. In my experience obtaining reports and confidential documents from clerks in government service is much more effective than any Freedom of Information application and are not subject to any redactions.) I am equally sure that all the six aircraft manufacturers would have by now developed their sales strategies and lobbying plans based on the their weaknesses as recorded in the report. But what may have been missed by some is that unofficial dissemination of the “confidential” report is an expected event. It may even have been a deliberate leakage of the report as part of the Government of India’s buying strategy.

The six are:

  1. Dassault, Rafale, France
  2. Eurofighter, Typhoon, UK, Italy, Germany and Spain
  3. Lockheed Martin, F-16IN Super Viper, US
  4. Boeing, F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, US
  5. Saab, JAS 39 Gripen, Sweden
  6. Mikoyan, MiG-35, Russia

Even though there are only 6 contenders, the number of lobbyists, sub-contractors and foreign embassy officials involved would have led to at least 100 copies of the report having been “sold” by various bureaucrats with access to the file. So I do not find it very surprising that one of the many “unsold” copies was abandoned somewhere. The value of such reports goes down sharply with time. It must have been at its most expensive immediately after it was submitted to government and before the many visits by various heads of state to Delhi. Again from my past experience of such things I would expect that the report probably had an initial “price” of around Rs 10 lakhs (about $20,000) but now some 2 months later, can probably be purchased for less than 1 lakh ($2,000).

Nobody is probably very bothered by this episode since the leakage of the report to the contenders is part of the game and already taken into consideration by the Government. In fact leakage of “perceived weaknesses” to a supplier is one of the best buying strategies to extract improvements in the supplier’s offer. The most senior bureaucrats in the Ministry of Defence are probably congratulating themselves for having managed to disseminate so many copies of the report before this particular slip-up.

But for now all the right noises will be made for public consumption. As the ToI reports:

Ordering an inquiry into the episode, defence minister A K Antony on Monday said he was “very clear that every officer has to be very careful at every stage” while dealing with the huge MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project. “We have viewed the incident seriously…the inquiry is in progress,” he said. It was last week that the “secret” file, which was earlier submitted to the MoD by IAF, went missing and was then found later in the day near Khelgaon Marg in South Delhi.

MoD was tight-lipped about the incident but sources said the file was apparently lost by the bureaucrats, one an additional secretary-rank officer and the other a director, while being taken to the Bharat Electronics Limited guest-house on Khelgaon Marg. The file was found by a security guard who then got in touch with the authorities concerned.

Sing a song of sixpence…….

January 3, 2011

Sing a song of sixpence

A pocket full of rye

Four and twenty blackbirds

Baked in a pie.

http://www.examiner.com/google-trends-in-national/dead-birds-mystery-2-000-blackbirds-fall-on-beebe-arkansas-video

Red winged blackbird: image learner.org

The death of thousands of red-winged blackbirds that fell out of the sky over the small town of Beebe, Arkansas on New Year’s Eve night is a mystery that has the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission sending the dead birds off for testing in hopes of a reasonable explanation. …..

Just how many birds died seems to vary with the Associated Press reporting that the last of the 2,000 dead birds was removed about 11 a.m. Sunday in the Beebe, a town that is approximately 40 miles northeast of Little Rock.

CNN reports that there area over 5,000 birds dead, where ” the bodies of red-winged blackbirds litter a street and field.”

Poison or illness have been ruled out and speculation is that some kind of stress – perhaps due to a hail storm, or a lightning strike or New Year fireworks  – could have caused the death of these birds. Lab results are expected to take upto a week.


No surprise: US diplomats acted as Boeing salesmen

January 3, 2011

It comes as no surprise that diplomats and government officials are heavily involved in lobbying and “advocacy” in favour of major corporations in international trade. This applies for sales of all defence equipment, commercial aircraft, major rail transport projects, nuclear and conventional power plant and -in short – virtually all large projects where jobs at the seller’s establishment are involved.

