Collateral advantages of Brexit for EU states

September 8, 2016

The Times reports (paywalled):

Former communist states are planning to exploit the fallout of Brexit with a “counter-revolution” designed to block migrant deals and assert the power of national governments over Brussels.

Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, an influential diplomatic European Union bloc known as the Visegrad Group, will lobby together at a summit next week to ensure that national governments are put back in the EU’s driving seat.

The summit will gather all EU leaders, excluding Theresa May, in Slovakia’s capital to forge a new vision of Europe. It is expected to expose the rift between newer member states ………

No doubt the UK will – in about 3 years – conclude a reasonable trade agreement with the EU and implement Brexit. No doubt also that EU citizens who have work to go to in the UK, will still be able to do so quite freely. But “benefit” tourism will become extremely difficult. The long term benefits for the UK will no doubt unfurl. I expect to see a revival of some old Commonwealth ties. New trade and labour movement agreements will be put in place. The UK could even gain a competitive edge over the remaining EU.

In the EU the dream for some of a Holy European Empire will receive a debilitating setback – thank goodness. But there will even be real benefit for all of the remaining members. For EU member states, the silver lining in the Brexit cloud will accrue only if the power of the EC and Brussels is sharply curtailed. If the EU Parliament (which – by any measure – is the most useless and wasteful institution in the world) happens to get abolished along the way, so much the better.

But one shouldn’t hope for too much.


 

The Patriarch

September 8, 2016

Circa 1915

 

ancestors1-1

Ancestors

The Patriarch (probably born between 1860-1870), with

  • his two sons seated to his right,
  • their wives standing behind them
  • his two daughters standing behind him and
  • his four grandchildren

ancestors1-11


 

The consumption of time

September 7, 2016

No change without the passage of time.

No passage of time without change.

That is almost trivial. It does not help to tell us what or why time is.

Or perhaps it does.

Perhaps time is a consumable. It is the fuel that is needed for and is consumed by change. Quantum of change per unit of time taken as miles traversed per gallon of fuel. It follows that we can stop the passage of time if we can stop change – down to the motion of the elementary particles. Time does not just pass – perhaps it has to be consumed.

Perhaps the single great mystery is gravitation. Then gravitation (or gravitational energy) is manifested as the passage of time. The speed of the passage of time then varies with the gravitational field. One real second per perceived second now, but perhaps zero at the Big Bang.

The magical speed of an inconstant time

speed of time

No time without gravity.

And no change without time being consumed.

So, no change without gravity and time is just the medium of change.


 

Statistician’s challenge for proof of global warming still stands

September 6, 2016

I have posted earlier in November 2015 about Doug Keenan’s challenge.

Nobody has taken up the challenge as yet.

Instead the hierarchy have merely tried to ignore his challenge, or to challenge the challenge itself.

Dough Keenan now has an addendum to his challenge:

18 August 2016
A paper by Lovejoy et al. was published in Geophysical Research Letters. The paper is about the Contest.

The paper is based on the assertion that “Keenan claims to have used a stochastic model with some realism”; the paper then argues that the Contest model has inadequate realism. The paper provides no evidence that I have claimed that the Contest model has adequate realism; indeed, I do not make such a claim. Moreover, my critique of the IPCC statistical analyses (discussed above) argues that no one can choose a model with adequate realism. Thus, the basis for the paper is invalid. The lead author of the paper, Shaun Lovejoy, was aware of that, but published the paper anyway.

When doing statistical analysis, the first step is to choose a model of the process that generated the data. The IPCC did indeed choose a model. I have only claimed that the model used in the Contest is more realistic than the model chosen by the IPCC. Thus, if the Contest model is unrealistic (as it is), then the IPCC model is even more unrealistic. Hence, the IPCC model should not be used. Ergo, the statistical analyses in the IPCC Assessment Report are untenable, as the critique argues.

For an illustration, consider the following. Lovejoy et al. assert that the Contest model implies a typical temperature change of 4 °C every 6400 years—which is too large to be realistic. Yet the IPCC model implies a temperature change of about 41 °C every 6400 years. (To confirm this, see Section 8 of the critique and note that 0.85×6400/133 = 41.) Thus, the IPCC model is far more unrealistic than the Contest model, according to the test advocated by Lovejoy et al. Hence, if the test advocated by Lovejoy et al. were adopted, then the IPCC statistical analyses are untenable.


Solar Cycle 24 approaches minimum (the Landscheidt Minimum?)

