Monsoon has reached Kerala coast (probably)

May 29, 2016

It is almost certain that the onset of the 2016 monsoon can be declared today (29th May). Based on rainfall alone, the criteria for “onset” are fulfilled. However the formal Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK) is still a subjective call. Attempts are ongoing to establish objective criteria.

The date of the MOK is declared by IMD every year based on subjective estimates prepared by operational forecasters. …….

 ‘‘Although the onset of monsoon is associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation features in the lower and upper troposphere, a sustained increase in the rainfall at the observatory stations of Kerala and the island stations over the south-east Arabian sea is an essential feature of the monsoon onset. It is difficult to quantify these precisely and so the experience of the forecaster plays a key role in declaring the date of monsoon onset in individual years.’’

The IMD forecaster, while declaring the date of the MOK, has been taking into consideration subjectively the following features

  1. the rainfall should be widespread over Kerala and adjacent areas, with large rainfall amounts at individual stations;
  2. this rainfall persists over several days;
  3. the lower-tropospheric westerlies in and around Kerala should be strong and deep; and
  4. the air should be rich in moisture (high relative humidity) up to at least 500 hPa. However, there is no widely accepted objective definition of the MOK.

There also have been attempts to derive objective methods for the MOK. …..

Skymet describes the criteria as:

at least 60% of the 14 weather stations across Kerala and coastal Karnataka should record 2.5 mm rainfall or more for two consecutive days.  ….. Simultaneously, the depth of the westerly winds should be up to 600 hPa (or 12000 ft high),  from the equator to 10°N Latitude, and between Longitude 55°E and 80°E. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-80°E should be around 25 to 35 kmph in the lower levels. The OLR value should also be less than 200 Wm-2 in the box confined by Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-75°E.

The rainfall criteria have been met today. Skymet writes:

…… we watch out for more than 2.5 mm of rainfall for consecutive two days in at least 60% of the stipulated 14 weather stations across Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep. These stations are Minicoy, Aminidivi, Kollam, Thiruvananthapuram, Kannur, Punalur, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kasargode and Mangalore. 

As of now, more than 60% of the available 14 stations have already received more than 2.5 mm of rain for the last 2 days. As for the masses, Monsoon-like rainfall activity has already commenced in the region. The following rainfall figures (in millimeters) recorded over the last 3 days suffice for the above statement. 

Monsoon onset 2016 rainfall (graphic Skymet)

Monsoon onset 2016 rainfall (graphic Skymet)

So far, so good.

It seems highly probable that the formal declaration of the onset of the monsoon over Kerala (MOK) will be declared for today or tomorrow. The signs are encouraging that 2016 monsoon rainfall will be classified as “good” (upto 10% above the long-term average) and may even be declared to be in “excess” (>10% above long term average).

 

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Guardian writer fabricated his stories

May 28, 2016

The Guardian is blatantly biased – but that’s perfectly OK. They tend to be quite selective in choosing which stories to report and which to ignore and that, too, is perfectly OK, since they make no secret of the agendas they pursue. Their opinion pieces nearly always cherry pick information to suit their point of view and I have no problem with that. Their spelling mistakes are legendary (perhaps they need to have an Indian-American with the spelling bee gene as a spell checker). But they do not make up the “facts” they do report.

Except, it seems, they sometimes do.

The Guardian has retracted 13 articles by a freelance writer Joseph Mayton who has been writing for them since 2009. They have also deleted extracts from his other articles which could not be verified. Mayton denies he has fabricated his stories – but his protests which claim unprofessionalism as a defence – are not very convincing.

Guardian Retractions

Guardian editor Lee Glendinning writes:

…. we acted immediately to investigate when sources claimed that they had not spoken with the writer of the piece they were quoted in.

The article in question, from February, was by a freelance journalist, Joseph Mayton, who began writing opinion pieces for the Guardian in London in 2009, while based in Egypt. He contributed several opinion pieces before starting to write occasional US news stories, on a freelance basis, in May 2015 from California. These stories ranged from coverage of wildfires to issues related to marijuana farms, urban vineyards and whale deaths on the coast.

When Mayton was unable to provide convincing evidence that the interviews in question in the February article had taken place, we hired an independent fact-checker to investigate all of his prior work, which comprised 37 single-byline articles published between 2015 and 2016, seven shared byline stories from the same period, and 20 opinion pieces written from 2009 to 2015.