Virtually every visit of a head of government to another country reserves a great deal of time for commercial lobbying activities. Large companies look to such visits to bring purchasing decisions to a head and the months preceding such visits are periods of intense co-operation between commercial sales people, diplomats, bureaucrats and politicians in both countries. So called “agents” (essentially middle-men with “sticky” fingers) thrive on such activity.  During such periods I have seen how diplomats take directions from sales people at private companies or from the “agents”. The ability to access and trigger such “advocacy” is of huge competitive advantage for the companies involved. It is here that large international companies can bring factors outside the conventional sales criteria into play.

It is not just the US or just Boeing involved in such advocacy. Nearly every country indulges in this. The UK (British Aerospace for example), France (Areva and nuclear power or Alstom and High speed trains) or Germany (Siemens for power plants or trains or VW at car factories) are all engaged in similar advocacy. But the particular case of US diplomats acting as salesmen for Boeing is reported by the New York Times from the Wikileaks release of diplomatic cables and these reveal some of the “perks” and extra factors that are brought into play. Such as

The king of Saudi Arabia wanted the United States to outfit his personal jet with the same high-tech devices as Air Force One. The president of Turkey wanted the Obama administration to let a Turkish astronaut sit in on a NASA space flight. And in Bangladesh, the prime minister pressed the State Department to re-establish landing rights at Kennedy International Airport in New York. Each of these government leaders had one thing in common: they were trying to decide whether to buy billions of dollars’ worth of commercial jets from Boeing or its European competitor, Airbus. And United States diplomats were acting like marketing agents, offering deals to heads of state and airline executives whose decisions could be influenced by price, performance and, as with all finicky customers with plenty to spend, perks.

To get the interest of their own politicians and governments every large corporation knows that the magic key is being able to link the sale being pursued to jobs in the home-country and especially in the constituency of the home-politician. “Job creation” is the magic mantra that no politician can resist or can afford to ignore. The use of dubious agents or the use of “undue” influence or the flow of a few percent of the contract value  through some side-channels or the provision of some “perks” to politicians and bureaucrats through the entire chain from supplier to purchaser become critical and pervasive.

When the potential of job creation is involved, questions of ethics are rarely raised and the system of high level corruption is perpetuated.

NYT report

Unusually thick ice traps ships in the Sea of Okhotsk

January 3, 2011

Itar-Tass reports that the Magadan icebreaker is struggling through 2-meter-thick ice to reach stuck ships in the Sea of Okhotsk and another ice-breaker is on its way. This reports talks of 3 ships being trapped but other reports speak of 10 ships with over 600 crew being trapped.

Line icebreaker ADMIRAL MAKAROV: image fesco.ru

VLADIVOSTOK, January 2 (Itar-Tass) — The Magadan icebreaker of the Far Eastern Shipping Company is struggling its way through the two-meter-thick ice to rescue three ships stuck in the ice in the Sakhalin Bay of the Sea of Okhotsk, a spokesman for the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk sea rescue coordination center said on Sunday.

With a speed of 2.6 knots the icebreaker develops in conditions of the 10 point ice, she has to master five miles to reach the stuck ships, the spokesman said.

The Sodruzhestvo mother ship, the Professor Kizevetter research vessel and the Bereg Nadezhdy refrigerated cargo ship are trapped in the ice eleven to twelve miles off the Khabarovsk coastline. Their attempts to break free have been vain ….. According to the Sakhalin regional emergencies administration, there is no threat to the lives and health of crew members of the three ships. Of the three stuck ships, the Sodruzhestvo has the largest crew of 340 people. The ship has food reserves for 75 days.

The Admiral Makarov, the biggest icebreaker in Russia’s Far East, is also heading to join the rescue operations. She is expected to reach the Sakhalin Bay on January 4.