September 4, 2016

Vencore: The current solar cycle, #24, is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century and it is now heading towards the next solar minimum phase which would be the beginning of solar cycle #25.  The last solar minimum phase lasted from 2007 to 2009 and it was historically weak. …… The current solar cycle is the 24th solar cycle since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.  Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 22 that peaked around 1990.

In January this year, sunspot activity was declining sharply with the minimum expected around 2019/2010 (last minimum was in 2008/2009). SC24 maximum was reached in 2014 (the second of two peaks with the first in 2012).

SC24 january 2016 (Hathaway-NASA)

SC24 january 2016 (Hathaway-NASA)

Whether we shall see the coming minimum  (the Landscheidt Minimum) to be like the Dalton Minimum or a Grand Minimum like the Maunder Minimum remains to be seen. It should be clear by the time of the SC25 maximum around 2024/2025 and the next minimum in 2030.

It really is time to acknowledge the Landscheidt Minimum:

Landscheidt also predicted that after the next solar minimum in 2030 the following minimum would occur in 2200.

It is perhaps time to officially name this minimum that is coming as the “Landscheidt Minimum”.

The latest SC 24 plot of sunspot number has been posted by NASA/Hathaway:

SC24 august 2016 (Hathaway-NASA)

SC24 august 2016 (Hathaway-NASA)

We are in for 3 decades of cooling.


 

In Syria, the Obama non-strategy: US supported groups fight US supported groups

September 3, 2016

Eric Margolis has this post in The Unz Review and it only confirms for me that Obama’s lasting legacy will be of his “paralysis by analysis”. Obama’s actions are dominated by his fears. He has good intentions and then gets bogged down as soon as the risk analysis gets under way. His Iraq/ Syria/ Turkey/ Iran strategy – if it can be credited with the label of a “strategy” – has been one of avoiding risks as they appear. His actions are all short-term reactions to the appearance of new, perceived risks. His “red lines in the sand” have proven to be shifting lines. Obama’s misguided actions and his inactions allowed the ISIS expansion to flourish. The containing of ISIS expansion has only been made possible by the Russian intervention and the propping-up of Assad.

Obama’s predecessor, Bush Jr., distinguished himself by not thinking anything through. He rushed to conclusions and to actions without too much thought or analysis. In my definitions of behaviour he comes across, not necessarily as without courage, but as foolhardy. Obama, on the other hand, will be remembered, no doubt, for being intelligent and analytical but without courage.

As Margolis points out, the actions from diverse groups within the US have been chaotic and often opposed to one another.

U.S. vs. U.S. in Syria

 

pentagon-cia

What a mess! In the crazy Syrian war, US-backed and armed groups are fighting other US-backed rebel groups. How can this be?

It is so because the Obama White House had stirred up the war in Syria but then lost control of the process. When the US has a strong president, he can usually keep the military and intelligence agencies on a tight leash.

But the Obama administration has had a weak secretary of defense and a bunch of lady strategists who are the worst military commanders since Louis XV, who put his mistress, Madame de Pompadour, in charge of French military forces during the Seven Year’s War. The French were routed by the Prussians. France’s foe, Frederick the Great of Prussia, named one of his dogs, “la Pompadour.”

As a result, the two arms of offensive US strategic power, the Pentagon, and CIA, went separate ways in Syria. Growing competition between the US military and militarized CIA broke into the open in Syria.

Fed up with the astounding incompetence of the White House, the US military launched and supported its own rebel groups in Syria, while CIA did the same.

Fighting soon after erupted in Syria and Iraq between the US-backed groups. US Special Forces joined the fighting in Syria, Iraq and most lately, Libya.

The well-publicized atrocities, like mass murders and decapitations, greatly embarrassed Washington, making it harder to portray their jihadi wildmen as liberators. The only thing exceptional about US policy in Syria was its astounding incompetence.

Few can keep track of the 1,000 groups of jihadis that keep changing their names and shifting alliances. Throw in Turkomans, Yazidis, Armenians, Nestorians, Druze, Circassians, Alawis, Assyrians and Palestinians. Oh yes, and the Alevis.

Meanwhile, ISIS was inflicting mayhem in Syria and Iraq. But who really is ISIS? A few thousand twenty-something hooligans with little knowledge of Islam but a burning desire to dynamite the existing order and a sharp media sense. The leadership of these turbaned anarchists appears to have formed in US prison camps in Afghanistan.

The US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey armed and financed ISIS as a weapon to unleash on Syria, which was an ally of Iran that refused to take orders from the Western powers. The west bears a heavy responsibility for the deaths of 450,000 Syrians, at least half the nation of 23 million becoming refugees, and destruction of this once lovely country.