In an investigation that included approximately 50 interviews, our fact-checker found articles that contained likely or confirmed fabrication, including stories about two events that organizers said he didn’t attend. Dozens of sources could not be found – either they had no online presence or they were anonymous and could not be substantiated – and several people quoted in Mayton’s articles either denied speaking with him or giving the quotes attributed to them. …..

….. In light of the extent of the fabrication and the uncertainty surrounding many of the articles, we are removing 12 of the news stories, and one opinion piece from the Guardian website. In the articles that remain, quotes and information that could not be verified have been removed, and we have published footnotes on each article page to outline this. There were other stories which proved accurate, with no corrections needed, and have been left as is.

I use The Guardian as one of my key benchmarks for liberal-left opinions. I don’t expect objectivity from them and I hardly ever agree with their viewpoint but I do rely on their veracity.

And so I am very glad to see them take this action to protect, at least, their reputation for accuracy in the facts they do report.

h/t – Retraction Watch

 

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An Indian spelling gene which is triggered by geography?

May 27, 2016

Indian Americans now totally dominate the US Spelling Bee competition. It was the third straight year of joint winners at the 2016 Scripps National Spelling Bee. Nihar Janga, 11, of Austin, Texas, and Jairam Hathwar, 13, of Corning, New York, were declared co-champions at the National Spelling Bee on Thursday.

May 26, 2016; National Harbor, MD, USA; Jairam Hathwar, 13, of Painted Post, N.Y. (L), and Nihar Janga, 11, of Austin, Texas (R), celebrate as co-champions during the 2016 Scripps National Spelling Bee at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center. Image : Reuters

Seventeen out of the last twenty one winners (from 1999 to 2016), including all champions for the most recent nine years (from 2008-2016, including 2014, 2015, and 2016’s pairs of co-champions, for a total of twelve champions during this interval), have been Indian Americans, reflecting the recent dominance of students of this community in this competition. Indian Americans make up less than one percent of the U.S. population. In 2016, Nihar Janga from Austin, Texas, became the youngest ever champion when he won the title at the age of 11.

The 2016 Scripps National Spelling Bee featured co-champions for the sixth time in the competition’s history, the previous occurrences having been in 1950, 1957, 1962, 2014, and 2015. (Wikipedia)

It must be genetic. But for some reason the spelling gene does not express itself in India. Obviously some epigenetic factor is in play.

My hypothesis is that all Indians have the spelling gene but it is only expressed when triggered by a geographical factor to be found only in the US.

Related:

Why are Indian-Americans sweeping the US spelling bee?

 

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Brexit has lost – but so has Cameron

May 25, 2016

The UK will most likely vote to remain in the EU, much to the EU’s relief. The fear of being an outsider in Europe will likely be stronger than the fear of surrendering sovereignty and law-making powers to Brussels. This referendum will not be the catalyst for change that the flawed EU concept desperately needs. Instead of using the referendum as a weapon, Cameron has not had the courage to confront the ideologues and has missed his opportunity to be the Great Reformer. He has used the referendum weapon more for domestic purposes than for pressuring the EU.

But the cracks in the flawed Franco-German vision of the Holy European Empire will remain. In fact, the cracks will only get wider. While the centre (Brussels) tries to expand by bringing in new countries, the countries at the eastern border will take their own line. The strains on the Euro will grow greater as Brussels expansionism brings in countries with weaker economies. The Euro zone, far from being a homogeneous region of uniform economic strength, will be in constant crises and bailouts. The conflict between the free movement of wealth creators (labour) and the free movement of wealth consumers (welfare tourists) will remain as long as the huge variation in economic conditions across Europe remain.

There will be a tug-of war between the expansionists and the likes of Poland and Hungary and Austria when it comes to accepting Muslim countries (Bosnia and Turkey primarily). Kosovo is also such a country but is not yet fully recognised as a country.

Cameron has missed his chance to roll back some of the excesses in Europe. The European Parliament has become the most useless and least democratic parliament in the world. And the European Commission, rather than being a disseminator of best practices, has become a body where the lowest common standard applies.

Of course, the UK needs to stay in the EU – for both the good of the UK and of the EU. But the EU needs to be drastically thinned down and vigorously cleaned up. Common sense has to return and replace the orthodoxy of the Holy European Empire.

EU colonial expansion

EU colonial expansion

 

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Trump leads — is it a perversion of democracy?

May 24, 2016

Donald Trump leads – just – in the polls and there is some panic. The RCP poll of polls shows Trump leading Clinton for the first time by just 0.2 percentage points (43.4 to 43.2).