The BBC also carries a report also quoting Itar-Tass but their facts seem to have morphed along the way. Two metres is converted to 12 inches by the BBC calculator!!!!

map

Sea of Okhotsk: image BBC

 

Rescue efforts are under way to evacuate more than 600 crew on 10 ships trapped in ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. The ice is up to 30cm (12 inches) thick in some places, according to the Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

The temperature in the area is -22C, according to Itar-Tass, and forecasts suggest it will fall even lower.

An Itar-Tass update is here:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15834220&PageNum=0

Now conservationists come out against wind power

January 3, 2011
Whooping Crane

Whooping crane: Image via Wikipedia

Officials with American Bird Conservancy on Wednesday cited data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service that estimates 400,000 birds of various species are killed by turbine blades annually reports the Omaha World Herald.

One of the nation’s largest bird conservation groups says rapid construction of wind energy projects will endanger several avian species……That includes the whooping crane, a famous migratory bird and annual visitor to central Nebraska.

“Golden eagles, whooping cranes and greater sage-grouse are likely to be among the birds most affected by poorly planned and sited wind projects,” said Kelly Fuller, a spokeswoman for the conservancy.

“Unless the government acts now to require that the wind industry respect basic wildlife safeguards, these three species will be at ever greater risk.”

Officials with Nebraska Public Power District and MidAmerican Energy Co. said potential wind farm developments are carefully examined by experts and conservationists to determine their ecological impact.

“We monitor for bird kills but haven’t seen anything of significance,” said Mark Becker, an NPPD spokesman. “But we have not heard of any endangered species or any endangered birds being killed in Nebraska.”


Russian oil pipeline to China in operation

January 2, 2011

Xinhua News:

MOHE, Heilongjiang, Jan. 2 (Xinhua) — Some 42,000 tonnes of crude oil had as of 5:48 a.m. Sunday flowed through an oil pipeline linking Russia’s far east and northeast China, 24 hours after the pipeline began operating, a spokesman for the Chinese operator of the pipeline said.

Pipelines and oil storage tanks of China and Russia crude oil pipeline in Mohe, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, Jan. 1, 2011: (Xinhua/Wang Jianwei)

The pipeline, which originates in the Russian town of Skovorodino in the far-eastern Amur region, enters China at Mohe and terminates at northeast China’s Daqing City. A total of 1.32 million tonnes of oil is scheduled to be transported to China through the pipeline in January, said a spokesman for Pipeline Branch of Petro China Co., Ltd. (PBPC), the operator of the Chinese section of the pipeline.

The 1,000-km-long pipeline will transport 15 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia to China per year from 2011 until 2030, according to an agreement signed between the two countries. Some 72 kilometers of the pipeline is in Russia while 927 km of it is in China.


Hausergate: In scientific misconduct “confirmation bias” or “fudging data” are equally corrupt

January 2, 2011

The Scientific American carries an article about the Marc Hauser case at Harvard. (Marc Hauser was found to have committed 8 cases of scientific misconduct).

Scientific American

Scott O. Lilienfeld argues that Hauser may only be guilty of “confirmation bias” and that it is premature to ascribe deliberate wrongdoing to him:

Hauser has admitted to committing “significant mistakes.” In observing the reactions of my colleagues to Hauser’s shocking comeuppance, I have been surprised at how many assume reflexively that his misbehavior must have been deliberate. For example, University of Maryland physicist Robert L. Park wrote in a Web column that Hauser “fudged his experiments.” I don’t think we can be so sure. It’s entirely possible that Hauser was swayed by “confirmation bias”—the tendency to look for and perceive evidence consistent with our hypotheses and to deny, dismiss or distort evidence that is not.

The past few decades of research in cognitive, social and clinical psychology suggest that confirmation bias may be far more common than most of us realize. Even the best and the brightest scientists can be swayed by it, especially when they are deeply invested in their own hypotheses and the data are ambiguous. A baseball manager doesn’t argue with the umpire when the call is clear-cut—only when it is close.