At some point, ISIS shook off its western tutors and literally ran amok. But the US has not yet made a concerted attempt to crush ISIS because of its continuing usefulness in Syria and in the US, where ISIS has become the favorite whipping boy of politicians.

Next, come the Kurds, an ancient Indo-European stateless people spread across Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. They have been denied a national state by the western powers since WWI. Kurdish rebels in Iraq have been armed and financed by Israel since the 1970’s.

When America’s Arab jihadists proved militarily feeble, the US turned to the Kurds, who are renowned fighters, arming and financing the Kurdish Syrian YPG which is part of the well-known PKK rebel group that fights Turkey.

I covered the Turkish-Kurdish conflict in eastern Anatolia in the 1980’s in which some 40,000 died.

Turkey is now again battling a rising wave of Kurdish attacks that caused the Turks to probe into northern Syria to prevent a link-up of advancing Kurdish rebel forces.

So, Turkey, a key American ally, is now battling CIA-backed Kurdish groups in Syria. Eighty percent of Turks believe the recent failed coup in Turkey was mounted by the US – not the White House, but by the Pentagon which has always been joined at the hip to Turkey’s military.

This major Turkish-Kurdish crisis was perfectly predictable, but the obtuse junior warriors of the Obama administration failed to grasp this point.

Now the Russians have entered the fray in an effort to prevent their ally, Bashar Assad, from being overthrow by western powers. Also perfectly predictable. Russia claimed to be bombing ISIS but in fact, is targeting US-backed groups. Washington is outraged that the wicked Russians are doing in the Mideast what the US has done for decades.

The US and Russia now both claim to have killed a senior ISIS commander in an air strike. Their warplanes are dodging one another, creating a perfect scenario for a head-on clash at a time when neocons in the US are agitating for war with Russia.

Does anyone think poor, demolished Syria is worth the price? Hatred for the US is now seething in Turkey and across the Mideast. Hundreds of millions of US tax dollars have been wasted in this cruel, pointless war.

Time for the US to stop stirring this witch’s brew.

The Age of Man is the age of fire

September 1, 2016

There is much discussion about when to define the start of the Anthropocene  epoch “that begins when human activities started to have a significant global impact on Earth’s geology and ecosystem” . Scientists are looking for the parameters which could define the start of this geological age in the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth. There are suggestions that it should be 1945 when the first nuclear test was carried out or 1950 when radioactive particles began to be detected in the atmosphere. Others have argued for 1610 when “an unusual drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the irreversible exchange of species between the New and Old Worlds” began. Others still argue for 1964.

Homo timeline (Wikipedia)

Homo timeline (Wikipedia)

But I find these arguments unconvincing. There is, in fact, a single development (whether it was a single event or a development, discovered and rediscovered, perhaps at many places and over a long period). That single development was the control of fire. I wrote a year or so ago “The Age of Man began when Homo Erectus learned to produce fire at will and to contain fire in a hearth.”

The one single capability which initiated the divergence of humans from all other animals and which has resulted in the inevitable development and domination of modern humans is the control of fire. And that was around 400,000 years ago. The Age of Man began when Homo Erectus learned to produce fire at will and to contain fire in a hearth. I would even speculate that without fire Homo Erectus would not have survived to evolve into Homo Sapiens. Without fire Homo Sapiens would not have thrived through the ice ages or left the tropics to colonise more northern climes.

When our ancestors came down from the trees and developed bipedalism, they did not have control of fire. There were just another primate species – one among many. The earliest stone tools were developed without fire possibly by homo habilis. It may well be that this tool making ability was a key survival attribute which allowed this species to become skillful hunters and shift to a diet containing much raw meat. The brains of homo habilis grew in size and the species continued evolving to become homo erectus and other bipedal primates died out. And then around 1.8 – 1.5 million years ago, homo erectus gained some control over fire. It is possible that it was the skill in stone cutting which itself led to the discovery that flint and iron pyrites struck together could create a spark. It may have been an ancient stone tool maker who, accidentally, first discovered a method of creating a spark and igniting a fire. While the earliest known hearths are only from around 400,000 years ago, hearths are relatively sophisticated technology. Primitive ignition techniques and a rudimentary control of fire must have been available earlier and was probably available to the common ancestors of both Neanderthals and AMH (anatomically modern humans). The size of the evolving homo erectus brain grew sharply as cooked meat dominated the diet and the biological energy resources available to an individual of the species took off. The – albeit primitive – control of light and heat from an external source would have been revolutionary. Though fire was not necessary for stone tools, the ability to make and hone stone tools, and fire-hardened wooden weapons, after the hunting day was done would have been a giant leap in the technological stakes.