Trump leads 22nd May 2016

Trump leads 22nd May 2016

But this support for Trump is not reflected in the US media. Overwhelmingly – and I would guess over 90% – of the main stream media are contemptuous of Trump. The liberal media is filled with anti-Trump vitriol. (These attacks are counter productive and I have written elsewhere of how Trump and the anti-establishment wave he is riding feed on these attacks). The consensus even among my friends – who do reflect the media – is that a Trump victory would be a catastrophe for the US and the world. Trump supporters are considered fools or worse. They are supposed to be the racists and the rednecks and all the stupid and “angry” people.

The US media attacks on Trump show a hint of panic (especially the liberal-left media). They are still missing the point that attacking Trump increases his support. It is only by adopting an anti-establishment stance that some of this support could be siphoned away.

Suppose Trump does win the election. Will the media and the establishment accept the “verdict of the people”? Will they still be extolling the virtues of democracy and universal suffrage where the stupid have as much of a vote as the intelligent? I suspect that Trump will not be as bad a President as people fear. But if he wins, it will be because of the inherently, perverse nature of democracy.

The basic problem is that “universal suffrage” with an “equal vote” for everyone is fundamentally unjust.

……. it is mere existence as an individual that suffices to have an “equal vote”. And if everyone has the vote it is assumed that “democracy” has been attained – as if it were some sort of state of grace.  The only real criterion is that of age, even if some countries still have some other criteria in force. The merit of the individual is irrelevant. Votes can and are bought by promises or by free meals or by money or by a bus-ride. A “bought” or coerced vote weighs as heavy as one that is freely given. (There is nothing wrong in buying or selling votes – the flaw lies in that the seller has a vote equal to that of free elector). A fool has the same vote as a wise man. A large tax contributor is equated to a small tax contributor. Government servants paid for by taxes have the same weight of vote as the tax payers. Priests and politicians have the vote. The behaviour of an individual does not affect his vote. Experience, intelligence, wisdom, competence or criminality are all considered equally irrelevant. A majority vote is considered to be the “will of the people” where “constitutions” are supposed to prevent excesses against minorities. But constitutions are subject to the same majority vote. One hundred and one idiots take precedence over one hundred wiser men. And we inevitably get the politicians that universal suffrage deserves. This democracy and its universal suffrage needs also to be tempered by merit. But meritocracy smacks of elitism and no self-respecting socialist could tolerate that.

Universal Suffrage which ignores merit has led to the Lowest Common Factor becoming what counts and not the Highest Common Multiple that is being sought. And that was not, I think , what Lincoln intended.

Perhaps what is needed is a differential vote. Every one would have a basic vote but extra fractions of a vote could be earned for merit – for intelligence, for service, for wealth creation, … . It is probably time for “democracy” to shift towards a “meritocracy”.

 

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Hillary Clinton’s tweeter doesn’t understand Venn diagrams

May 22, 2016

I don’t suppose Hillary Clinton does it herself. I am sure she has a small army of bright young tweeters to help her engage socially.

This is the meaningless (to be kind – but incredibly stupid to be accurate) Venn diagram she tweeted about gun control.

clinton tweet

clinton tweet

The US has a population of 324 million (April 2016) and an adult population of about 240 million. Only about 160 million are registered to vote. Perhaps about 120 million will vote in the November election. So the next President will be elected with about 60 million votes (less than 20% of the population he or she will represent).

Surely the US could have produced two better candidates then Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

 

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Superman could never be a part of humanity

May 22, 2016

Humanity – as applying to the human species – is something more than just the 7 billion individuals alive today or even the 110 billion (or so) members of homo sapiens who have ever lived. Humanity must include the 4 babies being born every second. It must include all those who have ever been, or will come to be, “human”. Any definition of humanity must transcend time. For any individual, to be “human” it is is not a case of just falling within a certain envelope of physical and cognitive characteristics, but must also include the individual’s behaviour.

Our genes determine our physical and cognitive capabilities – our potential. Nurture then determines how these are expressed in each individual case. While our genes may not determine specific, individual behaviour, they do define the envelope of all possible behaviours available to an individual. It is our genes which define the envelope of all possible human characteristics and also the envelope of all possible human behaviour.