Scholars in the behavioral sciences, including psychology and animal behavior, may be especially prone to bias. They often make close calls about data that are open to many interpretations…….

………. Two factors make combating confirmation bias an uphill battle. For one, data show that eminent scientists tend to be more arrogant and confident than other scientists. As a consequence, they may be especially vulnerable to confirmation bias and to wrong-headed conclusions, unless they are perpetually vigilant. Second, the mounting pressure on scholars to conduct single-hypothesis-driven research programs supported by huge federal grants is a recipe for trouble. Many scientists are highly motivated to disregard or selectively reinterpret negative results that could doom their careers.

But I am not persuaded. When “eminent” scientists use their position and power to indulge in “confirmation bias” it is merely a euphemism for what is still cheating by taking undue advantage of their position. It is “corruption” in its most basic form. I reject the notion that such “confirmation bias” is a form of  “unwitting behaviour”. It may well be behaviour which resides in the sub-conscious but that is not “unwitting” behaviour. Neither is it excusable just because it may be in the sub-conscious. It gets into the sub-conscious only because the conscious allows it to do so. When any behaviour residing in the sub-conscious conflicts with the values and morality of an individual it is inevitably ejected into the conscious.  Being sub-consciously immoral but consciously moral is not feasible.

In the case of Marc Hauser, even assuming that his faults were due to “confirmation bias” then either it was behaviour which remained entirely in the sub-conscious in which case his values and morality are suspect, or it was triggered into the conscious and he continued anyway in which case it was simple cheating.

UK degrees downgraded

January 2, 2011
The west end of King's College Chapel seen fro...

Kings College chapel, Cambridge: Image via Wikipedia

It used to be that being awarded a First Class Honours or an Upper Second (2:1) degree in the UK carried some weight since they  were “awarded sparingly to students who showed exceptional depth of knowledge and originality”. But this no longer holds. The race for students and the use of league tables to “grade” universities has led to standards being deliberately diluted to improve the statistics. But the result is that in many universities where in 1970 less than 20% of students could expect a First or an Upper Second in 1970, today over 60% can expect such an award.

But I expect it will have a backlash. A key statistic emerging to define a “good” university will soon be the difficulty to be awarded a First and not the number of Firsts awarded. Just as in the US where one statistic defining the “goodness” of a University is now the difficulty to gain entrance. In Japan the difficulty to get into Tokyo University is what maintains its pre-eminence (though it is also alleged that once you get into Tokyo University you don’t need to do any more since your degree and your career are assured!).

The Telegraph carries the story of the “dumbing down” of UK degrees.

The results for last summer’s graduates, due to be published by the Higher Education Statistics Agency later this month, will increase pressure for reform of the degree grading system in Britain, which an official inquiry has already condemned as “not fit for purpose”.

The latest data shows that the criteria for awarding degrees has changed dramatically – despite complaints from many universities that grade inflation at A-level has made it hard for them to select candidates. Traditionally, first class honours have been awarded sparingly to students who show exceptional depth of knowledge and originality. But the new figures add further weight to a report by MPs last year which found that “inconsistency in standards is rife” and accused vice-chancellors of “defensive complacency”.

Prof Alan Smithers, director of Buckingham University’s centre for education and employment research, and a long-standing critic of falling standards, said: “There has been the most extraordinary grade inflation. As the system has expanded and a wider ability range has taken degree courses, the universities have altered their standards. Institutions are under pressure to improve their place in league tables and also need good results to compete for research grants. Giving university status to the polytechnics, some of which are very good, freed them to award their own degrees and they have exercised that freedom to award high degrees to relatively poorly-qualified entrants.”

Source article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8235115/Dumbing-down-of-university-grades-revealed.html

Time Magazine and its unwavering view of climate change

January 1, 2011

From Watts Up with that: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/01/time-magazine-and-global-warming/#more-30704

Unwavering !