There is a clear link between diet and energy availability and brain size evolution.

Smithsonian: Wherever humans have gone in the world, they have carried with them two things, language and fire. ….. Darwin himself considered these the two most significant achievements of humanity.

Harvard biologist Richard Wrangham, … believes that fire is needed to fuel the organ that makes possible all the other products of culture, language included: the human brain. Every animal on earth is constrained by its energy budget; the calories obtained from food will stretch only so far. And for most human beings, most of the time, these calories are burned …… in powering the heart, the digestive system and especially the brain, in the silent work of moving molecules around within and among its 100 billion cells. A human body at rest devotes roughly one-fifth of its energy to the brain, regardless of whether it is thinking anything useful, or even thinking at all. Thus, the unprecedented increase in brain size that hominids embarked on around 1.8 million years ago had to be paid for with added calories either taken in or diverted from some other function in the body. Many anthropologists think the key breakthrough was adding meat to the diet. But Wrangham and his Harvard colleague Rachel Carmody think that’s only a part of what was going on in evolution at the time. What matters, they say, is not just how many calories you can put into your mouth, but what happens to the food once it gets there. How much useful energy does it provide, after subtracting the calories spent in chewing, swallowing and digesting? The real breakthrough, they argue, was cooking.

……. Carmody explains that only a fraction of the calories in raw starch and protein are absorbed by the body directly via the small intestine. The remainder passes into the large bowel, where it is broken down by that organ’s ravenous population of microbes, which consume the lion’s share for themselves. Cooked food, by contrast, is mostly digested by the time it enters the colon; for the same amount of calories ingested, the body gets roughly 30 percent more energy from cooked oat, wheat or potato starch as compared to raw, and as much as 78 percent from the protein in an egg. …..

…..Fire detoxifies some foods that are poisonous when eaten raw, and it kills parasites and bacteria. Again, this comes down to the energy budget. Animals eat raw food without getting sick because their digestive and immune systems have evolved the appropriate defenses. Presumably the ancestors of Homo erectus—say, Australopithecus—did as well. But anything the body does, even on a molecular level, takes energy; by getting the same results from burning wood, human beings can put those calories to better use in their brains. Fire, by keeping people warm at night, made fur unnecessary, and without fur hominids could run farther and faster after prey without overheating. Fire brought hominids out of the trees; by frightening away nocturnal predators, it enabled Homo erectus to sleep safely on the ground, which was part of the process by which bipedalism (and perhaps mind-expanding dreaming) evolved. By bringing people together at one place and time to eat, fire laid the groundwork for pair bonding and, indeed, for human society.

I can see that once fire had been controlled and cooking developed, the sudden (relatively) advance of that species was inevitable. Both for evolution and for technology development. Within the individual it provided the elements necessary for the brain to grow. That in turn led – also inevitably – to speech (c. 200 kya) and language (c. 100 kya) and writing (c. 50 kya). Stone tools were sufficient – without fire – to lead to meat eating. But it was fire which gave cooking, which allowed an energy-rich diet containing cooked vegetable and animal proteins. But fire did not just give cooking. It provided the starting point for virtually all technology as we know it today. Fire provided safety. Hearths gave a focus for a cooperative society to develop. Hearths led to ovens and kilns and eventually to smelters. Light in the dark and heat in the bitter northern winters, probably gave rise to the first ever “leisure times”. The Stone Age, with fire, gave way to the Bronze Age. As the ability to control and contain even higher temperatures were developed, the Iron Age was born. Gods and alchemists and priests and shamans needed fire. The Sun in its avatar of fire paved the way for the first religions (though this may not be considered much of an advance). Temperature was recognised as being a critical parameter because of the control of fire. Blacksmiths and alchemists gave rise to Metallurgy and Chemistry and Physics. Sand and fire gave glass and Astronomy. The Steel Age and the Plastics Age and now the Semiconductor Age were all inevitable once fire had been controlled and harnessed. The species not only survived Ice Ages, it thrived through them. Our ancestors only expanded into the more northern climes because of the availability of fire. In due course, fire gave rise to electricity and then the dark, or the cold, or the heat, could all be banished at will.

The Age of Man has been, and is, the age of fire.

First came hominids and then came fire and the rest is history.

Homo sapiens is now with gravitation where ancient  homo erectus was with fire. As the magic of fire was understood and brought under control and harnessed, so the magic of gravitation, too, will be understood and controlled and harnessed to the service of homo superieur.