The envelope of all possible human behaviour will – must – include all behaviour that many would consider “inhumane”. Hitler or Pol Pot or Breivik or ISIS fanatics are or were undoubtedly human, but their behaviour was or is “inhumane”. Their “inhumanity” does not remove them from the body of anydefinition of humanity. If not, it would mean that there could be some humans who – on account of their behaviour – were not part of humanity. That, I think, would be a contradiction in itself. Equally, if some entity exhibited behaviour which fell within the envelope of all possible human behaviour, but fell outside the envelope of physical and cognitive characteristics, then that entity would not be part of humanity.

Humanity

The paradox is that what we call “crimes against humanity” are, in fact, part of humanity. Inhumane behaviour is an integral part of humanity.

If we wish to exclude certain types of behaviour from humanity, the inescapable conclusion is that we have to eliminate or modify the genes which allow the unwanted behaviour. But our physical characteristics and our behaviour are dependent upon the same genes. And if genetic engineering to change behaviour was possible, it would also mean that our physical and cognitive abilities would inevitably change.

Superman might pretend to be human but he could never be a part of any definition of humanity.

 

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If you put children in Parliament, you must expect temper tantrums

May 20, 2016

Justin Trudeau’s #elbowgate is extensively covered by all the press.

But why the indignation?

Quelle surprise.

The Guardian:

Canada’s normally staid House of Commons erupted into chaos on Wednesday, after the visibly annoyed Trudeau marched into a group of MPs, grabbed Conservative Gordon Brown by the arm and led him out of the group.

Parliamentarians were waiting to vote on a controversial motion from the Liberals to limit debate on assisted suicide legislation. The vote was delayed while several New Democrat MPs gathered around Brown, seemingly impeding him from taking his place.

Trudeau swore as he strode toward Brown, reportedly telling MPs to “get the fuck out of the way”. Footage from the House of Commons showed Trudeau elbowing New Democrat Ruth Ellen Brosseau as he pulled Brown away from the group.

elbowgate

elbowgate

Pretty children – especially those who know they are pretty – are prone to temper tantrums. It does not change just because they are in parliament. His admirer’s and apologists are hard at work trivialising his outburst. And like all spoilt children, he will probably get away with it.

 

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100 years on and Boetcker’s 10 cannots are still valid

May 19, 2016

John Henry Boetcker’s (1873  – 1962) 10 cannots were first published in 1916. Some of his ten are often attributed in error to Abraham Lincoln. And they are just as valid today as they were then. They are more widely applicable today and especially for all the developing countries who need – above all – to ensure sufficient growth to fulfill the aspirations of their billions.

You cannot

  1. bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
  2. strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
  3. help little men by tearing down big men.
  4. lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.
  5. help the poor by destroying the rich.
  6. establish sound security on borrowed money.
  7. further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
  8. keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn.
  9. build character and courage by destroying men’s initiative and independence.
  10. help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.

 

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Posted in Philosophy, Politics | 1 Comment »

Washington Post “promotes” video of Clinton lying

May 19, 2016

That somebody has made a montage of clips about Hillary Clinton’s untruthful statements over a number of years is not – in itself – so newsworthy or surprising. A Youtube video was posted in January this year. That such a video is promoted by the Drudge report is also not very surprising.

But I think it is a little surprising that the Washington Post (via Kathleen Parker) has helped this video to go viral is a little surprising. That a similar video of Donald Trump could be produced is certain. But why would the WaPo effectively help the Trump camp? Why now? The WaPo oped certainly has reached parts of the Democratic body corpus that other beers cannot reach. Of course the WaPo is far to the left of Hillary Clinton and they will do what they can to help Bernie Sanders. But even Sanders’ most ardent supporters cannot give him much of a chance.

Hillary Clinton’s vast resume of, shall we say, inconsistencies, is the dog that caught the car and won’t let go. A viral video collection of her comments on various subjects through the years is bestirring Republican hearts.

To those who’d rather vote for a reality show host than a Clinton, the video merely confirms what they’ve believed all along. For independents and even Democrats, it’s a reminder of how often Clinton has morphed into a fresh incarnation as required by the political moment.

Most of the highlights would be familiar to anyone who follows politics — her varying takes on Bosnia, health care, Wall Street, NAFTA — but the juxtaposition of these ever-shifting views is more jarring than one might expect. Politicians count on Americans’ short attention spans (and memories) as much as they do their own policies and/or charms. This video (https://youtu.be/-dY77j6uBHI), inartfully titled “Hillary Clinton lying for 13 minutes straight,” clarifies blurred recollections and recasts them in an order that, among other things, reminds us how long the Clintons have been around.

The video is worth watching in its own right: Hillary Clinton lying for 13 minutes straight

 

 

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