Related:

The Anthropocene began 400,000 years ago when fire was “controlled”


 

ANA to replace all 100 Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines on its Dreamliners

September 1, 2016

An in-flight, uncontained, engine failure not only trashes that particular engine, but can also send shrapnel into potentially vulnerable areas of the aircraft (wing fuel tanks for example). The aircraft may still be able to fly without that engine but the effects of shrapnel are potentially lethal.

Rolls Royce had its share of teething problems with its Trent 900 engine for the Airbus A380 (Trent 900 failures) and had to spend at least $300 million to replace faulty engines. There are only two engines from two manufacturers available for the A380 (Trent 900 from Rolls Royce and the GP7200 from the Engine Alliance – a 50/50 JV between GE and Pratt & Whitney), and competition is limited. Whereas the A380 has 4 turbofan engines, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner has only two. Again competition is limited between Rolls Royce’s Trent 1000 and GE’s GenX.

But the Trent 1000 is having erosion/corrosion problems which are causing blades to crack. Blade failure is particularly nasty since the entire engine downstream of the failure can be easily wiped out. Worse, a broken blade or its fragments travel at high speed and can be ejected through the engine casing creating the “uncontained failure”. Vibration induced failures usually show up relatively quickly but corrosion/erosion induced failures can take a few thousand hours of operation to show up. In any event, the Japanese airline ANA has five affected engines but is replacing all 100 engines on its 50 aircraft.

The Guardian:The Japanese airline ANA has said it will replace all 100 Rolls-Royce engines on its fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliners after three engine failures in 2016 caused by corrosion and cracking of turbine blades.

The world’s largest 787 operator said all 50 of its 787s would receive engines fitted with new blades, a process that could take up to three years.

ANA had five engines that currently needed repairs “but we will replace all the 100 engines for enhanced safety measures”, the company said, adding that it had already repaired three engines.

Is President of Mexico scenting a Trump victory?

August 31, 2016

If the mainstream media are to be believed Donald Trump is already dead and buried. They have gone to unprecedented lengths to vilify and castigate him – and I suspect have gone so far in their vendetta as to now damage their own credibility.

Why then has the President of Mexico invited Trump for private talks?

Trump Mexico

They are going to be meeting today.

Washington PostDonald Trump is considering jetting to Mexico City on Wednesday for a meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, just hours before he delivers a high-stakes speech in Arizona to clarify his views on immigration policy, according to people in the United States and Mexico familiar with the discussions.

It could be that President Peña Nieto is just playing safe and making sure that channels to a President Trump – however unlikely – are not completely closed. But, I don’t buy that. If Trump’s case is as hopeless as the media claim it to be, Nieto does not need all the negative publicity and certainly not from Hispanics within the US.

Or could it be that the media does not represent the reality among the US electorate and President Nieto is anticipating something that the US media are in denial about?


 

In Chicago, 10 killed, 57 wounded over the weekend

August 30, 2016

This from NBC:

Ten people were killed and at least 57 others were wounded in shootings across Chicago between Friday afternoon and Monday morning, police said. 

  • Nykea Aldridge, a cousin of Chicago Bulls star Dwyane Wade, was shot to death Friday afternoon as she pushed one of her children in a stroller in the Parkway Gardens neighborhood on the South Side. 
  • Officers responding to a call of a person shot in the 100 block of West 112th Place found a 35-year-old woman with a gunshot wound to the head, authorities said. She was pronounced dead at the scene. The medical examiner’s office did not immediately provide additional information. Police said the shooting is domestic-related and a 43-year-old man has been taken into custody. Charges were pending Monday morning. 
  • About 4:20 p.m. Sunday, 20-year-old Terrence Murphy was shot to death near his home in the Austin neighborhood on the West Side.
  • Earlier Sunday in the South Loop, a 45-year-old man was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head in an alley.
  • About 12:35 a.m. Sunday in the East Garfield Park neighborhood on the West Side, five males walked up to a 38-year-old man after he parked his vehicle in the 3600 block of West 5th Avenue, and one of them shot him in the head.
  • Shortly after midnight, officers on patrol near the 4400 block of West Monroe in the West Garfield Park neighborhood heard gunfire and found 30-year-old Demarco Richards on the ground with a gunshot wound to the head.
  • ………..
  • ……….

The dead and the wounded and the perpetrators have been predominantly black.

So far this year, the Chicago Tribune reports, there have been 464 homicides in Chicago (490 in 2015) and 2,818 shooting victims (2988 in 2015).

Black lives don’t matter – to other blacks